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Let's analyze Lars Eller

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Old
01-22-2013, 05:52 AM
  #1
DAChampion
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Let's analyze Lars Eller

I notice that a lot of people on these boards think that Eller will never be better than a 3rd line center on the basis that he only got 28 points last year playing with bad linemates against tough opposition and with limited ice time.

I will try and get the conversation started. I believe that the above premise is false, that Eller in fact has the potential to be a good player, a respectable 2nd line center comparable to Plekanec in effectiveness. I'll post some stats and I hope some of the experts post better ones.

23 year-old Lars Eller is improving.:

In 2010-2011, he had 829 minutes of ES time during which he scored 7 goals and 10 assists, and 22 minutes of PP time during which he scored 0 goals and 0 assists.

In 2011-2012, he had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists, and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

His power play production went up by a factor of infinity, I won't comment more as the sample size is too small.

His ES production is up, from one point every 49 minutes to one point every 46 minutes. It looks like a non-change, but the points are of a higher quality. Before 41% of his points were goals, now it's 54%. Further, he had a tougher time in 2011-2012. His Corsi QoC as defined by BehindTheNet.ca rose from -0.219 to +0.429 (huge difference), his "Corsi Rel QoC" went from -0.169 to +0.570 (huge difference again), and his offensive zone start percentage went from 51.6% down to 48.3%.

Basically, his even-strength offensive production went up by 5%, but with a higher goals-to-assists ratio, with slightly fewer offensive zone starts, and against substantially higher competition.

Moreover, his faceoff percentage went from 42.4% to 46.6%, a significant improvement.

His penalty killing also "improved". He played 7 minutes on the PK in 2010-2011, to 134 shorthanded minutes in 2011-2012. I'll talk about it more later.

His performance relative to Plekanec and Desharnais is not as bad as people think.

In 2011-2012, Eller had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists. with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.429, and offensive zone start of 48.3%; and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

In 2011-2012, Plekanec had 1170 minutes of ES time during which he scored 9 goals and 19 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.727, and offensive zone start of 42.8%; and 250 minutes of PP time during which he scored 5 goals and 13 assists.

In 2011-2012, Desharnais had 1186 minutes of ES time during which he scored 13 goals and 27 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.007, and offensive zone start of 52.2%; and 266 minutes of PP time during which he scored 3 goals and 17 assists.

Eller's PP production is the worst in total points, though the statistical significance is... close to zero. He also has the worst assist production at ES, but he played on a line with Rene Bourque and Travis Moen so this is very hard to evaluate. I don't know how to evaluate assists... Desharnais has more assists, but he plays on a line with Pacioretty. Career shooting percentages:

Pacioretty: 0.100, but 0.120 in the past two seasons.
Cole: 0.129
****************
Moen: 0.800
Bourque: 0.114

On the other hand Plekanec also played with Brad Staubitz, Ryan White, etc. However, we all know that as of right now Plekanec has the superior playmaking abilities of the three, that's no secret.

We can't compare power play time, and we can't compare assists, the only thing we can compare is goals at ES.

Eller scores one goal every 85 minutes, Plekanec scored 1 goal every 130 minutes, and Desharnais scored one goal every 91 minutes.

Eller's situation in terms of linemates, zone starts, and quality of competition is vastly more difficult than Desharnais', and vastly less difficult than Plekanec's; however, he comes out slightly ahead of DD in goal production at ES, with both vastly ahead of Plekanec, who is not given the opportunity to score. Here we can say that Eller is clearly superior to Desharnais, though we cannot make the comparison to Plekanec.

********************

A point of concern I find though is that Eller takes many bad penalties. He draws 0.8 penalties per 60 minutes... but he takes 1.3 penalties per 60 minutes. That's a difference of 0.5 penalties per 60 minutes. He needs to be either more annoying or more disciplined.

Discuss.

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Old
01-22-2013, 06:07 AM
  #2
Frank Doby
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Good stats, thanks for the research. It is impressive.

