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P.K. Subban resigns with Montreal, Jan. 28 (post #1)

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01-25-2013, 05:25 PM
  #376
Damaged Goods
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Originally Posted by KingForsberg View Post
Or maybe Karlsson is better defensively than you give him credit for.
Indeed. People tend to assume that players who are great offensively must be lacking defensively or vice versa, even if it has no basis in fact. The schema makes sense, but can often lead to an ecological fallacy when applied without care.


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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
If he is so important to your franchise then it's likely you should make an exception.
You should, but it looks like the Canadiens are too proud to make one (or they think they can get the player to cave). That's to their own detriment. I say the Flyers should make a massive offer sheet for him (just below the 4 1sts threshold) and force the Canadiens to make a decision based on dollars, not principles.

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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
As far as him being our #1, yeah he's slightly better than both Timonen and Coburn at this point in their respective careers. There's no doubt he would be our #1. That still doesn't change how I feel about acquiring him. It's not like we're acquiring Chris Pronger here.
I don't think your feelings about acquiring him are very well reasoned, to be blunt about it. "You don't win with players like him" is a cookie-cutter takedown that reeks of bias. I think you could argue that Subban is much more valuable than Pronger when the Flyers acquired him because he has many more good years ahead of him, no medical baggage (I am talking about c. 2009 medical baggage, not 2012 head trauma outcome bias), and the game is getting faster and faster.

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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
I'd love to throw something like a 1st + McGinn/Wellwood at Calgary for JayBo at the deadline honestly. Maybe they'd need more for him though because he's there defense at this point.

Maybe they tank for a high pick though. Who knows.
You don't believe in giving up some assets and paying PK Subban what he's worth, but you want to throw a 1st + at Calgary for 29-year-old Jay Bouwmeester and his $6.8 M cap hit? What!?

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01-25-2013, 05:47 PM
  #377
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
You should, but it looks like the Canadiens are too proud to make one (or they think they can get the player to cave). That's to their own detriment. I say the Flyers should make a massive offer sheet for him (just below the 4 1sts threshold) and force the Canadiens to make a decision based on dollars, not principles.
Any offersheet above $6.5m almost assures that Briere is bought out the year we have to re-sign Giroux, Schenn, and Couturier.

Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $8,410,976 - Four 1st Round Picks

I MIGHT go $6.73 and give up two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd, but that's a lot to give up just to push Montreal over the edge as far as retaining him goes.

I'd honestly offer the two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd if not a little more first to try to not go the offersheet direction. If it fails, I probably try to offersheet him for $6.33; same money as Timonen.

Also important to remember is that we're at the 50-contract limit. In order to offersheet him we need to either trade someone or said down Laughton.

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01-25-2013, 05:49 PM
  #378
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If we OS him and Montreal matches, we will be losing more than a chunk of picks. We'd also need to clear cap space.

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01-25-2013, 05:57 PM
  #379
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If we OS him and Montreal matches, we will be losing more than a chunk of picks. We'd also need to clear cap space.
Also true.

/sigh

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01-25-2013, 05:57 PM
  #380
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I don't know that I want him to do it, but a 6.2/year offer sheet wouldn't be the worst idea Homer ever had.

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01-25-2013, 05:59 PM
  #381
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Chris, those look like pre-new CBA numbers

I'd estimate that the numbers went down the same amount the cap did

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01-25-2013, 06:05 PM
  #382
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New numbers should be close to this :

Over $3,086,001 to $4,629,000 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $4,629,001 to $6,172,800 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,172,801 To $7,716,000 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $7,716,001 - Four 1st Round Picks

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01-25-2013, 06:17 PM
  #383
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If we OS him and Montreal matches, we will be losing more than a chunk of picks. We'd also need to clear cap space.
Do you mean if Montreal DOESN'T match?

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01-25-2013, 06:19 PM
  #384
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Any offersheet above $6.5m almost assures that Briere is bought out the year we have to re-sign Giroux, Schenn, and Couturier.

Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $8,410,976 - Four 1st Round Picks

I MIGHT go $6.73 and give up two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd, but that's a lot to give up just to push Montreal over the edge as far as retaining him goes.

I'd honestly offer the two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd if not a little more first to try to not go the offersheet direction. If it fails, I probably try to offersheet him for $6.33; same money as Timonen.

