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The Race to the Bottom - Rebuild Thread.

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01-28-2013, 01:44 PM
  #526
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Originally Posted by ErnieLeafs View Post
Yeah, you can judge it that way, especially given the teams need for high end talent in the system, and considering that Rattie and Saad have both played games in the NHL, and are far better prospects, picked MUCH later than Percy....

Yeah, he was a terrible value pick at #25. Far superior players went after him.

Have a look at how Dimitrij Jaskin is doing... we talk about needing size and jam in the top-6, while a guy like this goes to St.Louis at 41, after they picked Rattie with the 32nd pick.

Yeah, you want to talk about scouts getting the job done?

Trocheck in the 3rd @ pick 64?

Enough said.
Can you remind me just when Ty Rattie played in the NHL? Cause by my count he's played 0 (zero) games.

I don't consider Trochek or Jaskin "getting it done" as they've played 0 games with a total of 0 points in the NHL. Look at someone like Brad Ross as a guy who put up a ton of jr. points and people are writing off as an NHler already.

Also look at players like Schenn, Boychuk, Boedker and Tikhonov as players who played NHL games early in their career... and then someone like Jake Gardiner, who was still playing College hockey as a reason why you shouldn't be judging prospects based on how much they have played in the NHL so far.

I think we can all agree that Gardiner is a better player with far higher upside than any of those 4. Percy was a project when we drafted him and still is now. Give him time to pan out before dismissing him.

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01-28-2013, 01:47 PM
  #527
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Originally Posted by topched View Post
Can you remind me just when Ty Rattie played in the NHL? Cause by my count he's played 0 (zero) games.

I don't consider Trochek or Jaskin "getting it done" as they've played 0 games with a total of 0 points in the NHL. Look at someone like Brad Ross as a guy who put up a ton of jr. points and people are writing off as an NHler already.

Also look at players like Schenn, Boychuk, Boedker and Tikhonov as players who played NHL games early in their career... and then someone like Jake Gardiner, who was still playing College hockey as a reason why you shouldn't be judging prospects based on how much they have played in the NHL so far.

I think we can all agree that Gardiner is a better player with far higher upside than any of those 4. Percy was a project when we drafted him and still is now. Give him time to pan out before dismissing him.
A lot of teams passed on Saad, that means there are a lot of bad scouts according to his logic.

Oh brother.

Must be nice sitting on that perch, cherry picking arguments.

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01-28-2013, 01:50 PM
  #528
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I think what gives me some optimism is that even though it doesn't look like it, this team can be about half done a 5 year rebuild.

If we assume we'll build around a core of Kadri, JVR, Rielly, Gardiner and 2 top 5 picks this year and next.

Now to speed things up we trade tradable guys, namely Kessel THIS trade deadline. He could fetch us A LOT. Consider Kabby got a late 1st and a prospect with months left on his contract. Kessel has a year and a half and is 3 times the player.

That's why I like that Nonnis took over. There's a really good chance that this will happen. At least he won't make any quick fixes and the team will naturally sink to the bottom, like what is happening now.

If we trade some of our better players for good return it could speed things up quite a bit and in 2 years we could have a legit core of talent. maybe not like edmonton but maybe not too far off, if you consider we'd have 3 consecutive top 5 picks.

The only thing that could curse is some flukey wins to give us a false hope of optimism and maybe another attempt at a quick fix.

Btw, i fully think ownership would let this happen because of their desire to have some legit superstars to build the team around and brand, and also by looking at what the jays did.

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01-28-2013, 01:50 PM
  #529
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Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Morrison was the head scout in 06,

Guess how many players he drafted in 06 are playing in the NHL?

Kulemin, Tlusty, Stalberg, Reimer, Holzer, Komarov. 6 players out of 7 picks to play in the NHL, not a bad %.

Like all scouts he has made some questionable picks, Blacker and Ryan for example that come to mind. But he is more than qualified in making decisions on players.

Tom Nilsson, Jerry D'amigo, Leivo, Sparks, Frattin are all examples of good scouting as promising later picks.
What´s wrong with Blacker and Ryan? I thought they progressed well and likely play in the NHL one day. Have I missed something.

