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All Encompassing Tanking/Rebuilding/Selling at Deadline Thread 2.0

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Old
01-25-2013, 02:22 AM
  #376
DAChampion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterDecoy View Post
kinda hard tanking when the team keeps winning
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Originally Posted by JohnLennon View Post
Markov looks better than I could have hoped so far, but that just makes you wonder: why would you trade him at this point? There is so much experience and skill there from which players like Diaz and Subban can learn for years to come, and a defensive presence that Emelin and Gorges can take note of.
I hope people are not changing their minds after 3 games. It's a small sample size in various ways.

After 25 games? Maybe.

Regardless, going for the playoffs and tanking require the same strategy through to the trade deadline anyway: play the vets. The former requires playing the vets to win, the latter to boost the trade value of whoever we want to discard.

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01-25-2013, 03:22 AM
  #377
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Changing my mind would imply I agreed with you and lafleur's guy in the first place.

Small sample size it is. Still not convinced this team's built
to last. What were seeing is the markov effect. Someone with that information can post the Habs w/l record with and without markov. It's retarded how much better he makes us.

That said, things will adjust themselves eventually. Injuries will happen...


Last edited by MasterDecoy: 01-25-2013 at 05:33 AM. Reason: significant iphone autocorrect ****up
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Old
01-25-2013, 05:41 AM
  #378
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Injuries will happen...
You can argue the Subban situation is equivalent to a major injury.

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01-25-2013, 05:48 AM
  #379
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I hope people are not changing their minds after 3 games. It's a small sample size in various ways.

After 25 games? Maybe.

Regardless, going for the playoffs and tanking require the same strategy through to the trade deadline anyway: play the vets. The former requires playing the vets to win, the latter to boost the trade value of whoever we want to discard.
I don't know if you read your thread, but most people never shared your opinion in the first place, John Lennon being one of them.

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01-25-2013, 06:02 AM
  #380
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You can argue the Subban situation is equivalent to a major injury.
that's true! kinda surprised to see the team do so well without him. but let's be reality: it's not gonna last forever...

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01-25-2013, 06:33 AM
  #381
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I don't know if you read your thread, but most people never shared your opinion in the first place, John Lennon being one of them.
Don't try and create an argument where there is none.

I'm just saying we've had 3 games played and thus it is much too early to evaluate strategies people suggested prior to the season.

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01-25-2013, 09:29 AM
  #382
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Don't try and create an argument where there is none.

I'm just saying we've had 3 games played and thus it is much too early to evaluate strategies people suggested prior to the season.
Such as the tanking/rebuild strategy that you suggested ad nauseam?

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01-25-2013, 09:39 AM
  #383
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I've suggested 1 year of tanking, but I assumed Subban when I said so.

Without Subban, we need at least three years of tanking.
Agreed. There is a chance this play continues, but the teams with more talent will rebound, and we will have injuries.

I would love the Habs to play well all season and make the playoffs. We all would.

But we are not a contender, and we need one more top 10 pick.

I stick with the idea that Habs should offer Kaberle at the deadline. 5th round pick, fine.

Cole could be huge. Dangle him. See if the fish bite.

DD is also a possibility, if Gally sticks.

Weber of course, but not yet. We need the depth. There will be injuries.

Dangle Pleks to a near contender that needs him to get over that last hump too. No trade if not a 2013 first and a decent prospect of course.

I stand by the rebuild for picks this final year, as much as I love the play of the team at this time.

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01-25-2013, 10:11 AM
  #384
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Originally Posted by JohnLennon View Post
Markov looks better than I could have hoped so far, but that just makes you wonder: why would you trade him at this point? There is so much experience and skill there from which players like Diaz and Subban can learn for years to come, and a defensive presence that Emelin and Gorges can take note of.
Markov has NEVER been on my list of trade for rebuild. His upside in enormous. He could pull a Chelios/Lidstrom act and play well to 40. His conditioning, attention to health, and off ice behavior are impeccable, as far as I know.

My list of offer for picks is, by priority:

Kaberle without question. He has lost his job to Diaz.

Weber if we are out of it by deadline. Play Tinordi for the last 10 games if that is the case.

These two alone for any picks would make me happy. Rebuilds don't have to be for top ten first round picks only. They need to be for any picks, as best as you can get, to replace players that will not be in your cup window, and can be replaced by developing youth in the meanwhile. ALL picks are valuable. See Pollock, Sam.

