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Hawks 2, Red Wings 1 (OT) - PK (Not Subban) Rules Edition

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Old
01-28-2013, 10:18 PM
  #126
slappipappi
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Faceoffs percetages is largely exaggerated.

Firstly, the fact (based on last year) that the best team was about 54% and the worst about 46% shows that extreme randomness goes into faceoffs, otherwise there would be some extreme good and bad teams.

And secondly,based on about 50 faceoffs per game, the best team wins about 2 more faceoffs per game than the average team, and about 4 more faceoffs than the worse team.

It's simply not a large swing either way. Better to have the best player playing than marginal player who might win you the odd extra faceoff.

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01-28-2013, 10:36 PM
  #127
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The true aces have a lot of value. I agree the best players should play but in a critical situation with little time left, on a team like the Hawks, if I have a bottom 6 faceoff ace and Toews just came off, I'm definitely sending him in for that draw. The guys that push 65% are a pretty sure bet, especially going against a guy that isn't better than average. When you have Sharp and Kane on the 2nd line, you just want to get the puck.

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01-28-2013, 11:41 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by coldsteelonice84 View Post
The true aces have a lot of value. I agree the best players should play but in a critical situation with little time left, on a team like the Hawks, if I have a bottom 6 faceoff ace and Toews just came off, I'm definitely sending him in for that draw. The guys that push 65% are a pretty sure bet, especially going against a guy that isn't better than average. When you have Sharp and Kane on the 2nd line, you just want to get the puck.
Who are the 65% guys that can play with Kane and Sharp? Who are the 65% guys?

For the most part a player's FO% is already baked into his performance overall. The fact that a player like Kruger can be (slightly) below average in FO% and still have very good adjusted +/- and Corsi even with tough FO starting points indicates to me that his losing one more than his wins every 3 or 4 games is not a big factor.

And if you want a guy to win FOs, Mayers is one of the best.

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01-29-2013, 01:28 AM
  #129
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The guys who push 65% as true aces in the bottom 6 are players like Malhotra pre-injury, Perrault and Johnson with us.

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01-29-2013, 01:38 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by slappipappi View Post
Faceoffs percetages is largely exaggerated.

Firstly, the fact (based on last year) that the best team was about 54% and the worst about 46% shows that extreme randomness goes into faceoffs, otherwise there would be some extreme good and bad teams.

And secondly,based on about 50 faceoffs per game, the best team wins about 2 more faceoffs per game than the average team, and about 4 more faceoffs than the worse team.

It's simply not a large swing either way. Better to have the best player playing than marginal player who might win you the odd extra faceoff.
Ick. I dunno. I feel like this needs a lot of study. It's not the kind of thing that lends itself to eyeballing. 4 extra possessions per game adds up fast, especially when you consider that hockey possessions aren't discrete and there's a pronounced field-position-like effect.

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01-29-2013, 01:58 AM
  #131
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Dude, stars of the game DON'T MEAN ANYTHING!!


So tired of people here using them to try to prove something or getting bent out of shape when a guy isn't named. It's nothing more than a publicity stunt. It was started off as an advertisement for Christ sake. The media votes on them 10 minutes before the game is over anyways, and leaves a spot open if the game is close.
I could say in other words... media guys agree with me that Krüger had a great game for his role.
You are right, 3 Stars mean nothing but it's a reward for players like Krüger. He made it without scoring. That should tell you enough that he had a good game and it's stupid to call him out now. Guy plays a great season and is one half of the best PK unit in this young season. I leave it at that. MM is just a hater. Funny that he comes up with this stuff after Krügers best game in the NHL so far.


and about that hustle stuff MM, haven't you seen the games and the 3-5 times he hustled back to break up the good scoring chances for the opponents? I'm sure you've seen it but just won't admit it

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01-29-2013, 02:00 AM
  #132
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Anyone else notice Martini hasn't posted anything since Leddy scored the game winner? Lol

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01-29-2013, 02:47 AM
  #133
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Our third line has good chemistry. They are the one line that tries cycling the puck deep in the off zone. I've been pretty critical of Bickell but he has made two great assists(both Stalberg goals) and and nice redirect goal. Just need to get Mayers out of their for Bollig and sign a veteran center like Moore instead of trading another draft pick.

