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The Coming Budget Crisis

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Old
02-02-2013, 01:42 PM
  #1
pegcity
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The Coming Budget Crisis

Hyperbole, I know. But never the less it seems we will have to cut some salary next year by not signing someone of importance.

The current payroll for the 2013-14 season sits at 34.7 million. We have 4 significant RFA that need to be re-signed (Wheeler, Little, Bogo and Burmistrov). My guess is between those 4 players we will be looking at 15 million in salary. Some might say this is high but our estimates for this past off season's RFAs were way too low. On top of that we have two other RFA which will needed to be signed (Redmond and Postma).

We have a few UFA as well that we will need to re-sign or find someone who will replace them. Antropov and Hainsey. On top of that we will have Ponikarovsky, Wellwood, Miettinen, Clitsome and Montoya.


Our roster if we sign all our notable RFA

Kane - Oli - Wheeler
Ladd - Blank - Little
Blank - Burmi - Scheifele
Wright - Slater - Thorburn

Buff - Enstrom
Bogo - Stuart
Postma - Redmond

Pavelec
Blank

So we basically have 8-11 million to sign 2 or 3 notable forwards, a serviceable defenseman and a back up goalie. It seems unlikely that we will be able to sign both Antropov and Hainsey as well.


Thoughts? Did I go wrong anywhere?

http://www.capgeek.com/jets/

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02-02-2013, 01:48 PM
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garret9
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Remember that it's only addition in the raise that's added... example: Little going to ~3.5 is only a raise in ~0.7... (not saying he will get that just showing math haha)
It's really not that big of a deal.

PS I really hope Stuart isn't on our second with Bogosian. I pray very very dearly...


ALSO REMEMBER TO CELEBRATE GAGNON COMING OFF THE BOOKS!!!


Last edited by garret9: 02-02-2013 at 01:58 PM.
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02-02-2013, 01:53 PM
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One way I look at things: Imagine Hainsey (or his replacement) and Bogosian swapped cap hits and Antropov and Wheeler swapped caphits. Seems pretty fair for all parties right? In fact Antropov might even garner less than that, but Wheeler could garner more, so maybe that evens out. I'd also hope we could get Bogo to sign a contract similar to John Carlson's, but 4.5 is manageable for a caphit.

That leaves us with about 3 million (possibly closer to 5 seeing as Miettinen and Wellwood won't be needed and their replacements should cost less.) to give Burmistrov and Little a raise. It's a little tight, but it's doable.

I also think Pasquale comes up as backup next year and I'm hoping we can resign Ponikarovsky and Antropov.

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02-02-2013, 01:59 PM
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pegcity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Remember that it's only addition in the raise that's added... example: Little going to ~3.5 is only a raise in ~0.7... (not saying he will get that just showing math haha)
It's really not that big of a deal.


PS I really hope Stuart isn't on our second with Bogosian. I pray very very dearly...
Come again

I added the salaries up and came up with 34 million.

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02-02-2013, 02:01 PM
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pegcity
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
One way I look at things: Imagine Hainsey (or his replacement) and Bogosian swapped cap hits and Antropov and Wheeler swapped caphits. Seems pretty fair for all parties right? In fact Antropov might even garner less than that, but Wheeler could garner more, so maybe that evens out. I'd also hope we could get Bogo to sign a contract similar to John Carlson's, but 4.5 is manageable for a caphit.

That leaves us with about 3 million (possibly closer to 5 seeing as Miettinen and Wellwood won't be needed and their replacements should cost less.) to give Burmistrov and Little a raise. It's a little tight, but it's doable.

I also think Pasquale comes up as backup next year and I'm hoping we can resign Ponikarovsky and Antropov.
The thing is for Hainsey and Antropov, we will need to pay their market rate to get them back which will be IMO higher then the numbers you have shown. I think someone will be willing to give Antro 3.5-4 million a season and Hainsey 4.5-5 million. Both are decent players who can play on the PK and PP. We will need to out bid for their services.

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02-02-2013, 03:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pegcity View Post
The thing is for Hainsey and Antropov, we will need to pay their market rate to get them back which will be IMO higher then the numbers you have shown. I think someone will be willing to give Antro 3.5-4 million a season and Hainsey 4.5-5 million. Both are decent players who can play on the PK and PP. We will need to out bid for their services.
Non-issue. They won't be back.

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02-02-2013, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pegcity View Post
The thing is for Hainsey and Antropov, we will need to pay their market rate to get them back which will be IMO higher then the numbers you have shown. I think someone will be willing to give Antro 3.5-4 million a season and Hainsey 4.5-5 million. Both are decent players who can play on the PK and PP. We will need to out bid for their services.
There is no way in hell that either one of those players fetches that much in FA.

Not a chance.

You don't pay 4mil for a third liner and you don't pay that much for a #4 Defenseman that is probably closer to being a #5 DMan in an ideal situation.

I wouldn't mind the Hains at 2-2.5 and Antro at the same. I'd be ok with that. If they want to play here, they'll sign for that much.