Cole, for 1st round pick only, and a decent prospect, if we are out of it by deadline. I am very serious about this. I love the guy, but he is gold to a contending team, as Souray was. He will not be in our cup window, as much as I would love that. Yes he has 2 years left, but he will not be terrible, and will be trade-able again. I see him as a Recchi type, a hired vet gun for contenders. I will tear my hair out if we are 9th at the deadline and don't offer him.

Moen. For min. second round pick, or good prospect. Can help a contender right now, and next year. Prust makes him redundant. He is valuable as hell to a contender this year.

DD, if Gally sticks and is performing at C. I said this is a priority list, that is why he is down here, and not at the top. And I want DD to have a chance, but we shall see. I do not see this trade happening, mainly because I do not think any contending team will need him, or want him. He is not the Erik Cole last great piece for a cup.

Pleks if we are out of it by deadline, and we get a first and a good prospect minimum. Otherwise no deal. I do not see this happening. But explore it.

Non movers:

Marky? for me , no way. Upside is huge, and injury risk will reduce his value to below what we should get for him.

Gio, no, he is the Captain. He could be valuable, but it would be very bad form to trade him this year. He remains. He is the vet and the leader that all the others on this board say we need to nurture the youth. Fine.

What is so shocking about my list? Nothing. And note that Bourque and Eller are not mentioned. They are all upside, very low trade value right now. I want them to play.

Rebuild fans are not suggesting we trade every vet, but that this year, especially if we are 9th or lower at the deadline, we get something, anything for at least a couple of vets that are not going to help us in our contending window. The horror!


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Old
01-25-2013, 10:46 AM
  #385
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Deal one or two vets yes... no one is complaining about that, but putting pleks in that category is stupid. Our best player for picks and prospects... yeesh, I thought Lafleaurs guy brainwashed you or something
Pleks is not our best skater. Markov is. And I said offer Pleks, not trade him. No offer, no possible sucker desperate for a cup this year who gives you way too much. You're not thinking. There is zero harm in offering Pleks if we are 9th or lower at the deadline. Zero. I almost did not reply, as it is so obvious.

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01-25-2013, 10:49 AM
  #386
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Pleks is not our best skater. Markov is. And I said offer Pleks, not trade him. No offer, no possible sucker desperate for a cup this year who gives you way too much. You're not thinking. There is zero harm in offering Pleks if we are 9th or lower at the deadline. Zero. I almost did not reply, as it is so obvious.
I'm not thinking? You would be offering Plekanec for what? a Trade? Which means you'd be willing to trade a core piece of our team, right?

I thought it was so obvious

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01-25-2013, 10:50 AM
  #387
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Philly and Caps are stealing the tank idea.

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Old
01-25-2013, 10:51 AM
  #388
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Dude, please, stop avoiding arguments by pretending to be dumb.
I stopped there. Your first line of your 1,000 word reply. LG has never pretended to be dumb, nor is he dumb.

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01-25-2013, 10:53 AM
  #389
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Agreed. There is a chance this play continues, but the teams with more talent will rebound, and we will have injuries.

I would love the Habs to play well all season and make the playoffs. We all would.

But we are not a contender
, and we need one more top 10 pick.

I stick with the idea that Habs should offer Kaberle at the deadline. 5th round pick, fine.

Cole could be huge. Dangle him. See if the fish bite.

DD is also a possibility, if Gally sticks.

Weber of course, but not yet. We need the depth. There will be injuries.

Dangle Pleks to a near contender that needs him to get over that last hump too. No trade if not a 2013 first and a decent prospect of course.

I stand by the rebuild for picks this final year, as much as I love the play of the team at this time.
thing is, in a "half season" anything can happen... teams who already have players out for more than a month (Lupul, Hartnell for example) are in big trouble as a single month represent a good chunk of the season.

Teams dont have as much time to catch up if they start badly.

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01-25-2013, 11:02 AM
  #390
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Pretty much exactly what he said. When I speak of Detroit, I speak about how their organization is managed, how they go about doing things, their plan of action. It is the class of the league and has been for years. All we need is a stable management that makes the right decisions at the right times, make good, smart trades and draft well, while developing properly. That really is a recipe for success.
Detroit is absolutely not a valid example to take in arguing against a rebuild.

