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Perry and Getzlaf talks to start

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01-24-2013, 12:21 AM
  #276
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I guarantee a franchise with money will do it. And you know damn right we can't match that. If he's offered 9 he's as good as gone.
Maybe, maybe not. That will be a franchise without a lot of talent, and that contract will be an anchor for improving the team. Is he willing to trade money for team success?

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01-24-2013, 12:43 AM
  #277
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Neither would I. He's earned the right to ask for a lot, but I don't see that as a wise expenditure for a team like ours.
Do you think he is the type to take max even if it meant Columbus?

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01-24-2013, 12:50 AM
  #278
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Do you think he is the type to take max even if it meant Columbus?
Perry is impossible to read because of his reclusive tendencies with the media. The best answer anyone can give at this point is maybe.

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01-24-2013, 01:02 AM
  #279
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9 mil? Pfftttttttttt.

Pears is gonna have to weigh in different factors other than just $, but he won't get 9 from the Ducks. 7.5-8 i can see happening.

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01-24-2013, 01:05 AM
  #280
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8m for perry seems like a lot..
i think <=7.5 per year is much more reasonable.. or am i being too greedy

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01-24-2013, 02:41 AM
  #281
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Originally Posted by Paul4587 View Post
If Perry hits the open market I would almost guarantee someone offers him $9M per year. If Gomez can get $7.5M when the cap was much lower on a legitimate deal then Perry will get offered $9M by someone.
Well the saving grace may be the cap is coming down, and many of the big market teams have alot of their money committed. Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos are probably the only guys i'd be ok paying 9 million to

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01-24-2013, 02:57 AM
  #282
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Well the saving grace may be the cap is coming down, and many of the big market teams have alot of their money committed. Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos are probably the only guys i'd be ok paying 9 million to
Edmonton has a bunch of young talent on entry level contracts. And has a new stadium that has been approved to be built. Team has money so be careful of what they offer. Also CBJ he COULD pull a 9 mill contract elsewhere. Just sayin

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01-24-2013, 03:13 AM
  #283
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If Perry hits the open market I would almost guarantee someone offers him $9M per year. If Gomez can get $7.5M when the cap was much lower on a legitimate deal then Perry will get offered $9M by someone.
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I guarantee a franchise with money will do it. And you know damn right we can't match that. If he's offered 9 he's as good as gone.
I would never guarantee something like that. It was a contract like Gomez's that started the backloading idea in the first place, because teams knew they couldn't hand out $9 million cap hits to anyone, not if they wanted to be competitive. Brad Richards got $7.8 million when the cap was barely anything, and that didn't lead to teams handing out anything close to the max when the cap went up.

To put it in perspective, 15 players make over $8 million a year(that's salary, not cap hit). 5 of those have legitimate contracts, all of them being basically franchise players, and the others are back-diving. Only 4 guys have cap hits over $8 million, all of them franchise players, and with the exception of Eric Staal, all of them generational talents. Back before the cap ever existed, a guy getting $10 million was a lot more common than you'd think, and even though the salary cap is right around the highest payrolls of the time and the average payroll is way higher, a team still can't give that to a guy. Times have changed, the middle class gets paid more now, and as a result teams can't commit that much of their cap space to one guy, unless he's an exception(and I believe all four of those deals were signed before back-diving contracts became a fad, with Crosby's new one also being a back-diving one). Hell, you look at Hossa a few years back, at no point was he ever getting $9 million a year, whether it be on a back-diving deal or a 1-year one.

With this league, and some of these owners, like Wang in New York, you never do know, but a lot of the evidence indicates that there's a line in the sand, and that line is around $8 million a year as a cap hit. It could be broken eventually, but between it being this year, so close to all the complaining owners did about contracts being crazy, and past cases, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that Perry ain't getting $9 million a year.

