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*ALL* Luongo Talk (News/Speculation/Rumors/Proposals)

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Old
02-04-2013, 05:42 PM
  #601
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Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
Ugh had a long post typed out and lost it. /facesmash

II lets try to make it simple.

Lets say Lu is a top ten goalie that eliminated about a third of the teams right off the top. No team with another top ten goalie is going to give up valubable assets for a marginal upgrade on net.

Then we have the young building teams. To me this would be Oilers etc most of the lottery teams and top ten draft teams from last year. Again you lose another third of the league or so.

This leaves a small portion of the league that is both close enough to contend and needs a goalie. this fits this? Chicago,maybe Washington, and then end a couple tweeners like Florida and Toronto. There isn't a big market out there, there is a reason why its the small handful of teams bring discussed ad nauseum. Its common sense and not hard to figure out.



OK, so you have 4 teams there.



First, Spector, writer for the EDM oilers, reported interest by EDM. Then, Botchford confirmed that interest twice. Mckenzie also mentioned it. The fact that _Gillis_ is reticent to send Luongo there does not discount them entirely as a destination. Stranger things have happened.



Next, PHI was reported by Duthie, Dater, Spector and one other to have interest in Luongo. Whether they do something now, or in the offseason, remains to be seen.



After that, there's still and always has been CLB. Dreger reported their interest as far back as the draft. Again, this is another team that people have discounted because Luongo will not outright waive for them. However, JDavidson just got hired there and has given them instant credibility. Maybe players won't outright dismiss them anymore.



Lastly, there have been a number of teams to have been speculated to have outside interest. They include DET (), WPG (Pavelec), TBay (all on Lindback), SJ (a good amount at one point), PHX (if Smith leaves), NJ (post-Brodeur) and NYI (believe it or not). These remain teams with outside interest dependent on other things shaking out like re-alignment, no being able to re-sign their goalies, wanting replacements and so on...



Bottom line, you have 3 teams in addition to the 4 you mentioned as having reported interest. Then you have the other teams on the outside. Is 7 teams out of 30 a small market? If so, what was Nash's market? 6 teams? Technically, you only need one, but it helps to have two so you can play up the value. However, if 7 teams have been tied to rumours/needs, then I would say that's pretty healthy comparatively. Wouldn't you? Now I'm sure these reporters went through their common-sense-spectrometer before dishing reports of interest involving these teams. Maybe they don't have common sense then?

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02-04-2013, 05:42 PM
  #602
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Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
Never said where in the top ten he slotted in. Point is if you have a top ten why would you give up assets for another top ten goalie?,
I agree that you can eliminate the other teams with top 10 goalies. I'd probably go even further and maybe up to the top 15. But I don't agree that the bottom 10 teams wouldn't be interested. In today's NHL teams can turn their fortunes around in a season or two. If they have top notch goaltending. To be clear, I don't think that there will be many teams interested in paying a significant price for Luongo but all Gillis really needs is two to get a fair deal. His best bet, IMO, is to be patient and wait for the inevitable goalie struggles.

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02-04-2013, 05:44 PM
  #603
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
In order to maximize his own return.

Exactly. Hard pill to swallow, but you only do it if the return is worth it.


Edit: Also, not all top10~ goalies are created equal. There are only about 5 other goalies on the level of Luongo. I think the list was Price, Quick, Lundqvist, Rinne, maybe Miller (though I don't agree). The next level of goaltender is a step below. I think someone made an argument on this per the stats, but damned if I remember where it was.

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02-04-2013, 05:44 PM
  #604
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This isn't the case though. Luongo is a top 3 goalie right now. By "right now", I mean this season so far, aswell as recent seasons (nominated for Vezina in 2011, means he's top 3). So the rest of your post isn't that persuasive.
What teams would be interested? Let's first look at what teams are not likely interested:

Anaheim - Hiller
Boston - Rask
Buffalo - Miller
Carolina - Ward
Calgary - Kiprusoff
Colorado - Varlamov
Dallas - Lehtonen
Detroit - Howard, Mrazek coming
LA - Quick, Bernier
Minnesota - Backstrom, Harding, Hackett and Kuemper coming
Montreal - Price
Nashville - Rinne
NJ - Brodeur
NYR - Lundqvist
Ott - Anderson, Lehner
Phi - Bryzgalov
Phx - Smith
Pit - Fleury
SJ - Niemi, Greiss
St. Louis - Halak, Elliott
TB - Lindback
Win - Pavelec

IMO the above 22 teams are all comfortable enough in goal that the assets (both trade and financial) to acquire Luongo are better spent upgrading areas of bigger weakness than pursuing a marginal (in most cases) upgrade in net. I'd be shocked if any of these are in on him.

