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Jets - Free Agents, Trades, Rumors, Speculation - 2012-13 (Part XI)

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02-02-2013, 02:52 PM
  #51
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You guys need more patience with Burmi. He's young still. Most of the top from that draft class are making their debuts this year. He was rushed, but he still has potential, just needs to find some more offense. We've seen him do it in flashs. His floor is an aver age #3 center, but his ceiling is a lot higher.

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02-02-2013, 03:46 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
I know you are a "stat" guy , which is fine , I value that but not nearly as much as what I actually ( and everyone else ) sees , and how he does ( and doesn't produce ).

One point on a nice puck rag , on a shot that absolutely should have been stopped. Not exactly progression imo add this to his AHL performance and I am curious to know if when you view him , you would stand up and stump for him in a room of scouts and your management bosses? Would you believe in him enough to stick your neck out?

He has talent , physical skills ,and he is a good /very good defensive player when motivated , but what I see is a player not playing with hunger , or fierceness to create offense. He tries to play on the perimter , play smooth , and while he looks pretty ( and a lot of people are enamoured by this ) that hasn't and isn't providing production.

Would love to have him start to deliver, I look at the one period Scheifele had last night and the glaring differences are obvious at least to me. Europe and the minor leagues are full of skilled , smooth players that can't produce above the league level they are playing at.

Hoping for and counting on are different imo , I can not say I would count on him being more than a pretty good defensive third line player. Hope for? yeah I hope he could be a 2C and score 20+ goals and 60 plus or minus points , the Ryan Kessler comaprisons are not warranted , at least at this time , imo.

Prove it Burmi , it is time to prove it.
It's not surprising. Burmi and his line get the tough Defensive zone starts the majority of the time. They face the tough competition and he gets very little PP time.

Kesler on the other hand, does just over half of his starts in the Dzone and plays on the first pp unit with the Sedins, he replaces the other Defenseman on the point. At least he was the year he got 41goals.

Last season he played injured and had his PP time cut.

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02-02-2013, 04:15 PM
  #53
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I really see Burmi becoming a 09 and on Bergeron type player in all likelihood not the offensive wizard his talent suggests he should become.

I don't know what it is about him, but all that skill just doesn't seem to translate into points for him. Though he has created some nice scoring chances that other guys have failed to capitalize on and he is still really young.

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02-02-2013, 04:15 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
I know you are a "stat" guy , which is fine , I value that but not nearly as much as what I actually ( and everyone else ) sees , and how he does ( and doesn't produce ).

One point on a nice puck rag , on a shot that absolutely should have been stopped. Not exactly progression imo add this to his AHL performance and I am curious to know if when you view him , you would stand up and stump for him in a room of scouts and your management bosses? Would you believe in him enough to stick your neck out?

He has talent , physical skills ,and he is a good /very good defensive player when motivated , but what I see is a player not playing with hunger , or fierceness to create offense. He tries to play on the perimter , play smooth , and while he looks pretty ( and a lot of people are enamoured by this ) that hasn't and isn't providing production.

Would love to have him start to deliver, I look at the one period Scheifele had last night and the glaring differences are obvious at least to me. Europe and the minor leagues are full of skilled , smooth players that can't produce above the league level they are playing at.

Hoping for and counting on are different imo , I can not say I would count on him being more than a pretty good defensive third line player. Hope for? yeah I hope he could be a 2C and score 20+ goals and 60 plus or minus points , the Ryan Kessler comaprisons are not warranted , at least at this time , imo.

Prove it Burmi , it is time to prove it.
I think they are somewhat warranted...take Kesler's first 3 NHL seasons and Burmi's first 3 and compare them (forgive me for the lack of table formatting),

Kesler:
Season | GP | G | A | Pts | PM | +/- | Age
2003-04 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | -2 | 19
2005-06 | 82 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 79 | 1 | 21
2006-07 | 48 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 22
Total | 158 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 135 | 0

Burmistrov:
Season | GP | G | A | Pts | PM | +/- | Age
2010-11 | 74 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 27 | -12 | 19
2011-12 | 76 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 42 | 4 | 20
2012-13 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 21
Total | 158 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 73 | -9

Kesler didn't hit 20+ goals until he was 23. Given a couple more years, hopefully Burmistrov can pot 20+ while continuing his strong defensive/PK play.

...I know basic stats like this are whack. I'm sure garret9 could come up with more "proof" statistically than these.


Last edited by ahplk: 02-02-2013 at 04:27 PM.
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02-02-2013, 04:52 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
I know you are a "stat" guy , which is fine , I value that but not nearly as much as what I actually ( and everyone else ) sees , and how he does ( and doesn't produce ).

