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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread II

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:13 PM
  #151
EagleBelfour
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
I hope to write up a quality bio on him, but the big points are:
1. No major weaknesses.
2. He can play the wing, and there aren't clearly better wingers at this point.
3. Elite glue guys are one of the rarest things in the ATD.
4. Proven chemistry with Nighbor.
1. True
2. I thought a decent case was made that Hooley Smith as a RW was just not as effective. I'm looking forward to read on the success of Nighbor and Smith on the same line
3. True, but how much value you have to give away for a 'glue' guy?
4. See #2

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01-28-2013, 07:15 PM
  #152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Ditto with the Neely pick. Instead of trading down half a round (or waiting a round or two) some GMs jump on a guy early. That is part of team management (or mismanagement). A GM foregoes better value in a pick and if that happens often enough a team will suffer.

The more GMs think of needs (team chemistry) and wants (homer picks) the worse the draft order will be as a reflection of all-time merit of the players themselves. Hence the concern I've stated previously that the team building concept has gone from beside the point to becomin the point in the ATDs! Times, they are a changin'. So be it. One of the best features ever added to the ATDs has been the bios; one of the worst may be the playoffs. Ah, well. The nature of the beast,... has changed.
With the annual runs on defensemen and the fact that teams usually draft defensive players for the lower lines, rather than just all-star teams, was the draft ever a reflection of all-time merit?

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:18 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
I hope to write up a quality bio on him, but the big points are:
1. No major weaknesses.
2. He can play the wing, and there aren't clearly better wingers at this point.
3. Elite glue guys are one of the rarest things in the ATD.
4. Proven chemistry with Nighbor.
Didn't Sturminator show last draft that most of his production came from C and that he SHOULDN'T be played on the wing?

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:18 PM
  #154
Nalyd Psycho
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
1. True
2. I thought a decent case was made that Hooley Smith as a RW was just not as effective. I'm looking forward to read on the success of Nighbor and Smith on the same line
3. True, but how much value you have to give away for a 'glue' guy?
4. See #2
2. Seeing as about half his career was at RW, I'd say that's phooey.
3. I felt that after Lach and Abel were gone, there really wasn't much drop in talent, if any at all.

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:19 PM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
1. True
2. I thought a decent case was made that Hooley Smith as a RW was just not as effective. I'm looking forward to read on the success of Nighbor and Smith on the same line
3. True, but how much value you have to give away for a 'glue' guy?
4. See #2
I see the point of getting "glue guys" early - it lets you get steals later on as some offensive talent is bound to fall. Basically giving up value now to get value later. The key is to get value at some point in the draft.

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:21 PM
  #156
EagleBelfour
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I see the point of getting "glue guys" early - it lets you get steals later on as some offensive talent is bound to fall. Basically giving up value now to get value later.
This make sense.

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:22 PM
  #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
With the annual runs on defensemen and the fact that teams usually draft defensive players for the lower lines, rather than just all-star teams, was the draft ever a reflection of all-time merit?
Not in recent years. Back in 2004-2007, yeah. We used to think about the BPA more than team needs. The draft was front and central to the whole thing. Nowadays so many judge the success or failure of their draft participation based on the performance of their teams in the playoffs (I was flabbergasted in 2009 when a GM said he was quitting the ATDs because his team didn't do well in the playoffs; now I get what's been going on in his head). Hell, I remember when I first suggested we do a regular season ranking (I wanted to encourage the evaluation of role players, specifically defensive forwards, bottom-6 talent that were all-time greats). I hadn't anticipated the way things have gone. C'est la vie.

It's clear that the ATDs are now more about team building than about the BPA. Though criticizing picks made too early still has a logic to it as a waste of GM assets: trade down and get the guy who plays the same position with the same array of assets but who is better at it. These kinds of criticism still have weight. Things haven't entirely descended into homer picks writ large.

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:23 PM
  #158
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The Philadelphia Flyers are very happy to select LW Alexander Ovechkin



Ovechkin will combine with Cyclone Taylor to form a terrifying top line duo in transition, or anchor our 2nd line as an elite goal scorer.