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01-28-2013, 01:51 PM
  #530
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Originally Posted by DirtyDion03 View Post
And let's talk about Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk going in the late rounds too. Come on man. It's easier to judge a draft from hindsight, but Percy can still be a really good defenseman, just because he's not playing now doesn't mean anything.
They've done just fine... Drafts aren't all about the 1st round, but they're certainly not all about the late rounds either. The wings have consistantly made solid picks, picking in less than preferable draft positions. They've been able to maintain a level of play that is excellent, given where they've picked, while running a proper system of scouting, drafting, and development.

You don't even have to mention the big 3 you named there.

How about.....

Fedorov
Kindl
Abdelkader
Brenden Smith
Nyquist (NHL ready)
Knuble
Osgood
Anders Eriksson
Dandenault
Holmstrom
Petr Sykora
Jiri Fischer (a solid talent until the heart issue)
Kronwall
Kopecky
Hudler
Fleischmann
Filppula

EVERY SINGLE ONE of those picks was after pick #20 in their respective drafts, outside of Holmstrom....

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01-28-2013, 01:53 PM
  #531
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Originally Posted by johnny_rudeboy View Post
What´s wrong with Blacker and Ryan? I thought they progressed well and likely play in the NHL one day. Have I missed something.
Disappointed in their progress and upsides. I expect more from my second rd picks than a projected 5th or 6th D man, and a tweener 3rd liner more 4th liner.

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01-28-2013, 01:58 PM
  #532
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Originally Posted by ErnieLeafs View Post
They've done just fine... Drafts aren't all about the 1st round, but they're certainly not all about the late rounds either. The wings have consistantly made solid picks, picking in less than preferable draft positions. They've been able to maintain a level of play that is excellent, given where they've picked, while running a proper system of scouting, drafting, and development.

You don't even have to mention the big 3 you named there.

How about.....

Fedorov
Kindl
Abdelkader
Brenden Smith
Nyquist (NHL ready)
Knuble
Osgood
Anders Eriksson
Dandenault
Holmstrom
Petr Sykora
Jiri Fischer (a solid talent until the heart issue)
Kronwall
Kopecky
Hudler
Fleischmann
Filppula

EVERY SINGLE ONE of those picks was after pick #20 in their respective drafts, outside of Holmstrom....
Fedorov was before Russians were allowed in the NHL, that was more a gamble than good scouting. Is there a superstar on that list? All it points to is Detroit likes to draft Euro's. Not a very compelling list if you ask me.

The only thing I will add that I like from Detroit, is they let their prospects develop. They are very good at this. No argument there.

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01-28-2013, 02:00 PM
  #533
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Originally Posted by topched View Post
Can you remind me just when Ty Rattie played in the NHL? Cause by my count he's played 0 (zero) games.

I don't consider Trochek or Jaskin "getting it done" as they've played 0 games with a total of 0 points in the NHL. Look at someone like Brad Ross as a guy who put up a ton of jr. points and people are writing off as an NHler already.

Also look at players like Schenn, Boychuk, Boedker and Tikhonov as players who played NHL games early in their career... and then someone like Jake Gardiner, who was still playing College hockey as a reason why you shouldn't be judging prospects based on how much they have played in the NHL so far.

I think we can all agree that Gardiner is a better player with far higher upside than any of those 4. Percy was a project when we drafted him and still is now. Give him time to pan out before dismissing him.
Mixed up with Sven Baertschi, also of Portland Winterhawks fame.

But either way, I stand by the rest.
Gardiner WAS NOT picked by this scouting staff.
Boedker is a FAR BETTER player than Schenn can dream of, and is showing this year that he's ready to break out.

Jaskin and Trocheck are far better prospects than Brad Ross, even though I really like Ross.

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01-28-2013, 02:05 PM
  #534
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Originally Posted by ErnieLeafs View Post
Mixed up with Sven Baertschi, also of Portland Winterhawks fame.

But either way, I stand by the rest.
Gardiner WAS NOT picked by this scouting staff.
Boedker is a FAR BETTER player than Schenn can dream of, and is showing this year that he's ready to break out.

