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Old
02-04-2013, 11:09 AM
  #426
TehDoak
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Are you insinuating that Tallinder wasn't a critical component of Myers rookie year?

I always thought you were on the rational side... one of us who allowed reality change our opinions over time.
Sure, having a steady partner did wonders for Myers. And, in 2010, Tallinder was steady.

But, if you really want to talk about rationality, let's look at where Tallinder is at today and not fawn over what he was 3 years ago. He's coming off a season where he was out half the year He's averaging 16 minutes on a team that doesn't exactly scream defensive depth. He's their #6 d-man. He has a 3.3 million dollar contract that extends into next year.

Yet, this 34 year old d-man will magically fix everything that ails Tyler Myers. Nevermind the fact we have 8 D-men on the roster currently and one making 2 million to play for our Minors team. Yes, Henrik Tallinder is the magic cure all.

I agree wholeheartedly that we need to do something about the defensive situation. But I disagree that taking on a contract that, even IF it 'fixes' myers, is essentially a band aid rather than a legit long term solution.

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02-04-2013, 11:11 AM
  #427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Stafford (3 yrs)
Leopold (1 yr)
= 7.0 cap

Tallinder (2 yrs)
Zubrus (1 yr)
= 6.775 cap

Please?
Let's see what Drury is up to while we're at it.


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02-04-2013, 12:17 PM
  #428
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Pension Plan Puppets did a nice analysis concerning why it'd be a good idea to throw an offer sheet at O'Reilly. Here are some tidbits (link below):

Quote:
The first thing we'll take a look at to answer that question is his scoring. O'Reilly made his debut in the NHL at just 18 scoring 26 points in 81 games. The next year he scored 26 points again, this time in 74 games, increasing his per-game scoring as he saw his shooting percentage double. Then during the last NHL season in 2011-12 he more than doubled his scoring to 55 points in 81 games, seeing increased ice time and better linemates, playing much of the season on Colorado's most effective line with Gabriel Landeskog. How good is 55 points for a 20 year old? For comparison purposes I like to use per-game stats to account for missed games, and O'Reilly scored 0.68 points per game as a 20 year old. Here's a list of comparable players from the last 15 NHL seasons:
The chart includes the following: Vincent Lecavalier, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, Martin Havlat, Steve Bernier (in 39 games, in the scoring-enhanced 2005-06 season), O'Reilly, Ryan Getzlaf, Alex Tanguay, Wojtek Wolski, and Nathan Horton. Pretty nice list. Throw in his elite defense, and that's a heck of a player. Not exactly "3rd line-esque" as has been suggested by some.

Quote:
Of the players on this list, only the bottom two and Steve Bernier have failed to ever hit 70 points. Bernier only played 39 games in his 20 year old season and seems to have benefitted from the big scoring boost in the 2005-06 season, so I think he can be safely discarded. Wolski is a bizarre case, but Horton has proven to be a reliable first line player (if not an elite one), generally scoring in the 60-70 point range over 82 games. So this list strongly suggests that O'Reilly is a legitimate, long-term first line talent.

The closest player to O'Reilly on this list, you may have noticed, is Ryan Getzlaf. Not only is their PPG total the same, but their individual goal and assist rates are very close too.
Quote:
So that's scoring but scoring isn't everything in the NHL. Winning teams tend to have strong possession stats (Corsi/Fenwick)... I put together a chart of how many of the players Ryan O'Reilly played with had their Corsi % boosted by playing with him over the past two years. I restricted it to players who were on the ice for at least 100 minutes with O'Reilly to reduce the potential for strange outliers who only played a few shifts together...
The chart shows only one forward and one defenseman have better possession stats away from O'Reilly than with him.