One point on a nice puck rag , on a shot that absolutely should have been stopped. Not exactly progression imo add this to his AHL performance and I am curious to know if when you view him , you would stand up and stump for him in a room of scouts and your management bosses? Would you believe in him enough to stick your neck out?

He has talent , physical skills ,and he is a good /very good defensive player when motivated , but what I see is a player not playing with hunger , or fierceness to create offense. He tries to play on the perimter , play smooth , and while he looks pretty ( and a lot of people are enamoured by this ) that hasn't and isn't providing production.

Would love to have him start to deliver, I look at the one period Scheifele had last night and the glaring differences are obvious at least to me. Europe and the minor leagues are full of skilled , smooth players that can't produce above the league level they are playing at.

Hoping for and counting on are different imo , I can not say I would count on him being more than a pretty good defensive third line player. Hope for? yeah I hope he could be a 2C and score 20+ goals and 60 plus or minus points , the Ryan Kessler comaprisons are not warranted , at least at this time , imo.

Prove it Burmi , it is time to prove it.
Pre-warning: I do not 100% believe that Burmistrov > Scheifele's offensive ceiling, but I'm showing how Burmistrov's ceiling isn't that low by comparing him to Scheifele.

I don't exclusively use stats and I don't like it when people dismiss my views just because I use them. In fact if I have actually watched the player I never let stats exclusively dictate my opinion. For the most part I would use stats for 3 things: to see how they were used, to see if they out-chance/beat their competition, and how they produce. Your statement in how you don't value "stats" as how he "does/doesn't produce" is also a bit of a conflict since they are really synonyms, but I go deeper to give context. There's a few contradictory parts in your statements. You comment on how you want to see production from Burmistrov, and place Scheifele above Burmistrov, yet Burmistrov has out-produced Scheifele so far on every level at the equivalent time. Most people who have come to us as STH of Barrie (ex: KrazyKanuck and Racer) have commented on how Burmistrov was indeed further along in offence as they left Barrie.

I like using stats because sometimes you can be tricked by the eye, but I find a hybrid works best.
Many people saw issues with Burmistrov's AHL production, but I didn't. I displayed how almost the entire team had severely repressed shooting percentages and that was including Burmistrov, also remember that a large % of the points SJIC did get, Burmistrov was a part of. I also watched every single IceCaps game, so I can tell you Burmistrov was neither exclusively a perimeter player (in AHL or NHL) nor the cause of the poor shooting percentages (especially since his NHL sh% is a lot higher than his AHL). Since you mention scouts, I will also mention that many scouts last summer still thought of Burmistrov's offensive ceiling being ahead of that of Scheifele's, believe it or not. Yes, the goal Burmistrov had was a bit iffy, but to ignore the fact that his offensive instincts have allowed to continuously create offense and chances such as that can be poor choice. He currently is putting as many pucks to the net per icetime as any non-Ladd/Little/Kane/Jokinen, and he's doing that without the powerplay time.

I don't see him exclusively playing on the perimeter and I definitely see a kid whose very visually and obvious hungry to become a better player.

In the end it comes to this... At a young age he is already very very very good defensively, can beat top6 competition by out-chancing them, has flashes of offensive brilliance, and so far has tracked offensively for his age with first and second liners.
That means one of three things:
1) he is an amazing offensively gifted player that despite not being "offensively hungry" as others he can still produce equally with them, which would also mean that given proper direction and correction he would surpass those that he is currently tracking as even with
2) he is not superior offensively as those he's tracking with and is being as "offensively hungry" as the others and so he should develop in par with those he currently tracks with
3) he is a rare (but not unheard of, but usually is due to a different skill set) case where his offensive abilities have plateaued and he will not improve even in the slightest... which doesn't seem that likely since he did improve in his sophomore year (unlike Kane who per-minute actually regressed)

I'll ask a similar question to you: if you were a scout would you stick out your neck that number three is the truth and that there isn't a greater chance of 1 or 2?

Remember that just a 15% increase in his point production would have made him on par as Little for even strength... That seems reachable since the year before that Burmistrov increased his production by 20%...


Some recent scouting reports to get outside opinions and also so it isn't "just statistical analysis":

To 50 Players Under 23; October 28, 2012:
Quote:
40. Alexander Burmistrov, Center, Winnipeg Jets

Burmistrov is a gifted player who can be a lot of fun to watch when he's on. He is very good with the puck, has high-end hockey sense, and skates well. Usually with players who have the tools, and are as young as Burmistrov, while the production has not yet come, it is a combination of their physical game/getting stronger and playing up to pace that are to blame. Those things tend to come with experience and gym work. Burmistrov has been solid at even-strength, and though he hasn't broken out yet, I see him as a pretty quality player in his prime.
Scheifele was not on the list.