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:25 PM
  #159
TheDevilMadeMe
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I think this is a good spot for Ovechkin.

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Old
01-28-2013, 07:25 PM
  #160
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Has Hooley Smith risen in every single ATD? He must be on pace to be drafted in the first round around 2020.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
i am not ignoring henri richard's contribution to habs' dominance. playing against top opponents and outscoring them is extremely useful, and underappreciated, imo, in comparison to pure offense. numbers posted by overpass give more credence to that famous comment that during richard's time with habs, he was their most valuable player.
By the way, the table TDMM quoted earlier is selected for Richard's prime seasons and includes a low-scoring rookie year from Ullman. Here's a table with the even strength scoring leaders over Ullman's prime.

Even strength scoring leaders from 1958-59 through 1970-71
Player GP ESG ESA ESP ESP/G
Bobby Hull 888 390 321 711 0.80
Stan Mikita 845 246 383 629 0.74
Norm Ullman 911 281 371 652 0.72
Henri Richard 825 215 375 590 0.72
Gordie Howe 911 267 378 645 0.71
Jean Beliveau 812 230 333 563 0.69
Frank Mahovlich 886 314 275 589 0.66
Andy Bathgate 756 202 286 488 0.65
Alex Delvecchio 924 217 345 562 0.61

I'm not convinced Ullman is the best fit with Jagr, but I do think he's a good pick at this point.


Last edited by overpass: 01-28-2013 at 07:53 PM. Reason: error in Beliveau's numbers
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Old
01-28-2013, 07:28 PM
  #161
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What are the numbers isolated for the period when both Richard and Ullman were in their primes? (Richard's prime ended a couple years earlier, right?)


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 01-28-2013 at 08:03 PM. Reason: unquoted obsolete table
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Old
01-28-2013, 07:45 PM
  #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Not in recent years. Back in 2004-2007, yeah. We used to think about the BPA more than team needs. The draft was front and central to the whole thing. Nowadays so many judge the success or failure of their draft participation based on the performance of their teams in the playoffs (I was flabbergasted in 2009 when a GM said he was quitting the ATDs because his team didn't do well in the playoffs; now I get what's been going on in his head). Hell, I remember when I first suggested we do a regular season ranking (I wanted to encourage the evaluation of role players, specifically defensive forwards, bottom-6 talent that were all-time greats). I hadn't anticipated the way things have gone. C'est la vie.

It's clear that the ATDs are now more about team building than about the BPA. Though criticizing picks made too early still has a logic to it as a waste of GM assets: trade down and get the guy who plays the same position with the same array of assets but who is better at it. These kinds of criticism still have weight. Things haven't entirely descended into homer picks writ large.
They haven't descended into it at all! Other than the Cam Neely pick, where a first time GM panicked after his list had just been decimated, what picks could possibly be classified as homer picks?

I mean, my first draft (which was a Minor League Draft), I panicked because every team was picking a goalie, so I picked one too at horrible value. These things happen, especially to inexperienced GMs.

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01-28-2013, 08:02 PM
  #163
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I just found and corrected an error in the earlier table I posted that had affected Beliveau's numbers. I had thought they looked too low and they were.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
What are the numbers isolated for the period when both Richard and Ullman were in their primes? (Richard's prime ended a couple years earlier, right?)
1958-59 to 1966-67 is probably the most fair time period to both Richard and Ullman. Ullman first hit the top 10 in even strength points in 1958-59 (his last season as Gordie Howe's centre.) This time period cuts out Richard's wonderful 57-58 season but that happens when you try to pick a prime that matches two players.

Even strength points from 1958-59 to 1966-67
Player GP Sum of ESG Sum of ESA Sum of ESP ESP/G
Bobby Hull 604 261 221 482 0.80
Henri Richard 570 170 262 432 0.76
Stan Mikita 549 150 249 399 0.73
Norm Ullman 618 197 238 435 0.70
Andy Bathgate 606 176 246 422 0.70
Jean Beliveau 551 146 232 378 0.69
Gordie Howe 622 170 254 424 0.68
Frank Mahovlich 600 204 181 385 0.64
Alex Delvecchio 628 148 211 359 0.57

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Old
01-28-2013, 08:20 PM
  #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
They haven't descended into it at all! Other than the Cam Neely pick, where a first time GM panicked after his list had just been decimated, what picks could possibly be classified as homer picks?

