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01-27-2013, 02:27 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by IceManCat View Post
We are having serious issues with our transition game and puck battles, an offensive animal like Jones can really help us out in that department. The goals will come later
By who?

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01-27-2013, 02:28 PM
  #52
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Sorry, but 20 goals is not equivalent to 40 goals, no matter who your Dman is.
I disagree. It's impossible to score 40 goals as a defenseman so they should be valued in the context of defensemen.

My point is that the value of a franchise D-man is the same as a franchise forward, especially since we have neither one. We're actually more likely to have a franchise forward than a franchise D-man, at this point. You pick the best player available, and in this case I like the odds of the 6'4," .208 lbs. Jones as the pick most likely to fulfill his potential.

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01-27-2013, 02:29 PM
  #53
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By who?
By the guys in our system? Including Jones if we draft him...

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01-27-2013, 02:29 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by pb1300 View Post
By who?
We have the top prospect system in the NHL out of all those prospects none of them have made the NHL or established themselves in it yet. Ill rely on that

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01-27-2013, 02:31 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by IceManCat View Post
We are having serious issues with our transition game and puck battles, an offensive animal like Jones can really help us out in that department. The goals will come later
I agree; we're so bad at this. So small, so soft, so slow. In order to score goals, you need puck possession and a transition game. Did we even have a scoring chance in that first game against Ottawa?

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01-27-2013, 02:37 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Erick View Post
I agree; we're so bad at this. So small, so soft, so slow. In order to score goals, you need puck possession and a transition game. Did we even have a scoring chance in that first game against Ottawa?
Too few to remember lol, its been pretty sad the way we are playing in our own zone it almost seems like the other teams fore-checkers are on steroids or jet packs, they continuously push back

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01-27-2013, 02:38 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Erick View Post
I disagree. It's impossible to score 40 goals as a defenseman so they should be valued in the context of defensemen.

My point is that the value of a franchise D-man is the same as a franchise forward, especially since we have neither one. We're actually more likely to have a franchise forward than a franchise D-man, at this point. You pick the best player available, and in this case I like the odds of the 6'4," .208 lbs. Jones as the pick most likely to fulfill his potential.
Its nearly impossible for a Dman to score 20 goals a season. Lets go by your earlier comparison, which was Stamkos and Weber. Stamkos' average goals a season is 45, while Weber's is 16. That is a difference of another top six forward, and then some! If Jones and MacKinnon reach their potential, you still go with the forward that can put the puck in the net, for a team which is in desperate need of goal scoring.

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01-27-2013, 02:43 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IceManCat View Post
We are having serious issues with our transition game and puck battles, an offensive animal like Jones can really help us out in that department. The goals will come later
He'll never have same skill set as Karlsson so no..

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01-27-2013, 02:48 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by pb1300 View Post
Its nearly impossible for a Dman to score 20 goals a season. Lets go by your earlier comparison, which was Stamkos and Weber. Stamkos' average goals a season is 45, while Weber's is 16. That is a difference of another top six forward, and then some! If Jones and MacKinnon reach their potential, you still go with the forward that can put the puck in the net, for a team which is in desperate need of goal scoring.
You are still missing my point, though, I think. In the hypothetical situation that we're drafting 1st overall, we should want the best player and the best player isn't always the one who scores more goals.

Ilya Kovalchuk could probably score 45 on a yearly basis. Does that mean forwards like Ilya Kovalchuk are more valuable than defensemen like...say, Nick Lidstrom?

If you want to stick to the current comparison, I think you're really underrating Shea Weber's impact on the game. Again, 16 goals from him is not like saying 16 goals from the average 16-goal player. He shuts down the opponents top players in addition to all the goals and plays approximately half the game.

Why do you think Nashville makes the playoffs every year despite the fact that their best player is Shea Weber, a defenseman? They have no star forwards...

Goal prevention is just as important as goal scoring. And, again, we're talking about a 2-way defenseman here, not Mike Weaver.
Guys like Shea Weber are a rare commodity. Just as rare as Stamkos. Seth Jones is a rare commodity. How many prospects enter the NHL Draft with his size and his skill? There's a reason why he's #1 on the list posted...

