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The Markov Conundrum

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Old
02-04-2013, 12:22 AM
  #76
bigtimehockeyfan999
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i don't believe we have to trade him but we do need to look at how we're going to replace him. we need another b0g minute loggin guy back there...pk is our offensive d-man but we need a big stopper

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02-04-2013, 12:29 AM
  #77
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There's no way they trade him if we are a playoff team, especially after last year's disaster.

On the other hand if we flop and aren't a playoff team I expect him to be shopped and also expect a massive return for him if he keeps up his play, can easily see a top prospect and a first back for him. Team will see the difference between the Habs with and without him and will pay a premium price.

Really, it's a win win for us, only bad thing that can happen if his knee busts up.

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02-04-2013, 04:44 AM
  #78
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No.

Should retire a Hab.

We made that mistake with Koivu. Emotionally, it feels very wrong. Then again, I feel that way about Pleks too (although he's one generation more recent.)

BTW, probably already mentioned in this thread, but "a subject that might illicit knee jerk reactions." Pun?

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02-04-2013, 04:54 AM
  #79
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02-04-2013, 05:56 AM
  #80
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He's the one guy I want to retire as a hab, usually I'm all for maximizing value on an asset, but with Markov, I hope his final contract is with us. I had hoped for the same with Koivu.

Everybody wants to sacrifice now for the future, but when you do this you end up being a bad hockey team.

So, no for me.

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02-04-2013, 05:58 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
He's the one guy I want to retire as a hab, usually I'm all for maximizing value on an asset, but with Markov, I hope his final contract is with us. I had hoped for the same with Koivu.

Everybody wants to sacrifice now for the future, but when you do this you end up being a bad hockey team.

So, no for me.
didnt you know, trading good players is the way to become a good team nowadays!

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02-04-2013, 06:34 AM
  #82
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didnt you know, trading good players is the way to become a good team nowadays!
Come on, Draft Pick and Cap Space are the two best players you can have.

They sell tickets and keep both your fans (especially season ticket holders and corporate suites) and your stockholders happy, very happy, because they know, there's always a bright future ahead, always ahead.

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02-04-2013, 06:39 AM
  #83
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For me to trade Markov, you'd have to extremely overpay. We're talking like Eberle straight up. Or Hamonic + Niño.

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02-04-2013, 06:53 AM
  #84
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For me to trade Markov, you'd have to extremely overpay. We're talking like Eberle straight up. Or Hamonic + Niño.
I think we all agree that Markov shouldn't be traded for a 2nd rounder.

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02-04-2013, 07:03 AM
  #85
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Not to mention the message it sends in lockeroom.. If you're in your 30s, playing great see yuhhh.. Also sends a bad message to fans after last years debaucle

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02-04-2013, 07:18 AM
  #86
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I agree with Lafleurs Guy on this one. I think Lafleurs Guy is correct about how many more good-to-great years of NHL play are likely left in Markov.

Now, because of the quick and sudden rise of the Gallys, this team has the most forward depth and overall balance/talent that it's had in a very, very long time. If we manage to stay in the top half of the league, standings-wise, then trading Markov could be trading a real chance to do well in the playoffs (and I think we do have that chance, given the rise of the Gallys).

OTOH, if we become a playoff bubble team, or worst, then we definitely have to consider trading Markov.

But I honestly hope it doesn't come to that. I hope this Habs team can keep it up! But there's still one test I want to see how this team handles - And that's a long road trip. Our 6-2 start is awesome, but 5 of those wins were at home. Let's see if the team can do it on the road too (I remember how the last shortened season had a Habs team that was gangbusters at home, but horrible on the road).

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02-04-2013, 08:06 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Dude, quit it with these dumb posts.

