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Robin Lehner

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01-30-2013, 10:43 AM
  #1
wilfred
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Robin Lehner

I don't think that Ottawa will trade Lehner, I was more interested in how fans view top Goalie prospects compared to top forward or d-man prospects.

IMO Lehner is one of the top goalies not playing in the NHL right now, if Ottawa decided to trade him how would he compare in value to the top forward or d-man prospects in the league.

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01-30-2013, 10:48 AM
  #2
CaptainGiggles
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He's invaluable to Ottawa, but ignoring that I guess something like 2 firsts and a top prospect if close to fair value?

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01-30-2013, 10:53 AM
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Tap on the Ankle
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Probably similar to Varlamov, who went for a 1st and 2nd from a team who isn't extremely likely to be a lottery squad. It's hard to say though because Varlamov had about 50 NHL games at the time he was traded, while Lehner has only 10 or so, but has had a very impressive AHL career and is about a year and a half younger than Varlamov was when he was traded to the Avs.

Great goalie prospects are not usually worth as much as one would think, I'm guessing because they are more likely to end up as a bust, while a great forward or d prospect can still be useful on the 3rd/4th line or bottom pairing if they don't pan out as a top line player.

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01-30-2013, 10:55 AM
  #4
JackBauer
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he's worth a similar prospect. something like a Klefblom, Murphy, Etem, or Kreider. Maybe even a tier higher like a Kuznetsov or Schwartz, if a team was desparate for a goalie (i'm commenting on the individual value of those prospets, regardless of the teams they are on)

but he's more important to Ottawa than those guys would be. at the same time, we have to realize that he'd be less important to a NYR, CAR or STL. Might be able to swing something with a EDM or WAS if we so desired but we don't.

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01-30-2013, 10:57 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tap on the Ankle View Post
Probably similar to Varlamov, who went for a 1st and 2nd from a team who isn't extremely likely to be a lottery squad. It's hard to say though because Varlamov had about 50 NHL games at the time he was traded, while Lehner has only 10 or so, but has had a very impressive AHL career and is about a year and a half younger than Varlamov was when he was traded to the Avs.

Great goalie prospects are not usually worth as much as one would think, I'm guessing because they are more likely to end up as a bust, while a great forward or d prospect can still be useful on the 3rd/4th line or bottom pairing if they don't pan out as a top line player.
Varlomov played in the NHL and played well. Your boy has 0track record. PLus most agree Colorado overpaid and got fleeced.

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01-30-2013, 10:59 AM
  #6
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Here we go again...

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01-30-2013, 11:20 AM
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DonthaveaCOWEN
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Being unproven in the NHL especially as a goalie plays a big factor. He undoubtedly is a top 3 prospect at his position if not the very best in Goalies not in the NHL. So I think the best trade would be for a recently drafted high-end prospect with a similar upside (and similar risk) at a different position.

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01-30-2013, 11:21 AM
  #8
EpicNeilTime
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Varlomov played in the NHL and played well. Your boy has 0track record. PLus most agree Colorado overpaid and got fleeced.
Well he has played 13 games with a 2.61 GAA and .910 sv percentage. That's pretty good for being 20 years old at the time. He has an AHL calder cup under his belt as well as the MVP of the playoffs. Looks like he will be a top 15 goalie in the league and could step in right away.

Most Sens fans overrate him, but he really does mean that much to the Sens.

I personally would try and package him for a top pairing D or a top line winger.

Standalone though, maybe a first and a prospect/roster player. Depends on the team.

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01-30-2013, 11:29 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Varlomov played in the NHL and played well. Your boy has 0track record. PLus most agree Colorado overpaid and got fleeced.
5 games with a .935 svp last season is more then "0 track record" however he hasn't proven enough at the NHL level to get a deal like Varlamov did.


And just so people can see what he is doing this year. Lehner is 16-5-1 in 23 appearances for Binghamton this season, ranking third in the AHL with a 1.80 goals-against average and first with a .948 save percentage.

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01-30-2013, 11:54 AM
  #10
KlattNazty
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Short answer: More to the Senators franchise than to any other franchise.

In an actual trade: Not enough to please sens fans because of the volatile nature of goalies.

Best used in a package.

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01-30-2013, 11:58 AM
  #11
Benny FTW
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More than any team is willing to offer.

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01-30-2013, 12:57 PM
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Brian Boucher as a stud young goalie was traded for Michal Handzus, a quality #2 center.

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01-30-2013, 01:01 PM
  #13
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In this case it's high value from Ottawa but with Luongo possibly on the market and past rumors of Bernier being available, not as high as we think it should be.

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01-30-2013, 01:10 PM
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Is the question about value to the Sens or objective value?

Value to the Sens is significantly higher than objective value and this seems to be a constant source of disagreement on these "Value of:" threads.

Senators fans value would have to be exceeded for the fans to see a trade as good but in order for that to happen the trade would likely have to massively exceed the objective value.

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01-30-2013, 01:26 PM
  #15
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I think he can get a solid top 6 NHLer on a reasonable contract. Good asset to have for a cup run if Ottawa ends up being poised to do so this year.