PS. If anyone still has this game saved on their DVr check out 10:20 of the third period. Bickell tries to avoid a Detroit player and possible penalty and you can hear him yell before crashing to the ice. Funny stuff in slow mo.

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01-29-2013, 06:32 AM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Marotte Marauder View Post
I saw him clearly lose the draw to Z which resulted in us running around in the D zone, the Kruger weakly attempting to clear the zone from above the circle-fail, ending with him holding Z's stick to start the 2nd period parade to the box.

His one point came on an uncontested pass to Frolik.

He is faster than last year and does get in passing lanes, I'll give him that.

Give me specifics of his improvement.

If he could learn to win draws, he could be a very effective PKer for a long time in this league, that's his upside max.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba88 View Post
I could say in other words... media guys agree with me that Krüger had a great game for his role.
You are right, 3 Stars mean nothing but it's a reward for players like Krüger. He made it without scoring. That should tell you enough that he had a good game and it's stupid to call him out now. Guy plays a great season and is one half of the best PK unit in this young season. I leave it at that. MM is just a hater. Funny that he comes up with this stuff after Krügers best game in the NHL so far.


and about that hustle stuff MM, haven't you seen the games and the 3-5 times he hustled back to break up the good scoring chances for the opponents? I'm sure you've seen it but just won't admit it
Sorry, no hate just my observations.

I'll also add that Bolland's numbers and play thus far doesn't really exceed that of (oh the horrors) of Bickell or Stalberg even though Bolly's finally playing with good linemates.

Remember, if VS can put up #s in the Top 5, anyone can.

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01-29-2013, 06:49 AM
  #135
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You don't see a difference between Bickell, Stalberg and Bolland? Bickell is the worst forward so far of the 11 that dressed for every game. Maybe Shaw was worse.

That's why you watch the games and not the stats.


You are just a hater and can't admit when being wrong.
In case you missed it, nobody is against Stalberg anymore other than biased TOR hater Ike who wasn't seen since the lockout.
Krüger is really fast enough and he was faster than others were. I still see his takeaway while the other team was on a breakaway. Krüger has been great so far in the Bottom6 where he belongs.

You think he should be in the AHL learning the NA game, don't you? Would want to know the same from Bobby... Should he be send down to the AHL or is he a NHL player?

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01-29-2013, 07:05 AM
  #136
Marotte Marauder
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Originally Posted by Bubba88 View Post
You don't see a difference between Bickell, Stalberg and Bolland? Bickell is the worst forward so far of the 11 that dressed for every game. Maybe Shaw was worse.

That's why you watch the games and not the stats. I've seen every minute of the 1st 6 games, that's on top of watching them for 45 years at this point.


You are just a hater and can't admit when being wrong.
In case you missed it, nobody is against Stalberg anymore other than biased TOR hater Ike who wasn't seen since the lockout.
Krüger is really fast enough and he was faster than others were. I still see his takeaway while the other team was on a breakaway. Krüger has been great so far in the Bottom6 where he belongs.



You think he should be in the AHL learning the NA game, don't you? Would want to know the same from Bobby... Should he be send down to the AHL or is he a NHL player?
He is a 4th line NHLer. He knows the game, just doesn't have the tools to be more than what he is. Here was my analysis that nobody seems to take issue with: I am certainly a believer, that Kruger is a smaller, weaker, slower, less offensive player and cheaper version of Frolik.


btw... statistics do help differentiate activity (what one might observe) and accomplishment (what one might measure).