However, for Bergevin and Therrien, Eller has to been better this year. He has to elevate his play and to give more to the Canadiens. He can and should do better. This year is a crucial one for him. It is now a battle between him and Galcheniuck for the third center post in the lineup. If the latter is better, Eller will play as a winger. If he do not show enough on the ice to the Canadien management, he will be traded during or at the end of the year. This team do not need two centers for the third line.

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01-22-2013, 06:58 AM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I notice that a lot of people on these boards think that Eller will never be better than a 3rd line center on the basis that he only got 28 points last year playing with bad linemates against tough opposition and with limited ice time.

I will try and get the conversation started. I believe that the above premise is false, that Eller in fact has the potential to be a good player, a respectable 2nd line center comparable to Plekanec in effectiveness. I'll post some stats and I hope some of the experts post better ones.

23 year-old Lars Eller is improving.:

In 2010-2011, he had 829 minutes of ES time during which he scored 7 goals and 10 assists, and 22 minutes of PP time during which he scored 0 goals and 0 assists.

In 2011-2012, he had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists, and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

His power play production went up by a factor of infinity, I won't comment more as the sample size is too small.
C'mon, you divided by 0. If Eller got 10000000000 min of PP time and 1 point, it would still go up by a factor of infinity.

Quote:
His ES production is up, from one point every 49 minutes to one point every 46 minutes. It looks like a non-change, but the points are of a higher quality. Before 41% of his points were goals, now it's 54%. Further, he had a tougher time in 2011-2012. His Corsi QoC as defined by BehindTheNet.ca rose from -0.219 to +0.429 (huge difference), his "Corsi Rel QoC" went from -0.169 to +0.570 (huge difference again), and his offensive zone start percentage went from 51.6% down to 48.3%.

Basically, his even-strength offensive production went up by 5%, but with a higher goals-to-assists ratio, with slightly fewer offensive zone starts, and against substantially higher competition.

Moreover, his faceoff percentage went from 42.4% to 46.6%, a significant improvement.

His penalty killing also "improved". He played 7 minutes on the PK in 2010-2011, to 134 shorthanded minutes in 2011-2012. I'll talk about it more later.
There's no denying the kid is improving. Solid work ethic and good player. At same time, some of the percentages are minor variances in the big scheme of things. Eller had a 4 goal night. It skews data a bit but even if you remove that one game he'd have 12 goals out of 24 points which is still an increase from 41% to 50% so maybe there is something to be said.

Speaking outside of statistics, I like his shot but I find he takes too long to release it. I wish he'd practice his release timing because he could score even more.

Quote:
His performance relative to Plekanec and Desharnais is not as bad as people think.

In 2011-2012, Eller had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists. with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.429, and offensive zone start of 48.3%; and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

In 2011-2012, Plekanec had 1170 minutes of ES time during which he scored 9 goals and 19 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.727, and offensive zone start of 42.8%; and 250 minutes of PP time during which he scored 5 goals and 13 assists.

In 2011-2012, Desharnais had 1186 minutes of ES time during which he scored 13 goals and 27 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.007, and offensive zone start of 52.2%; and 266 minutes of PP time during which he scored 3 goals and 17 assists.

Eller's PP production is the worst in total points, though the statistical significance is... close to zero. He also has the worst assist production at ES, but he played on a line with Rene Bourque and Travis Moen so this is very hard to evaluate. I don't know how to evaluate assists... Desharnais has more assists, but he plays on a line with Pacioretty. Career shooting percentages:

Pacioretty: 0.100, but 0.120 in the past two seasons.
Cole: 0.129
****************
Moen: 0.800
Bourque: 0.114

On the other hand Plekanec also played with Brad Staubitz, Ryan White, etc. However, we all know that as of right now Plekanec has the superior playmaking abilities of the three, that's no secret.

We can't compare power play time, and we can't compare assists, the only thing we can compare is goals at ES.