Jaskin and Trocheck are far better prospects than Brad Ross, even though I really like Ross.
You missed the point I thin.

I wasn't comparing Schenn and Boedker etc. I was saying that you pointing to Saad as being better than Percy because he's already played in the NHL is meaningless.

Because players like Schenn, Boedker, Boychuk and Tikhonov were playing in the NHL the year they were drafted and a player like Jake Gardiner took 3 years to get to the NHL and is a better player now than any of them.

And why are you comparing Jaskin and Trochek with Ross? They weren't even the same draft year.

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01-28-2013, 02:07 PM
  #535
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Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Fedorov was before Russians were allowed in the NHL, that was more a gamble than good scouting. Is there a superstar on that list? All it points to is Detroit likes to draft Euro's. Not a very compelling list if you ask me.

The only thing I will add that I like from Detroit, is they let their prospects develop. They are very good at this. No argument there.
Right.... Mogilny had already come to NA when Fedorov did. That is a weak argument that holds ZERO water. Fedorov didn't blaze any trails.

There doesn't have to be a superstar, the point of the post was to show how a good scouting staff finds talent throughout the draft.

Look at the article on '08. The results speak for themselves.

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01-28-2013, 02:12 PM
  #536
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You missed the point I thin.

I wasn't comparing Schenn and Boedker etc. I was saying that you pointing to Saad as being better than Percy because he's already played in the NHL is meaningless.

Because players like Schenn, Boedker, Boychuk and Tikhonov were playing in the NHL the year they were drafted and a player like Jake Gardiner took 3 years to get to the NHL and is a better player now than any of them.

And why are you comparing Jaskin and Trochek with Ross? They weren't even the same draft year.
If you can't see that Saad is the better prospect, I can't help you. He's playing on CHICAGO'S scoring lines, while Percy is still playing in the CHL, when the Leafs have had pretty bad defense. Chicago has better scoring options up front, than we have defensive options in back, so wouldn't it stand to reason that it would be MORE difficult for a guy like Saad to play his role on a team with Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, Bolland, etc., than it would be for Percy to make a mark on a blueline that has Mike Kostka playing 30 minutes a night??

I used the example of Jaskin and Trochek with Ross, because you used them in the same comparison, so I was simply stating, whether or not they were in the same draft year, that they're higher upside, more talented prospects than him, regardless of their birth years.

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01-28-2013, 02:13 PM
  #537
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Originally Posted by ErnieLeafs View Post
Right.... Mogilny had already come to NA when Fedorov did. That is a weak argument that holds ZERO water. Fedorov didn't blaze any trails.

There doesn't have to be a superstar, the point of the post was to show how a good scouting staff finds talent throughout the draft.

Look at the article on '08. The results speak for themselves.
Mogilny defected Ernie, get it right today. Bure and Fedorov were good guesses by Vancouver and Detroit the Iron Curtin was coming down thus they were low picks.

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01-28-2013, 02:16 PM
  #538
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Mogilny defected Ernie, get it right today. Bure and Fedorov were good guesses by Vancouver and Detroit the Iron Curtin was coming down thus they were low picks.
How did Fedorov get here.... you don't even know.... lol

He left his team in Seattle on a red-eye to Detroit.... Do your homework, before you try to insult someone.

Bure and Fedorov were examples of scouts putting in the work, and their due dilligence, despite circumstance, in order to find a player that would make an impact on their clubs. That's what good scouts do.

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01-28-2013, 02:26 PM
  #539
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Disappointed in their progress and upsides. I expect more from my second rd picks than a projected 5th or 6th D man, and a tweener 3rd liner more 4th liner.
I have to disagree with you there. Of course it is better if we can hit the jackpot in a draft and find a first pairing d-man, starting goalie or first liner. And I do want us to take a chance on projects as well who have a high chance to be a bust but if they make it improve our team.
But going for players who have a high possibility of becoming NHL:ers even in minor roles is also something we should aim to do. First of all it is always fun to see a young guy progress within the system and finally end up playing a part on the team even if it is as 3rd pairing d-man. And it also save us money seeing as it is cheaper, easier to get a few bonus years after their ELC is up then it is to sign depth guys from free agency.