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01-29-2013, 08:02 AM
  #137
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maybe Shaw? Shaw has been hands down the worst hawks forward this year. and considering his linemates, im kind of disappointed in Bolland's play as well.

bickell hasn't played poorly at all, and it would make a lot of sense for him to be on pp over Shaw.

though ideally I'd like to give saad some chances on it to see if they can get him an easy one that might open the floodgates.

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01-29-2013, 08:43 AM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Bubba88 View Post
You don't see a difference between Bickell, Stalberg and Bolland? Bickell is the worst forward so far of the 11 that dressed for every game. Maybe Shaw was worse.

That's why you watch the games and not the stats.


You are just a hater and can't admit when being wrong.
In case you missed it, nobody is against Stalberg anymore other than biased TOR hater Ike who wasn't seen since the lockout.
Krüger is really fast enough and he was faster than others were. I still see his takeaway while the other team was on a breakaway. Krüger has been great so far in the Bottom6 where he belongs.

You think he should be in the AHL learning the NA game, don't you? Would want to know the same from Bobby... Should he be send down to the AHL or is he a NHL player?
In the role Kruger has now, I’m okay with it. He is not getting the ice time or the PP time he was last season and is playing on the 4th line adequately. Is he the perfect 4th liner, far from it but he can check and as I said earlier he and Frolik are doing a decent PK job so far. We still need to shore up those lost face-offs though and his lack of physicality is not ideal either.

As for the question from Bubba: If Kruger has visions of one day playing a top 6 role in the NHL, then yes, I think a stint in the AHL playing that role would be of benefit to his career. That 4th line role in Chicago might not last, with players like Denault, McNeil and Flick in the system.

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Old
01-29-2013, 05:32 PM
  #139
Bubba88
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why would it be better for Krüger to play in the AHL to get that player? I will read your answer carefully

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01-29-2013, 05:41 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Bubba88 View Post
why would it be better for Krüger to play in the AHL to get that player? I will read your answer carefully
That makes two of us wanting to see that answer. The players you listed are not even close to NHL ready. More like wishful thinking. Kruger has done well in the role he is in. And our PK is second in the league currently and his D is much better than last year.

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01-29-2013, 05:47 PM
  #141
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That 4th line role in Chicago might not last, with players like Denault, McNeil and Flick in the system.
I've never once seen or heard of Flick doing anything to suggest he might ever overtake Kruger on a depth chart.

And if Kruger is a 4th line PK specialist for the duration of his career with the Blackhawks, I have no problems with that, considering our PK is 2nd in the league and he's leading our forwards in SHTOI/G.

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01-29-2013, 08:05 PM
  #142
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Bolland better watch out, I heard Richard Greenop might be available.

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01-29-2013, 08:11 PM
  #143
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why would it be better for Krüger to play in the AHL to get that player? I will read your answer carefully
I thought my answer was pretty clear. We'll see in 2 or 3 years time what the 4th line on Hawks will look like. I don't think Kruger will be on it.

I view him as a tweener, not enough offense to play top 6 and too soft and weak to play bottom 6, especially when up against those prospects.

He goes to RFD and plays top 6 for a few seasons to get his offensive game up to speed, may be his only hope to stick in this league. He may be able to develop that game in Chicago but it won't be easy if he's doing 4th line duties.











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01-29-2013, 08:20 PM
  #144
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Kruger has just as much chance of turning into Sami Pahlsson as he does Saku Koivu light. He's done learning in the AHL.

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01-29-2013, 08:47 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by BobbyJet View Post
I thought my answer was pretty clear. We'll see in 2 or 3 years time what the 4th line on Hawks will look like. I don't think Kruger will be on it.

I view him as a tweener, not enough offense to play top 6 and too soft and weak to play bottom 6, especially when up against those prospects
.

He goes to RFD and plays top 6 for a few seasons to get his offensive game up to speed, may be his only hope to stick in this league. He may be able to develop that game in Chicago but it won't be easy if he's doing 4th line duties.
I think the bolded statement is quite true. Kruger benefitted from his time in Rockford, and probably would have benefitted more from being there last year. He's still weak on his skates and has limited offensive potential. He has improved defensively, but isn't yet strong enough to be considered a long term answer on the third or fourth lines.

