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Let's analyze Lars Eller

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Old
01-22-2013, 11:00 AM
  #26
Et le But
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Originally Posted by Mats86 View Post
I get a feeling hockey is different than baseball where number crunching is not as accurate. Sabremetrics has taken over in baseball but hockey so many more variables I feel the numbers may be misleading.
This needs a response from MathMan or Talk to Goalposts.

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01-22-2013, 11:22 AM
  #27
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He's had shoulder problems the last two years. Clearly he's put in the gym time this summer. He's a LOT stronger on the puck and showed some glimpses of what he can do against the Leafs. He needs a linemate and Prust and he'll have a solid season and be ready for the step up to the top 6 afterwards.

Desharnais has to be our third line center or not on the team if we are going to be a contender. That's my opinion.

Plekanec is one of the better 2nd line centers in the league and a decent 1B choice judging by how he shut down Crosby in the playoffs.

If Eller can fill that second line, Galchenyuk can be placed on the wing next year and concentrate on shooting the puck.

We can't continue to have Desharnais, Plekanec, Gionta, and now Gallagher, Kristo, etc... all these little guys if they are not elite. Because that doesn't translate to playoff hockey.

Clearly Bergevin is going with the farm and waiting for Tinordi to win that badly needed big man slot, so I expect him to stick with Eller through his development. Gomez was probably the safe choice for this season now that he's healthy, but he chose Eller's development as a priority. Wise move.

I have no problem with Therrien kicking Eller in the ass. He's obviously not a shrinking violet and that seems to be what he needs at this point, not cradling.


Last edited by tinyzombies: 01-22-2013 at 11:35 AM.
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01-22-2013, 11:40 AM
  #28
LePoche69
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Lars Eller

Good size and weight
Above average skater
Slightly above average shot
Average shot accuracy
Above average puck control
Below average passer
Below average vision
Below average hockey sense
Average agressivness
Below average intensity
Average in the corners (1 vs 1)
Slightly above average PK specialist
Average defensively
Power Play specialist = Unknown

That's about it. We should stop hoping for a second liner, except if he develops on the wing. He doesn't have what it takes to play at center (passing, vision, sense)

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01-22-2013, 11:53 AM
  #29
tinyzombies
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Originally Posted by LePoche69 View Post
Lars Eller

Good size and weight
Above average skater
Slightly above average shot
Average shot accuracy
Above average puck control
Below average passer
Below average vision
Below average hockey sense
Average agressivness
Below average intensity
Average in the corners (1 vs 1)
Slightly above average PK specialist
Average defensively
Power Play specialist = Unknown

That's about it. We should stop hoping for a second liner, except if he develops on the wing. He doesn't have what it takes to play at center (passing, vision, sense)
I think it's too early to tell about strength and faceoffs. I think you're right though, he could be a complimentary winger on the second line unless he starts trending into his potential as a puck possession center. He showed flashes against the Leafs.

I don't like the idea of Galchenyuk at center though. We need snipes. He'd be a ridiculously creative centerman though, clearly.


Last edited by tinyzombies: 01-22-2013 at 12:00 PM.
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Old
01-22-2013, 12:01 PM
  #30
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I would like to see Lars Eller play with Cole and Pacioretti, just for a couple games to see how he create with good wingers. He had good chemistry with Kostitsyn but was never left alone. It's as if they are not making any effort to find a good fit for Eller. It's like he is not priority for the organization. He needs good wingers or he needs to be traded to where he can play.

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01-22-2013, 12:12 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Craig71 View Post
I would like to see Lars Eller play with Cole and Pacioretti, just for a couple games to see how he create with good wingers. He had good chemistry with Kostitsyn but was never left alone. It's as if they are not making any effort to find a good fit for Eller. It's like he is not priority for the organization. He needs good wingers or he needs to be traded to where he can play.
Desharnais won his place between Pacioretty and Cole by showing his ability to create plays and by feeding his linemates on a constant basis; he had to work a lot and he had to fight for his chances, which he did through good play. Why should Habs simply hand his place to Eller? When did he showed any ability to play with such wingers? After 3 seasons, Eller would allready have shown his ability to center a line, no matter his linemates. The fact is that he never did it because he doesn't have the hockey sense to do so.

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01-22-2013, 12:20 PM
  #32
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this guy is vastly overrated.

his 4 goal game got people overexcited.