Armstrong and Komisarek cost a lot to sign in terms of cap space seeing as they came from free agency, if we could get an aggressive 3rd liner (Ross) and a bottom 4 d-man (Blacker) from within then they will most likely re-sign for a lot less meaning there is more money to spend on free agents of higher quality or to keep the stars we hopefully will develop.

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01-28-2013, 02:30 PM
  #540
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Originally Posted by ErnieLeafs View Post
Right.... Mogilny had already come to NA when Fedorov did. That is a weak argument that holds ZERO water. Fedorov didn't blaze any trails.

There doesn't have to be a superstar, the point of the post was to show how a good scouting staff finds talent throughout the draft.

Look at the article on '08. The results speak for themselves.
Let me sit on my perch, The Detroit 2007 draft, the results speak for themselves. Don't they?

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01-28-2013, 02:31 PM
  #541
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I have to disagree with you there. Of course it is better if we can hit the jackpot in a draft and find a first pairing d-man, starting goalie or first liner. And I do want us to take a chance on projects as well who have a high chance to be a bust but if they make it improve our team.
But going for players who have a high possibility of becoming NHL:ers even in minor roles is also something we should aim to do. First of all it is always fun to see a young guy progress within the system and finally end up playing a part on the team even if it is as 3rd pairing d-man. And it also save us money seeing as it is cheaper, easier to get a few bonus years after their ELC is up then it is to sign depth guys from free agency.

Armstrong and Komisarek cost a lot to sign in terms of cap space seeing as they came from free agency, if we could get an aggressive 3rd liner (Ross) and a bottom 4 d-man (Blacker) from within then they will most likely re-sign for a lot less meaning there is more money to spend on free agents of higher quality or to keep the stars we hopefully will develop.
That's fine, I want a little more bang in the second rd. Finn was a great pick for instance, has top 4 D man written all over him.

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01-28-2013, 02:34 PM
  #542
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What´s wrong with Blacker and Ryan? I thought they progressed well and likely play in the NHL one day. Have I missed something.
Blacker and Ryan are useless in terms of changing the fortunes of a franchise. By the time they're done developing in 2017 or whatever, you will have two players who are no better than Ian White and probably David Steckel ever were.

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01-28-2013, 02:37 PM
  #543
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People are doubting our scouts after we picked Rielly in that draft? Rielly could easily end up being the steal of the draft.. Not only that, but Finn could also be as well. Having two potential steals in a draft is a pretty good draft, IMO. You people are never satisfied.
Rielly was a top five pick, you're not doing your job if you didn't walk away with someone who could be the top player in his draft, and it was only one damn pick.

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Simple solution, an one that is well within the bounds of reality:

Demote Morrisson. He's a decent scout, but he's not earning his pay like some of the others in his trade. Look at scouts who have done well on staffs like the Bruins, Panthers, Red Wings, Habs, etc., and pay them. This is where a huge money franchise like Toronto pays dividends.

We're not getting our money's worth out of many guys, other than Bergmann, so fix it...
I'd have to agree with a demotion. I can't see the Leafs scouting staff walking away from a draft with the kind of haul and imagination even a team like Buffalo did with Grigensons and Grigorenko without the benefit of a top ten pick. I can't imagine a GM in their right mind who'd listen to Morrison go to bat for a prospect or two and engineer a couple of trades to satisfy his scout the way Regier did in 2012. The guy simply doesn't have the credibility or track record. I mean, Tyler Biggs, are you kidding me?

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01-28-2013, 02:40 PM
  #544
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Blacker and Ryan are useless in terms of changing the fortunes of a franchise. By the time they're done developing in 2017 or whatever, you will have two players who are no better than Ian White and probably David Steckel ever were.
Even if that's what they become, that means they have become contributing NHL'ers who we didn't have to pay over the table for in free agency.

That's still a win, in the books of most. A big part of this franchise's problems is overpaying for guys to fill these spots through free agency. I would be ecstatic if we ended that trend.

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01-28-2013, 02:42 PM
  #545
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That's fine, I want a little more bang in the second rd. Finn was a great pick for instance, has top 4 D man written all over him.
We all do. And I also think Finn have a bright future ahead of him, but a lot can happen.
He could end up being the next Keith or the next nothing.