Eller scores one goal every 85 minutes, Plekanec scored 1 goal every 130 minutes, and Desharnais scored one goal every 91 minutes.

Eller's situation in terms of linemates, zone starts, and quality of competition is vastly more difficult than Desharnais', and vastly less difficult than Plekanec's; however, he comes out slightly ahead of DD in goal production at ES, with both vastly ahead of Plekanec, who is not given the opportunity to score. Here we can say that Eller is clearly superior to Desharnais, though we cannot make the comparison to Plekanec..
I assume you mean 0.08 for moen. I also am unsure whether to say Plekanec has best playmaking abilities out of the 3. I think Desharnais should be in consideration.

What I don't understand is you can't say "I don't know how to evaluate assists" and then proceed to ignore it. Am I wrong to say your analysis is biased in that respect? I certainly don't blame you as it is a tough thing to evaluate but at same time, what about burrows on a line with the Sedins? Or Taylor Pyatt or Anson Carter before him? Both doubled their average goal output playing with the sedins so the presence of a strong playmaker can skew stats as well.

Of course, Bourque and Moen or whoever aren't elite playmakers or really known for that skill. However, by the same token neither are max or cole. What makes it difficult to evaluate is playing style. I believe Desharnais would have more assists with Bourque and Moen than Eller would simply because of playing styles. So here we're penalizing a playmaker. At same time, Eller would probably have more goals with Cole and max than Desharnais did, simply because of how they play and their respective strengths.

So, perhaps a balanced approach, going for points? Even that is skewed but doesn't hurt right?

In 2011-2012, Eller had 1023.25 minutes of ES time where he made 22 points. He makes an ES point every 46.51 minutes of ES playing time.

In 2011-2012, Desharnais had 1186.43 minutes of ES time where he made 40 points. He makes an ES point every 29.66 minutes of ES playing time.

In 2011-2012, Plekanec had 1169.66 minutes of ES time where he made 28 points. He makes an ES point every 41.77 minutes of ES playing time.

Here, DD comes out on top. Even as a person who likes DD, this may not be fair. It suggests ES he's a much superior player to Eller and Plekanec offensively. It should come as no surprise, he IS an offensive player afterall, dominating every league he's played in but he certainly had a good situation around him.

If we look at another evaluation, how about shooting % in 2011-12 vs career average?

Cole(Last year vs career)
14.5%-12.8%

Pacioretty(Last year vs career)
11.5%-9.9%

Another evaluation might be how many scoring chances the particular player might get. For instance, a good playmaker would find the open man, increasing his time to get a shot off and in turn likely increasing his shot/goal output.

In terms of goals per 82 games:

Cole(Last year vs career)
35-25.54

Pacioretty(Last year vs career)
34.25-21.41

Finally, shots taken per 82 games:

Cole(Last year vs career)
241-198.76

Pacioretty(Last year vs career)
296.86-214.90

That being said, Pacioretty's sample isn't very solid to me. Not enough GP, only one full NHL season and only recently emerged as a top 6 forward. I would not even include it but for sake of discussion, I put the numbers up there incase anyone is curious.

I personally don't like statistics. I do it in my degree all the time but I don't like it. You can remove or add as many variables you like in order to say anything. It's never some linear trend. Not everything will go up in a good year and not everything will go down in a bad year. There's always something you can include or exclude that can change perspective. I'm aware of this and that's why I don't like it.

Quote:
A point of concern I find though is that Eller takes many bad penalties. He draws 0.8 penalties per 60 minutes... but he takes 1.3 penalties per 60 minutes. That's a difference of 0.5 penalties per 60 minutes. He needs to be either more annoying or more disciplined.

Discuss.
I don't have the penalties drawn stat but subban has a lot of penalties too. In Eller's defense last year was probably extremely frustrating for everyone on that team. They will learn from it and grow from it.

