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Winnipeg Jets 2013 Lineup and Statistical Analysis (See Post 1 for reference)

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Old
01-18-2013, 10:39 PM
  #26
StaticPrevails
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsalot View Post
I popped into the Habs board and saw this

http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/20...t-and-age.html

Successfully added size much? The tallest lineup in the league! Also 4th heaviest and in a tie for second youngest.
Chevy went into overdrive this week and added serious bulk to this team.

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01-18-2013, 10:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsalot View Post
I popped into the Habs board and saw this

http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/20...t-and-age.html

Successfully added size much? The tallest lineup in the league! Also 4th heaviest and in a tie for second youngest.
Buff skews that a bit.

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01-18-2013, 11:02 PM
  #28
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Come on Garret, it's Wright not White!
whoops! fixed haha

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01-18-2013, 11:26 PM
  #29
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Come on Garret, it's Wright not White!
Isn't Colin White on waivers.... Garret you know something we don't?

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01-19-2013, 07:38 AM
  #30
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Isn't Colin White on waivers.... Garret you know something we don't?
Everyone stop making fun of my typo

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01-19-2013, 08:42 AM
  #31
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Quote:
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Buff skews that a bit.
But in fairness his partner skews it the other way. But together the are a formidable 6.2" 220 lbs.

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01-19-2013, 08:45 AM
  #32
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Great, so we are the tallest team in the league, and the fourth heaviest. Can people please stop claiming that we need to get rid of Enström and Burmistrov because we need to get bigger now? Or do we need to be first in both categories with a solid margin before we're happy?

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01-19-2013, 08:52 AM
  #33
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Last 2 stat thingys about the past (unless I find some reason I have to bring up the past)...

Today I'm going to do:
Jets' Penalty Differential: Drawn vs. Taken (F/D split)
Jets' Giveaways/Takaways Differential (F/D split)

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01-19-2013, 09:02 AM
  #34
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Let's see who's creating PP and PK. This is only looking at even strength.

Forwards
NameDrawn/60Taken/60Diff/60
Kane 1.5 1.0 0.5
Burmistrov 1.3 1.0 0.3
Wheeler 0.9 0.7 0.2
Ladd 0.8 0.9 -0.1
Ponikarovsky 0.8 0.9 -0.1
Slater 0.8 0.7 0.1
Jokinen 0.7 1.0 -0.3
Wellwood 0.6 0.1 0.5
Little 0.6 0.5 0.1
Thorburn 0.6 1.1 -0.5
Antropov 0.4 1.1 -0.7
Miettinen 0.3 0.0 0.3

Defense
NameDrawn/60Taken/60Diff/60
Stuart 0.6 1.1 -0.5
Enstrom 0.4 0.7 -0.3
Clitsome 0.3 1.0 -0.7
Bogosian 0.3 0.6 -0.3
Byfuglien 0.2 1.0 -0.8
Hainsey 0.4 0.1 -0.3

Don't get your knickers too much in a knot about D as it's extremely rare for D to draw more penalties than they take as nature of the beast...
Our forwards would do good to improve though a lot... *Antropov*


Last edited by garret9: 01-19-2013 at 09:29 AM.
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01-19-2013, 09:31 AM
  #35
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Now lets find out who needs to improve on giving away free-pizzas.
Usually the stats I do are even strength unless otherwise said. This unfortunately I had to do all three (evenstrength, PP and PK), so take with a grain of salt and remember that puck carriers are more at risk for give-aways too... anyways

Forwards
NameGiveAw/60TakeAw/60Diff/60
Little 0.842 1.765 0.922
Kane 0.833 1.620 0.787
Ponikarovsky 0.943 1.638 0.695
Wheeler 1.298 1.966 0.668
Burmistrov 1.469 1.991 0.521
Wellwood 1.355 1.825 0.469
Miettinen 0.570 0.798 0.228
Slater 0.990 1.199 0.209
Antropov 1.212 1.317 0.105
Thorburn 1.146 1.064 -0.082
Ladd 1.608 1.496 -0.112
Jokinen 2.844 2.607 -0.237