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Blacker and Ryan are useless in terms of changing the fortunes of a franchise. By the time they're done developing in 2017 or whatever, you will have two players who are no better than Ian White and probably David Steckel ever were.
But if we can have a player in the organization from age 18 to age 23 when he starts playing for the Leafs that player will be comfortable with the system we play, the coaches will know his strengths and weakness a lot better then if he was picked up from free agency. And hopefully he will have formed a bound with the other drafted players who he by then know really well even if they have not played together. I think a strong team spirit with a good system beats any team based on individual skills quickly assembled through trades and free agency.

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01-28-2013, 02:43 PM
  #546
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Fedorov was before Russians were allowed in the NHL, that was more a gamble than good scouting. Is there a superstar on that list? All it points to is Detroit likes to draft Euro's. Not a very compelling list if you ask me.

The only thing I will add that I like from Detroit, is they let their prospects develop. They are very good at this. No argument there.
"It's not the flash and flair guys that win cups! Look at Boston! Blah blah blah..."

How many cups are on that list?
Now how many cups would be on that same list if we made the same one for our club......?

Yeah, proof is in the pudding..

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01-28-2013, 02:45 PM
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I have to disagree with you there. Of course it is better if we can hit the jackpot in a draft and find a first pairing d-man, starting goalie or first liner. And I do want us to take a chance on projects as well who have a high chance to be a bust but if they make it improve our team.
But going for players who have a high possibility of becoming NHL:ers even in minor roles is also something we should aim to do. First of all it is always fun to see a young guy progress within the system and finally end up playing a part on the team even if it is as 3rd pairing d-man. And it also save us money seeing as it is cheaper, easier to get a few bonus years after their ELC is up then it is to sign depth guys from free agency.
The Leafs have never had a problem drafting ordinary minor role NHLers, the issue now is if you want a total rebuild, you need the scouting staff to deliver above and beyond the standard so-so results.

Over the past ten years we've had guys like Stralman, Colaiacovo, White, Harrison, Mitchell, Tlusty, Kulemin, Gunnarsson, Stalberg, Bell, Reimer, Stajan all come up and be decent NHL citizens, but every team produces players like this and when you spend five plus years waiting on Blacker and Ryan level prospects you're not going anywhere.

We need to be pulling those Marchand, Lucic, Edler, Zetterberg, Datsyuk level steals AND hitting on our top five picks AND make good trades in order to dig ourselves out of this awful mess. When MLSE is spending so much money on management and scouting, these are the results they should be demanding of Morrison and company. Not happy that our veteran laden Marlies team is contending for championships.

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01-28-2013, 02:48 PM
  #548
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Things to consider:

1. Phil Kessel has a contract which is expiring at the end of the 2013-2014 season, making him an UFA. He has a contract right now at $5.4M per year. Consider what he's going to want for a contract. $7M? $8M? I just get the feeling that we're going to have to pay extra to keep him here. Though honestly, I think that if we have Tyler Bozak here, we oddly have a huge chip in our favour. Kessel is an awkward guy, and I don't think he makes friends easily. He's one of the few players in the league that I think something like this would really matter for.

2. Bozak is a UFA at the end of this year. I think he should get locked up soon, regardless of whether or not we tank/rebuild. If we are going to target a potential 1st line center in this next draft, then Bozak is a great candidate to temporarily hold that spot down until our guy develops. He's at $1.5M per year right now. I think that we could sign him for something in the range of 3.0-3.5 for 3-5 years. Again, a big bargaining chip if we want to try and convince Kessel to re-sign.

3. Dion Phaneuf expires and is a UFA at the same time as Kessel. I think his case is different that Kessel's. While Kessel is going to push for max cash and term, I think we could get Phaneuf at a slight discount. If we could get him for $7M per, and I think that would be good for us, and for him. I think he might have trouble getting more than that on the open market. He's our captain, and like all captains I think you get the benefit of his sense of obligation for the team.

4. We have Grabovski locked up until 2018. We have one of the best (imo at least) 2nd line centers in the league. That's a stanley cup championship quality 2nd line center.