Quote:
It's pretty clear that O'Reilly is a player who drives play and makes those around him better. A play-making centre who can put up points while driving play and locking down the defensive side of the game? Sounds like exactly what the Leafs need on the Phil Kessel line.
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...t-ryan-oreilly

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02-04-2013, 12:36 PM
  #429
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Pension Plan Puppets did a nice analysis concerning why it'd be a good idea to throw an offer sheet at O'Reilly. Here are some tidbits (link below):



The chart includes the following: Vincent Lecavalier, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, Martin Havlat, Steve Bernier (in 39 games, in the scoring-enhanced 2005-06 season), O'Reilly, Ryan Getzlaf, Alex Tanguay, Wojtek Wolski, and Nathan Horton. Pretty nice list. Throw in his elite defense, and that's a heck of a player. Not exactly "3rd line-esque" as has been suggested by some.





The chart shows only one forward and one defenseman have better possession stats away from O'Reilly than with him.



http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...t-ryan-oreilly
I'm all for you on the "Let's go after Ryan O'Reilly' bandwagon. He's a great player. And IF HE WERE AVAILABLE, let's pursue a trade. The issue is Colorado is and will be unwilling to move him.

The offersheet route really makes zero sense. Let's say we magically pull it offer, put in an offersheet, Colorado declines to match, we get RoR.

What happens when Cody Hodgson is a RFA this summer. What are his and his agents expectations. 55 pts? Surely Hodgson will score at AT LEAST that pace this year. What about Grigerenko in 2015?

Also, did we mention that its possible we could see the cap drop below 60 million in 2014-2015? If not lower? Look at the contracts the Oilers have given to their OWN PLAYERS since the offersheet debacle in 2007

Hemsky: 5 million
Horcoff: 5.5 million

RoR is a great player. But offersheeting is not the answer. It just isn't. You overpay both in salary and in assets outgoing and you mess up your internal salary structure, which is going to be even MORE important with the drop in cap in 2014

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02-04-2013, 12:56 PM
  #430
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Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
I'm all for you on the "Let's go after Ryan O'Reilly' bandwagon. He's a great player. And IF HE WERE AVAILABLE, let's pursue a trade. The issue is Colorado is and will be unwilling to move him.

The offersheet route really makes zero sense. Let's say we magically pull it offer, put in an offersheet, Colorado declines to match, we get RoR.

What happens when Cody Hodgson is a RFA this summer. What are his and his agents expectations. 55 pts? Surely Hodgson will score at AT LEAST that pace this year. What about Grigerenko in 2015?

Also, did we mention that its possible we could see the cap drop below 60 million in 2014-2015? If not lower? Look at the contracts the Oilers have given to their OWN PLAYERS since the offersheet debacle in 2007

Hemsky: 5 million
Horcoff: 5.5 million

RoR is a great player. But offersheeting is not the answer. It just isn't. You overpay both in salary and in assets outgoing and you mess up your internal salary structure, which is going to be even MORE important with the drop in cap in 2014
wait... your argument is that the offersheet could lead to a scenario where we have a 3 deep center core all locked up long term in the 5-6 million per range (based on the fact that they played to a level to earn those contracts)

OH THE HORROR!!!!!

We should definitely avoid having our center core locked up long term... that would be terrible

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02-04-2013, 01:17 PM
  #431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
wait... your argument is that the offersheet could lead to a scenario where we have a 3 deep center core all locked up long term in the 5-6 million per range (based on the fact that they played to a level to earn those contracts)

OH THE HORROR!!!!!

We should definitely avoid having our center core locked up long term... that would be terrible
say you offersheet O'Rielly, what would the AAV be? my guess is the Avs match anything under 5.5.

Say Buffalo offers AAV 5.5 and the Avalanche don't match it would cost a 1st round pick,2nd, and 3rd.

Right now I truly believe that we will have a top 10 pick and maybe even top 5 or better, so basically 3 picks in the top 65 in the draft for O'Reilly. I think you will get 3 good players, with the top pick being as good or better than him.

To me that isn't worth it, part of the reason is that we have Girgensons who imo will be able to do what he can in a few years.