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Old
01-22-2013, 07:05 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I notice that a lot of people on these boards think that Eller will never be better than a 3rd line center on the basis that he only got 28 points last year playing with bad linemates against tough opposition and with limited ice time.
My basis for doubting is more qualitative. I just don't find that he ever settles into a consistent groove where all of his game is clicking in synch... part of it can indeed be put down (for now) to not having consistent lines, his overall utilization and lack of opportunity. But at the same time, there are gaps in the way he reads the game so far too. I'm not sure what people are really expecting from him, but my upside hope is kind of something in the ballpark of Zubrus. Maybe he came in with some higher offensive expectations, and maybe in his better seasons he gets 20 goals or 50 points, but I still think his niche will be in settling into a more consistent medium. Whether that's 2nd or 3rd line maybe depends on the team he's on more than much else. Let's say I *hope* he's a 3rd liner for the Habs, then.

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01-22-2013, 07:11 AM
  #5
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Congrats for your research.

However, there's a French expression for what you just did : « Enfonçer une porte ouverte ». It also seems to me that you're « Preaching to the choir ».

This board knows Eller is improving, and his performance relative to DD and Plekanec is as bad as it may appear. If anything, this Board is about the place where Lars Eller is the most appreciated in the entire Habs fanbase. Actually, some of us are so much Eller fanbois, it ain't even funny.

I keep my word regarding Eller. He's a pretty good 3rd C at this point. While it would be awesome for him to jump in the lineup, it would also mean we get weaker as a whole.




Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I notice that a lot of people on these boards think that Eller will never be better than a 3rd line center on the basis that he only got 28 points last year playing with bad linemates against tough opposition and with limited ice time.

I will try and get the conversation started. I believe that the above premise is false, that Eller in fact has the potential to be a good player, a respectable 2nd line center comparable to Plekanec in effectiveness. I'll post some stats and I hope some of the experts post better ones.

23 year-old Lars Eller is improving.:

In 2010-2011, he had 829 minutes of ES time during which he scored 7 goals and 10 assists, and 22 minutes of PP time during which he scored 0 goals and 0 assists.

In 2011-2012, he had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists, and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

His power play production went up by a factor of infinity, I won't comment more as the sample size is too small.

His ES production is up, from one point every 49 minutes to one point every 46 minutes. It looks like a non-change, but the points are of a higher quality. Before 41% of his points were goals, now it's 54%. Further, he had a tougher time in 2011-2012. His Corsi QoC as defined by BehindTheNet.ca rose from -0.219 to +0.429 (huge difference), his "Corsi Rel QoC" went from -0.169 to +0.570 (huge difference again), and his offensive zone start percentage went from 51.6% down to 48.3%.

Basically, his even-strength offensive production went up by 5%, but with a higher goals-to-assists ratio, with slightly fewer offensive zone starts, and against substantially higher competition.

Moreover, his faceoff percentage went from 42.4% to 46.6%, a significant improvement.

His penalty killing also "improved". He played 7 minutes on the PK in 2010-2011, to 134 shorthanded minutes in 2011-2012. I'll talk about it more later.

His performance relative to Plekanec and Desharnais is not as bad as people think.

In 2011-2012, Eller had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists. with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.429, and offensive zone start of 48.3%; and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

In 2011-2012, Plekanec had 1170 minutes of ES time during which he scored 9 goals and 19 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.727, and offensive zone start of 42.8%; and 250 minutes of PP time during which he scored 5 goals and 13 assists.

In 2011-2012, Desharnais had 1186 minutes of ES time during which he scored 13 goals and 27 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.007, and offensive zone start of 52.2%; and 266 minutes of PP time during which he scored 3 goals and 17 assists.

Eller's PP production is the worst in total points, though the statistical significance is... close to zero. He also has the worst assist production at ES, but he played on a line with Rene Bourque and Travis Moen so this is very hard to evaluate. I don't know how to evaluate assists... Desharnais has more assists, but he plays on a line with Pacioretty. Career shooting percentages:

Pacioretty: 0.100, but 0.120 in the past two seasons.
Cole: 0.129
****************
Moen: 0.800
Bourque: 0.114

On the other hand Plekanec also played with Brad Staubitz, Ryan White, etc. However, we all know that as of right now Plekanec has the superior playmaking abilities of the three, that's no secret.