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01-27-2013, 02:49 PM
  #60
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We need legit first line players. We never have anyone in the top 30 in scoring. Flash was 51st in league scoring. It's by far our biggest weakness. We also need someone to free up guys or play with guys like Hubs/Bugstad, other top offensive players.

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01-27-2013, 02:49 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by IceManCat View Post
We have the top prospect system in the NHL out of all those prospects none of them have made the NHL or established themselves in it yet. Ill rely on that
Again I ask you, by who? Huberdeau is more of a playmaker than a sniper, and outside of Bjugstad, who are projected to be top liners? Grimaldi is a project, and years away from us hoping he is anything like St Louis. Howden has the wheels, but no where near the skill of MacKinnon, and Shore seems to be a solid 3rd line center.

While we do not have a Jones on defense, we still have Soupy, Kulikov, and Gudbranson, who make a great top three for a defensive core. When you add in guys like Petrovic, Robak, and Matheson, we have enough talent to build the back end, in front of Markstrom. I agree with what Erick said, that we dont have an elite Dman or forward prospect yet, but IMO, its clear that this team would benefit more from a prospect like MacKinnon.

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01-27-2013, 02:50 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
He'll never have same skill set as Karlsson so no..
So defensemen should never be drafted unless they're Erik Karlsson? Not to mention you have no proof that he absolutely cannot become that type of impact player...

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01-27-2013, 02:53 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by pb1300 View Post
Again I ask you, by who? Huberdeau is more of a playmaker than a sniper, and outside of Bjugstad, who are projected to be top liners? Grimaldi is a project, and years away from us hoping he is anything like St Louis. Howden has the wheels, but no where near the skill of MacKinnon, and Shore seems to be a solid 3rd line center.

While we do not have a Jones on defense, we still have Soupy, Kulikov, and Gudbranson, who make a great top three for a defensive core. When you add in guys like Petrovic, Robak, and Matheson, we have enough talent to build the back end, in front of Markstrom. I agree with what Erick said, that we dont have an elite Dman or forward prospect yet, but IMO, its clear that this team would benefit more from a prospect like MacKinnon.
Who do you think is the better prospect? That's all that really matters. If you think it's MacKinnon, fine. But who do you think is better in your opinion?

If you believe Jones is the better player, we can draft the best player and trade one of our young D-men for a forward.

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01-27-2013, 02:55 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Erick View Post
Who do you think is the better prospect? That's all that really matters. If you think it's MacKinnon, fine. But who do you think is better in your opinion?

If you believe Jones is the better player, we can draft the best player and trade one of our young D-men for a forward.
There might not be any available and if they know we're looking to get one that's going to drive the price up.

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01-27-2013, 02:56 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Erick View Post
Who do you think is the better prospect? That's all that really matters. If you think it's MacKinnon, fine. But who do you think is better in your opinion?

If you believe Jones is the better player, we can draft the best player and trade one of our young D-men for a forward.
Jones is the best D prospect, MacKinnon tops at forward. Both are evenly projected to go first overall. Given the state of the franchise, MacKinnon is my choice because I believe a top scorer could really take this core we have over the top.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick View Post
You are still missing my point, though, I think. In the hypothetical situation that we're drafting 1st overall, we should want the best player and the best player isn't always the one who scores more goals.

Ilya Kovalchuk could probably score 45 on a yearly basis. Does that mean forwards like Ilya Kovalchuk are more valuable than defensemen like...say, Nick Lidstrom?

If you want to stick to the current comparison, I think you're really underrating Shea Weber's impact on the game. Again, 16 goals from him is not like saying 16 goals from the average 16-goal player. He shuts down the opponents top players in addition to all the goals and plays approximately half the game.

Why do you think Nashville makes the playoffs every year despite the fact that their best player is Shea Weber, a defenseman? They have no star forwards...