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01-24-2013, 04:34 AM
  #284
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Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
I would never guarantee something like that. It was a contract like Gomez's that started the backloading idea in the first place, because teams knew they couldn't hand out $9 million cap hits to anyone, not if they wanted to be competitive. Brad Richards got $7.8 million when the cap was barely anything, and that didn't lead to teams handing out anything close to the max when the cap went up.

To put it in perspective, 15 players make over $8 million a year(that's salary, not cap hit). 5 of those have legitimate contracts, all of them being basically franchise players, and the others are back-diving. Only 4 guys have cap hits over $8 million, all of them franchise players, and with the exception of Eric Staal, all of them generational talents. Back before the cap ever existed, a guy getting $10 million was a lot more common than you'd think, and even though the salary cap is right around the highest payrolls of the time and the average payroll is way higher, a team still can't give that to a guy. Times have changed, the middle class gets paid more now, and as a result teams can't commit that much of their cap space to one guy, unless he's an exception(and I believe all four of those deals were signed before back-diving contracts became a fad, with Crosby's new one also being a back-diving one). Hell, you look at Hossa a few years back, at no point was he ever getting $9 million a year, whether it be on a back-diving deal or a 1-year one.

With this league, and some of these owners, like Wang in New York, you never do know, but a lot of the evidence indicates that there's a line in the sand, and that line is around $8 million a year as a cap hit. It could be broken eventually, but between it being this year, so close to all the complaining owners did about contracts being crazy, and past cases, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that Perry ain't getting $9 million a year.
I said I'd almost guarantee he gets offered that - not that he'd sign it. Teams get desperate every year on July 1st and pay absurd amounts of money. The cap may be coming down next season but $65M is still a lot more than it was when Gomez and Redden got their ridiculous contracts. There will be a GM out there who offers it and I agree with Ducks DVM who said if it does happen it will likely be on a team with very little talent.

Perry btw has something none of Staal, Hossa or Richards have and that's an MVP title. He may not be on Crosby/Malkin/Stamkos's level but he's right in that next tier of players.

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01-24-2013, 08:20 AM
  #285
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So I'm always a fan of trying to find comparables and basing estimates of of them.

Like people have been saying, it's hard to find comparables to Perry because most recent contracts (ie contracts signed when the cap was close to the current cap) involve trickery like front-loading.

But there is one historical period that I think might apply. And that's right after the 2004-2005 lockout. It's right after a lockout. A new system is in place. And it was before the fad of unevenly weighted contracts. Premium FAs at that time regularly signed for 6-7 million dollars. Niedermayer = 6.8. Pronger = 6.3. Iginla = 7. Hossa = 6.

6.5 million compared to 2005's cap would be equivalent to 10.8 million with a 65M cap. So considering all the similarities, I think Perry could get 9 million.

Now like BRG said, the distribution has changed a lot since then. Back then the salaries were more haves and have nots, while now the top stars haven't had much increase in salary while the upper middle class has really grown. But I think it's just something interesting to note.

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01-24-2013, 09:02 AM
  #286
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Originally Posted by snarktacular View Post
So I'm always a fan of trying to find comparables and basing estimates of of them.

Like people have been saying, it's hard to find comparables to Perry because most recent contracts (ie contracts signed when the cap was close to the current cap) involve trickery like front-loading.

But there is one historical period that I think might apply. And that's right after the 2004-2005 lockout. It's right after a lockout. A new system is in place. And it was before the fad of unevenly weighted contracts. Premium FAs at that time regularly signed for 6-7 million dollars. Niedermayer = 6.8. Pronger = 6.3. Iginla = 7. Hossa = 6.

6.5 million compared to 2005's cap would be equivalent to 10.8 million with a 65M cap. So considering all the similarities, I think Perry could get 9 million.