We can't compare power play time, and we can't compare assists, the only thing we can compare is goals at ES.

Eller scores one goal every 85 minutes, Plekanec scored 1 goal every 130 minutes, and Desharnais scored one goal every 91 minutes.

Eller's situation in terms of linemates, zone starts, and quality of competition is vastly more difficult than Desharnais', and vastly less difficult than Plekanec's; however, he comes out slightly ahead of DD in goal production at ES, with both vastly ahead of Plekanec, who is not given the opportunity to score. Here we can say that Eller is clearly superior to Desharnais, though we cannot make the comparison to Plekanec.

********************

A point of concern I find though is that Eller takes many bad penalties. He draws 0.8 penalties per 60 minutes... but he takes 1.3 penalties per 60 minutes. That's a difference of 0.5 penalties per 60 minutes. He needs to be either more annoying or more disciplined.

Discuss.

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01-22-2013, 07:20 AM
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01-22-2013, 07:43 AM
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The organization needs to give him consistent wingers and leave him at either centre or wing permanently.

His whole time here he's been moved back and forth from centre and wing and has had a revolving door of linemates which makes it impossible for him to gain any time of chemistry with.

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01-22-2013, 07:45 AM
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"" Eller in fact has the potential to be a good player ""

That I do agree with , what I question is, does he have the drive and desire to live up
to that potential. Sometimes its not all about ice time, pp time, ice time will come if he
could just show the spark and take full advantage of the ice time he get's to show his
stuff. I would love to see Lars score 30-40 goals and use that frame of his to drive net
much like cole does.
Certainly would help to even up that deal for Halak !!!

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01-22-2013, 08:13 AM
  #9
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Eller has the size, speed, skill and shows flashes of the offensive awareness, but no matter how you analyze, the fact of the matter is he hasn't been consistent. in the habs home opener... he was invisible, even with Moen (has had good chemistry in the past) and Bourque (offensive player). I don't think it warranted a benching, but Eller is very inconsistent with his offensive game, and as soon as he proves he can be an offensive threat game in and game out like pleks and DD showed, then he will likely move up to the top 6.

right now Eller is the 3rd most offensive center on the habs

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01-22-2013, 08:22 AM
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01-22-2013, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by 2 Chainz View Post
The organization needs to give him consistent wingers and leave him at either centre or wing permanently.

His whole time here he's been moved back and forth from centre and wing and has had a revolving door of linemates which makes it impossible for him to gain any time of chemistry with.
I agree with the linemats thing, last yaer he had pretty crappy linemates in general, but taht was by necessity not by choice with Gionta and Moen out a big chunk of the year.

I don't see a big deal going from center to wing at times, he played 75-80% at center, playing a few games on the wing shouldn't derail a players season or career. It's different for about 70 feet in the defensive zone, offensively a winger can play a center role(St.Louis) and a center can play the wing role(Stamkos).

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01-22-2013, 08:41 AM
  #12
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Like I said in another post, I don't know if Eller is a dud, 3rd liner or top 6. What I do know is he seemed to show offensive ability when he had a skilled winger with speed in AK, a guy he could give and go with on the rush. In order to give Eller a chance to show what he can do offensively I think he needs a player like AK this year, not a Bourque kind of player who would be more complimentary to more skilled linemates. Without that kind of AK player I don't think we will see any big leaps in Eller's game, which means he will likely be dumped on. If he played with a skilled winger and didn't improve then I would say we gave him his shot and he likely looks like a 3rd liner, without giving him the chance to play with a guy like that then we aren't developing him properly.

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01-22-2013, 08:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I notice that a lot of people on these boards think that Eller will never be better than a 3rd line center on the basis that he only got 28 points last year playing with bad linemates against tough opposition and with limited ice time.