Defense
NameGiveAw/60TakeAw/60Diff/60
Byfuglien 2.07 1.85 -0.23
Clitsome 1.68 0.84 -0.84
Enstrom 1.18 0.32 -0.85
Bogosian 1.62 0.67 -0.95
Hainsey 1.52 0.51 -1.02
Stuart 1.88 0.31 -1.57

Notes
*Little has the best take/give in the entire league (don't know if per min... too lazy to divide by every NHLers TOI)
*Poni looks like a great addition
*Jokinen might be giving less pizza's away this season since he'll be facing lower competition level than last season (see the Jokinen link on post #1... before the 3 guys Jokinen lined up against were Sedin, Datsyuk and Kopitar... so you can understand)
*Byfuglien looks REALLY good for a D-man, differential-wise... If he could reduce his give-aways to more normal level it be effing ridiculous... interesting...


Last edited by garret9: 01-19-2013 at 10:07 AM.
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01-19-2013, 09:53 AM
  #36
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Very cool.

Love this Garret.

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01-19-2013, 10:01 AM
  #37
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Awesome work garret. I've never been a huge stats guy, but your work has changed my views a bit. Enjoyable and informative.

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01-19-2013, 10:25 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
Awesome work garret. I've never been a huge stats guy, but your work has changed my views a bit. Enjoyable and informative.
Thanks

Stats can never tell a whole story, but they can add colours and depth to what you see and help correct things that you misunderstood

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01-19-2013, 11:24 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by KingBogo View Post
But in fairness his partner skews it the other way. But together the are a formidable 6.2" 220 lbs.
Very true. I never thought of it that way.

Combine the two and they are 6'2, 220 lbs, from a swedish part of Minnesota, love offense, and the PP, will go back to our end on occassion to see what's going on.

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01-19-2013, 11:29 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post

Notes
*Little has the best take/give in the entire league (don't know if per min... too lazy to divide by every NHLers TOI)
*Poni looks like a great addition
*Jokinen might be giving less pizza's away this season since he'll be facing lower competition level than last season (see the Jokinen link on post #1... before the 3 guys Jokinen lined up against were Sedin, Datsyuk and Kopitar... so you can understand)
*Byfuglien looks REALLY good for a D-man, differential-wise... If he could reduce his give-aways to more normal level it be effing ridiculous... interesting...
His give-away/take-away numbers are mind-boggling - very involved in the play when he's out there, good and bad. But those numbers may be more in the offensive zone (a zone he loves playing in) as i don't recall Buff giving the puck away in the defensive zone all that often, but do remember intercepting passes in the offensive zone leading to a chance.

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01-19-2013, 05:37 PM
  #41
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Game 1; OTT 4 @ Jets 1

No advance stats out yet so I'll keep things simple.

Team Stats (OTT-WPG):
Shots: 37-28
PIM: 14-6
Hits: 21-29
Giveaways: 8-19
Takeaways: 5-4
FO wins: 28-35

SOG Leaders:
Buff 6
Kane 4
Postma 3
Hainsey 3

Main FO Regulars:
Burmi 8W 3L 73%
Jokinen 7W 4L 63.6%
Little 15W 11L 57.7%
Slater 3W 6L 33.3%

Hit Leaders:
Kane 4
Slater 4
Ladd 4
Stuart 3
Burmi 3

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01-21-2013, 12:40 AM
  #42
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I ran these using Robert Cleave's work at jetsnation.ca
They aren't from "true" Corsi numbers... Robert called the "artisan" Corsi numbers haha...
I then took the teams average and made the players relative to the average...
Not pretty or true numbers gives you an idea...
Fenwick is like Corsi but doesn't take in account for blocked shots...
Also, keep in mind SUPER small sample size and I'm just guessing the match-ups from what I saw and remember...

