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2013 NHL Draft Top 100: The Next Ones Midterm Rankings (THW)

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Old
01-24-2013, 05:30 PM
  #26
ikelechien
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Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
which I understand....the drops are too far off from reality is my point. there simply isnt enough European players that will get drafted in the top 100 to knock down almost every US kid ranked.. it simply will not happen.. and the moral is the CS rankings were pretty bad this time out..many players are ranked much higher on other services yet see big drops on here. still not buying it.
By my count, Christopher Ralph has ranked 19 US-born players in his top 100 of which he has ranked 10 higher than Central Scouting or 53%. Chris, if you want to discriminate against US-born players, you will have to do so much better than this. Tsk! Tsk! The Central Scouting numbers are from the combined ranking I did at TheHockeyWriters.com. And by the way, Chris, you have Jimmy Lodge way too high, IMO.

# > CR CS Diff Name Team League
1 < 3 1 -2 JONES, SETH PORTLAND WHL
2 1 12 18 6 ERNE, ADAM QUEBEC QMJHL
3 2 26 30 4 COMPHER, JT USA U-18 USHL
4 < 36 29 -7 MCCOSHEN, IAN WATERLOO USHL
5 < 38 35 -3 HARTMAN, RYAN PLYMOUTH OHL
6 3 40 53 13 BAILEY, JUSTIN KITCHENER OHL
7 4 42 44 2 HURLEY, CONNOR EDINA HIGH HIGH-MN
8 5 46 65 19 SANTINI, STEVEN USA U-18 USHL
9 6 48 70 22 THOMPSON, KEATON USA U-18 USHL
10 7 54 63 9 FITZGERALD, RYAN VALLEY EJHL
11 8 55 NR NR CAMMARATA, TAYLOR WATERLOO USHL
12 9 65 81 16 CASSELS, COLE OSHAWA OHL
13 < 69 68 -1 DOWNING, MICHAEL DUBUQUE USHL
14 < 71 56 -15 FASCHING, HUDSON USA U-18 USHL
15 10 72 80 8 HAYDEN, JOHN USA U-18 USHL
16 < 77 49 -28 PESCE, BRETT NEW HAMP. H-EAST
17 < 80 43 -37 MCCARRON, MICHAEL USA U-18 USHL
18 < 88 39 -49 LODGE, JIMMY SAGINAW OHL
19 < 89 85 -4 WHEATON, MITCHELL KELOWNA WHL

Scratch Mitchell Wheaton from the above list as he is Canadian as armaster pointed out below. This leaves a 55-45 split.


Last edited by ikelechien: 01-24-2013 at 06:02 PM. Reason: Mitchell Wheaton
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Old
01-24-2013, 05:34 PM
  #27
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The worst outlier in this ranking is actually Frederik Gauthier... And no one else. Otherwise, awesome rankings.

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01-24-2013, 05:50 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by ikelechien View Post
By my count, Christopher Ralph has ranked 19 US-born players in his top 100 of which he has ranked 10 higher than Central Scouting or 53%. Chris, if you want to discriminate against US-born players, you will have to do so much better than this. Tsk! Tsk! The Central Scouting numbers are from the combined ranking I did at TheHockeyWriters.com. And by the way, Chris, you have Jimmy Lodge way too high, IMO.

# > CR CS Diff Name Team League
1 < 3 1 -2 JONES, SETH PORTLAND WHL
2 1 12 18 6 ERNE, ADAM QUEBEC QMJHL
3 2 26 30 4 COMPHER, JT USA U-18 USHL
4 < 36 29 -7 MCCOSHEN, IAN WATERLOO USHL
5 < 38 35 -3 HARTMAN, RYAN PLYMOUTH OHL
6 3 40 53 13 BAILEY, JUSTIN KITCHENER OHL
7 4 42 44 2 HURLEY, CONNOR EDINA HIGH HIGH-MN
8 5 46 65 19 SANTINI, STEVEN USA U-18 USHL
9 6 48 70 22 THOMPSON, KEATON USA U-18 USHL
10 7 54 63 9 FITZGERALD, RYAN VALLEY EJHL
11 8 55 NR NR CAMMARATA, TAYLOR WATERLOO USHL
12 9 65 81 16 CASSELS, COLE OSHAWA OHL
13 < 69 68 -1 DOWNING, MICHAEL DUBUQUE USHL
14 < 71 56 -15 FASCHING, HUDSON USA U-18 USHL
15 10 72 80 8 HAYDEN, JOHN USA U-18 USHL
16 < 77 49 -28 PESCE, BRETT NEW HAMP. H-EAST
17 < 80 43 -37 MCCARRON, MICHAEL USA U-18 USHL
18 < 88 39 -49 LODGE, JIMMY SAGINAW OHL
19 < 89 85 -4 WHEATON, MITCHELL KELOWNA WHL
Isn't Mitchell Wheaton from Alberta?