In two waves, they have had incredible and against all odds success with multiple low draft picks, including Federov, 74th, Lidstrom, 53rd, Datsyuk, 171st and Zetterberg 210th. You think this is repeatable? Really?

Then, in two overlapping eras, Stevie Y and Lidstrom developed into two of the top 20 players of modern times, if not top ten. I consider Yzerman to be as good as Gretzky, by the way. He was overshadowed by Gretz, but they played in very different circumstances. And I think Lidstrom is perhaps one the top 5 D men of all time. Not too bad.

You think we can do or hope for the same? Dream on. No team can depend on this.

And as far as I remember, Stevie Y was, UH, a 4th overall pick after Detroit stank for almost twenty years. Sound familiar?

The rest is corporate blather, signifying nothing. Good management blah blah. Detroit made one brilliant move,mining Sweden before anyone else.

And they had the luck to draft two of the very best players of all time, with a perfect overlap of about 7 years.

Watch what happens to them the next 5 years. The party is over.

Pittsburgh and Edmonton will both win the cup again long before Detroit does. With a bunch of top 10 draft picks. The shock and surprise.


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Old
01-25-2013, 11:12 AM
  #391
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Detroit is absolutely not a valid example to take in arguing against a rebuild. They have had incredible and against all odds success with multiple low draft picks, and Stevie and Lidstrom, two of the top 20 players of modern times. You think we can do the same? Dream on. No team can depend on this.

And as far as I remember, Stevie Y was, UH, a 4th overall pick after Detroit stank for almost twenty years. Sound familiar?

The rest is corporate blather, signifying nothing. Good management blah blah. Detroit made one brilliant move,mining Sweden before anyone else. Watch what happens to them the next 5 years. The party is over.
huh, you expected them to be on top forever or something ?

OF course at some point they'll be worse than they were, EVERY teams go trough these cycles, rebuild or not. Just like EVERY team has a top 5 pick or two in their rank, contenders or not.

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01-25-2013, 11:35 AM
  #392
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Building from youth isn't something I grew up with or ever had to worry about. My first memory was watching Jean Beliveau score his 500th goal from a black-and-white TV smaller than the screen I'm typing on now. I grew up in the 70s when Montreal's calendar for the new year included a pre-printed Stanley Cup parade date. Draft picks? Who cared. We were the Harlem Globetrotters and the rest of the league was the Washington Generals. Bottom line: I'm old and I'm spoiled. Taking the long view of winning meant waiting until next week.
I'm your age, and as spoiled by the hab. But I can tell you that high draft picks were as important then as they are now. You just did not realize what Sam Pollock was doing, which was constantly collecting high picks while winning. He rebuilt while winning. I've never seen it since, with the exception of Detriot, who did it with luck.

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01-25-2013, 11:38 AM
  #393
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Yes, being better on paper without actually doing anything is much more exciting.
The Pens were good on paper the year they drafted Sid too. Then they won the cup.

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01-25-2013, 11:42 AM
  #394
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
You have no idea what you're on about. I never said that higher picks carry as much risk as lower picks. Try making coherent arguments. We have names for when we people misrepresent someone's argument and then argue against the misrepresentation they've presented.

First round picks are still risky, many bust, all kinds, every year. We're not talking about top 5 picks that we're going to acquire for cole, gionta, and the like now are we. Or are you living in a bubble?

If you trade gionta for 20th overall pick there is a much higher chance that that player never comes close to Gionta at any time during his career. Wake the hell up.
Ve have Vays of making you talk...who's we? You and the committee?

So you prefer a broken 36 year old Cole, with no cup, to a 20th overall 18 year old pick with upside?

What's your plan?


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01-25-2013, 11:45 AM
  #395
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I also love how LafleursGuy looks at successful teams in hindsight and lists the players that were top 10 picks and labels them as proof positive the team were in a rebuild mode, but when montreal lands picks in top 10 it had nothing to do with being in rebuild mode. "We've been fighting for 8th place for 20 years, blablabla". How come other teams top picks were obvious rebuilding moves, but our own top picks were because we failed to make our ever ending push for 8th place?