Its silly to argue semantics. We can go back and forth on his value all day long. All that matters is that if we got a good offer for him then great, take the deal.
I dont think we should pull the trigger so easily. It really depends on the return and where we are.
Ottawa was expected to be one of the worse teams last year, add in a new coach+system, and the growth of a Norris winner, all of a sudden they become a strong team.
It wouldn't surprise me if the same happened here.
If Markov stays healthy, and Price plays as well as he has, with our current depth, I don't think we should move Markov if we get a good return.
Having Someone like Markov not only helps our team tremendously, but he's a great model to have for the youngsters, and we have a lot of those.
So, I wouldn't just move him because we get a good value for him. I think a solid two way veteran on Defense would become a need if we move him, so we would need to get one in return.
Also, there's been a common factor every year we were great on the PP, Markov. So if we move him, we better make sure that whoever we have can make it work.

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02-04-2013, 08:17 AM
  #88
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It really all depends on where you see our 'window'. Are we chasing a Cup this year and next when Markov is still in his prime, or does the real window only open in a couple of years as he starts to decline?

If you believe we've suddenly become a legit contender, Markov obviously needs to stay. He's terrific. But as much as I'm loving our bounce-back, I don't believe our team can withstand the inevitable injuries and slumps to make a serious run this season (I'd love to be wrong!). I believe that this current team will bounce us no higher than back to bubble status -- a first-round playoff exit, possibly second -- which means I see Markov as the most valuable asset we have to secure our future.

I love the guy and admit it'll be tough to replace the Markov we're seeing with any upcoming prospect or through a trade. Unfortunately, it'll be just as tough to replace the Markov we're seeing with the future Markov we WILL see in two or three more years. We can't freeze-dry him, so the chances are that by the time the Habs are solid contenders, Markov will be on the decline. The amazing talent he's showing now may not be there later, so why not get something while we can? I'm not unsentimental, I get why people want to honour a classic player by letting him fade into the sunset with a Habs jersey on his back. But if we do that, chances are there won't be a Cup ring on his finger. Instead, let the season play out and see which GMs come shopping for a great D. Imagine adding another Gallagher, Pacioretty or Emelin to our roster, then imagine the difference that'll make in three years when Galchenyuk's become a PPG player and Tinordi and Beaulieu are part of our D.

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02-04-2013, 08:58 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
If you believe we've suddenly become a legit contender, Markov obviously needs to stay. He's terrific. But as much as I'm loving our bounce-back, I don't believe our team can withstand the inevitable injuries and slumps to make a serious run this season (I'd love to be wrong!). I believe that this current team will bounce us no higher than back to bubble status -- a first-round playoff exit, possibly second -- which means I see Markov as the most valuable asset we have to secure our future.

.
We'll know if we're a legit contender come trade deadline. If we are in a playoff spot, we've got to make a run at the Cup. That means Markov stays... It's a shortened season 1 or 2 good teams might not have time to make the playoffs. If there's a season where all bets are off, it's this one.

On the other hand, if we're at least a few points away from 8 spot, I think there's some vets that could be unloaded for picks and prospects... Worse spot would be if we're in 11-10-9th place come trade deadline, where we'd look for value trades...

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02-04-2013, 08:59 AM
  #90
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No way.

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02-04-2013, 09:00 AM
  #91
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Come on, Draft Pick and Cap Space are the two best players you can have.

They sell tickets and keep both your fans (especially season ticket holders and corporate suites) and your stockholders happy, very happy, because they know, there's always a bright future ahead, always ahead.
Right, we CAN'T trade him. Just like you said we COULDN'T trade Koivu...