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01-30-2013, 01:29 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ErikKarlsson View Post
5 games with a .935 svp last season is more then "0 track record" however he hasn't proven enough at the NHL level to get a deal like Varlamov did.


And just so people can see what he is doing this year. Lehner is 16-5-1 in 23 appearances for Binghamton this season, ranking third in the AHL with a 1.80 goals-against average and first with a .948 save percentage.
5 games is not a track record for a goalie. Ask Raycroft, Mason, Jim Carey, Reimer, and numerous other goalies that looked like world beaters after one year.

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01-30-2013, 01:45 PM
  #17
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Robin Lehner's value is about the same as someone like Gibson. What would the Sens fans trade for Gibson? They just are not proven enough to warrant a big return. He needs at least a couple NHL season as a backup playing 30 plus games to increase his value.

His value is currently less then Varlomov's when he was traded. At most a first of comparable prospect at a different position. Or he could be used in a package for a top 6 forward or top 4 NHL defenseman depending on team needs.

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01-30-2013, 01:48 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
5 games is not a track record for a goalie. Ask Raycroft, Mason, Jim Carey, Reimer, and numerous other goalies that looked like world beaters after one year.
TL;DR: Goalies aren't allowed to be good because birddog said so.

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01-30-2013, 01:50 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
5 games is not a track record for a goalie. Ask Raycroft, Mason, Jim Carey, Reimer, and numerous other goalies that looked like world beaters after one year.
Lunqvist, Rinne, Quick, Price. Sometimes goalies do end up being that good. What's your point?

The career of any single person you can name has no influence at all on Robin Lehner's future career.

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01-30-2013, 01:51 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HooliganX2 View Post
Robin Lehner's value is about the same as someone like Gibson. What would the Sens fans trade for Gibson? They just are not proven enough to warrant a big return. He needs at least a couple NHL season as a backup playing 30 plus games to increase his value.

His value is currently less then Varlomov's when he was traded. At most a first of comparable prospect at a different position. Or he could be used in a package for a top 6 forward or top 4 NHL defenseman depending on team needs.
A goalie playing juniors doesn't hold the same value as a goalie who's proven himself in the minors. A great WJC doesn't chance that. Remember Jack Campbell hype right after the WJC? Junior success =/= men's success is never more true than when it comes to goaltenders.

Similarly, and you're bang on with that, Varlamov had NHL success before getting traded, whereas Lehner has had AHL success. Varlamov > Lehner >> Gibson when it comes to value.

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01-30-2013, 01:55 PM
  #21
HooliganX2
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Originally Posted by Clamshells View Post
Lunqvist, Rinne, Quick, Price. Sometimes goalies do end up being that good. What's your point?

The career of any single person you can name has no influence at all on Robin Lehner's future career.
I think you are missing his point. He never said Lehner wont be good. It's just a lot harder to predict how a goalie will do as an NHL starter. Goalie is the hardest position to pick in hockey. A good young goalie in Jr's or the AHL does not always equal an NHL starter. Even a great rookie NHL goalie doesn't always repeat their performance to be a good NHL starter or even an NHL backup.

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01-30-2013, 02:46 PM
  #22
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Why even bother asking? He's the least likely of any sens players to be traded because he means so much to the future of the franchise and the Sens have been very high on him for 4 years. They've been very patient with his development, they won't throw that away right when it's looking like that patience is going to pay off.

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01-30-2013, 03:14 PM
  #23
Clamshells
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HooliganX2 View Post
I think you are missing his point. He never said Lehner wont be good. It's just a lot harder to predict how a goalie will do as an NHL starter. Goalie is the hardest position to pick in hockey. A good young goalie in Jr's or the AHL does not always equal an NHL starter. Even a great rookie NHL goalie doesn't always repeat their performance to be a good NHL starter or even an NHL backup.
What team evaluates their own prospects based on worst case scenario? Lehner has that high end potential, and appears to have the means to reach it, so thats how he's rated by Sens fans.

We don't care about the Raycrofts and Masons who didn't live up to their rookie years. I'd be much more okay with Lehner turning into one of those with Ottawa than turning into a Lundqvist with another team, so that's where his insanely high value comes in.

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01-30-2013, 03:25 PM
  #24
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Less than the value of Varlamov when he was traded. Which means he shouldn't be dealt except in a package for a young top-6 forward or top-pair D.

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01-30-2013, 03:33 PM
  #25
HooliganX2
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Originally Posted by Clamshells View Post
What team evaluates their own prospects based on worst case scenario? Lehner has that high end potential, and appears to have the means to reach it, so thats how he's rated by Sens fans.

We don't care about the Raycrofts and Masons who didn't live up to their rookie years. I'd be much more okay with Lehner turning into one of those with Ottawa than turning into a Lundqvist with another team, so that's where his insanely high value comes in.
We are talking about trade value not value to the Sens. As the Sens should not trade him at all. A team is not going to offer as much as it would take for the Sens to move him. He's to risky for another teams GM to pay what Sen's fans would want for him.

You have to look at it from another teams point of view. If I was a sens fan I personally would not even consider trading him.

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