Forwards
NameRelCorsiRelFenwickOZS
Kane 11.42 10.67 38%
Jokinen 10.42 08.67 67%
Wellwood 11.42 13.67 60%
    
Ladd 02.42 03.67 45%
Little 03.42 03.67 36%
Wheeler 02.42 01.67 50%
    
Ponikarovsky -01.58 -05.33 33%
Burmistrov -01.58 -03.33 40%
Antropov -05.58 -03.33 50%
    
Thorburn -10.58 -09.33 10%
Slater -07.58 -06.33 09%
Scheifele -14.58 -14.33 14%
*looks like Noel is using similar usage as last season, he's pushing the 34d and 4th line back a bit to push up the second line
*LLW was ok and in the black, but, just as the eye-test showed us, not nearly in last years form
*Kane's line received some nice treatment due to the others being pushed back... they did get all the positive results except the one that matters most (goals)... the goals will come in time, unfortunately probably not as many as I would like unless Kane and/or Jokinen start passing it to each other better
*USSR line was in the red but relative to GST last year (~-20) stark improvement... plus the goals should come
*4th line is getting hurt but at least they aren't being killed as bad as last season since the 3rd line is taking the tougher match-ups... I'd like to see if Wright over Thorburn would produce much better results
*wonder how much better USSR and 4th line would have done if the D-core was better... Scheifele's offensive instincts served him well in the game but he isn't a prototypical bottom 6 player and hasn't really been shutting down anyone... if he doesn't get sent back down I think he may need to switch with Wellwood for sheltering


Defense
NameRelCorsiRelFenwickOZS
Byfuglien 8.17 11.0 50%
Enstrom 8.17 11.0 50%
    
Hainsey -2.83 -02.8 18%
Stuart -3.83 -03.8 11%
    
Postma -2.83 -02.8 38%
Clitsome -6.83 -06.8 33%
*again similar usage to last season pushing 1st forward and 2nd back...
*obviously Enstrom and Buff played well
*2nd pairing misses Bogosian but wasn't a huge difference from last season... wonder if with Hains-Bogo this pairing would ha
*3rd pairing really sucked... especially Clitsome... If Stuart is taking tougher mins than you and you can't out do him... you got a problem


Last edited by garret9: 01-21-2013 at 12:59 AM.
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01-22-2013, 12:54 AM
  #43
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Game 2; Jets 1 @ Bos 2 (SO)

REG STATS

Team Stats (WPG-BOS):
Shots: 27-27
PIM: 4-8
Hits: 32-48
Giveaways: 8-9
Takeaways: 7-7
FO wins: 30-37

SOG Leaders:
Buff 4
Kane 4
Thorburn 3

Main FO Regulars:
Slater 9W 5L 64%
Antro 6W 4L 60%
Burmi 5W 8L 39%
Little 3W 5L 38%
Joki 5W 10L 33%

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE MORE INDEPTH STATS

More "artisan" Corsi numbers from jetsnation.ca and Robert. These are just for the Boston game.
Again, remember that we don't know for sure how the match-up game went, but looking at last year Boston does a power vs power where they line up both their top6 lines against the other teams top6... and with home team last change it appears like it was that way.
Forwards
NameRelCorsiRelFenwickOZS
Kane -1.1 2.2 45.5%
Jokinen -1.1 1.2 41.7%
Wellwood 0.9 5.2 50.0%
    