The only reason we might not actually be able to deal him is if he's got a NTC and exercises it. Otherwise we should consider offers. Stupid not to do this and we should have learned our lesson from previous debacles.
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Not to mention the message it sends in lockeroom.. If you're in your 30s, playing great see yuhhh.. Also sends a bad message to fans after last years debaucle
Depends on the return. If we get something strong back then it sends a message that we're serious about going for a cup. It also sends a message to the room that mgmt believes that the team is good enough to win without him. Same message as when we dealt away Huet.
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
I dont think we should pull the trigger so easily. It really depends on the return and where we are.
Ottawa was expected to be one of the worse teams last year, add in a new coach+system, and the growth of a Norris winner, all of a sudden they become a strong team.
It wouldn't surprise me if the same happened here.
If Markov stays healthy, and Price plays as well as he has, with our current depth, I don't think we should move Markov if we get a good return.
Having Someone like Markov not only helps our team tremendously, but he's a great model to have for the youngsters, and we have a lot of those.
So, I wouldn't just move him because we get a good value for him. I think a solid two way veteran on Defense would become a need if we move him, so we would need to get one in return.
Also, there's been a common factor every year we were great on the PP, Markov. So if we move him, we better make sure that whoever we have can make it work.
Absolutely. If we come through the season at the top of the standings and all of a sudden it looks like we actually have a shot at something then sure keep him. But if we're struggling for a playoff spot? Different story.
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
It really all depends on where you see our 'window'. Are we chasing a Cup this year and next when Markov is still in his prime, or does the real window only open in a couple of years as he starts to decline?

If you believe we've suddenly become a legit contender, Markov obviously needs to stay. He's terrific. But as much as I'm loving our bounce-back, I don't believe our team can withstand the inevitable injuries and slumps to make a serious run this season (I'd love to be wrong!). I believe that this current team will bounce us no higher than back to bubble status -- a first-round playoff exit, possibly second -- which means I see Markov as the most valuable asset we have to secure our future.

I love the guy and admit it'll be tough to replace the Markov we're seeing with any upcoming prospect or through a trade. Unfortunately, it'll be just as tough to replace the Markov we're seeing with the future Markov we WILL see in two or three more years. We can't freeze-dry him, so the chances are that by the time the Habs are solid contenders, Markov will be on the decline. The amazing talent he's showing now may not be there later, so why not get something while we can? I'm not unsentimental, I get why people want to honour a classic player by letting him fade into the sunset with a Habs jersey on his back. But if we do that, chances are there won't be a Cup ring on his finger. Instead, let the season play out and see which GMs come shopping for a great D. Imagine adding another Gallagher, Pacioretty or Emelin to our roster, then imagine the difference that'll make in three years when Galchenyuk's become a PPG player and Tinordi and Beaulieu are part of our D.
Exactly. Great post.

And the window for winning might be a lot earlier than we expected. I figured Galchenyuk would be a rookie next year and if we were lucky would start to really produce the year after that. If he's a point per game player this year though? Then the window for winning has opened now and that totally changes things.

Carey Price is an ace. Subban is a legit first pairing guy and we've had secondary scoring masquerading as top scoring. If we can actually add in a guy who's an 80 point player our team is going to be a lot stronger than its been. And maybe the window with Markov opens now.

If we go into one of our trademark slides though and we're struggling for the playoffs, we should definitely look at dealing him. Your point on freeze drying him is great. It's a diminishing return so it all comes down to whether or not we have a realistic chance of winning now. If we do, then its a different story.
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Originally Posted by Erik Estrada View Post
We'll know if we're a legit contender come trade deadline. If we are in a playoff spot, we've got to make a run at the Cup. That means Markov stays... It's a shortened season 1 or 2 good teams might not have time to make the playoffs. If there's a season where all bets are off, it's this one.
On the other hand, if we're at least a few points away from 8 spot, I think there's some vets that could be unloaded for picks and prospects... Worse spot would be if we're in 11-10-9th place come trade deadline, where we'd look for value trades...
That's true. Very bipolar season and its weird seeing some top teams struggle. If we got in we just might get an easy ride with the shortened season.

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Old
02-04-2013, 09:23 AM
  #92
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I don't see why there is a 'conundrum'. Were Wings fans talking about a Lidstrom Conundrum? We have a fantastic defenseman that has spent his whole career with the Habs. We should be crossing our fingers that he can keep playing at a top level for another 3-4-5 years, not planning on when to move him. Even if/when his play dips, stop and realize how much he is helping guys like Emelin, Gorges, Subban, just by being around. Hopefully that extends to Beaulieu, Tinordi, etc. You don't just plug in some other body and expect the same type of result.

