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The 2013 Draft Thread: Not Winnin' For #(??)...

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Old
02-04-2013, 12:03 PM
  #276
SackTastic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AirBriere48 View Post
It's a message board. The thread is purely for fun. Relax.
Nested if scenarios aren't really all that fun.

IF the Sabres continue to suck for the next 3 months, and IF they have a high lottery pick and IF both players are available.....

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02-04-2013, 12:03 PM
  #277
1972
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Originally Posted by Afino View Post
Changed under the new CBA. You can finish ANYWHERE in the bottom 14.

I love how you capitalize something that you are likely wrong about, any team can win the lottery but you can only drop 1 spot.

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02-04-2013, 12:04 PM
  #278
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Based on my assumption, that we will draft outside the top 5... i think Zadarov is going to BPA for us. I'm on board with Big Z

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02-04-2013, 12:04 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
I love how you capitalize something that you are likely wrong about, any team can win the lottery but you can only drop 1 spot.
is that true?

CBA nerds, report!

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02-04-2013, 12:05 PM
  #280
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MacKinnon would leave us with unbelievable upside down the middle in Hodgson, Grigorenko, MacKinnon and Girgensons.

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02-04-2013, 12:06 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
is that true?

CBA nerds, report!
It's what I have heard is going to happen, it isn't finalized yet.

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02-04-2013, 12:06 PM
  #282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
is that true?

CBA nerds, report!
From what was reported around the time of the agreement, yes, that is correct.

The weighting system remains the same as far as chance to win, but now if you win you get 1st overall.

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02-04-2013, 12:09 PM
  #283
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
From what was reported around the time of the agreement, yes, that is correct.

The weighting system remains the same as far as chance to win, but now if you win you get 1st overall.
that would be a relief...

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02-04-2013, 12:09 PM
  #284
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remember when the Devils won to pick 4th? in the new scenario they would have the 1st pick, their is a good chance if you are the worst team you will still get the 1st pick


Last edited by 1972: 02-04-2013 at 12:20 PM.
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02-04-2013, 12:12 PM
  #285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
remember when the Devils won to pick 4th? in the new scenario they would have the 1st pick, most likely if you are the worst team you will still get the 1st pick
Tell that to columbus

You are less likely today to get the #1 pick, if you are the worst team, because you are drawing against 13 other teams... in the past you were drawing you ~20-25% against 4 teams (since the other 9 couldn't move to #1)

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02-04-2013, 12:14 PM
  #286
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In 2012... the odds were
25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
6.2% - Anaheim Ducks - 80 points
4.7% - Minnesota Wild - 81 points
3.6% - Carolina Hurricanes - 82 points
2.7% - Winnipeg Jets - 84 points
2.1% - Tampa Bay Lightning - 84 points
1.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 88 points
1.1% - Buffalo Sabres - 89 points
0.8% - Dallas Stars - 89 points
0.5% - Calgary Flames - 90 points


But in reality, Columbus really had these odds :
48.2% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points

Because the teams outside the bottom 5, couldn't move to #1

If the percentages stay the same, the worst team goes from a 48% chance to get the first pick...down to a 25% chance

I would hardly call 25% "most likely"

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02-04-2013, 12:20 PM
  #287
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Jame, and math, is correct.

It's a good change IMO. It also increases the odds that you'll lose a draft position, but the tradeoff for anyone to get that first overall make that ok IMO.

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02-04-2013, 12:20 PM
  #288
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Based on this season thus far, Jones is our greatest need for sure, but seeing Mackinnon on a regular basis in Halifax makes it very hard for me to choose otherwise. He is SO good.

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02-04-2013, 12:23 PM
  #289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
I don't know seems that Drouin is giving MacKinnon a run for his money
I don't even this it will be a discussion who the top 2 picks will be come draft day, for Buffalo I would in all likely hood prefer Barkov or Lindholm over him.

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02-04-2013, 12:29 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
I don't even this it will be a discussion who the top 2 picks will be come draft day, for Buffalo I would in all likely hood prefer Barkov or Lindholm over him.
Me too, I've had enough of the small shifty forwards here in Buffalo. I love his puck skills but we have enough small forwards.

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02-04-2013, 12:30 PM
  #291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
is that true?