Ladd -3.1 -05.8 62.5%
Little -8.1 -11.8 50.0%
Wheeler -2.1 -02.8 54.5%
    
Ponikarovsky 2.9 3.2 53.8%
Burmistrov 2.9 3.2 87.5%
Antropov 0.9 2.2 83.3%
    
Slater 0.9 0.2 21.4%
Thorburn -0.1 0.2 28.6%
Scheifele 6.9 3.2 50.0%
*Kane's line received less OZS, which did damage their very high Corsi from before, but, as I'm sure most of you noticed, increased chemistry allowed them to be more dangerous in the few chances they had today than the many they had on Saturday
*ya... LLW had some rough times today. Noel kept pushing them in the O-zone and they weren't making much use to it today. They did seem to improve in the third period though...
*hey people who says Noel isn't giving anything to Burmi or those that do well... Noel noticed the USSR line was doing well so he gave them some OZS... Antro and Burmi were both given some offensive time and they did well with it, but unfortunately still have yet to score.
*WOW... 4th line didn't just score Thor and Slater were positive with <30% OZS... holly ****....
So it looks like Noel adjusted to Boston's power vs power strategy. Since he knew they were lining up against Kane's line and LLW he pushed the 4th line into the Dzone so that he can push the USSR line into soft offensive minutes. And, we get a bottom 6 goal out of it!

Defense
NameRelCorsiRelFenwickOZS
Byfuglien -2.0 -2.5 42.1%
Enstrom 4.0 4.5 42.1%
    
Stuart -8.0 -4.5 38.5%
Hainsey -5.0 -2.5 41.7%
    
Clitsome 5.0 2.5 80.0%
Postma 6.0 2.5 100.0%
*Enstrom looked to have a pretty good game. The two weren't pushed into the Ozone like on Saturday but we all noticed they were still pretty strong... Buff got hurt for the few minutes he was away from Enstrom... to get outshot that bad as soon as he moves away from the little guy is a big deal.
*Stuart and Hainsey spent a little less time in the Dzone for two reasons: 1) WPG played better so the ice wasn't as tilted and 2) Buff and Enstrom weren't pushed so forward. While Hainsey and Stuart were in the negatives, I think that most of us who watched thought they did pretty good from keeping things too dangerous
*Thank god... after last game I was hoping Noel would do this. Last game Clitsome and Postma were given ~40% OZS... and it was UGLY... This is so much better.... we all know Postma and even Clitsome can be effective in sheltered scoring minutes so lets use more of this
Again we see that Noel adjusted... Noel pushed Clitsome and Postma into sheltered scoring minutes with the top two pairs taking the toughs... and what we get... bottom pair scoring...

Overall this looks like a better team game and also a better job by Noel. I still think Scheifele and Burmistrov should have had some more TOI in the third period. Noel seems to be a great strategist, even if I don't think he's great at rewarding/punishing personnel.


Last edited by garret9: 01-22-2013 at 01:06 AM.
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01-22-2013, 10:45 AM
  #44
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I can see where you'd get that idea... but i kind of wonder about it. It's not like he changed his strategy substantively and they eventually got a goal out of it. It could jsut as likely have been that he changed things up BECAUSE they scored and looked good early. The goal came less than two minutes in the game! Nonetheless, he did change things up after that... so good on him. I also hope he's thinking a game ahead a bit too. After an early goal and good play, you've got to be thinking about the minutes and how people will be playing tomorrow (tonight).

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01-22-2013, 11:20 AM
  #45
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I can see where you'd get that idea... but i kind of wonder about it. It's not like he changed his strategy substantively and they eventually got a goal out of it. It could jsut as likely have been that he changed things up BECAUSE they scored and looked good early. The goal came less than two minutes in the game! Nonetheless, he did change things up after that... so good on him. I also hope he's thinking a game ahead a bit too. After an early goal and good play, you've got to be thinking about the minutes and how people will be playing tomorrow (tonight).
True that it's a bit of the chicken and the egg...
But Noel changing Postma, Scheifele and Clitsome to me speaks he knows how to shelter those guys.

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01-22-2013, 11:22 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsalot View Post
I popped into the Habs board and saw this

http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/20...t-and-age.html

Successfully added size much? The tallest lineup in the league! Also 4th heaviest and in a tie for second youngest.
Jets were the 7th tallest team last year, but in the mid teens for weight.