A trade would be a more realistic option

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02-04-2013, 01:28 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
say you offersheet O'Rielly, what would the AAV be? my guess is the Avs match anything under 5.5.

Say Buffalo offers AAV 5.5 and the Avalanche don't match it would cost a 1st round pick,2nd, and 3rd.

Right now I truly believe that we will have a top 10 pick and maybe even top 5 or better, so basically 3 picks in the top 65 in the draft for O'Reilly. I think you will get 3 good players, with the top pick being as good or better than him.

To me that isn't worth it, part of the reason is that we have Girgensons who imo will be able to do what he can in a few years.

A trade would be a more realistic option
RFA Ccompensation is done by total contract over 5 years (if the contract is MORE than 5 years

I'm comfortable in the TWO 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd (because I recognize talent like Oreilly)

Basically, We could go upwards of 8.3 over 5 years (for RFA compensation) but spread it over 7 for cap purposes

My offer to try and actually get RoR would be

7 yrs / 41.5 mil / 5.9 cap

In RFA Compensation it would look like this :
5 yrs / 41.5 mil / 8.3 compensation value
TWO 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd

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02-04-2013, 01:28 PM
  #433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
Right now I truly believe that we will have a top 10 pick and maybe even top 5 or better, so basically 3 picks in the top 65 in the draft for O'Reilly. I think you will get 3 good players, with the top pick being as good or better than him.

To me that isn't worth it, part of the reason is that we have Girgensons who imo will be able to do what he can in a few years.

A trade would be a more realistic option
Girgensons is a prospect so until he can perform at that level you just hope he can be as effective as RoR. Additionally, offer sheeting RoR and having him in the lineup you'd hope he'd improve your team so you end up picking near the tail end of the 1st vice the beginning. You don't want to be like Edmonton where you picked up a complimentary piece and it didn't improve you (Penner).

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02-04-2013, 02:27 PM
  #434
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
wait... your argument is that the offersheet could lead to a scenario where we have a 3 deep center core all locked up long term in the 5-6 million per range (based on the fact that they played to a level to earn those contracts)

OH THE HORROR!!!!!

We should definitely avoid having our center core locked up long term... that would be terrible
The cap is going down in '13-'14, and will likely decrease again in '14-'15.

Now, if we could sit down and WITHOUT FAIL, pencil in Grigerenko as a #1 center, franchise forward by Game 1, 2014, then this isn't a bad plan.

But the fact is, we can't know that. I wouldn't even call it a safe bet at this point.

I think we can be somewhat secure that Hodgson will be, if nothing else, a 1 way second line center at this point. I'm hopeful he can develop a bit of a two way game in time, but he certainly appears to be lacking defensive awareness. However, even that somewhat tame prediction isn't a certainty.

Offersheeting O'Reilly would be, essentially, doubling down on our young core. Saying 'This is our missing piece and we're going to do anything and everything to aquire it'

I like O'Reilly. I really do. But do I think adding him will bridge the gap from where we are now to stanely cup contenders?

No. No I don't. It's too early in the season to throw in the towel, too early to panic.

If O'Reilly does become available via trade, let's get in there, hell, let's overpay for him. But, I think an offersheet would have repercussions not only with the assets you have to give up, but our relations with other teams in the trade market, as well throwing a wrench in any salary structure.