I'd have np if he was consistent, but he's all over the map. He applies one standard to 29 teams and another to our own.
I'm not on the Committee you are addressing. This is not parliament, we don't have a speaker of the house. If you disagree with LG, why don't you address him directly?

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01-25-2013, 11:56 AM
  #396
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We do have similar outlooks, I think that's because a consensus is emerging that this year's Habs are awful , and that they won't win anything in the near future.
Exactement. I think the debate here is really between fans who actually think we are good, and have a chance at a cup, and those, including me, who from experience, know that we are not good, and have very little chance at a cup. All the rest is blather really.

The anger seems to come from fans who are offended at me calling the Habs a bad team. I have been aware of this of course. And I know why there is anger: I am removing hope with my negative statements. No one likes to have their hopes dashed. Me included. But I must be realistic, or perish.

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01-25-2013, 12:06 PM
  #397
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Exactement. I think the debate here is really between fans who actually think we are good, and have a chance at a cup, and those, including me, who from experience, know that we are not good, and have very little chance at a cup. All the rest is blather really.

The anger seems to come from fans who are offended at me calling the Habs a bad team. I have been aware of this of course. And I know why there is anger: I am removing hope with my negative statements. No one likes to have their hopes dashed. Me included. But I must be realistic, or perish.
No that's not it at all. I think this team won't do very well this season... but I'm against trading away our core vets for futures when we are pretty close to being a playoff contender.

Pleks, Markov, Cole, gorges... these guys should not be traded if we want to contend in the next few seasons. Some think we should entertain offers for pleks and gio and whatever at the deadline if we are not in a playoff position... but that would be unwise because playoff teams trying to get vets won't trade players who are NHL ready anytime soon, but rather picks and prospects, which would be a backwards move. We already have a lot of picks and prospects

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01-25-2013, 12:07 PM
  #398
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You can argue the Subban situation is equivalent to a major injury.
Arguing against your case. Admirable.

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01-25-2013, 12:19 PM
  #399
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No that's not it at all. I think this team won't do very well this season... but I'm against trading away our core vets for futures when we are pretty close to being a playoff contender.

Pleks, Markov, Cole, gorges... these guys should not be traded if we want to contend in the next few seasons. Some think we should entertain offers for pleks and gio and whatever at the deadline if we are not in a playoff position... but that would be unwise because playoff teams trying to get vets won't trade players who are NHL ready anytime soon, but rather picks and prospects, which would be a backwards move. We already have a lot of picks and prospects
Fair enough. Good post.

Unlike you, I do not think we will contend next year, and Cole therefore is expendable to me. We can find a stronger 30 year old UFA in 14-15 to replace him. Good UFAs go to contenders.

And if your read my post above, I believe we should keep Marky, and only offer Pleks for a chance at an insane offer.

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01-25-2013, 12:34 PM
  #400
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Detroit is absolutely not a valid example to take in arguing against a rebuild.

In two waves, they have had incredible and against all odds success with multiple low draft picks, including Federov, 74th, Lidstrom, 53rd, Datsyuk, 171st and Zetterberg 210th. You think this is repeatable? Really?

Then, in two overlapping eras, Stevie Y and Lidstrom developed into two of the top 20 players of modern times, if not top ten. I consider Yzerman to be as good as Gretzky, by the way. He was overshadowed by Gretz, but they played in very different circumstances. And I think Lidstrom is perhaps one the top 5 D men of all time. Not too bad.

You think we can do or hope for the same? Dream on. No team can depend on this.

And as far as I remember, Stevie Y was, UH, a 4th overall pick after Detroit stank for almost twenty years. Sound familiar?

The rest is corporate blather, signifying nothing. Good management blah blah. Detroit made one brilliant move,mining Sweden before anyone else.

And they had the luck to draft two of the very best players of all time, with a perfect overlap of about 7 years.

Watch what happens to them the next 5 years. The party is over.

Pittsburgh and Edmonton will both win the cup again long before Detroit does. With a bunch of top 10 draft picks. The shock and surprise.
I agree with you. Nobody will continue to pull sleepers in the draft anymore. That formula has been successful and the other 29 teams have wised up.

Draft can be a bit of crap shoot anyways.

I however do not agree with your point that Detroit didn't have good management. What is good is when you innovate, not copy. Detroit innovated their drafting and development team long before the rest of the league took notice and followed suit.

and i need a new avatar

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