Also important to remember is that we're at the 50-contract limit. In order to offersheet him we need to either trade someone or said down Laughton.
I haven't seen those new compensation brackets. $6.728 seems like the right place to cap the offer then. Is there still a clause about the total amount of the contract?

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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If we OS him and Montreal matches, we will be losing more than a chunk of picks. We'd also need to clear cap space.
You mean if they don't match, right? I'd like to have that problem, and I see room to maneuver. Timonen's contract is up this summer, and I think Subban is the right candidate to fill that slot.

If it absolutely came down to choosing between retaining a Giroux/Couturier/Schenn/Subban core and buying out Briere in the summer of 2014, would that be such a difficult decision? You are takling about Briere's age 37 and 38 seasons.

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01-25-2013, 06:22 PM
  #385
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Oh! looks like I really was close with my math.

Looked up the 2010-11 offersheet compensation since the cap that year was the same as this year's cap.

$1,034,249 or below None
Over $1,034,249 to $1,567,044 Third-round choice
Over $1,567,044 to $3,134,098 Second-round choice
Over $3,134,098 to $4,701,132 First-round and third-round choice
Over $4,701,132 to $6,268,176 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,268,176 to $7,835,220 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $7,835,220 Four first-round choices

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01-25-2013, 06:23 PM
  #386
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
New numbers should be close to this :

Over $3,086,001 to $4,629,000 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $4,629,001 to $6,172,800 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,172,801 To $7,716,000 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $7,716,001 - Four 1st Round Picks
Oh crap. Thanks, I thought the other ones were a little high.

Yeah, I'd go $6.30 and make Montreal think about it.

We have a bloated roster right now, so with everyone healthy plus Subban at 6.30m, we'd look like this (send down McGinn, some are buried and count):

Hartnell (4.20) - Giroux (3.75) - Briere (6.50)
Simmonds (1.75) - Schenn (0.90*) - Voracek (4.25)
Read (0.90) - Couturier (0.93*) - Knuble (0.75)
Fedotenko (1.75) - Laughton (0.93*) - Talbot (1.75)
Sestito (0.61) - Wellwood (0.58) - Rinaldo (0.54)
Shelley (1.10)

Timonen (6.33) - Schenn (3.60)
Coburn (4.50) - Grossmann (3.50)
Foster (0.95) - Gervais (0.83)
Lilja (0.74) - Walker (1.70)
Bartulis^(0.10)
SUBBAN (6.30)

Bryzgalov (5.67)
Leighton (0.90)
Boucher (0.95)

TOTAL: 67.26
CAP: 70.20
SPACE: 02.94

LTIR: Pronger (4.94), Bourdon (0.63)

Apparently we can offersheet Subban. We'd just have to dump a contract or send Laughton back after this next game.


Last edited by CS: 01-25-2013 at 06:30 PM.
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01-25-2013, 06:24 PM
  #387
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Chris, those look like pre-new CBA numbers

I'd estimate that the numbers went down the same amount the cap did
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
New numbers should be close to this :

Over $3,086,001 to $4,629,000 - 1st round pick, 3rd
Over $4,629,001 to $6,172,800 - 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
Over $6,172,801 To $7,716,000 - Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
Over $7,716,001 - Four 1st Round Picks
Now I'm confused. Your numbers look much more familiar to me than Chris', but maybe I am misremembering the numbers from this summer.

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01-25-2013, 06:27 PM
  #388
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Now I'm confused. Your numbers look much more familiar to me than Chris', but maybe I am misremembering the numbers from this summer.
2005 Averaged Salary Current Averaged Salary Draft Pick Compensation
$660,000 and below $1,034,249 and below No compensation
$660,001 to $1,000,000 $1,034,250 to $1,567,043 Third-round pick
$1,000,001 to $2,000,000 $1,567,044 to $3,134,088 Second-round pick
$2,000,001 to $3,000,000 $3,134,089 to $4,701,131 First- and third-round pick
$3,000,001 to $4,000,000 $4,701,132 to $6,268,175 First-, second-, and third-round pick
$4,000,001 to $5,000,000 $6,268,176 to $7,835,219 Two first-round picks and a second- and third-round pick
$5,000,001 and above $7,835,220 and above Four first-round picks

That's what Wikipedia says.