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01-24-2013, 06:00 PM
  #29
ikelechien
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Isn't Mitchell Wheaton from Alberta?
U are so correct. Had Michael Downing in my head which is not a good excuse since I had already listed Michael Downing!!!

Chris, this doesn't let U off the hook if U want to discriminate against US-born players as this minor adjustment puts U at 55-45 - doesn't look good for the discrimination!!!


Last edited by ikelechien: 01-24-2013 at 06:03 PM. Reason: 55 45
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Old
01-24-2013, 08:29 PM
  #30
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Deep list of draft eligible WHL Defenseman.

Seth Jones, Ryan Pulock, Josh Morrissey, Shea Theodore, Madison Bowey, Mirco Mueller, Eric Roy, Macoy Erkamps, Jesse Lees, Dillon Heatherington, Mason Geertsen, Tyler Lewington, Tyler King, Marc McNulty, Ayrton Nikkel, Ty Stanton, Mitchell Wheaton, Adam Henry, Keegan Kanzig, Kayle Doetzel, could all be drafted.

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01-24-2013, 08:38 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by ikelechien View Post
U are so correct. Had Michael Downing in my head which is not a good excuse since I had already listed Michael Downing!!!

Chris, this doesn't let U off the hook if U want to discriminate against US-born players as this minor adjustment puts U at 55-45 - doesn't look good for the discrimination!!!
lol...too funny, ikelechien.

For the record, for me, there are no borders when it comes to the brotherhood of hockey. I judge on talent and potential; not birth certificate. The only exception is if it becomes evident a Russian prospect has no intention of crossing the pond - but that's getting harder to nail down these days.

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01-24-2013, 09:25 PM
  #32
zjh
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Care to elaborate?

These all seem like long term, limited upside players.

Big kids, but I'm wondering if they'll ever me more than 5/6's who play the PK.

Geertsen is the kid I favour (Brooks Orpik like upside for me), McNulty has only stuck out for me because he's huge in my viewings, not because he's good.

How would you rank them Zenon, who do you see them comparing too at the NHL level?

I'd probably go Geertsen, Wheaton, Doetzel, McNulty.
Agree. The NHL draft is a volitile and unpredictable process but I like all these kids games. They may be limited to 4-6 upside but having big defenseman in your bottom half is always good.

They all skate well and are tough to play against defensively.

They are going to be longer project guys. But have good upsides and are the type of players I would love to have on my defense.

My rankings: Doetzel, Geertsen, Wheaton, McNulty.

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01-24-2013, 09:48 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danccchan View Post
So what I did was filter out the THW rankings into North American skaters only, and his list isn't as different as you exaggerate it to be Americandream

NameTHWCSSDiff
Seth Jones31-2
Adam Erne913+4
J.T Compher1920+1
Ian McCoshen2721-6
Ryan Hartman2925-4
Justin Bailey3037+7
Connor Hurley32320
Steven Santini3447+13
Keaton Thompson3551+16
Ryan Fitzgerald4046+6
Cole Cassels4960+11
Michael Downing5349-4
Hudson Fasching5542-13
John Hayden5659+3
Brett Pesce5836-22
Michael McCarron6031-29
Jimmy Lodge6828-40
Tyler Hill7185+14

For me, it looks fairly even. The only times it great differs is when we are discussing 2nd round prospects, which in the THW rankings, fall into the 3rd. Not exactly a huge drop off.
I haven't seen all of the players being discussed, maybe only a couple of people here have but it's a very deep draft when the leading scorer for the WHL is ranked 35th.

Sure Petan is a small player but he isn't a perimeter one and he didn't skip a beat all season long, has been really consistent.

Jackson Houck at 94 is another guy who would be top 60 most years, heck I think someone takes him top 60 this year.

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01-24-2013, 11:27 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by zjh View Post
What I can tell you about this draft is that WHL defenseman such as Marc McNulty, Mason Geertsen, Mitch Wheaton, and Kayle Doetzel will provide teams with some wicked picks in the 50-100 area.
You nailed in Zenon. Got the makings of a deep draft and going to be some happy team scouts with who they are able to lock in on even in the 4th rnd and beyond.

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01-25-2013, 10:43 AM
  #35
chrisralph007
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Anyone else like to chime in on who's ranked:

1. too high
2. too low
3. just about right
4. omitted or deserving of Top 100 consideration

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01-25-2013, 10:52 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zjh View Post
Agree. The NHL draft is a volitile and unpredictable process but I like all these kids games. They may be limited to 4-6 upside but having big defenseman in your bottom half is always good.

They all skate well and are tough to play against defensively.

They are going to be longer project guys. But have good upsides and are the type of players I would love to have on my defense.

My rankings: Doetzel, Geertsen, Wheaton, McNulty.
Here's another question for you Zenon:

Does Ayrton Nikkel get drafted? Where?

Do you see NHL potential?

Reminds me a lot of Jesse Forsberg without the crazy, and I always thought he'd be drafted too.