Winnipeg Jets Top 10 Players Under 23; August 8, 2012:
Quote:
1. Evander Kane, Center
2. Zach Bogosian, Defense
3. Alexander Burmistrov, Center
4. Mark Scheifele, Center
5. Jacob Trouba, Defense
6. Ivan Telegin, Center
7. Paul Postma, Defense
8. Patrice Cormier, Center
9. Carl Klingberg, Right Wing
10. Zach Redmond, Defense

I'm aware that this is a rather boring ranking, in that the three NHLers appear 1-2-3, although between Burmistrov and Scheifele, it was a hard call to make. Kane and Bogosian look to be on the path to be top-tier players for many years. Bogosian may never be an offensive juggernaut but he has high-end defensive upside and can certainly be a good offensive player. I love Burmistrov's puck skills and hockey sense, which is why despite the fact the production hasn't really come, I'm still optimistic about him. He's still pretty young, does fine at even strength, and has the potential to come around in a big way.


Last edited by garret9: 02-02-2013 at 05:10 PM.
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02-02-2013, 04:56 PM
  #56
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While I respect the statistical analysis and comparisons , it also is evident when using the eyeball test that some thigs are missing at least at this point.

Players that have size challenges , and he does imo ,have to play with an edge. They have to play hungry , compete , not play the perimter. The vast majority of scouts will tell you that when they evaluate and grade small players , that if they don't have this aspect , they won't grade them highly.

As I said the one period that Scheifele played C last night showed more , to me , than Burmistrov has over a long while unfortunately. Now he has talent , he IS talented but to date he has not translated that to making a differance.

I was the one that mentioned this organization was contemplating him going to the A well before it "broke" . There is concern , and not maybe that he is not or can not be a good player, but the trend , the pattern wasn't good. Most errors in scouting are due to smaller players not being graded well or properly , but the ones that do become very productive have the traits previously mentioned ... plus ... they consistently produce.

I hope he becomes semi close to the player a lot of people say he is or will ne , I truly do ...great for the Jets ... my eyes tell me to be realistic. When is he going to show? , he didn't beyond an initial short run last year , not in the A and not to date this season.


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02-02-2013, 05:44 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
While I respect the statistical analysis and comparisons , it also is evident when using the eyeball test that some thigs are missing at least at this point.

Players that have size challenges , and he does imo ,have to play with an edge. They have to play hungry , compete , not play the perimter. The vast majority of scouts will tell you that when they evaluate and grade small players , that if they don't have this aspect , they won't grade them highly.

As I said the one period that Scheifele played C last night showed more , to me , than Burmistrov has over a long while unfortunately. Now he has talent , he IS talented but to date he has not translated that to making a differance.

I was the one that mentioned this organization was contemplating him going to the A well before it "broke" . There is concern , and not maybe that he is not or can not be a good player, but the trend , the pattern wasn't good. Most errors in scouting are due to smaller players not being graded well or properly , but the ones that do become very productive have the traits previously mentioned ... plus ... they consistently produce.

I hope he becomes semi close to the player a lot of people say he is or will ne , I truly do ...great for the Jets ... my eyes tell me to be realistic. When is he going to show? , he didn't beyond an initial short run last year , not in the A and not to date this season.
Wasn't he first star the other night against the Isles?

How many 21 year olds are out there ripping it up that weren't the top prospects in their draft year?

Burmistrov not hitting his offensive stride at 21 years of age on an underachiving team is probably the least of our concerns.

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02-02-2013, 06:14 PM
  #58
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Burmistrov will be ok in 2-4 years he will elevate his offensive games
Schiefele will be ok to
So does Trouba

You stick them with
Bogo, byfuglien, Enstrom
Ladd, little, wheeler, Kane

Plus our prospects that are doing good now
Lowry, kosmachuk

Plus that have potential, telegin, olsen

We just need a few correct pieces
Another minute cruncher shut down d to be paired with bogo

Another bottom 6 forward that is PK ELITE


Then we draft either McKinnon, jones or barkov

We will be all set in 2-3 years

The only fear that I have is goaltending now


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02-02-2013, 06:47 PM
  #59
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Well Canuck fans are a funny bunch some are ready to run Schneider out of town already thanks to Loungos's good start. He's another goalie that I wouldn't mind but they would probably want one of Little or Burmistrov for him. Not sure I do that as much as I would like to get him. Cap hit would be a problem, don't want 8 million tied up in goal tending.

