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Ownership Cluster**** Thread: NHL and GJ, Put Up or Shut Up!

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Old
01-25-2013, 05:12 PM
  #901
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Itís been an arduous and long process for Jamison, whose name first surfaced nearly a year ago. Heís faced challenges assembling investors and securing financing, heís faced legal road blocks from citizens groups and the ever-watchful eye of the Goldwater Institute, heís faced the uncertainty of Glendale politics -- and then the league and players threw a lockout at him.

One thing he has tried to avoid is a string of updates providing a very public view of the sales process. As he has stated multiple times, that is simply not his style. As a shrewd and experienced businessman, he prefers an understated approach. In other words, when thereís something to report, heíll report it.

In all our conversations with him, he has consistently outlined the possibility that this deal may not happen. But again, that is his experience as a businessman talking, not his concern that the deal will fall through.

He remains confident it will happen. He understands Coyotes fans would like some assurances, but with a week left, those will come in short order.

Given the way the Coyotes roll, however, we may not know until Jan. 30 or Jan. 31.
http://www.foxsportsarizona.com/01/2...39&feedID=9050

For the hopefuls.

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01-25-2013, 06:35 PM
  #902
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In all our conversations with him, he has consistently outlined the possibility that this deal may not happen. But again, that is his experience as a businessman talking, not his concern that the deal will fall through.
Here's the out. I had some hope earlier in the month. Not much now. Nothing will happen over the weekend and that leaves only 4 days and the deal with Glendale goes "POOF".

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01-25-2013, 06:47 PM
  #903
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Here's the out. I had some hope earlier in the month. Not much now. Nothing will happen over the weekend and that leaves only 4 days and the deal with Glendale goes "POOF".
I'm going to draw a conclusion from this lack of action. This has always been about price and investors. The asking price is $170 million. There's almost twice that on the table in guaranteed money. Now, if the NHL was really concerned about the team, they would work out an agreement with GJ. They could do all sorts of creative financing on their end, because there is guaranteed money there and they control the asking price. We can also safely assume that, had they been interested in doing so, the deal would have already closed. They understand that is not something you sit on, and a few weeks of ownership could be worth a few million dollars worth of revenue.

The depressing conclusion is that GJ never had major investors, and after receiving the generous lease, went about looking for some. I conclude that he hasn't found enough (and there's been plenty of chatter to indicate this) and won't meet the deadline. The NHL will not suddenly have a change of heart. They do not make impulse decisions. It's likely the future of the league has already been planned out many, many years. There are different scenarios, but we are now on track for one where the Coyotes do not exist in Phoenix. The NHL has planned for this, and is quite comfortable having 2 cities where they can softly land.

There is a very slim chance he strings it all together in the next week or so, but you'll forgive me for being skeptical. Buying sports teams never operates on that kind of schedule, nor does the amount of money involved. I do think he made an honest attempt to buy the team, while Hulszier was basically a joke. And with his taking so long, you have to question how much money he has to fund the surefire losses early on, even if he does turn it around which is no sure thing. I don't mean to be a horrible cynic, but you have to wonder why we've been strung along until 2 cities have approved arenas.

I don't think this will be an indictment on Phoenix as a hockey market. It will be the blueprint on how not to expand and run a team, however. To date, the Coyotes have never had an owner interested in hockey or really all that dedicated. Hard to judge a market with the sort of conditions we've seen. I don't think a team will be coming back anytime soon.