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02-04-2013, 03:03 PM
  #435
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
The cap is going down in '13-'14, and will likely decrease again in '14-'15.
At the very least, that's an arguable assumption.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
I think we can be somewhat secure that Hodgson will be, if nothing else, a 1 way second line center at this point. I'm hopeful he can develop a bit of a two way game in time, but he certainly appears to be lacking defensive awareness. However, even that somewhat tame prediction isn't a certainty.
Great, even more reason to OS O'Reilly. Acquiring O'Reilly effectively hedges our bets that two of Ennis, Hodgson, and Grigorenko will turn into viable top-9 centers. Hodgson can play average difficulty minutes--his on-ice SV% will eventually improve from the .821 it's at now--while ROR can play the tough minutes. Give Grigs or Ennis the easy offensive minutes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
Offersheeting O'Reilly would be, essentially, doubling down on our young core. Saying 'This is our missing piece and we're going to do anything and everything to aquire it'
I think all it says is that "this is a proven commodity, and we desperately need what he provides." He is, and we do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
I like O'Reilly. I really do. But do I think adding him will bridge the gap from where we are now to stanely cup contenders? No. No I don't. It's too early in the season to throw in the towel, too early to panic.
You're operating from the assumption that he has to bridge the entire gap from where we are to SC contender. He doesn't. But if you believe he's the type of piece a team needs if it's going to achieve the ultimate goal--and I and others do--then you have to get the player somehow.

And such a move wouldn't be about this season. Sure, it'd improve us in the short-term. But it would be about a year or two or three down the road when some of the younger players are in their primes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
If O'Reilly does become available via trade, let's get in there, hell, let's overpay for him. But, I think an offersheet would have repercussions not only with the assets you have to give up, but our relations with other teams in the trade market, as well throwing a wrench in any salary structure.
I think a lot of the OS talk presumes that a trade can't be made on better terms than what we'd give up in OS compensation. Sure, it'd be nice if Stafford + Adam + Pysyk could get the deal done. But it won't.

I also don't think it throws a wrench in the salary structure, either. Did Hodgson score 55 pts as a 20 yr old while playing the toughest minutes on his team at the toughest position? Why are we even talking about Grigorenko's second contract right now?

You don't bypass a player you believe is a cog in becoming a contender just because of some speculative concern about what it'd do to the demands of your other players. You just do it, and figure out those other guys' contract situations when they come up.

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02-04-2013, 03:40 PM
  #436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Stafford (3 yrs)
Leopold (1 yr)
= 7.0 cap

Tallinder (2 yrs)
Zubrus (1 yr)
= 6.775 cap

Please?
This would actually be a dream trade for me. I think most people overlooked Tallinders contribution to Myers' rookie season, he has looked a different player since and I have always been a big Zubrus fan since his short stint in Buffalo.

Don't see why NJ would make this tho, especially with Parise no longer there.


Just to say though - a general comment - I still have high hopes for the squad the Sabres currently have. I'm not giving up on them this soon. Maybe they need to look at one or two changes but they don't need to destroy the entire team just yet. Its still early in the season under what I would think are very strange circumstances for the players.

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02-04-2013, 03:55 PM
  #437
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Maybe i'm right, maybe i'm wrong ...

I just find it weird, odd, wrong, dumb etc., that a player can be so good as to get drafted in the first round to the NHL. And then make the club. And then only have success with ONE player out of all the players he's come into contact with while playing for an NHL team. To me that says more about the player (not as talented as projected). It's just weird to understand that as a fan of Myers.

Overall, i think Myers is still a developing, and jumping the gun and calling him a bust or saying he's not talented to be a top pairing defenseman is dumb. It may take him another 1, 2, 3 more years to put it all together. Getting Tallinder back for the purpose of HOPEFULLY pulling Myers out of his funk isn't something i would like to see done. Others would, and i can respect that. Maybe salary and age have something to do with it too.

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02-04-2013, 04:00 PM
  #438
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Originally Posted by ZZamboni View Post
Maybe i'm right, maybe i'm wrong ...

I just find it weird, odd, wrong, dumb etc., that a player can be so good as to get drafted in the first round to the NHL. And then make the club. And then only have success with ONE player out of all the players he's come into contact with while playing for an NHL team. To me that says more about the player (not as talented as projected). It's just weird to understand that as a fan of Myers.

Overall, i think Myers is still a developing, and jumping the gun and calling him a bust or saying he's not talented to be a top pairing defenseman is dumb. It may take him another 1, 2, 3 more years to put it all together. Getting Tallinder back for the purpose of HOPEFULLY pulling Myers out of his funk isn't something i would like to see done. Others would, and i can respect that. Maybe salary and age have something to do with it too.
My honest opinion?