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02-02-2013, 07:34 PM
  #60
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Well Canuck fans are a funny bunch some are ready to run Schneider out of town already thanks to Loungos's good start. He's another goalie that I wouldn't mind but they would probably want one of Little or Burmistrov for him. Not sure I do that as much as I would like to get him. Cap hit would be a problem, don't want 8 million tied up in goal tending.
Pavelec for Schneider?

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02-02-2013, 07:38 PM
  #61
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Pavelec for Schneider?
In bizarro world, maybe

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02-02-2013, 08:20 PM
  #62
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Pavelec for Schneider?
I would do that in a second. You'd have to get Gillis pretty drunk to go for it though

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02-02-2013, 11:05 PM
  #63
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I've been thinking about this goaltending, and maybe the answer isn't replacing Pavelec, but complimenting him. Maybe obtaining a very solid backup in a guy like Emery or Neuvrith would be an option.

I'd also go for Bishop as well, not proven but has a good level of potential.

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02-02-2013, 11:30 PM
  #64
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I've been thinking about this goaltending, and maybe the answer isn't replacing Pavelec, but complimenting him. Maybe obtaining a very solid backup in a guy like Emery or Neuvrith would be an option.

I'd also go for Bishop as well, not proven but has a good level of potential.
I'd for sure take Neuvirth. He could possibly be better than Pavs.

Not really interested in Bishop and Emery is no better than Montoya.

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02-02-2013, 11:31 PM
  #65
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What's really worrying is that we have no insurance should Pavs not work out for us. Ed Pasquale is our top goaltending prospect and he doesn't look to project into a quality NHL starter. We don't have enough depth to trade off a roster player in return for a goalie and picks are like gold bars to this organization.

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02-02-2013, 11:49 PM
  #66
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I'd for sure take Neuvirth. He could possibly be better than Pavs.

Not really interested in Bishop and Emery is no better than Montoya.
Emery is pretty decent. He's not goin to blow your mind, but he'd been to the finals, filled in for Crawford last season...and has been lights out tonight in Calgary.

Bishop has great potential.

I agree Neuvrith is our best option.

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02-02-2013, 11:50 PM
  #67
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Ray Emery is an absolutely horrible NHL goaltender...how he has a job, I have absolutely no idea. Would never want him on the IceCaps, nevermind the Jets...

He has one year above a .905! (talking full season). And .905 is a pretty bad save percentage. Even the year he made the finals he posted a mere .907 in the playoffs, that team was overloaded on offense. And that was back before his injury issues and follies in Russia, he's been much worse since then...

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02-02-2013, 11:58 PM
  #68
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I've been thinking about this goaltending, and maybe the answer isn't replacing Pavelec, but complimenting him. Maybe obtaining a very solid backup in a guy like Emery or Neuvrith would be an option.

I'd also go for Bishop as well, not proven but has a good level of potential.
Ottawa has a glut of goalies, Bishop could probably be poached for a 2nd rounder (what Ottawa paid for him last season).

I don't think Washington would trade Neuvirth being a division rival and with Holtby being just as inexperienced.

I'd take Emery over Montoya but I wouldn't want to give up anything worthwhile for him. Chicago needs him as insurance in case Crawford starts plays like his old self, so they're not looking to trade him any time soon.

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02-02-2013, 11:59 PM
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Ray Emery is an absolutely horrible NHL goaltender...how he has a job, I have absolutely no idea. Would never want him on the IceCaps, nevermind the Jets...

He has one year above a .905! (talking full season). And .905 is a pretty bad save percentage. Even the year he made the finals he posted a mere .907 in the playoffs, that team was overloaded on offense. And that was back before his injury issues and follies in Russia, he's been much worse since then...
I think that's a bit harsh. He was pretty good in the AHL.

And he's a serviceable back up for sure. He's streaky, absolutely, but he's a pretty good backup.

Tonight he faced almost 50 shots(47), and he only let in two. He was lights out tonight. I understand that it's only one game, but after coming back from necrosis, I think it's a sign of better things to come.

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02-03-2013, 12:08 AM
  #70
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I think that's a bit harsh. He was pretty good in the AHL.

And he's a serviceable back up for sure. He's streaky, absolutely, but he's a pretty good backup.