5. We have JVR also locked up until 2019. I think he'll eventually develop into a 1st line LW. We also have Lupul locked up for that same term. When healthy, he's a top 20 1st line winger. Can play both LW and RW.

My idea:

1. Trade Kessel. I'm not saying this because I undervalue how great he is. I think he's one of the best wingers in the game. I also think that if you can team him to go into the corners, get a little bit physical, etc he would arguably be in the top 3. However, I don't think he can do it. If you can trade Kessel for something like ROR + a 1st, then I think Nonis should do it. The risk of having Kessel walk at the end of next season terrifies me. Having him walk would put that trade with Boston into a whole new level of terrible.

2. Tank this season. McKinnon, Jones, Barkov and Drouin are all potential franchise players. Building our team around Kessel and Phaneuf hasn't worked. We are trying to build a team around 2 players. That really is a stretch. It worked in Pittsburgh because they are the two best players in the game. Even they have MAF and Letang. Think about building a team around: McKinnon, Rielly, Gardiner, Phaneuf. That's 4 quality players.

3. Go hard after one of the upcoming UFA goalies. I don't want Mike Smith, because he's a product of Dave Tippet. We have: Backstrom, Howard, Theodore this year. And in 2014, we have Lundqvist, Miller, Kipper, Hiller, Halak, Dubnyk. I would be surprised if we couldn't acquire ONE UFA goalie over the next two offseasons. And we do have the extra year window because we wouldn't be expecting to be a contender for 3-4 years.

We could have something like this in 2-3 years:

Lupul - McKinnon - JVR
xxxxx - Grabovski - xxxxx
Frattin? - Kadri - Biggs?
Ross? - xxxxxxxxx - Broll?

Phaneuf - Rielly
Gardiner - Finn?
Percy? - xxxxxxxx

UFA Goalie
Reimer

The xxxxx's could easily be filled via Free Agency.

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Old
01-28-2013, 02:49 PM
  #549
Interactif
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A lot of talk about how great Detroit has done with their picks and how awful Morrison has drafted.

Morrison only became head scout in 06, so there are still prosects developing. But here are the pertinent facts of drafts 06-07 compared with all world Detroit.


Detroit

06
-Emmerton 78GP
-Matthias 210GP
-Mursak 45GP

Toronto
06
- Tlusty 232 GP
- Kulemin 308 GP
- Reiner 74 GP
- Holzer 3GP
- Stalberg 202 GP
- Komarov 5 GP

Detroit
07
- Smith 19 GP
- Andersson 5 GP

Toronto
07- No first or second rd pick
- Frattin 59 GP
-Gunnarson 192 GP

Leafs drafted better, theory of us drafting bad debunked. As we move fwd, we can judge the 09, 10, 11, 12 drafts.

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Old
01-28-2013, 02:51 PM
  #550
johnny_rudeboy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
The Leafs have never had a problem drafting ordinary minor role NHLers, the issue now is if you want a total rebuild, you need the scouting staff to deliver above and beyond the standard so-so results.

Over the past ten years we've had guys like Stralman, Colaiacovo, White, Harrison, Mitchell, Tlusty, Kulemin, Gunnarsson, Stalberg, Bell, Reimer, Stajan all come up and be decent NHL citizens, but every team produces players like this and when you spend five plus years waiting on Blacker and Ryan level prospects you're not going anywhere.

We need to be pulling those Marchand, Lucic, Edler, Zetterberg, Datsyuk level steals AND hitting on our top five picks AND make good trades in order to dig ourselves out of this awful mess. When MLSE is spending so much money on management and scouting, these are the results they should be demanding of Morrison and company. Not happy that our veteran laden Marlies team is contending for championships.
So you want to draft a Lucic but think the Biggs pick was worthless? They are very similar players. Big, cocky power forwards who can score goals and fight it out with any one.

Marchand and Ross are very similar players. Smaller, agitating pest types with some skill.

You can not get a Lucic or a Marchand if you dont take your chances with a Biggs or a Ross. Not saying they will pan out as good as the Bruins ones but we still need to take a chance on them.

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