Some guys you don't trade away. Guys like Markov. Also, I'm still a bit upset that Koivu didn't finish his career here.

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02-04-2013, 09:31 AM
  #93
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There's no way they trade him if we are a playoff team, especially after last year's disaster.

On the other hand if we flop and aren't a playoff team I expect him to be shopped and also expect a massive return for him if he keeps up his play, can easily see a top prospect and a first back for him. Team will see the difference between the Habs with and without him and will pay a premium price.

Really, it's a win win for us, only bad thing that can happen if his knee busts up.
Here's the thing. I do not believe it is possible for BOTH of these two things to happen:

1. Markov is healthy and he keeps up his great play
2. Habs are not a playoff team

Of course we might not be a playoff team if Markov is hurt or sub-par, but that is not what is being assumed here. We are assuming great play, justifying a great return, while the Habs are crap.

Not happening.

So if Markov is healthy and playing great, and we are in the hunt, yet someone wants him, we need a hockey trade that includes significant assets NOW, not only futures.

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02-04-2013, 09:39 AM
  #94
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I believe that this current team will bounce us no higher than back to bubble status -- a first-round playoff exit, possibly second -- which means I see Markov as the most valuable asset we have to secure our future.
Jimminy crickets, some people set the bar high.

You DO realize that 26 teams are eliminated by the second round of the playoffs?

Good teams can easily lose in the first round of the playoffs, and especially the second round.

Take just one example, 2010-11. The Habs took the eventual Stanley Cup champs to overtime in the 7th game of the playoffs, without Andrei Markov. Yet many write off that season as "first-round loss".

Once again, by your definition, only 4 teams are not "bubble"!!

That is ridiculous. The league will never be made up of 26 sellers and 4 buyers.

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02-04-2013, 09:48 AM
  #95
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Right, we CAN'T trade him. Just like you said we COULDN'T trade Koivu...
And they didn't trade Koivu, he finished his contract with the Habs and wasn't offered another one. Which was, in my opinion, stupid.

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02-04-2013, 10:01 AM
  #96
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Depends on the return. If we get something strong back then it sends a message that we're serious about going for a cup. It also sends a message to the room that mgmt believes that the team is good enough to win without him. Same message as when we dealt away Huet.
Yeah I get what you're saying there but in retrospect was trading Huet that great of an idea? Price had a rough couple of years without a veteran backup there helping him through it. I think having that veteran presence on blue line is important for Subban's continued development, and a veteran presence that he can respect.

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02-04-2013, 10:07 AM
  #97
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The problem is that there just isn't this big gap between 'bubble teams' and 'cup contenders' that some people like to imagine (usually with the benefit of hindsight). And certainly not one that you can predict a couple of months in advance at the trade deadline.

That's why teams who are in contention for the play offs don't trade away their best players because they don't think they will win. Because that is the way to guarantee losing and building a losing culture for following years.

For evidence we don't have to look further than the last two cup winners. LA couldn't have been confident of even making the playoffs at the trade deadline last and as for the Bruins the year before, I'm sure you can still search on this site and find all the negative, angry 'fire Julian', 'fire Chiarelli', 'this team has no chance' threads from the Boston board in the spring of that year and indeed even through the first couple of rounds of the playoffs.

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02-04-2013, 10:10 AM
  #98
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I find it interesting that the same "fans" who wanted to get rid of Markov before this season's start are the same ones who want to trade him now. They simple changed reasons. Before the start of the season. He's done for - he has nothing left. Now it's he's an elite player but won't keep his value.

First off Markov has shown that even though some of his physical attributes have deteriorated he is still an elite d-man. Markov is one of the few players that doesn't play on instinct but thinks the game. Like Lindstrom he'll be a very valuable until the day of his retirement. (Note for all those that can't read properly .I'm not saying he is as good Lindstrom. I'm saying he has the same ability as Lindstrom to retain his abilities to the very end of his career.