Tonight he faced almost 50 shots(47), and he only let in two. He was lights out tonight. I understand that it's only one game, but after coming back from necrosis, I think it's a sign of better things to come.
Would not want him on IceCaps due to his off-ice antics, not due to play. He is a fine AHL calibre netminder. If you have a reliable starter, that can log 65-70 games a year, sure he can be your backup, maybe if you are out of options elsewhere. He is not a very good goalie, and the stats show for themselves. I take Montoya over him no problem. There's 5-10 goalies in the AHL right now I'd rather have, and quite a few more over in Europe.

Emery was tied for 53rd in the league (among goalies playing more than 10 games) last season. 10 goalies were worse. 5 of those are out of the league...


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02-03-2013, 12:13 AM
  #71
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40. Alexander Burmistrov, Center, Winnipeg Jets

Burmistrov is a gifted player who can be a lot of fun to watch when he's on. He is very good with the puck, has high-end hockey sense, and skates well. Usually with players who have the tools, and are as young as Burmistrov, while the production has not yet come, it is a combination of their physical game/getting stronger and playing up to pace that are to blame. Those things tend to come with experience and gym work. Burmistrov has been solid at even-strength, and though he hasn't broken out yet, I see him as a pretty quality player in his prime.

I am not a Burmistrov fan. I like his work ethic and he can be a reliable defensive player but I see no offensive upside. I totally disagree with him having high-end hockey sense (at least on the offensive side of the game). He is not a natural scorer himself. He does not use his skills to create offensive chances and shots on goal. All his fancy dipsy doodling is on the perimiter. He has tunnel vision and does not use his wingers either.

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02-03-2013, 12:22 AM
  #72
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Would not want him on IceCaps due to his off-ice antics, not due to play. He is a fine AHL calibre netminder. If you have a reliable starter, that can log 65-70 games a year, sure he can be your backup, maybe if you are out of options elsewhere. He is not a very good goalie, and the stats show for themselves. I take Montoya over him no problem. There's 5-10 goalies in the AHL right now I'd rather have, and quite a few more over in Europe.

Emery was tied for 53rd in the league (among goalies playing more than 10 games) last season. 10 goalies were worse. 5 of those are out of the league...
A lot has changed since then. Stan Bowman said tonight that he was a model Blackhawk and has a great work ethic.

And Montoya sucks. There is no way he could have done what Emery did tonight.

You don't make 45 saves by accident. It's not like you got lucky. To me that shows that he can be more then what he is.

However, there are better options, so I won't harp on it too much.

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02-03-2013, 12:27 AM
  #73
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A lot has changed since then. Stan Bowman said tonight that he was a model Blackhawk and has a great work ethic.

And Montoya sucks. There is no way he could have done what Emery did tonight.

You don't make 45 saves by accident. It's not like you got lucky. To me that shows that he can be more then what he is.

However, there are better options, so I won't harp on it too much.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2011020218

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2011020038

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2010021093

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2010020879

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2008021209

Says otherwise. At least Montoya still has some upside, however small. Emery was never very good, and he has not gotten better, he will not be getting better at 30 years old after the numerous injuries and problems that have plagued him. Pretty much the very last goalie currently on an NHL roster I want playing for the Jets. Montoya is up there as well no doubt, and maybe Boucher. Those are the 3 worst goalies in the NHL, fairly easily, IMO. (off the top of my head).

EDIT: Is Dan Ellis still in the league? He would be there as well, can't remember if he's still playing.

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Old
02-03-2013, 12:42 AM
  #74
Sweech
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2011020218

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2011020038

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2010021093

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2010020879

http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2008021209

Says otherwise. At least Montoya still has some upside, however small. Emery was never very good, and he has not gotten better, he will not be getting better at 30 years old after the numerous injuries and problems that have plagued him. Pretty much the very last goalie currently on an NHL roster I want playing for the Jets. Montoya is up there as well no doubt, and maybe Boucher. Those are the 3 worst goalies in the NHL, fairly easily, IMO. (off the top of my head).

EDIT: Is Dan Ellis still in the league? He would be there as well, can't remember if he's still playing.
Boom. Every dog/goaltender has his day. I'd still rather have Montoya > Emery.

Really Montoya was looking pretty solid until he got a concussion.

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02-03-2013, 02:02 AM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
You guys need more patience with Burmi. He's young still. Most of the top from that draft class are making their debuts this year. He was rushed, but he still has potential, just needs to find some more offense. We've seen him do it in flashs. His floor is an aver age #3 center, but his ceiling is a lot higher.
Correct
Between his age of 23-28 he will put up good numbers and awesome defensive play. after I think he will be an elite pk with decent numbers.

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