When the current forward prospects mature and are looking to take a spot on the roster, Kruger, Stalberg, Bickell, Shaw, Mayers, Frolik, Carcillo etc... will all be on the bubble or already gone, replaced with other vets or our own prospects.

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01-29-2013, 10:05 PM
  #146
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Kruger is only turning 23 years old, and is in his sophomore season. He is only going to get better, and even if he doesn't become an offensive threat, he still holds value as a smart Cman. He has the speed, and heart to get there.

He isn't all that great right now, but he is going to mature a lot still, and his all around game can only get better. To write him off right now would be foolish, hd can always play wing if better C's come around. Id rather have him up than Bollig, Shaw, Mayers and Frolik for the foreseeable future.

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01-30-2013, 01:36 AM
  #147
Bubba88
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Originally Posted by BobbyJet View Post
I thought my answer was pretty clear. We'll see in 2 or 3 years time what the 4th line on Hawks will look like. I don't think Kruger will be on it.

I view him as a tweener, not enough offense to play top 6 and too soft and weak to play bottom 6, especially when up against those prospects.

He goes to RFD and plays top 6 for a few seasons to get his offensive game up to speed, may be his only hope to stick in this league. He may be able to develop that game in Chicago but it won't be easy if he's doing 4th line duties.
no, you haven't said WHY it would be better for him playing in the AHL that has AHL talent now more than ever over the NHL against NHL talent.

You are right that Krüger won't be on the 4th line in 2-3 years. He will be in the Top9 or a team will pay in a trade for him, a trade that benefits the Hawks more than the other team.


Krüger could have played in the SEL too, they wanted to get chemistry going between him, Shaw & Jayes early. He is better than last year because of the experience he gained last year in the NHL & POs + an offseason to get better. NEVER EXPECTED SOMETHING ELSE if he played the lockout in Sweden, Germany or Rockford

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01-30-2013, 10:16 AM
  #148
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/\ Don’t you think you should include his RFD experience this year as valuable and a big contributor to where his game is now?

In RFD he played top 6 minutes as well as on the PP, which as I said, is exactly what he needs to develop. The AHL is obviously not the NHL but it is a great learning ground for players and allows them to play way more quality minutes at a slightly slower speed. Many a player has been rushed into the NHL and has flopped. There are obvious exceptions but they are few and far between – very few can make the jump without some seasoning in the AHL. You seem to imply that a player who plays more than a handful of games at the AHL level is doomed to a minor league career. That simply isn’t so. I think your entire viewpoint is based on you underrating the AHL league.

And let’s not forget that many NHL players are still playing themselves into shape, as well, team’s systems are messed up and not at 100 percent. Some players (like Kruger) have a head start on those players that were not playing; the conditioning/timing gap will close quickly. This fact may deceive, and lull fans into believing individual players or teams are better (or worse) than actuality, and what they will be in a few weeks time or less. As the intensity increases time will tell just how much Kruger has progressed. There’s no question that it does appear that his game has improved, and I think Q is finally playing him in the proper role, with Hawks, at this stage in his career. However, he’s already getting pushed around as MM has pointed out and certainly his ability at the dot needs to get better.

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01-30-2013, 02:03 PM
  #149
Bubba88
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no, all RFD did to him this year was to get ready and in game shape. Main reason for him staying was to get chemistry with the guys he will play a lot with in the next years.

Why give Krüger credit when you can blame the other team for being out of shape

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01-30-2013, 03:18 PM
  #150
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/\ If you say so. I gave credit for Krugers good PK overall (minus the face offs), but you insist on reading more into it than was intended…. all negative.

Oh well, I didn’t expect a rational response, and btw, if for 1 second you think all teams and players are up to speed, you’re mistaken.

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