Goal prevention is just as important as goal scoring. And, again, we're talking about a 2-way defenseman here, not Mike Weaver.
Guys like Shea Weber are a rare commodity. Just as rare as Stamkos. Seth Jones is a rare commodity. How many prospects enter the NHL Draft with his size and his skill? There's a reason why he's #1 on the list posted...
I understand what you are saying, but a 40 goal scorer on this team is more important than a top tier Dman. We need scoring help, period, and a top line forward is more important to this team. And you make it sound like Jones is the clear cut prospect heading into the draft, when in fact, most scouts have it even between he and MacKinnon.

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01-27-2013, 02:57 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by RainingRats View Post
There might not be any available and if they know we're looking to get one that's going to drive the price up.
Unless that team is desperate to acquire a defenseman.

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01-27-2013, 03:15 PM
  #67
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We need 1st-line talent. We need a Kane or Toews. Or both.

Prospects who could be that..

Huberdeau
Bjugstad
Howden
Grimaldi

Rau?
Shore?
Trocheck?

Would much rather add MacKinnon. Gives us better odds of one or maybe two of those guys becoming a 1st-line talent..

MacKinnon
Huberdeau
Bjugstad
Howden
Grimaldi

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01-27-2013, 03:17 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
He'll never have same skill set as Karlsson so no..
How many Stanley Cups has Karlsson gotten his team? By that standard neither Lidstrom nor Pronger have the skill set of Karlsson, because neither move the puck the way he does. Brian Leetch comes to mind in comparison to Karlsson that is certainly not the only way defenseman make an impact

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01-27-2013, 03:18 PM
  #69
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I also think if we are heading to the bottom fast that we trade weiss at the deadline. I would hope the return is another 1st round draft pick. Probably catch slack for this.

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01-27-2013, 03:21 PM
  #70
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I also think if we are heading to the bottom fast that we trade weiss at the deadline. I would hope the return is another 1st round draft pick. Probably catch slack for this.
If we're near the bottom at the trade deadline. You can kiss Weiss goodbye.

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01-27-2013, 03:23 PM
  #71
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Absolutely not.

However, it's worth noting that with all the D prospects in our system being mentioned, none of them are proven either with the exception of Kulikov...who's a proven 2nd pairing defenseman after 3 years in the league and showing no real improvement now in his 4th year.

While we do have prospects on D, NONE of them have the complete upside package that Jones has. Even Gudbranson, (who was drafted high), had questionable upside offensively at the time he was drafted, and he did nothing to change that belief last year.

You look at the gamethreads and while we're frustrated with the goal-scoring or lack thereof, there are equally frustrating comments in regards to the D-core.

You look at our current D-core, and I think the majority would agree that:
-Jovo and Kuba look like pylons.
-Mike Weaver is a defensive D-man with no offense and no long-term future here/with any team.
-Keaton Ellerby is a 24-year-old in his 4th year who might be a good top-4 D-man one day. Maybe.
-Kulikov is in his 4th year. He's a nice guy to have, but he's also proving to be not all that special. He does not play against the opponents top players. He can make some plays, but he also does not score much because he has a lot of trouble hitting the net, which has been a consistent thing for him.
-Gudbranson, way too early to tell. But he's obviously pretty raw, offensively.
-That leaves Campbell who's the best we have overall, but also at 33 years of age.

That leaves guys like Matheson, Petrovic, etc. in the system who might be good. Same could be said about our forwards too, they might be good.

The point is our defense isn't without flaws to say we couldn't use a massive upgrade.

Jones projects to be a special player. For comparison's sake, you compared him to Shea Weber and I think that's fair. Same exact size (Jones will probably add another 20-25 lbs. when it's all said and done), similar skillset. We have some nice young defensemen, but do we really see any of these guys currently in the system becoming the next Shea Weber?

Stamkos (who you compared MacKinnon to) is a great goal-scorer, but is his impact on the team really greater than Shea Weber's impact? Weber entered the NHL in '05-06; Nashville has missed the playoffs one time since his arrival, and they were in contention that year they missed, as well.
I can turn the argument around though and say that none of our forward prospects are proven. Huby looks nice, but we don't yet completely know what we have in him. We don't have anyone in the system who could become the next Stamkos either. Huby is more of a playmaker and he isn't even a great skater, let alone an elite one.