So what does that mean? That means that Markov at 36 will be better than Markov at 28. Why. Because he will play as well but he will be a mentor to our up and coming d-men.

He just turned 34 in Dec. I can see Markov playing another 4 years at this level. Forget the horsecrap that he could get hurt. Galchenyuk could get hurt - let's trade him. Gallagher could get hurt - let's trade him. Every player on the team could get hurt let's trade everyone.

If Columbus comes to us and offers Murray and two of their 1st round picks maybe I would be inclined (I said inclined) to trade Markov but otherwise he stays with the Habs.

Therrien has turned this team into a very competitive squad. I think our Stanley Cup window is within the next two-three years. In Those two-three years what does this team need? A rookie d-man and two top picks. Or a smart, at the top of his game, elite d-man?

I think keeping Markov would help us towards getting a Cup. Trading him means we're postponing our quest for the Cup.

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02-04-2013, 10:13 AM
  #99
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I don't see why there is a 'conundrum'. Were Wings fans talking about a Lidstrom Conundrum? We have a fantastic defenseman that has spent his whole career with the Habs. We should be crossing our fingers that he can keep playing at a top level for another 3-4-5 years, not planning on when to move him. Even if/when his play dips, stop and realize how much he is helping guys like Emelin, Gorges, Subban, just by being around. Hopefully that extends to Beaulieu, Tinordi, etc. You don't just plug in some other body and expect the same type of result.

Some guys you don't trade away. Guys like Markov. Also, I'm still a bit upset that Koivu didn't finish his career here.
Quoted for truth. The comparison to Lidstrom is a good one but the draftpick obsessed will not like this one bit.

Plus, Markov could be a player that plays well into his 40's, we don't know what his career span is.

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02-04-2013, 10:14 AM
  #100
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Jimminy crickets, some people set the bar high.

You DO realize that 26 teams are eliminated by the second round of the playoffs?

Good teams can easily lose in the first round of the playoffs, and especially the second round.

Take just one example, 2010-11. The Habs took the eventual Stanley Cup champs to overtime in the 7th game of the playoffs, without Andrei Markov. Yet many write off that season as "first-round loss".

Once again, by your definition, only 4 teams are not "bubble"!!

That is ridiculous. The league will never be made up of 26 sellers and 4 buyers.
I think we were a PO team at the beginning of last year, with Markov. The year prior, we were never outside a PO position and comfortably finished as 6th in the East. That was without Markov, but with the solid presence of Hammer and Wiz.

We started the year on the wrong foot, with youngsters on D that needed time to adapt (Emelin/Diaz coming from Europe) and Markov out.
By game three, Markov, Campoli and Spacek were already all out. We were playing with our 6-7-8th Dmen (Emelin/Diaz/Weber). So, not so surprising that we had a shaky start.
However, after our bad stretch early on, we started playing better, above the .500 mark (if we removed our bad start from the the record). By the time we fired Martin, our record had gotten back to .500. After that, we experienced some of the worse coaching I had seen in a long time. A coaching staff that clearly looked to be in way over their heads.
Combine that with trades that got rid of our depth, on top of other injuries, and we ended up in the last place. But we weren't a last place team on paper, no way.

I didn't expect us to be playing as well as we have so far this year, but I certainly didn't believe we were a bottom team either. A healthy Markov makes a world of a difference, I think people had forgotten how good he was. I didn't put too much weight on his return because it was a huge question mark, having missed so much hockey over the years.
I also figured Emelin and Diaz would perform better, just as they did last year as the season progressed. With PK and Gorges, I definitely thought our D squad was at the very least decent. Maybe too similar, but not bad.
Up front, it was about Bourque and how he will rebound. Having seen Gomez get worse and worse every year, people were skeptical, can't blame them. But so far he's been great.
Gomez was bought out, which solved another problem.
Galchenyuk and Gallagher, I don't think anybody expected them to have the amazing start they've had. That's a great surprise.

If we keep playing the way we have, and get lucky on injuries (or lack there of), then we can have a very surprising team. Way better than just a PO bubble team.

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