The list I posted previously was from June 26th, 2012.

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01-25-2013, 06:28 PM
  #389
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Now I'm confused. Your numbers look much more familiar to me than Chris', but maybe I am misremembering the numbers from this summer.
Chris is using the summer numbers before the CBA was changed.

The numbers are based off percentages of the cap. For the last tier, it's 12% of the cap and above.

With the 70.2m cap, that's the 8.424m number

With a 64.3m cap, that's the 7.7m number or so

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01-25-2013, 06:29 PM
  #390
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I'll finish eating then I'll do a spreadsheet for it

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01-25-2013, 06:33 PM
  #391
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SOURCE: #Flyers have had NO discussions about making an offer to Subban.

Figured I would put this here for people who would want a better source than Eklund.

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01-25-2013, 06:36 PM
  #392
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Chris is using the summer numbers before the CBA was changed.

The numbers are based off percentages of the cap. For the last tier, it's 12% of the cap and above.

With the 70.2m cap, that's the 8.424m number

With a 64.3m cap, that's the 7.7m number or so
I thought we were at 70.2m cap this year, and then 64.30 next year...?

At least that's what capgeek.com leads me to believe.

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Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
Sam Carchidi
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SOURCE: #Flyers have had NO discussions about making an offer to Subban.

Figured I would put this here for people who would want a better source than Eklund.
Cool.

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01-25-2013, 06:37 PM
  #393
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
Sam Carchidi
‏@BroadStBull
SOURCE: #Flyers have had NO discussions about making an offer to Subban.

Figured I would put this here for people who would want a better source than Eklund.
if not subban then who else can we get especially if we make the playoffs?

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01-25-2013, 06:39 PM
  #394
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
I thought we were at 70.2m cap this year, and then 64.30 next year...?
Yes and no.

The cap for this year is 64.3m and 64.3m next year. But, per the transition rules, teams are allowed to exceed the cap this year but only to the 70.2m number.

Since the real cap is 64.3m, the numbers posted on wikipedia would be used :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_s...tion_.28NHL.29

edit :

I forgot that the real cap was 60m for this season.

The numbers on wikipedia are off.

Top tier should be 7.2m+ instead of 7.8m +

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01-25-2013, 06:41 PM
  #395
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
Sam Carchidi
‏@BroadStBull
SOURCE: #Flyers have had NO discussions about making an offer to Subban.

Figured I would put this here for people who would want a better source than Eklund.
Says he put it here for a better source than eklund

Posts a source just as bad

Carchidi is pretty bad with any type of player movement inside info

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01-25-2013, 06:42 PM
  #396
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Originally Posted by toughfighter83 View Post
if not subban then who else can we get especially if we make the playoffs?
I have no idea I'm thinking something similar to what we did last year with Kubina and Grossmann. Homer will probably give up another second for a solid guy we can plug into the lineup.

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01-25-2013, 06:45 PM
  #397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Says he put it here for a better source than eklund

Posts a source just as bad

Carchidi is pretty bad with any type of player movement inside info
i know the flyers beat writers are pretty bad in general but i figured he was at least better than eklund. lol

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01-25-2013, 06:45 PM
  #398
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Chris is using the summer numbers before the CBA was changed.

The numbers are based off percentages of the cap. For the last tier, it's 12% of the cap and above.

With the 70.2m cap, that's the 8.424m number

With a 64.3m cap, that's the 7.7m number or so
Quote:
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I'll finish eating then I'll do a spreadsheet for it
Poster of the Year.

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01-25-2013, 06:48 PM
  #399
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Says he put it here for a better source than eklund

Posts a source just as bad

Carchidi is pretty bad with any type of player movement inside info
Carchidi will ask Homer and Homer will say no. Carchidi will believe him and spread the word.

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01-25-2013, 06:49 PM
  #400
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Quote:
Sam Carchidi
‏@BroadStBull
SOURCE: #Flyers have had NO discussions about making an offer to Subban.
Quote:
Tim Panaccio
‏@tpanotchCSN
Flyers still not asking about Subban. Same as past fall.
https://twitter.com/BroadStBull/stat...61138540621825
https://twitter.com/tpanotchCSN/stat...62424304504832

there now you nerds can stop arguing about the salary cap

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