Both are in the twilight of their careers, so it's unlikely that either will fetch top dollar.

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02-02-2013, 04:06 PM
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I want no part of Hainsey...good ridance to that overpaid bum.

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02-02-2013, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
There is no way in hell that either one of those players fetches that much in FA.

Not a chance.

You don't pay 4mil for a third liner and you don't pay that much for a #4 Defenseman that is probably closer to being a #5 DMan in an ideal situation.

I wouldn't mind the Hains at 2-2.5 and Antro at the same. I'd be ok with that. If they want to play here, they'll sign for that much.

Both are in the twilight of their careers, so it's unlikely that either will fetch top dollar.
This x 1000. If we're signing Antro for 4 million and Hainsey for 5 million, we might as well ship this team to Phoenix.

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02-02-2013, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by surge1979 View Post
This x 1000. If we're signing Antro for 4 million and Hainsey for 5 million, we might as well ship this team to Phoenix.
Thats $9 million dollars. Use $7-8 million of that to sign a superstar, and the other $1-2 million for a lower level young up and commer from the Ice Caps. Thats how I'd manage the budget instead of resigning 2 overpaid scrubs.

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02-02-2013, 04:28 PM
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I'd have a hard time bringing any of our UFA's back. Clearly there is something missing from this team. If you just keep rolling this roster out I don't know how there can be any expectation of getting better, short of falling into the Oiler rebuild.

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02-02-2013, 04:48 PM
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You have to re-sign Bogosian, and Wheeler as well. I know Burmi has tonnes of upside, but the team doesn't seem to know how or where to play him, or what his game is. I think you could probably sign him pretty easily anyhow.
I have no real problem with Little, but he might want a bigger raise than he's worth. Other teams would probably be interested in him looking at past point totals.
I want to believe Bogo is the team's franchise d-man.

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02-02-2013, 04:52 PM
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Just looked at the free agent defensemen from cap geek. Holy ****, I've never seen a worse crop - we might have to pay hainsey $13M x 8:

Timonen (37)
Visnovsky (36)
Gonchar (38)
Hainsey (31)
Streit (35)
Regehr (32)
Whitney (29)
Zidlicky (35)
Hamrlik (38)
Scuderi (34)
Poti (32)
White (28)
Smid (27)
Ference (33)

It looks like we're going to have to address our defense issues through a trade. If not, we'll have a good shot at drafting Seth Jones 1st overall.

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02-02-2013, 04:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pegcity View Post
The thing is for Hainsey and Antropov, we will need to pay their market rate to get them back which will be IMO higher then the numbers you have shown. I think someone will be willing to give Antro 3.5-4 million a season and Hainsey 4.5-5 million. Both are decent players who can play on the PK and PP. We will need to out bid for their services.
Neither of them is getting that much money. Hainsey isn't going to get a raise . He received that kind of money when he was believed to be a 30-40 point defenseman. Turns out he's not that and no one is going to give him that money.

What you're not taking into account is that this cap ceiling drop affects everyone. There won't be a free agent bidding war frenzy. Especially not for the likes of Antropov or Hainsey. I like them both, but they're both depth players who are north of 30, they just won't command that much in a shrunken market. What teams out there do you envision have the ability (capspace) to drop money like that on Hainsey or Antropov?

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02-02-2013, 05:02 PM
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OthmarAmmann
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I thought this was going to be about the provincial budget.

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02-02-2013, 05:03 PM
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pegcity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
Neither of them is getting that much money. Hainsey isn't going to get a raise . He received that kind of money when he was believed to be a 30-40 point defenseman. Turns out he's not that and no one is going to give him that money.

What you're not taking into account is that this cap ceiling drop affects everyone. There won't be a free agent bidding war frenzy. Especially not for the likes of Antropov or Hainsey. I like them both, but they're both depth players who are north of 30, they just won't command that much in a shrunken market. What teams out there do you envision have the ability (capspace) to drop money like that on Hainsey or Antropov?
good point

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02-02-2013, 06:41 PM
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As pegcity stated, the Jets have 34 million locked up in current players. Here's a potential lineup for next season and player salaries:

Forwards

Kane - $5.25 million Jokinen - $4.5 million Wheeler - est. $4.5 million
Ladd - $4.4 million Scheifele - $1.5 million Little - est. $3.75 million
free agent - $2 million Antropov - $2.25 million Burmistrov - est. $2.5 million
Machacek - $575,000 Slater $1.6 million Wright - $650,000

Thorburn - $866,000
Cormier - $850,000

Defense

Byfulgien - $5.2 million Enstrom - $5.75 million
Bogosian - $4.75 million free agent(possibly Hainsey) - $2.75 million
Stuart - $1.7 million Postma - $750,000

Redmond or Kulda - $750,000

Goalies

Pavelec - $3.9 million
Pasquale $750,000 or free agent goalie $1 million

This should put the Jets at approx. $59 million leaving $5 million to spare. I'm assuming Sheifele makes the team next year as well as Machacek improving his game to the satisfaction of Jets management to earn a shot.