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01-22-2013, 03:45 PM
  #47
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Jets were the 7th tallest team last year, but in the mid teens for weight.
I wonder how much Buff and Pavelec skew that .

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01-23-2013, 08:14 PM
  #48
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Game 3: Jets 4 @ Capitals 2

Underying Numbers

More "artisan" Corsi numbers from jetsnation.ca and Robert. These are just for the Washington game.
Again, remember that we don't know for sure how the match-up game went, but I tried to keep it in mind when I was watching the game.

For those that are wondering Corsi is generally used for "possession" time estimations while Fenwick removes blocked shots which generally is a better predictor of skill and effectiveness (because blocking shots is an individual and team skill).

Before I break down each line, I want to mention a few things. When stat guys are trying to make very strong predictions of players abilities they usually use Corsi/Fenwick close or tied. What the close and tied is indicating is the score. As, pretty much everyone knows, strategies change when you have a big lead (or are behind by a lot) and so to make a better estimate they only use when the game is close (within 2 points) or tied. This game is an example of that... after the second the Jets' as a team were with a +12 Corsi and +16 Fenwick... after the game they were -2 Corsi and +6 Fenwick. Combination of fire under the Caps butts and the Jets' trying to eat minutes caused a lot of shots on the Jets in the third (although from my end it looked *mostly* from non-dangerous perimeter areas). So take the numbers with a grain of salt and that in mind... especially lines (Kane's) that played a lot in the 3rd.

Forwards
NameRelCorsiRelFenwickOZS
Ladd 10.2 08.2 76.9%
Antropov 10.2 09.2 76.9%
Little 13.2 11.2 90.9%
    
Kane -5.8 -05.8 33.3%
Jokinen -4.8 -00.8 33.3%
Wheeler -8.8 -04.8 25.0%
    
Ponikarovsky 1.2 -00.8 66.7%
Burmistrov 2.2 00.2 75.0%
Scheifele 0.2 -01.8 100.0%
    
Wright -7.8 -06.8 0.0%
Slater -4.8 -04.8 0.0%
Thorburn -4.8 -02.8 0.0%
*it's too bad the LAL line didn't score any goals at even strength, as they seemed to control possession... even if they got a huge offensive zone boost.
*KJW had an even strength goal and a impressive possession numbers when you combine the OZS, they seemed exclusively matched by the other teams top6 and the fire WAS lit in the 3rd.
*Scheifele was sheltered from the defensive zone as expected and the line was able to stay moderately in the black... also, Burmi was awesome that game (just saying).
* WST, check out those OZS... ouch... surprised they weren't beaten up more. Wright showed promise, and the Jets' did get their 2nd goal from the 4th line in as many games... although Thorburn was -1...


Defense
NameRelCorsiRelFenwickOZS
Byfuglien 7.5 4.33 38.5%
Enstrom 9.5 6.33 41.7%
    
Stuart -9.5 -0.67 55.6%
Hainsey -8.5 -1.67 75.0%
    
Postma 4.5 -0.67 83.3%
Clitsome -3.5 -7.67 75.0%
*Bahahaha, effing rights... even when Tobi and Buff don't get pushed into the O-zone they still come on top. Honestly they are underrated how good they are when together.
*Stu and Hains faced the bulk of the 3rd period counter-attack and did well. The huge disparity in Fenwick and Corsi is because they both blocked shots like MF's (Hainsey 6, Stuart 5)
*Postma has been outplaying Clitsome pretty bad... also to note Postma has been improving

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01-24-2013, 03:53 PM
  #49
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behindthenet.com has just started doing some updates so I have access to my gold mine again


I'll do a breakdown of forwards, then D, and then team

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01-24-2013, 04:20 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
behindthenet.com has just started doing some updates so I have access to my gold mine again


I'll do a breakdown of forwards, then D, and then team
I was going to say it must be exciting for the stats guys to have new material (2013 season) to work with!

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