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01-25-2013, 06:55 PM
  #904
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Why would CoG keep it quiet if they have no intention of extending. I think if that's the case and the drop dead date passes, the very next council meeting will be about getting an arena manager to fill as many dates as possible. Moving forward. We'll know. Either they'll have a working relationship with GJ and there's still hope or they cut the rope and start making moves to limit losses immediately. Unless the NHL promises them something to keep it quiet, in which case the question would be, why couldn't they drop the price by that amount.
Why would CoG keep it quiet? 50m in rent payments and a hugely expensive hockey arena left without an anchor tenant looks bad. I understand it was the decision of the previous council but it would still be hugely controversial to simply wash their hands of the whole thing publicly. It has been an enormously costly investment and they have to at least appear to work p until the very last minute to preserve any potential return on those dollars spent. They need to say that they are doing all that they can within the scope of reason, and they need it to appear they are willing to do so until the bitter end. Anything less would be far too polarizing. The City will want to be able to claim they've been taken advantage of by big business. Not that they made a political, philosophical, tea party-esque plan to take a hard line against public funding of private business and run the team out of town. It will sit much better with the vast majority of their constituency to feign flexibility, open mindedness, creativity and a diligent work ethic until the NHL itself pulls the plug.

The NHL will be happy to allow for the charade in the interest of ticket sales.

Jamison isn't likely to step on the NHL's toes.

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01-25-2013, 09:43 PM
  #905
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Why would CoG keep it quiet? 50m in rent payments and a hugely expensive hockey arena left without an anchor tenant looks bad. I understand it was the decision of the previous council but it would still be hugely controversial to simply wash their hands of the whole thing publicly. It has been an enormously costly investment and they have to at least appear to work p until the very last minute to preserve any potential return on those dollars spent. They need to say that they are doing all that they can within the scope of reason, and they need it to appear they are willing to do so until the bitter end. Anything less would be far too polarizing. The City will want to be able to claim they've been taken advantage of by big business. Not that they made a political, philosophical, tea party-esque plan to take a hard line against public funding of private business and run the team out of town. It will sit much better with the vast majority of their constituency to feign flexibility, open mindedness, creativity and a diligent work ethic until the NHL itself pulls the plug.

The NHL will be happy to allow for the charade in the interest of ticket sales.

Jamison isn't likely to step on the NHL's toes.
That doesn't really make sense. If 2/1 rolls around and the lease agreement hasn't been signed, it's time to start moving towards finding a group to manage the arena. The NHL hasn't been doing it and won't be around after this season. They need to get a permanent manager in there at some capacity. Stability is needed, even if it's not what we want. They're going to lose money, but holding out some hope for wishes and dreams is like buying powerball tickets when you can't make rent instead of trying to find solutions. The council will need to make decisions. There will be discussions and votes that tell us it's over, if it comes to that.

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01-26-2013, 10:02 AM
  #906
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"it ain't over, 'til it's over" and I don't think there's going to be any overtime. I'm sure we're all hoping for the game winner to come in the final minutes, but the drama's just not there.

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01-26-2013, 10:42 AM
  #907
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If it becomes clear to the NHL and Jamison that he will not be able to complete this sale, we will NOT be informed. That's the thing you can be most confident about in this process. If Jamison misses the deadline, he will almost certainly maintain publicly that he's attempting to work with the city for an extension. The league will almost certainly maintain publicly that they continue to work with Jamison. The city will almost certainly maintain that they are doing all they can to facilitate a positive resolution to the matter. If the new council is vehemently against the 320m, and Jamison has no prayer of closing with every penny of that amount, I imagine all sides will keep that fairly close to the vest, while the NHL begins the process of exploring relocation. I imagine all sides will feel it best to keep up appearances of positive progress toward closing until the the last home game has been played. We will be given false hope from all sides until the day relocation is officially announced.

At this moment it appears very clear to all of us fans (for and against the Coyotes remaining in Glendale) that January 31st is a drop-dead date. I suspect most of us (myself included) will reverse that opinion in the event that January 31st comes and goes without resolution and all sides provide statements that the process is NOT dead in the water and they there is still HOPE for a positive resolution. They'll hint at unknown circumstances that might allow for a sale to be completed and we'll all have to accept that there might be.

In other words, it will be business as usual and nothing will have actually changed since the day Moyes filed for BK. We will be in the dark, and hanging our hopes on incredibly limited information.
I agree with this.....I also know how difficult it is to put an investment group together to purchase a high risk asset. If you have multiple investors writing 20 mill plus checks, everyone of them might want board seats, some control, and their own bells and whistles in the deal. Getting everyone to agree to one security is very difficult because of the risk. If there were less risk and a more standard type of business, it would be much easier.