We will have to leave room for the inevitable injuries this team will suffer so I hope we get to see callups of the likes of Klinberg and Telegin. Maybe Kulda as well assuming they can resign him.

Based on other contracts out there, I think Little at $3.75 (maybe $4 million max) over a 3 - 4 yr. deal is about right. Wheeler probably signs for a minimum of $4.5 million so I might have been a little optimistic in my projections. If he has a great season, say 45 points, he could command $5.5 million. Either way I hope the JEts sign him to a 5 yr. contract. Antro and Poni, as third line players will not command much more than $2 million per season each. With the salary cap crunch coming this offseason for many teams there simply isn't enough space to accomodate $3 million salaries on the third line. Burmi, in my eyes, is going to be a 2nd/3rd line tweener. I can see a 2 yr. bridge contract for approx. 2.5 million (maybe $2.75 million) per season. However, is he continues to struggle offensively as he has done so far this season, a contract in the range of $2 - $2.2 million might be in the offing. Rumours of Europe calling might boost his contract value though.

On defense, I used the Brayden Coburn contract as a comparable for Bogosian. Solid #3 defenseman who just received a contract that pays $4.4 million per season. I think Bogo has more offensive upside and will command slightly more. Assuming he comes back from injury and plays like he did last year I think $4.75 million per season is a fair number. Please let it be for 5 or 6 years though! If we can't resign Hainsey for the $2.75 million I allocated there, I hope we can get someone like a Robin Regehr. Would be a solid #4 D-man who could free Bogo up to take more chances offensively. Anyone see how he has played lately?

I think some posters are underestimating how much it will take to sign a #4 defenseman whether that be Hainsey or someone else. Yes, there is a budget crunch coming for many teams, but when it comes to top-6 forwards and top-4 defensemen, teams are always willing to pay a little bit extra. And with the lack of quality defensemen available this upcoming offseason, Hainsey will command more than $2 million per year.

I assumed on our bottom pair, we would just use Postma since he has played sedquately so far even though he scares me in our end from time to time.

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02-02-2013, 07:16 PM
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I want no part of Hainsey...good ridance to that overpaid bum.
Diddo

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02-02-2013, 09:49 PM
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yup.

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02-02-2013, 10:08 PM
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Yep.

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02-02-2013, 10:22 PM
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I don't think it's necessary to go through the numbers to see that there has to be a mistake. Last year we were right near the cap floor. Since then the only added salary was Jokinen and Poni, as well as Kane and Pavelec's raises. Considering we're losing (or at least lowering) Antropov and Hainsey's salaries this offseason there's no way we're near the cap even if we have to re-sign a bunch of RFAs.

Basically my reasoning is that if the current Jets squad, near the floor last year and with only decent talent to re-sign next year (no Crosby/Stamkos types), gets close to the cap after the bad contracts come off the books, every other team in the league is in trouble.

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02-02-2013, 10:24 PM
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Teams are going to be shedding cap space next year I think being a free agent next year will not be a great thing as the well will be pretty dry

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02-02-2013, 10:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by surge1979 View Post
Just looked at the free agent defensemen from cap geek. Holy ****, I've never seen a worse crop - we might have to pay hainsey $13M x 8:

Timonen (37)
Visnovsky (36)
Gonchar (38)
Hainsey (31)
Streit (35)
Regehr (32)
Whitney (29)
Zidlicky (35)
Hamrlik (38)
Scuderi (34)
Poti (32)
White (28)
Smid (27)
Ference (33)

It looks like we're going to have to address our defense issues through a trade. If not, we'll have a good shot at drafting Seth Jones 1st overall.
If we can sign Hainsey for a year at a discount I wouldn't be opposed to it. The UFA D pool looks better in 2014, and hopefully we'll have Trouba coming up the pipeline.

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02-02-2013, 10:51 PM
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Did a quick roster on capgeek guessed the RFA resigns but I think they are pretty close. I expect one of the RFA's to be traded and the most likely in my mind is Little so I left him off the calculation.

FORWARDS
Evander Kane ($5.250m) / Olli Jokinen ($4.500m) / Blake Wheeler ($4.500m)
Andrew Ladd ($4.400m) / Mark Scheifele ($1.594m) / Chris Thorburn ($0.867m)
James Wright ($0.650m) / Jim Slater ($1.600m) /
Alexander Burmistrov ($2.500m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Tobias Enstrom ($5.750m) / Dustin Byfuglien ($5.200m)
Mark Stuart ($1.700m) / Zach Bogosian ($4.000m)
GOALTENDERS
Ondrej Pavelec ($3.900m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $45,735,833; BONUSES: $675,000
CAP SPACE (14-man roster): $19,239,167
------

Assuming they want to keep the payroll in the 55 to 60 million dollar range they have between 10 and 15 million to spend on 3 F, 2D, and a backup goalie, plus whatever they spend on the 13th forward and 7th D.

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02-02-2013, 11:11 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised to see Little packages off for a bigger version of Little.

I'd like to see Chevy go for either Scuderi or Smid. I'm good with either. If we get Scuderi it must mean we're winning the cup right?

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