I thought his offensive would have showed more by now, but being stuck behind Pulock and Roy probably stunted him.

Extremely young for the draft, so the potential to develop that side is there still, IMO.

Cheers.

Oh yeah, and thanks for the reply....also thanks THW for all your work.

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01-25-2013, 11:27 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Here's another question for you Zenon:

Does Ayrton Nikkel get drafted? Where?

Do you see NHL potential?

Reminds me a lot of Jesse Forsberg without the crazy, and I always thought he'd be drafted too.

I thought his offensive would have showed more by now, but being stuck behind Pulock and Roy probably stunted him.

Extremely young for the draft, so the potential to develop that side is there still, IMO.

Cheers.

Oh yeah, and thanks for the reply....also thanks THW for all your work.
Nikkel is a decent prospect. You're right, he plays a kind of tough and rugged style. He definitely has a good chance to be drafted but if I were making picks there would be quite a few other defenseman I would consider later in the draft before Nikkel (Jensen, Lees, Kanzig, Erkamps )

I think getting moved to Everett could help him play bigger minutes and develop.

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01-25-2013, 01:32 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisralph007 View Post
Anyone else like to chime in on who's ranked:

1. too high
2. too low
3. just about right
4. omitted or deserving of Top 100 consideration
too high:
Drouin
Shinkaruk
Burakowsky
Dano
Subban
Needham

too low:
Barkov
Ristolainen
Nurse
Martin
Dunn

should be mentioned:
Desrosiers
Saros
Vanelli

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01-25-2013, 04:38 PM
  #39
thrillhous
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danccchan View Post
So what I did was filter out the THW rankings into North American skaters only, and his list isn't as different as you exaggerate it to be Americandream

NameTHWCSSDiff
Seth Jones31-2
Adam Erne913+4
J.T Compher1920+1
Ian McCoshen2721-6
Ryan Hartman2925-4
Justin Bailey3037+7
Connor Hurley32320
Steven Santini3447+13
Keaton Thompson3551+16
Ryan Fitzgerald4046+6
Cole Cassels4960+11
Michael Downing5349-4
Hudson Fasching5542-13
John Hayden5659+3
Brett Pesce5836-22
Michael McCarron6031-29
Jimmy Lodge6828-40
Tyler Hill7185+14

For me, it looks fairly even. The only times it great differs is when we are discussing 2nd round prospects, which in the THW rankings, fall into the 3rd. Not exactly a huge drop off.
Owned. Thanks for putting that together, danccchan.

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01-25-2013, 09:43 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by stayinalive View Post
too high:
Drouin
Shinkaruk
Burakowsky
Dano
Subban
Needham

too low:
Barkov
Ristolainen
Nurse
Martin
Dunn

should be mentioned:
Desrosiers
Saros
Vanelli
Thanks StayinAlive for your compilation. Understand many; intrigued by some.

Would be curious to hear you elaborate on some of there.

For the record, Vanelli narrowly missed the Top 100.

Barkov too low - is #4 - so you think top 3? or higher?

Dunn I wavered on for a variety of reasons.

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01-26-2013, 09:10 AM
  #41
stayinalive
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Originally Posted by chrisralph007 View Post
Thanks StayinAlive for your compilation. Understand many; intrigued by some.

Would be curious to hear you elaborate on some of there.

For the record, Vanelli narrowly missed the Top 100.

Barkov too low - is #4 - so you think top 3? or higher?

Dunn I wavered on for a variety of reasons.
Barkov should be at least Top 3. He has everything. Size, Skill, Shot, Vision. This kid has #1 C written all over him.

Dunn is a player i personally really like. Also one of the youngest players in the draf. I do get that he is only 511 an that high point production in the Q does not necessarily mean that much, but i would say he is a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder

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01-26-2013, 11:27 PM
  #42
chrisralph007
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Originally Posted by stayinalive View Post
Barkov should be at least Top 3. He has everything. Size, Skill, Shot, Vision. This kid has #1 C written all over him.

Dunn is a player i personally really like. Also one of the youngest players in the draf. I do get that he is only 511 an that high point production in the Q does not necessarily mean that much, but i would say he is a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder
Thanks for backing up your choices.

Dunn's going to be an interesting one to watch going forward - like to hear how his team interviews go. What did you think of his suspension in November?

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01-28-2013, 02:36 PM
  #43
chrisralph007
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The worst outlier in this ranking is actually Frederik Gauthier... And no one else. Otherwise, awesome rankings.
Thanks MXD; Gauthier became a victim to the numbers game for me; I love his potential and what he brings to the rink - other guys simply edged him out on my evaluation.

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02-25-2013, 08:51 AM
  #44
chrisralph007
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Drouin seemingly cementing my case for me:

The Human Hockey Highlight Film adding to his portfolio last night with a shift I'm sure most of you have seen already. What does he do for an encore?

Latest video link (Youtube)

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