I will try and get the conversation started. I believe that the above premise is false, that Eller in fact has the potential to be a good player, a respectable 2nd line center comparable to Plekanec in effectiveness. I'll post some stats and I hope some of the experts post better ones.

23 year-old Lars Eller is improving.:

In 2010-2011, he had 829 minutes of ES time during which he scored 7 goals and 10 assists, and 22 minutes of PP time during which he scored 0 goals and 0 assists.

In 2011-2012, he had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists, and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

His power play production went up by a factor of infinity, I won't comment more as the sample size is too small.

His ES production is up, from one point every 49 minutes to one point every 46 minutes. It looks like a non-change, but the points are of a higher quality. Before 41% of his points were goals, now it's 54%. Further, he had a tougher time in 2011-2012. His Corsi QoC as defined by BehindTheNet.ca rose from -0.219 to +0.429 (huge difference), his "Corsi Rel QoC" went from -0.169 to +0.570 (huge difference again), and his offensive zone start percentage went from 51.6% down to 48.3%.

Basically, his even-strength offensive production went up by 5%, but with a higher goals-to-assists ratio, with slightly fewer offensive zone starts, and against substantially higher competition.

Moreover, his faceoff percentage went from 42.4% to 46.6%, a significant improvement.

His penalty killing also "improved". He played 7 minutes on the PK in 2010-2011, to 134 shorthanded minutes in 2011-2012. I'll talk about it more later.

His performance relative to Plekanec and Desharnais is not as bad as people think.

In 2011-2012, Eller had 1023 minutes of ES time during which he scored 12 goals and 10 assists. with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.429, and offensive zone start of 48.3%; and 52 minutes of PP time during which he scored 2 goals and 1 assists.

In 2011-2012, Plekanec had 1170 minutes of ES time during which he scored 9 goals and 19 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.727, and offensive zone start of 42.8%; and 250 minutes of PP time during which he scored 5 goals and 13 assists.

In 2011-2012, Desharnais had 1186 minutes of ES time during which he scored 13 goals and 27 assists, with an ES Corsi QoC of +0.007, and offensive zone start of 52.2%; and 266 minutes of PP time during which he scored 3 goals and 17 assists.

Eller's PP production is the worst in total points, though the statistical significance is... close to zero. He also has the worst assist production at ES, but he played on a line with Rene Bourque and Travis Moen so this is very hard to evaluate. I don't know how to evaluate assists... Desharnais has more assists, but he plays on a line with Pacioretty. Career shooting percentages:

Pacioretty: 0.100, but 0.120 in the past two seasons.
Cole: 0.129
****************
Moen: 0.800
Bourque: 0.114

On the other hand Plekanec also played with Brad Staubitz, Ryan White, etc. However, we all know that as of right now Plekanec has the superior playmaking abilities of the three, that's no secret.

We can't compare power play time, and we can't compare assists, the only thing we can compare is goals at ES.

Eller scores one goal every 85 minutes, Plekanec scored 1 goal every 130 minutes, and Desharnais scored one goal every 91 minutes.

Eller's situation in terms of linemates, zone starts, and quality of competition is vastly more difficult than Desharnais', and vastly less difficult than Plekanec's; however, he comes out slightly ahead of DD in goal production at ES, with both vastly ahead of Plekanec, who is not given the opportunity to score. Here we can say that Eller is clearly superior to Desharnais, though we cannot make the comparison to Plekanec.

********************

A point of concern I find though is that Eller takes many bad penalties. He draws 0.8 penalties per 60 minutes... but he takes 1.3 penalties per 60 minutes. That's a difference of 0.5 penalties per 60 minutes. He needs to be either more annoying or more disciplined.

Discuss.
I get a feeling hockey is different than baseball where number crunching is not as accurate. Sabremetrics has taken over in baseball but hockey so many more variables I feel the numbers may be misleading.