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01-22-2013, 12:24 PM
  #33
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Eller has no future in Montreal. He is too good for the third line and not enough good to play in the top 6. He is a trade bait in a package deal for a top 3 dman or a top 6 winger.

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01-22-2013, 12:27 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Team_Spirit View Post
this guy is vastly overrated.

his 4 goal game got people overexcited.
He was 5th on the team at even strength scoring last year while averaging the 8th most even strength TOI among forwards. He had AK as his best winger intermittently. Maybe he's underrated.

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01-22-2013, 12:52 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Mario Lemieux fan 66 View Post
Eller has no future in Montreal. He is too good for the third line and not enough good to play in the top 6. He is a trade bait in a package deal for a top 3 dman or a top 6 winger.
If he's traded to another team, he will also play on a third line. That's his ceiling.

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01-22-2013, 12:58 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Dirty Danglez View Post
Eller has been given top 6 opportunities playing on Pleks' wing last season. It was so forgettable that you don't even seem to remember it. When there are injuries, Eller will be relied on to step up... right now (although Therrien seems to disagree) I think Eller is doing a great job on the 3rd line and on the PK. Give him an offensive winger and Moen to balance out that 3rd line.

Eller is learning every aspect of the game. He hasn't shown consistent offensive awareness just like Kostitsyn didn't... and wow he was such a great top 6 player wasn't he!? His opportunity will come, and he's one of my favorite players, I think he'll surprise some people. Not sure it's going to be this year, but I think he will become a bigger plekanec (who earned his spot... so spare me the cliche excuses... examples can be given out on both sides).
I actually I do remember on Plekanec's wing, if I remember correctly, he didn't even finish the game there. That's how big of an opportunity he got.
It was on the wings, where he isn't used to playing and Plek's line gets the tougher assignments.

I don't think it's cliché excuse to say that if you want a player to become a top 6 player, you need to give him top 6 wingers and top 6 ice time.
Not sure how anybody would disagree here.

But as I said, I don't care that he doesn't get top 6 minutes, or pairing. They want to use him as 3rd line center, fine, but give him PP ice time at least.
Also, Therrien said it's a make or break year for Eller, so, give him the chance to prove himself. He won't do that from the press box.

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01-22-2013, 01:12 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirty Danglez View Post
Eller has been given top 6 opportunities playing on Pleks' wing last season. It was so forgettable that you don't even seem to remember it. When there are injuries, Eller will be relied on to step up... right now (although Therrien seems to disagree) I think Eller is doing a great job on the 3rd line and on the PK. Give him an offensive winger and Moen to balance out that 3rd line.

Eller is learning every aspect of the game. He hasn't shown consistent offensive awareness just like Kostitsyn didn't... and wow he was such a great top 6 player wasn't he!? His opportunity will come, and he's one of my favorite players, I think he'll surprise some people. Not sure it's going to be this year, but I think he will become a bigger plekanec (who earned his spot... so spare me the cliche excuses... examples can be given out on both sides).
Isn't he a center?

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01-22-2013, 01:13 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Mats86 View Post
I get a feeling hockey is different than baseball where number crunching is not as accurate. Sabremetrics has taken over in baseball but hockey so many more variables I feel the numbers may be misleading.
This!

These statistical comparisons don't work at all in hockey. The only sport where this type of analysis works is golf.

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01-22-2013, 01:23 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
This!

These statistical comparisons don't work at all in hockey. The only sport where this type of analysis works is golf.
Indeed, dividing production by ice time doesn't work in hockey, because hockey isn't golf.

You need to look at total production.

Total icetime, quality of linemates, quality of competition, and zone starts have no impact.


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01-22-2013, 01:26 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Indeed, dividing production by ice time doesn't work in hockey, because hockey isn't golf.

You need to look at total production.

Total icetime, quality of linemates, quality of competition, and zone starts have no impact.

Crosby is playing with Kunitz and Dupuis, two Hall of Famers in the making

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01-22-2013, 01:28 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Habtchum View Post
Crosby is playing with Kunitz and Dupuis, two Hall of Famers in the making
I wish we could find out how many points Crosby would get if he had a whole season with two good linemates, no injuries, and a decent dman feeding his line the puck.

Will we ever know?

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01-22-2013, 01:28 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Habtchum View Post
If he's traded to another team, he will also play on a third line. That's his ceiling.
Players reach their ceiling at 23. That's why Plekanec is a 3rd liner and Desharnais is an AHLer.