Now like BRG said, the distribution has changed a lot since then. Back then the salaries were more haves and have nots, while now the top stars haven't had much increase in salary while the upper middle class has really grown. But I think it's just something interesting to note.
Very interesting point. The flip side is to look at what happened to every one of the teams with those contracts - a 1-3 year window of being good followed by a complete dismantling of the team when the teams' OTHER UFA's wanted a payday. Granted there were some idiot moves made by each of the respective GM's, but one could argue those contracts were shortsighted.

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01-24-2013, 01:38 PM
  #287
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Maybe, maybe not. That will be a franchise without a lot of talent, and that contract will be an anchor for improving the team. Is he willing to trade money for team success?
Ottawa is a team to look at here. With Alfredsson on the brink of retirement, opens up a big hole for Perry. They have the money and cap space. There's the connection with Brian Murray, the guy who drafted him. You know he'd be very interested in getting his guy back. Marc Methot, who played on the London Knights with Perry and won the Memorial Cup with him. They're an Ontario team, Perry is an Ontario kid, it's close to home. They were pretty successful last season and look like a team on the rise. A core of Perry, Spezza, and Karlsson is something the team can definitely build around. Although I hate the idea, it just makes a lot of sense.

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01-24-2013, 01:38 PM
  #288
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I also remember Hayward's interview with Bob Murray before the Canucks game. Murray said something about the Samueli's being on board with signing Getz and Perry, kind of giving him the "go." That really indicates that they know how important Getzlaf and Perry are to the franchise and are willing to open their wallets to get them signed.

Corey Perry probably will be asking for 9 million. It's part of negotiations. It's then Murray's job to negotiate that number lower. Bob is a good negotiator, and as long as he keeps his top priority re-signing both guys, I have no reason to doubt they won't sign.

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01-24-2013, 02:00 PM
  #289
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Originally Posted by RPGrizzly View Post
I also remember Hayward's interview with Bob Murray before the Canucks game. Murray said something about the Samueli's being on board with signing Getz and Perry, kind of giving him the "go." That really indicates that they know how important Getzlaf and Perry are to the franchise and are willing to open their wallets to get them signed.

Corey Perry probably will be asking for 9 million. It's part of negotiations. It's then Murray's job to negotiate that number lower. Bob is a good negotiator, and as long as he keeps his top priority re-signing both guys, I have no reason to doubt they won't sign.
As to your first paragraph, I didn't see that interview but am very glad to hear BM said that.

I agree with your second paragraph. I'd be happy if we could get him at 8x8 (lower would of course be better) but the question becomes, what does Perry really want? Being so quiet nobody really knows how much money, location, or friendship means to him in the equation. But I do believe if the team keeps winning (a big if with no guarantees) and if we can get Getz signed quickly it will work very much in out favor with Perry.

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01-24-2013, 02:20 PM
  #290
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As to your first paragraph, I didn't see that interview but am very glad to hear BM said that.

I agree with your second paragraph. I'd be happy if we could get him at 8x8 (lower would of course be better) but the question becomes, what does Perry really want? Being so quiet nobody really knows how much money, location, or friendship means to him in the equation. But I do believe if the team keeps winning (a big if with no guarantees) and if we can get Getz signed quickly it will work very much in out favor with Perry.
I remember that being said in the interview. I wish perry was a lil more sociable so we could get some sort of read off him. Ryan and Getz have always been media friends(maybe to friendly in ryans case).

But like you said hopefully we get getz signed and that helps with the talks with perry.

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01-24-2013, 02:53 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by RPGrizzly View Post
Ottawa is a team to look at here. With Alfredsson on the brink of retirement, opens up a big hole for Perry. They have the money and cap space. There's the connection with Brian Murray, the guy who drafted him. You know he'd be very interested in getting his guy back. Marc Methot, who played on the London Knights with Perry and won the Memorial Cup with him. They're an Ontario team, Perry is an Ontario kid, it's close to home. They were pretty successful last season and look like a team on the rise. A core of Perry, Spezza, and Karlsson is something the team can definitely build around. Although I hate the idea, it just makes a lot of sense.
Yeah, Ottawa is one of the few teams that concerns me. They do have to replace half their defense and find the money for raises for Michalek, Latendresse and Spezza over the next two years as well, but they could make a run at him.