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01-22-2013, 08:47 AM
  #14
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I think we will never know just how good Eller can be until he is giving a fair shot at top 6.
He isn't Crosby, he won't make Prust or Moen into superstars.
I was listening to come clowns yesterday on TV say Eller needs to do something to deserve a spot on the top 6. He did that last year when he was playing really well with AK.
Consistency is always an issue with youngsters, even great ones (see PK).
But don't expect this kid to be more than a 3rd liner if that's all he gets, 3rd line duties.

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01-22-2013, 09:02 AM
  #15
Ghetto Sangria
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
I think we will never know just how good Eller can be until he is giving a fair shot at top 6.
He isn't Crosby, he won't make Prust or Moen into superstars.
I was listening to come clowns yesterday on TV say Eller needs to do something to deserve a spot on the top 6. He did that last year when he was playing really well with AK.
Consistency is always an issue with youngsters, even great ones (see PK).
But don't expect this kid to be more than a 3rd liner if that's all he gets, 3rd line duties.
He hasn't earned a spot over who is there ahead of him.

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01-22-2013, 09:12 AM
  #16
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When I first saw Eller I thought shades of Sundin. I remember him using his size a lot to protect the puck along the boards and thought he could really become a powerforward type of player. I realize now he doesn't have the raw skills of Sundin. But that aside, I think he doesn't use his strengths as effectively as he could. Someone above mentioned drive. I tend to agree but I call it more involvement. For a guy who can skate like that and has that size seems to me he could get in there and stir things up more, drive the net, get into dirty areas, make things happens etc. He just seems like he doesn't want to ruffle feathers to me. It's like someone needs to piss him off or something.

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01-22-2013, 09:15 AM
  #17
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Kostitsyn is missing on the wing.

Kostitsyn - Eller - Moen was a great line, with good chemistry!

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01-22-2013, 09:23 AM
  #18
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He hasn't earned a spot over who is there ahead of him.
People have to stop with this ''earning'' garbage excuse.
You have a young asset you're trying to develop and determine whether or not he's got the upside you hoped he has. It's time to actually manage things. That doesn't mean he will steal anybody's place, you do that because you want to increase his value.
Imagine Eller does just as well as DD in the top 6. Well, then you know for a fact that you have three centers that can play in the top 6. It increases trade value.
In the end, it's only better for the team.

But you don't even have to give him top 6 duties. What you can do is start giving him some PP time. See how he can handle the puck and create plays. Does DD absolutely needs to play with both MaxPac and Cole, at ES and on the PP??? No. So mix things up, whatever way possible, just put Eller there. I certainly wouldn't mind having 4 Forwards on the PP if it means not seeing Gorges or Bouillon there.

Galchenyuk practiced as the third line center, from what the lines looked like, it seems Eller might be scratched. Did Gally earned to play that spot over Eller?
No he didn't.
When Komisarek played here, he wasn't playing all that well. Yet he was moved on Markov's side and they formed a great duo. He hadn't earned anything.
Price never earned much here, everybody was tossed to the side for him.

So, spare that old cliché excuse. It's the perfect way to under develop prospects.

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01-22-2013, 09:30 AM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HabsProspectsExpert View Post
Kostitsyn is missing on the wing.

Kostitsyn - Eller - Moen was a great line, with good chemistry!
big line too. but that's the way she goes...

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01-22-2013, 09:38 AM
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-He's in his 3rd season.
-He's trended upwards each year.
-He's only 22 and his upside was as a potential 2nd line C that can play a similar game to Plekanec.
-He is a good 3C right now


If he is given more PP time, or even more quality Ice time he'd show more, but right now it seems he's being slowly integrated.

IF MTL trades away a Centre (DD or Pleks) he'd see that ice time increased and may reach close to that potential this year.


IMHO he's going to be an excellent 3rd line C, shutdown guy with an offensive output close to 40-45 pts per year.