Add to that, investors like this are always looking at other deals, so if a better deal comes along, if an old deal blows up and needs more cash, if they get cold feet, etc, they back away... All of this makes for a cat herding process, and it is not easy, likely why the group has investors in and then out along the way.

This why having one large investor for a risky transaction has a higher likely hood of going through. I am hoping this does go through, perhaps the tribe is involved or will get involved, lets hope so. I don't think the 30th is a drop dead date, I think the announcement of moving the franchise and that deal being consummated is the drop dead date. Until then, there is always hope something can be worked out with a buyer....

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01-26-2013, 11:54 PM
  #908
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4 days

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01-27-2013, 12:48 AM
  #909
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Does anybody know if it's Glendale or the NHL footing the bill for us this year.

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01-27-2013, 12:52 AM
  #910
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4 days
Yup and if the NHL is smart on this one, they would take that $60 Million relocation fee they got from the Atlanta Sale to reduce the overall cost of the team if it wasn't split among the other owners already seeing that the split in the money isn't going to make a world of difference for any NHL team.

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01-27-2013, 01:03 AM
  #911
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Does anybody know if it's Glendale or the NHL footing the bill for us this year.
The other 29 teams.

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01-27-2013, 01:07 AM
  #912
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nhl has only collected the 25 million from 2 years ago. The 25 promised last year was never collected and 20 million remains in escrow...if losses this year the nhl will lose not as much

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01-27-2013, 01:56 AM
  #913
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http://www.azcentral.com/community/g...l-ticking.html

Some quotes from council members. Some positive outlook from Yotes management. Still not a lot.

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01-27-2013, 02:02 AM
  #914
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Originally Posted by lockstock View Post
http://www.azcentral.com/community/g...l-ticking.html

Some quotes from council members. Some positive outlook from Yotes management. Still not a lot.
Grr fun times, well 31st it is

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01-27-2013, 03:21 AM
  #915
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Originally Posted by lockstock View Post
http://www.azcentral.com/community/g...l-ticking.html

Some quotes from council members. Some positive outlook from Yotes management. Still not a lot.
Quote:
“For the life of me, I can’t figure why, if everything is lined up, if he’s got the money in hand, why would he postpone this? That’s the only thing I haven’t been able to figure out,” Weiers said. “What would be the purpose of delaying it?”
Great question Jerry.

Okay. Let's do the math. Pretend that the Coyotes really do lose $30 million a year. I have my doubts about that claim and where the losses stem from (Moyes) but for the purposes of these calculations, let's run with it. With a $15 million subsidy right up front, you are halfway to even. If you go off what other similar arenas generate per seat, it isn't hard to calculate some numbers for Jamison. Pepsi Center does ~$5,700. They were #10 at what I looked at. US Airways was #21, so go with $2,500 per seat.

$2,500 per seat is roughly a cool $43 million pocketed by Jamison. Add in the subsidy and he is at $57 million, less maintenance and all that. Even if the Coyotes lost $30 million year over year, he still should come out ahead. This isn't all that different from the arrangement in Florida. The Panthers lose money, but the contract to run the arena is lucrative so the ownership comes out ahead. I'm pretty sure their subsidy, if it exists, pales in comparison. Naming rights are due up in 2016. The team is doing markedly better on the ice, and the valley is recovering. The new CBA increases the amount of revenue sharing for teams. If the NHL kept Phoenix where it is and expanded to QC and Seattle, the pie gets even bigger. It's not inconceivable that GJ turns it around with little more than basic competency and a decent team on the ice. On the high end, he makes bank.

There's actually a decent case for this, numerically. It's just whether or not investors see it as a worthwhile alternative (risk wise) to other investments and instruments. You are at the mercy of the market when you don't have the raw capital to finance the deal personally.

50/50

His *very* qualified statements do not have me optimistic.