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01-24-2013, 02:59 PM
  #292
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I agree about the Senators as well. Spezza really hasn't had an elite top line winger since Heatley.

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01-24-2013, 03:05 PM
  #293
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As to your first paragraph, I didn't see that interview but am very glad to hear BM said that.

I agree with your second paragraph. I'd be happy if we could get him at 8x8 (lower would of course be better) but the question becomes, what does Perry really want? Being so quiet nobody really knows how much money, location, or friendship means to him in the equation. But I do believe if the team keeps winning (a big if with no guarantees) and if we can get Getz signed quickly it will work very much in out favor with Perry.
We also don't know what the Ducks want, but we can speculate. Say one or both gets 8x8, or 64 or 8 years. I'd imagine Murray would want to dance the salary around Ryan and Fowler's contracts. We have a lot of contracts coming off the books in two years (Ryan, Souray, Beauch, Allen, Sbisa). By then the older guys on defense will either be gone or replaced by our younger guys making less. Sbisa shouldn't get too much of a raise. So say the Getz/Perry contracts go like this, sticking to the 8x8 guidline:

Year 1- $6M
Year 2- $6M
Year 3- (Ryan, defense contracts up) $9M
Year 4- $9M
Year 5- $9M
Year 6- (Fowler contract is up, he gets a raise) $8.5M
Year 7- $8.5M
Year 8- $8M

That's $64M over 8 years. The first two at $6M can easily fit in to our budget. After two, the contracts on defense are done, Souray is gone, one of Allen or Beauch stays on a paycut, while Lindholm and Vatanen fill in on low salaries. This helps us to spend up to 9 if we need to for Getz/Perry. Nobody knows what's happening with Ryan when his contract is up, he may not even be on the team.

This is just a very rough example of what I expect their new contracts to look like. As a budget team, it makes things a lot easier to dance around contracts like that. They could also want their money up front, which would make it a little bit easier to re-sign Ryan but doesn't fit well having a team salary sitting around $64M.

Fowler's contract is going to help a ton in negotiations. Great deal we have him on.

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01-24-2013, 03:20 PM
  #294
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Originally Posted by RPGrizzly View Post
We also don't know what the Ducks want, but we can speculate. Say one or both gets 8x8, or 64 or 8 years. I'd imagine Murray would want to dance the salary around Ryan and Fowler's contracts. We have a lot of contracts coming off the books in two years (Ryan, Souray, Beauch, Allen, Sbisa). By then the older guys on defense will either be gone or replaced by our younger guys making less. Sbisa shouldn't get too much of a raise. So say the Getz/Perry contracts go like this, sticking to the 8x8 guidline:

Year 1- $6M
Year 2- $6M
Year 3- (Ryan, defense contracts up) $9M
Year 4- $9M
Year 5- $9M
Year 6- (Fowler contract is up, he gets a raise) $8.5M
Year 7- $8.5M
Year 8- $8M

That's $64M over 8 years. The first two at $6M can easily fit in to our budget. After two, the contracts on defense are done, Souray is gone, one of Allen or Beauch stays on a paycut, while Lindholm and Vatanen fill in on low salaries. This helps us to spend up to 9 if we need to for Getz/Perry. Nobody knows what's happening with Ryan when his contract is up, he may not even be on the team.

This is just a very rough example of what I expect their new contracts to look like. As a budget team, it makes things a lot easier to dance around contracts like that. They could also want their money up front, which would make it a little bit easier to re-sign Ryan but doesn't fit well having a team salary sitting around $64M.

Fowler's contract is going to help a ton in negotiations. Great deal we have him on.
Anybody hitting ufa this off season would be wise to structure their contract in the pattern you layed out for potential escrow reasons related to the lockout. I think Zajac did something similar. As you point out, that could also help us sign Getz and Perry.

