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Old
02-04-2013, 02:49 PM
  #301
Vankiller Whale
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Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
While Luongo is definitely on fire right now, Schenider is definitely floundering, unless you consider a 3.13 GAA and .897 SV% par for the course with him?
Outside of his first game he has a .935 sv%. So he fluffed his first game and has been a rock since. The reason he's not playing now os because Luongo has a .944 sv%, .96something or other discounting the first game.

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02-04-2013, 02:56 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
While Luongo is definitely on fire right now, Schenider is definitely floundering, unless you consider a 3.13 GAA and .897 SV% par for the course with him?
aside from the first game, he has very good numbers and has played extremely well, it's only because Luongo is doing exceptionally well right now that he is getting so many consecutive starts. The Canucks did say they would ride the "hot goalie" and one that has something like a .940 + SV % definitely fits the bill.

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02-04-2013, 03:45 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
While Luongo is definitely on fire right now, Schenider is definitely floundering, unless you consider a 3.13 GAA and .897 SV% par for the course with him?
Take out game 1.

.937 save %

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Old
02-04-2013, 04:02 PM
  #304
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I love both our Goalies.. I want to keep them Both! The reality in a Salary Cap World is we can't.... I love both goalies personalities and both of their skill sets.

I believe if we Trade Schneider we will get a great return because theirs no way Gillis trades him without a great return.

As long as we don't trade with Toronto im happy.

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Old
02-04-2013, 04:37 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by NonBruinHatingCanuck View Post
I love both our Goalies.. I want to keep them Both! The reality in a Salary Cap World is we can't.... I love both goalies personalities and both of their skill sets.

I believe if we Trade Schneider we will get a great return because theirs no way Gillis trades him without a great return.


As long as we don't trade with Toronto im happy.
I agree with the bolded parts. Regarding the un-bolded parts I wouldn't mind a trade with toronta as they have some good young guns that could come back in a trade... Whether that be Luongo or Schneider that would be traded I'm really not too sure at this point. And someone even flirted the idea that keeping both could be a possibility until the offseason. Something worth considering...

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02-04-2013, 04:40 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
...then trade Luongo if there are no worries with having Schneider start right away.
That's all you've got?!

Luongo IS going to be traded.

You do realize I have no control over when, right?

Patience is a virtue. Just because you (and other "fans") don't have any doesn't mean there is no market or tonnes of pressure to get it done now.

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02-04-2013, 04:44 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
Link?

There were rumours that Colorado might want to trade their 11th pick for a potential starting goalie, and Schneider was a target. I've never seen anything that shows that a straight 1 for 1 deal was offered.

Edit: Also the 11th overall pick in 2011 was pretty weak. The current 11th overall is worth considreably more.
It was the 11th in 2012 (Forsberg).

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02-04-2013, 04:49 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
It was the 11th in 2012 (Forsberg).
No, it wasn't. I put the link on the previous page.

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02-04-2013, 05:36 PM
  #309
ginner classic
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
No, it wasn't. I put the link on the previous page.
It WAS a 2012 draft pick:

7/01/2011Washington Capitals traded Semyon Varlamov to the Colorado Avalanche for a 1st round selection in 2012 and a conditional 2nd round selection.

http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/...layer.php?5536

You can also see that in 2011 Colorado actually drafted the 11th pick whereas in 2012 Washington did:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2011e.html

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2012e.html

How much more evidence do I need that Varlomov netted the 2012 11th overall?

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02-04-2013, 05:49 PM
  #310
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Outside of his first game he has a .935 sv%. So he fluffed his first game and has been a rock since. The reason he's not playing now os because Luongo has a .944 sv%, .96something or other discounting the first game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Take out game 1.