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01-27-2013, 04:01 AM
  #916
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In this whole situation I feel sorry for Captain... He trusted to "Person from Jose" and now if that Person don't buy...

Oh no...

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01-27-2013, 09:52 AM
  #917
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Great question Jerry.

Okay. Let's do the math. Pretend that the Coyotes really do lose $30 million a year. I have my doubts about that claim and where the losses stem from (Moyes) but for the purposes of these calculations, let's run with it. With a $15 million subsidy right up front, you are halfway to even. If you go off what other similar arenas generate per seat, it isn't hard to calculate some numbers for Jamison. Pepsi Center does ~$5,700. They were #10 at what I looked at. US Airways was #21, so go with $2,500 per seat.

$2,500 per seat is roughly a cool $43 million pocketed by Jamison. Add in the subsidy and he is at $57 million, less maintenance and all that. Even if the Coyotes lost $30 million year over year, he still should come out ahead. This isn't all that different from the arrangement in Florida. The Panthers lose money, but the contract to run the arena is lucrative so the ownership comes out ahead. I'm pretty sure their subsidy, if it exists, pales in comparison. Naming rights are due up in 2016. The team is doing markedly better on the ice, and the valley is recovering. The new CBA increases the amount of revenue sharing for teams. If the NHL kept Phoenix where it is and expanded to QC and Seattle, the pie gets even bigger. It's not inconceivable that GJ turns it around with little more than basic competency and a decent team on the ice. On the high end, he makes bank.

There's actually a decent case for this, numerically. It's just whether or not investors see it as a worthwhile alternative (risk wise) to other investments and instruments. You are at the mercy of the market when you don't have the raw capital to finance the deal personally.

50/50

His *very* qualified statements do not have me optimistic.
30 million in losses isn't the same thing as 30 million in operating cost. You have to factor that in as well... I think I heard the team costs about 80-90 million to run?

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01-27-2013, 10:42 PM
  #918
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This should be an interesting week no matter what happens.

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01-27-2013, 11:11 PM
  #919
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I think if we all deserve one thing it's to not be jerked around anymore, we have been left in the dark and succumbed to three plus years of endless speculation and rumors.

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01-27-2013, 11:25 PM
  #920
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I think if we all deserve one thing it's to not be jerked around anymore, we have been left in the dark and succumbed to three plus years of endless speculation and rumors.
I think if we all can expect one thing, it's to continue to be jerked around for the next four-ish months. Probably even if Jamison closes tomorrow. We'll probably have to deal with some lawsuit or some crap. Some drama.

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01-27-2013, 11:53 PM
  #921
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I think if we all can expect one thing, it's to continue to be jerked around for the next four-ish months. Probably even if Jamison closes tomorrow. We'll probably have to deal with some lawsuit or some crap. Some drama.
I agree, after everything we've been through, I doubt anything positive happens that will provide any relief from the anxiety of not knowing whether or not the Coyotes will stay.

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01-28-2013, 12:07 AM
  #922
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I think if we all can expect one thing, it's to continue to be jerked around for the next four-ish months.
Four months? That's all? I wish I shared your optimism.

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01-28-2013, 12:45 AM
  #923
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Four months? That's all? I wish I shared your optimism.
I'd imagine if Jamison has not closed by then the nhl will sell for relo.

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01-28-2013, 01:08 AM
  #924
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The only thing going for us is that hockey is playing right now. The team will not be moved in the middle of a season.

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01-28-2013, 02:01 AM
  #925
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I'd imagine if Jamison has not closed by then the nhl will sell for relo.
The lease is only renewed via guaranteed money to pay for losses. That won't be happening this year. The NHL has an out every single season built into the lease. Hard to imagine them not invoking it when they've got possibly 2 bidders wanting to pay over sticker for a franchise.

It is what it is.

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The only thing going for us is that hockey is playing right now. The team will not be moved in the middle of a season.
Without an extension or closing, it's a done deal they are gone. The players are not stupid. Every single one will be worried about their families. The team will implode.

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