CBA nerds, report!
It's probably just an assumption since this is the only Entry Draft lottery change in the summary:
Quote:
Entry Draft
All Non-Playoff Clubs will participate in a weighted drawing. The Clubs shall be ranked in inverse order based on points earned by each of them in the previous Regular Season. The winner of the weighted drawing will receive the first pick in the first round of the Draft.

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02-04-2013, 12:34 PM
  #292
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Jones, right now he is the best player available and our center situation looks decent for the future, even though right now it's not very good. Only reason I'd take MacKinnon is because d-men can be tougher to evaluate and usually take longer to develop, but Jones looks like a different breed...I don't see him busting.

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02-04-2013, 01:24 PM
  #293
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
In 2012... the odds were
25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
6.2% - Anaheim Ducks - 80 points
4.7% - Minnesota Wild - 81 points
3.6% - Carolina Hurricanes - 82 points
2.7% - Winnipeg Jets - 84 points
2.1% - Tampa Bay Lightning - 84 points
1.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 88 points
1.1% - Buffalo Sabres - 89 points
0.8% - Dallas Stars - 89 points
0.5% - Calgary Flames - 90 points
If these remain the same for next year, then our odds for various positions is as follows:

Finish 30th: 1st pick = 25.0%; 2nd pick = 75%
Finish 29th: 1st pick = 18.8%; 2nd pick = 25.0%; 3rd pick = 56.2%
Finish 28th: 1st pick = 14.2%; 3rd pick = 43.8%; 4th pick = 42.0%
Finish 27th: 1st pick = 10.7%; 4th pick = 58.0%; 5th pick = 31.3%

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02-04-2013, 03:01 PM
  #294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
It's probably just an assumption since this is the only Entry Draft lottery change in the summary:
Don't make assumptions that you are likely wrong about!


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02-04-2013, 03:29 PM
  #295
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
Jame, and math, is correct.

It's a good change IMO. It also increases the odds that you'll lose a draft position, but the tradeoff for anyone to get that first overall make that ok IMO.
Personally, I think it sucks. The purpose of the draft was to put teams with a lack of talent/depth into a draft order that would allow the worst team (as evidenced by their record) the "best" (as deemed by the selector) player available in the draft as a method of improving that lacking roster the most. Heck, since the lottery went into effect, only four times has the worst team "won" the selection -- shockingly the same percentage as their chances under the old system since 1995.

Wait for another Ovechkin or Crosby type player and the worst team getting hosed out of that opportunity. I can't wait for someone like the Pens to just miss the playoffs and win the draft lottery.

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02-04-2013, 03:33 PM
  #296
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
Personally, I think it sucks. The purpose of the draft was to put teams with a lack of talent/depth into a draft order that would allow the worst team (as evidenced by their record) the "best" (as deemed by the selector) player available in the draft as a method of improving that lacking roster the most. Heck, since the lottery went into effect, only four times has the worst team "won" the selection -- shockingly the same percentage as their chances under the old system since 1995.

Wait for another Ovechkin or Crosby type player and the worst team getting hosed out of that opportunity. I can't wait for someone like the Pens to just miss the playoffs and win the draft lottery.
You could make an argument that with the parity in the league, a 9th place team may not be much better than the team that finishes 15th.

Example, us placing 9th last year and Montreal finishing 15th.

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02-04-2013, 03:37 PM
  #297
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Originally Posted by Fire Lindy View Post
You could make an argument that with the parity in the league, a 9th place team may not be much better than the team that finishes 15th.

Example, us placing 9th last year and Montreal finishing 15th.
Yet the likelihood that #14 is significantly better than #1 isn't all that hard to imagine.

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02-04-2013, 07:20 PM
  #298
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Originally Posted by Awwufelloff View Post
Mackinnon. Our defensive prospect pool is strong enough right now. Makinnon, Grigorenko, Girgensons sets us up down the middle for years to come. Similar to what Pittsburgh has albeit not quite the talent level. Crosby/Malkin/Suter
Where is Hodgson?

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Old
02-06-2013, 08:33 AM
  #299
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Scouts are now saying this is not a deep draft

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02-06-2013, 09:53 AM
  #300
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
Scouts are now saying this is not a deep draft
It seems like this happens every year...

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