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01-24-2013, 03:49 PM
  #295
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Anybody hitting ufa this off season would be wise to structure their contract in the pattern you layed out for potential escrow reasons related to the lockout. I think Zajac did something similar. As you point out, that could also help us sign Getz and Perry.
They are similar, Zajac's yearly salary translated at an $8M cap hit would look like:

5, 7, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8, 8

Again, similar to what Getz and Perry could get.

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01-24-2013, 04:56 PM
  #296
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The owners were stupid as each owner thought only about himself when they agreed to the srtructure of the salary cap system. The various formulas being used enabled both the players and owners to receive more in paid salary than their cap hit. This gave rise to manipulation, especially in the case of front loaded long term contracts which went far beyond a player's useful playing life. The very wealthy teams took advantage of the system to their benefit. Parity should have been the issue rather than manipulation. The salary cap structure IMO is all wrong. It has lead to crazy demands by players (i.e., front and back loaded deals that have no reasonable relationship with current reality) and to the wealthy owners who can afford to manipulate the system.

The cap system could have been very simple. In reality it is designed to give the players ridiculous current salaries and long term deals that will go beyond their useful playing life. It also gives wealthy owners the ability to manipulate the salarycap hit while paying more dollars out in the long run.

I believe the salary cap system could have been fair and simple to understand as well as giving ALL teams the opportunity to compete equally. Simple arithmatic would work to everyone's advantage each and every year. Just take the total salary of the contract and divide it by the number of years of a player;s contract. The average of the salary then would impact a team equally every year for all the years of the contract.

My two cents for what it's worth.

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01-24-2013, 05:11 PM
  #297
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The salary cap structure IMO is all wrong. It has lead to crazy demands by players (i.e., front and back loaded deals that have no reasonable relationship with current reality) and to the wealthy owners who can afford to manipulate the system.
You know they fixed that stuff, right?

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01-24-2013, 05:35 PM
  #298
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I said I'd almost guarantee he gets offered that - not that he'd sign it. Teams get desperate every year on July 1st and pay absurd amounts of money. The cap may be coming down next season but $65M is still a lot more than it was when Gomez and Redden got their ridiculous contracts. There will be a GM out there who offers it and I agree with Ducks DVM who said if it does happen it will likely be on a team with very little talent.

Perry btw has something none of Staal, Hossa or Richards have and that's an MVP title. He may not be on Crosby/Malkin/Stamkos's level but he's right in that next tier of players.
One thing about Staal, though, is that he basically is the Hurricanes franchise, and that adds a bit of clout itself. Same with Nash in Columbus when he signed his deal, teams will go all out to keep their franchise guys. You don't see it as much in free agency when adding a new player.

As for getting that offer, I guess we'll agree to disagree. I think it could happen, mainly because the Islanders still exist, but I really have my doubts. Again, as ridiculous as owners have been, they've seemingly stayed far away from large cap hits, and coming off of a lockout, I think they'll continue to do the same. But this could all be moot anyway if Perry doesn't make it till July 1.

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01-24-2013, 05:38 PM
  #299
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You know they fixed that stuff, right?
No. I'm not sure it is fixed, entirely. What happens when a player retires? Does the cap hit still remain with the team post retirement?

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01-24-2013, 06:02 PM
  #300
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No. I'm not sure it is fixed, entirely. What happens when a player retires? Does the cap hit still remain with the team post retirement?
The 35+ rule is still in effect. If that player retires before his contract is up, the cap hit stays.

They've added penalties to the long term contracts where teams gained any sort of cap advantage from a contract or "manipulated" the contract as you say. The penalties go into effect if the player retires before his contract is up, and the team's cap will be hit according to any cap advantages they gained. There's a lot more to this rule, but basically it penalizes teams who sign/signed players beyond the age they expect them to retire at.

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