He's either injured, out of shape, or both.

Most of his "gaffes" this year have been when he's stop skating or gotten beat to a puck. I've never seen a hockey player spend so much time gliding around. This wasn't such a big part of his game even last year.

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02-04-2013, 04:01 PM
  #439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyH3aven View Post
My honest opinion?

He's either injured, out of shape, or both.

Most of his "gaffes" this year have been when he's stop skating or gotten beat to a puck. I've never seen a hockey player spend so much time gliding around. This wasn't such a big part of his game even last year.
In general, he's reaching with his stick way too much instead of skating and/or using the body. Something is definitely off.

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02-04-2013, 04:40 PM
  #440
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To

Drew Stafford
Luke Adam
Jordan Leopold


To

Dan Girardi
Brian Boyle


We get a defensive defenseman and a center who can win a face-off. The Rangers get a winger that can score and play physical, a center prospect, and a defenseman to replace Girardi.

Thoughts?


Last edited by buffswords: 02-04-2013 at 04:49 PM.
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02-04-2013, 04:42 PM
  #441
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To

Drew Stafford
Luke Adam
Jordan Leopold


To

Dan Girardi
Dan Boyle


We get a defensive defenseman and a center who can win a face-off. The Rangers get a winger that can score and play physical, a center prospect, and a defenseman to replace Girardi.

Thoughts?
I'm assuming you mean Brian Boyle? Dan Boyle plays for the Sharks.

There's really no reason for them to trade a good player who is playing well for them for a pack of okay players who aren't playing well. Quantity is really a non-starter in trade negotiations.

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02-04-2013, 04:52 PM
  #442
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Sather would laugh and hang up the phone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buffswords View Post
To

Drew Stafford
Luke Adam
Jordan Leopold


To

Dan Girardi
Brian Boyle


We get a defensive defenseman and a center who can win a face-off. The Rangers get a winger that can score and play physical, a center prospect, and a defenseman to replace Girardi.

Thoughts?

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02-04-2013, 05:35 PM
  #443
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Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
The cap is going down in '13-'14, and will likely decrease again in '14-'15.

Now, if we could sit down and WITHOUT FAIL, pencil in Grigerenko as a #1 center, franchise forward by Game 1, 2014, then this isn't a bad plan.

But the fact is, we can't know that. I wouldn't even call it a safe bet at this point.


Your argument now makes no sense what so ever. You started by arguing that a big 2nd contract for Oreilly would put Buffalo in a difficult situation with Hodgson and Grigs... but you added the caveat, if they played up to the same level

You can't argue that "we'll have to pay them big money if they play good" and then argue, "what if they don't deserve it".


Quote:
I think we can be somewhat secure that Hodgson will be, if nothing else, a 1 way second line center at this point. I'm hopeful he can develop a bit of a two way game in time, but he certainly appears to be lacking defensive awareness. However, even that somewhat tame prediction isn't a certainty.
I wont run us off course, but I'll just say I am not worried about the development of Hodgson's 2 way game, to a respectable level.

Quote:
Offersheeting O'Reilly would be, essentially, doubling down on our young core. Saying 'This is our missing piece and we're going to do anything and everything to aquire it'
It is our missing piece (for the forward core)... it also happens to be an incredibly difficult piece to add (50+ pt, dominant 2 way centers don't grow on trees).


Quote:
I like O'Reilly. I really do. But do I think adding him will bridge the gap from where we are now to stanely cup contenders?
Bridge the gap? No. But a core support structure in the bridge? Definitely

No. No I don't. It's too early in the season to throw in the towel, too early to panic.

Quote:
If O'Reilly does become available via trade, let's get in there, hell, let's overpay for him. But, I think an offersheet would have repercussions not only with the assets you have to give up, but our relations with other teams in the trade market, as well throwing a wrench in any salary structure.
the only valid point you have is repercussions from other owners/GMs... if there is such a thing.