I mean, my first draft (which was a Minor League Draft), I panicked because every team was picking a goalie, so I picked one too at horrible value. These things happen, especially to inexperienced GMs.
My homer pick was tipped by the playoff numbers....both Hooley Smith and Ovechkin were part of the top 6 I wanted to pick, with Gilmour the guy I really wanted at CTR.

Only Ovechkin comes close to Neely's playoff numbers on a per/game basis, of which a 4 to 7 game series is paramount but his regular numbers have dropped dramatically, in every category in the last two seasons and he has yet to get past a 2nd round in the playoffs, (and I'm an Ovechkin fan).

Neely is also a glue guy with grit, another reason why I liked Gilmour, the guy is gritty with a ton of heart. It was Forsberg or Federov that I was waiting on originally and maybe I should've gone with the playmaker in hindsight with Gilmour but I still like Neely's payoff when it mattered and I was hoping to build around him with Cup winners.

That being said, this virgin newbie is sticking by his pick.

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Old
01-28-2013, 08:20 PM
  #165
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Early research shows I made a slight mistake, it should read: Hooley Smith, RW/C/D. (He was also apparently the back-up goalie in New York...)


Last edited by Nalyd Psycho: 01-28-2013 at 08:27 PM.
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Old
01-28-2013, 08:59 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
The Minnesota Fighting Saints are pleased to select, from Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Hooley Smith, C/RW
No no no no no no no no. Just no.

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Old
01-28-2013, 09:02 PM
  #167
EagleBelfour
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I really don't understand this Hooley Smith love.

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01-28-2013, 09:05 PM
  #168
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I would assume there's just a large chunk of teams drafting at the same time who would all benefit from his presence. Sakic, Esposito, Nighbor...they all want Hooley.

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Old
01-28-2013, 09:07 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I really don't understand this Hooley Smith love.
Unique skill set: fast, physical, can score and pass pretty well, and capable of playing as a RW (although better at C).

There are very few RWs who have all those skills, but yeah, if Smith was a LW with the same skillset, he probably doesn't go until round 5 or 6.

And then there is the fact that he was apparently better at C than RW, but that's hard to talk about until more players are drafted.

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01-28-2013, 09:10 PM
  #170
EagleBelfour
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Engine View Post
I would assume there's just a large chunk of teams drafting at the same time who would all benefit from his presence. Sakic, Esposito, Nighbor...they all want Hooley.
There's a lot of great glue guys available later in the draft. Hooley Smith might be an elite glue guy (but is he one at the RW position?), but there's still elite hockey players available. That's my point of you, but as I said in the past, we judge a team on 25 selections, not one.

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01-28-2013, 09:17 PM
  #171
Nalyd Psycho
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Also keep in mind that if there were all-star teams throughout his career he'd have been a 5 or 6 time post season all-star. And that's not counting votes lost to the fact that he was a one position player in only about 25% of his seasons.

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Old
01-28-2013, 09:21 PM
  #172
EagleBelfour
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
Also keep in mind that if there were all-star teams throughout his career he'd have been a 5 or 6 time post season all-star. And that's not counting votes lost to the fact that he was a one position player in only about 25% of his seasons.
Didn't Hooley Smith only receive a 2nd and 4th Hart placement in his entire career, never receiving a single vote in any other years? It's hard to believe he would get 6AS.

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Old
01-28-2013, 09:22 PM
  #173
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With you on this one EB. Hooley Smith is skyrocketing up the ranks like no one else, and why? I just don't think he's talented enough to crack 100 either.

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Old
01-28-2013, 09:23 PM
  #174
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The Pittsburgh Bankers select LW Johnny Bucyk

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Old
01-28-2013, 09:27 PM
  #175
EagleBelfour
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Quick change of plan there JFA

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