.937 save %
Quote:
Originally Posted by live playoff hockey View Post
aside from the first game, he has very good numbers and has played extremely well, it's only because Luongo is doing exceptionally well right now that he is getting so many consecutive starts. The Canucks did say they would ride the "hot goalie" and one that has something like a .940 + SV % definitely fits the bill.
Just wondering (since I am too lazy to do the math), but if we are excluding his really bad game, what are his stats like if you exclude his really good game too (his shut out)?

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02-04-2013, 05:57 PM
  #311
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Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
Just wondering (since I am too lazy to do the math), but if we are excluding his really bad game, what are his stats like if you exclude his really good game too (his shut out)?
It's best to just be realistic and say that every goalie can have anomolies where for short periods of time their SV% deviated from their long term average. No point removing high or low games. Include them all and look at the past 30, 50, or 100. Anything else is noise.

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Old
02-04-2013, 06:18 PM
  #312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
Just wondering (since I am too lazy to do the math), but if we are excluding his really bad game, what are his stats like if you exclude his really good game too (his shut out)?
A 2 game sample where he goes .900?

I think when you ignore the 1 blow out on opening night, it goes a lot closer to his .934 hes posted over the 58 games prior.

But I mean, feel free to take a 4 game sample with extreme outliers as a good measure of talent...

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Old
02-04-2013, 06:32 PM
  #313
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Take out game 1.

.937 save %
and thats including the SJ game where they had a few gimmie goals given to SJ by Van dmen too

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Old
02-04-2013, 09:25 PM
  #314
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
It's best to just be realistic and say that every goalie can have anomolies where for short periods of time their SV% deviated from their long term average. No point removing high or low games. Include them all and look at the past 30, 50, or 100. Anything else is noise.
I did some statistical calculations for fun on a sample of Schneider's save percentage, taking the last 15 games he has played, including this season and last season's playoffs and regular season. I weighted the save percentage by minutes played, so games where he was chased or where he came in as relief have a lower importance.

Over that period he has an average SV% of .937672941 with a Standard Deviation of .066452734. Using the Z-score criterion (which I can post the full calculation of if people want), we can see that his game against the Ducks this season was a statistical outlier (it had a Z-score of -4.43, which is significantly beyond the required threshold of z>|3|) and it's appropriate to throw it out.

Once we throw out that outlier we see Schneider has a average SV% of .94745.

A few caveats- this is not a random sample, also my stats skills are a bit rusty so if anyone knows more about stats then please correct me.


Last edited by ukapu: 02-04-2013 at 09:52 PM. Reason: phrasing
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Old
02-04-2013, 09:32 PM
  #315
CpatainCanuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukapu View Post
I did some statistical calculations on a sample of Schneider's save percentage, taking the last 15 games he has played, including this season and last season's playoffs and regular season. I weighted the save percentage by minutes played, so games where he was chased or where he came in as relief have a lower importance.

Over that period he has an average SV% of .937672941 with a Standard Deviation of .066452734 (which is super low). Using the Z-score criterion (which I can post the full calculation of if people want), we can see that his game against the Ducks this season was a statistical outlier (it had a Z-score of -4.43, which is significantly beyond the required threshold of z>|3|) and it is thus appropriate to throw it out.

Once we throw out that outlier we see Schneider has a average SV% of .94745.

A few caveats- this is not a random sample, also my stats skills are a bit rusty so if anyone knows more about stats then please correct me.
What? Come on man. It makes sense to disregard game one of this season as neither the canucks or Schneider were up to speed. Giving less weight to games last season when Schneider was pulled is dishonest.

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Old
02-04-2013, 09:51 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by CpatainCanuck View Post
What? Come on man. It makes sense to disregard game one of this season as neither the canucks or Schneider were up to speed. Giving less weight to games last season when Schneider was pulled is dishonest.
This also gives less weight to games where he comes in as relief and pitches a shutout. It just doesn't make sense to not weight the values per minutes played. Unless you're saying that 1 minute of a shutout is worth the same as a full game shutout? And we're not disregarding game one because of they 'weren't up to speed'. We're discarding it because it's a serious outlier.

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