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02-04-2013, 05:38 PM
  #444
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Lately, you defend my positions a lot... and are far better at it.

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02-04-2013, 07:09 PM
  #445
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What has Hodgson or Grigorenko done to show they're a #1 center? Signing O'Reilly will make it hard to resign Miller-Pominville-Vanek and doesn't justify giving up 2 top 10 picks to get.... let alone doesn't sure up the center position for a decade. Isn't Grigenson suppose to be the Sabres' O'Reilly in 3 years?

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02-04-2013, 07:21 PM
  #446
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What has Hodgson or Grigorenko done to show they're a #1 center? Signing O'Reilly will make it hard to resign Miller-Pominville-Vanek and doesn't justify giving up 2 top 10 picks to get.... let alone doesn't sure up the center position for a decade. Isn't Grigenson suppose to be the Sabres' O'Reilly in 3 years?
Well, he's a PPG so far and the center on the best line in the league right now.

Small sample size and all, but that's really all we have to go off of. Based on his skill-set and draft pedigree I think it's fair to project him to be that guy until he proves he can't be.

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02-04-2013, 07:23 PM
  #447
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RFA Ccompensation is done by total contract over 5 years (if the contract is MORE than 5 years

I'm comfortable in the TWO 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd (because I recognize talent like Oreilly)

Basically, We could go upwards of 8.3 over 5 years (for RFA compensation) but spread it over 7 for cap purposes

My offer to try and actually get RoR would be

7 yrs / 41.5 mil / 5.9 cap

In RFA Compensation it would look like this :
5 yrs / 41.5 mil / 8.3 compensation value
TWO 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd
Would love RoR and have no problem with your suggested terms. Since we picked up a second 1st this past year, that second 1st for RoR should not sting as bad.

V-H-K
F-RoR-Ennis\Staff\Ott\FA
G-G-A

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02-04-2013, 08:48 PM
  #448
Girgenburger
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Originally Posted by dma0034 View Post
What has Hodgson or Grigorenko done to show they're a #1 center? Signing O'Reilly will make it hard to resign Miller-Pominville-Vanek and doesn't justify giving up 2 top 10 picks to get.... let alone doesn't sure up the center position for a decade. Isn't Grigenson suppose to be the Sabres' O'Reilly in 3 years?
Honestly Hodgson has played awesome this year. He is attacking the net and also starting to see some of Vanek and Pominville's tendencies, so the chemistry improves. I notice he's way quicker than he was in his 20 or so games last year. That's the product of his summer work with Gary Roberts. For me, he's more untouchable than anyone other than Pominville and Grigorenko. As far as saying he's a #1 C, I wouldn't go that far. I see him as a Drury-type who will be a great 2C for years to come.

Also, don't think we should be so hasty to acquire O'Reilly for those assets. Girgensons' skill set is so eerily similar to O'Reilly's that I tend to agree with you that he will be a similar player for us a few years down the road.

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Old
02-04-2013, 09:12 PM
  #449
Jame
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Originally Posted by wearegodawful View Post
Honestly Hodgson has played awesome this year. He is attacking the net and also starting to see some of Vanek and Pominville's tendencies, so the chemistry improves. I notice he's way quicker than he was in his 20 or so games last year. That's the product of his summer work with Gary Roberts. For me, he's more untouchable than anyone other than Pominville and Grigorenko. As far as saying he's a #1 C, I wouldn't go that far. I see him as a Drury-type who will be a great 2C for years to come.

Also, don't think we should be so hasty to acquire O'Reilly for those assets. Girgensons' skill set is so eerily similar to O'Reilly's that I tend to agree with you that he will be a similar player for us a few years down the road.
why do people keep saying that... no they aren't.

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Old
02-04-2013, 09:44 PM
  #450
Zip15
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
why do people keep saying that... no they aren't.
It's certainly way too early to tell, but even if they were similar, why do people think it's a problem to have two players like that?

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