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01-22-2013, 01:49 PM
  #43
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When I first saw Eller I thought shades of Sundin. I remember him using his size a lot to protect the puck along the boards and thought he could really become a powerforward type of player. I realize now he doesn't have the raw skills of Sundin. But that aside, I think he doesn't use his strengths as effectively as he could. Someone above mentioned drive. I tend to agree but I call it more involvement. For a guy who can skate like that and has that size seems to me he could get in there and stir things up more, drive the net, get into dirty areas, make things happens etc. He just seems like he doesn't want to ruffle feathers to me. It's like someone needs to piss him off or something.
Exactly my first impression as well.

I do, however see tons of skill from him. What people may miss out on is just how good his stickhandling and shooting is. His skating is nothing to scoff at and his defensive play is strong. The thing that ironically people might miss out on is that the reason he looks to be not doing the things we thought he'd do is because he's doing his job perfectly. He's being responsible around the ice and you can see that on his lines he has to do the lion's share, so he ends up often being gassed by time we're in the O zone. Plekanec has mastered the 2-way game, but over time. It's all about management + if you have capable wingers, you don't have to worry as much about the backcheck and they can dig the puck out sometimes.

If you give this guy space (when was the last time you really saw him on an odd man rush), he is VERY dangerous. He simply doesn't get it since he's on the third line with guys who are slower than him or just a bit out of step (it's been ONE game!) Moen is actually a good fit for him, but he needs another talented stickhandler, good passer, good vision type. You put him with Gio and (let's say he IS better this season), Bourque, I can see him really show us what the hype is all about.

I still think Eller is the bomb and if we don't trade him (wow, would that ever be stupid), in a few years, he'll be one of the best two way forwards and a close to PPG scorer IMO. This is based on watching every game, not looking at stats.

Anyway, I wasn't too worried about this "benching". It's more of a chance to let GallyB play and I guess keep GallyA (ok, Chucky) around for another game, which actually I don't mind at all. Eller will be fine.

I'm more worried about M. Sled pusher and M. Boca Springs.

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01-22-2013, 01:52 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
Players reach their ceiling at 23. That's why Plekanec is a 3rd liner and Desharnais is an AHLer.
joke/sarcasm, right? Pretty sure you're kidding cuz you're a smart poster, but just checking. I've seen some ruhhhhhtarded stuff being posted, all of which is a fallout of PK not being signed. (Domino effect.)

I wonder if 24CH is going to cover THIS controversy or just stick to the fluff.

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01-22-2013, 01:56 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Habtchum View Post
If he's traded to another team, he will also play on a third line. That's his ceiling.
What a ridiculous thing to say. Where was DD at 23?

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01-22-2013, 02:21 PM
  #46
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He isn't playing until his helmut isn't so damn tight!

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01-22-2013, 02:24 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Indeed, dividing production by ice time doesn't work in hockey, because hockey isn't golf.

You need to look at total production.

Total icetime, quality of linemates, quality of competition, and zone starts have no impact.

All of the above are generally dictated by the quality of the player being analyzed. It is a classic chicken/egg situation.

Understanding and watching hockey is the optimal way to analyze the game. Unfortunately there are very few who actually understand it.

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01-22-2013, 02:48 PM
  #48
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joke/sarcasm, right? Pretty sure you're kidding cuz you're a smart poster, but just checking. I've seen some ruhhhhhtarded stuff being posted, all of which is a fallout of PK not being signed. (Domino effect.)

I wonder if 24CH is going to cover THIS controversy or just stick to the fluff.
I think it's pretty obvious.

Mark Streit says hi.

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01-22-2013, 02:49 PM
  #49
Et le But
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Originally Posted by habtastic View Post
joke/sarcasm, right? Pretty sure you're kidding cuz you're a smart poster, but just checking. I've seen some ruhhhhhtarded stuff being posted, all of which is a fallout of PK not being signed. (Domino effect.)

I wonder if 24CH is going to cover THIS controversy or just stick to the fluff.
Should I have added the ? I just hate how people misuse the concept of "ceiling" around here as if development follows some set trajectory.

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01-22-2013, 02:51 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Team_Spirit View Post
this guy is vastly overrated.

his 4 goal game got people overexcited.
Unfortunetly you are correct, I want the guy to turn into a great player but I just don't see it

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