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01-22-2013, 09:39 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
People have to stop with this ''earning'' garbage excuse.
You have a young asset you're trying to develop and determine whether or not he's got the upside you hoped he has. It's time to actually manage things. That doesn't mean he will steal anybody's place, you do that because you want to increase his value.
Imagine Eller does just as well as DD in the top 6. Well, then you know for a fact that you have three centers that can play in the top 6. It increases trade value.
In the end, it's only better for the team.

But you don't even have to give him top 6 duties. What you can do is start giving him some PP time. See how he can handle the puck and create plays. Does DD absolutely needs to play with both MaxPac and Cole, at ES and on the PP??? No. So mix things up, whatever way possible, just put Eller there. I certainly wouldn't mind having 4 Forwards on the PP if it means not seeing Gorges or Bouillon there.

Galchenyuk practiced as the third line center, from what the lines looked like, it seems Eller might be scratched. Did Gally earned to play that spot over Eller?
No he didn't.
When Komisarek played here, he wasn't playing all that well. Yet he was moved on Markov's side and they formed a great duo. He hadn't earned anything.
Price never earned much here, everybody was tossed to the side for him.

So, spare that old cliché excuse. It's the perfect way to under develop prospects.
Eller has been given top 6 opportunities playing on Pleks' wing last season. It was so forgettable that you don't even seem to remember it. When there are injuries, Eller will be relied on to step up... right now (although Therrien seems to disagree) I think Eller is doing a great job on the 3rd line and on the PK. Give him an offensive winger and Moen to balance out that 3rd line.

Eller is learning every aspect of the game. He hasn't shown consistent offensive awareness just like Kostitsyn didn't... and wow he was such a great top 6 player wasn't he!? His opportunity will come, and he's one of my favorite players, I think he'll surprise some people. Not sure it's going to be this year, but I think he will become a bigger plekanec (who earned his spot... so spare me the cliche excuses... examples can be given out on both sides).

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01-22-2013, 10:11 AM
  #22
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It's still hard to say which Eller will eventually become the real one. Is it the confident, more-aggressive forward who could become a 50-point threat, or is it the more tentative forward with the slower reaction time?

One thing -- he did very well in the face-off circle on Saturday. A good sign.

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01-22-2013, 10:35 AM
  #23
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Hard to analyze him on the bench. Therrien.

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01-22-2013, 10:40 AM
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Second pp unit along with Gally Bourque and Plekanec wouldn't be a bad thing maybe or put up 4 forwards and put Eller on the point. I think he could be good on the point he has good composure with the puck and an above average vision. Plus his shot is not that bad and he is big.

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01-22-2013, 10:44 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
People have to stop with this ''earning'' garbage excuse.
You have a young asset you're trying to develop and determine whether or not he's got the upside you hoped he has. It's time to actually manage things. That doesn't mean he will steal anybody's place, you do that because you want to increase his value.
Imagine Eller does just as well as DD in the top 6. Well, then you know for a fact that you have three centers that can play in the top 6. It increases trade value.
In the end, it's only better for the team.

But you don't even have to give him top 6 duties. What you can do is start giving him some PP time. See how he can handle the puck and create plays. Does DD absolutely needs to play with both MaxPac and Cole, at ES and on the PP??? No. So mix things up, whatever way possible, just put Eller there. I certainly wouldn't mind having 4 Forwards on the PP if it means not seeing Gorges or Bouillon there.

Galchenyuk practiced as the third line center, from what the lines looked like, it seems Eller might be scratched. Did Gally earned to play that spot over Eller?
No he didn't.
When Komisarek played here, he wasn't playing all that well. Yet he was moved on Markov's side and they formed a great duo. He hadn't earned anything.
Price never earned much here, everybody was tossed to the side for him.

So, spare that old cliché excuse. It's the perfect way to under develop prospects.
I agree here, you need to put players in position to succeed. Eller should be given more time with better linemates.

Player development isn't a perfect science though...sometimes a player has to make the most of an opportunity as well.

But again, I think Eller is capable of being like Pleks if he was given the time.

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