Sure, our future defense isn't so spectacular that it couldn't use a massive upgrade, but you can say the same about our forwards. I think we will have a great defense in 4-5 years. I think we will have a good offense, but with MacKinnon added to the mix I think it could be fantastic. And more time spent in the offensive zone will relieve pressure in the D zone. A good offense is the best defense.

I agree with most of your assessment of our current D, with the exception of Kulikov and Gudbranson. I think Kulikov has been playing fine this season, even with the penalties last night. He has the potential to get a lot better, and he's still only 22 years old. He's very promising. I think Gudbranson showed some offensive potential last season. He probably won't ever be a high-scoring guy, but he could become a consistent 30-40 guy. He was maybe our best defenseman last season at getting shots on net aside from Garrison and Campbell. That's from a 19 year old, and he has a cannon of a slapshot.

I see Matheson and Petrovic as near locks to be good NHLers. We really have a promising young D core. Campbell is 33 but he has several years of good hockey left in him. Add in Ellerby, Robak, Bengtsson, and Racine, and we have some nice potential there. I'm certainly not worried about our defense for the forseeable future.

Is Stamkos' impact on a team greater than Weber's impact? Idk, but you are making it sound like Weber has so much more impact on a team, when really it's pretty negligible. Stamkos is a top 5 forward, Weber is a top 5 d-man. Like I said, it really comes down to who do you want, a forward or a defenseman?

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01-27-2013, 03:23 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by IceManCat View Post
How many Stanley Cups has Karlsson gotten his team? By that standard neither Lidstrom nor Pronger have the skill set of Karlsson, because neither move the puck the way he does. Brian Leetch comes to mind in comparison to Karlsson that is certainly not the only way defenseman make an impact
Both of you are right. I guess I'm just not willing to invest any more picks in defensemen. Not until we get some 1st-line talent.

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01-27-2013, 03:30 PM
  #73
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Impact young forwards on the team: Jonathan Huberdeau (19)
Impact young forwards in the system: Nick Bjugstad (20), Rocco Grimaldi (20), Kyle Rau (20), Quinton Howden (21), Drew Shore (22), Vincent Trocheck (19)

Impact young defensemen on the team: Dmitry Kulikov (22), Erik Gudbranson (21)
Impact young defensemen in the system: Mike Matheson (18), Alex Petrovic (20), Colby Robak (22)

Did I miss anybody? Why is the first set of lists considered a necessity while the second set is...not a necessity at all?
The caliber of forwards and caliber of defensemen in the system seem pretty even to me.

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01-27-2013, 03:30 PM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
We need 1st-line talent. We need a Kane or Toews. Or both.

Prospects who could be that..

Huberdeau
Bjugstad
Howden
Grimaldi

Rau?
Shore?
Trocheck?

Would much rather add MacKinnon. Gives us better odds of one or maybe two of those guys becoming a 1st-line talent..

MacKinnon
Huberdeau
Bjugstad
Howden
Grimaldi
I wouldn't even say Howden is potential 1st line talent. I think he is a definite NHLer, but I see him as a good 2nd or 3rd liner. Grimaldi is always going to be a question mark until he actually proves himself as a top 6 forward, because of his size. Trocheck I don't think has 1st line talent. He is a very complete versatile player, but he doesn't have high end offensive skill. Rau is similar to Grimaldi, bigger and grittier, but not without question marks of his own. Knight I think will be a solid NHLer, but probably a 3rd line center. We have tons of depth. I think our offense will be good, but without more elite skill added, it won't be great.

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01-27-2013, 03:32 PM
  #75
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I can turn the argument around though and say that none of our forward prospects are proven. Huby looks nice, but we don't yet completely know what we have in him. We don't have anyone in the system who could become the next Stamkos either. Huby is more of a playmaker and he isn't even a great skater, let alone an elite one.
For me, I don't really care about the respective positions. I say go with Jones because I think he's best available. It seems like the people against Jones don't want him at all simply because they very much prefer any comparable forward (which, in this case, would be MacKinnon).

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