The following 4 teams may have a need, but for various reasons don't strike me as being great candidates:

Was - GMGM has come and out said the contract is prohibitive.
Columbus - Just acquired Bobrovsky, and Luongo's contract just doesn't fit Davidson's MO.
Florida - Aren't going to compete this year, and have Markstrom waiting in the wings.
NYI - Have Nabokov now, Poulin/Nilsson/Koskinen waiting, and saw the DiPietro deal blow up.

IMO that leaves three teams as likely suitors, and even then Chicago has Crawford and cap issues.

Chicago
Edmonton
Tor

Luongo is fantastic, but you have to figure that teams wouldn't be lining up to give him 9/5.333 cap hit as a 34-year old free agent this offseason. Even less so to give up assets for the privilege of locking him in at that rate.

Not only will teams have to see him as more than a marginal upgrade to bite, they'll also have to figure that they can't get a bigger upgrade at another position for 9/5.333 + trade chips it would take to land him.

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02-04-2013, 05:46 PM
  #605
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In order to maximize his own return.
Isn't that kind of like the USA selling arms to Iran though?

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02-04-2013, 05:51 PM
  #606
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Isn't that kind of like the USA selling arms to Iran though?
Maybe Gillis is angling for a spot on Foxnews?

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02-04-2013, 06:00 PM
  #607
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
OK, so you have 4 teams there.




First, Spector, writer for the EDM oilers, reported interest by EDM. Then, Botchford confirmed that interest twice. Mckenzie also mentioned it. The fact that _Gillis_ is reticent to send Luongo there does not discount them entirely as a destination. Stranger things have happened.



Next, PHI was reported by Duthie, Dater, Spector and one other to have interest in Luongo. Whether they do something now, or in the offseason, remains to be seen.



After that, there's still and always has been CLB. Dreger reported their interest as far back as the draft. Again, this is another team that people have discounted because Luongo will not outright waive for them. However, JDavidson just got hired there and has given them instant credibility. Maybe players won't outright dismiss them anymore.



Lastly, there have been a number of teams to have been speculated to have outside interest. They include DET (), WPG (Pavelec), TBay (all on Lindback), SJ (a good amount at one point), PHX (if Smith leaves), NJ (post-Brodeur) and NYI (believe it or not). These remain teams with outside interest dependent on other things shaking out like re-alignment, no being able to re-sign their goalies, wanting replacements and so on...



Bottom line, you have 3 teams in addition to the 4 you mentioned as having reported interest. Then you have the other teams on the outside. Is 7 teams out of 30 a small market? If so, what was Nash's market? 6 teams? Technically, you only need one, but it helps to have two so you can play up the value. However, if 7 teams have been tied to rumours/needs, then I would say that's pretty healthy comparatively. Wouldn't you? Now I'm sure these reporters went through their common-sense-spectrometer before dishing reports of interest involving these teams. Maybe they don't have common sense then?

Again we are back to speculation. All those teams you mention are highly speculative, especially Detroit for one that just doesn't male sense for a few reasons.

The point we started at and are back to is what's the problem with speculating on markets?

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02-04-2013, 06:08 PM
  #608
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Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
Again we are back to speculation. All those teams you mention are highly speculative, especially Detroit for one that just doesn't male sense for a few reasons.

The point we started at and are back to is what's the problem with speculating on markets?


Because there was no context to your speculation. What was the average market for it to now be shrinking? Did you see posters disagree with you?



So I'll ask again, if the market is 7 teams, to your 4, what is the market? How many teams are in on any one player at any one time? Nash's "market" was dictated by his NTC which turned out to be about 4 teams. About the same as what you are saying is the market for Luongo. So was that market big/small/growing/shrinking?

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02-04-2013, 06:09 PM
  #609
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
If TOR was reticent to deal youth prior to the season starting, I'm unsure they would be in the offseason. Especially if TOR misses the playoffs and draft high again. There's no pressure on them to compete right away.


In the offseason, all bets are off. Team rosters will be in flux and some others, like PHI, may come into the mix. Too many variables to contemplate it with any sense of reason.
Not saying it is a lock, but it kind of makes more sense for a Luongo/Kadri deal to go down at the end of this year, whereas if it were to go down tomorrow, it doesn't really benefit Vancouver to make a move for a young NHL player now or to go for picks/prospects (until the offseason)

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02-04-2013, 06:10 PM
  #610
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Imagine if he posted 16 shutouts en route to a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe. Think of all the draft picks we'd get for him then!

Luongo could say go 16-12 giving up only 12 goals (every game 1-0) and it would still be said we were lucky cause he almost cost us each series losing us 3 games. Heck he could go 16-0 and Luongo haters will still Hate it is much like the Sedin haters (which I am a card carrying member) who look at the 2011 play-off run and say take out the SJ series and they were largely ineffective.

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02-04-2013, 06:12 PM
  #611
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Not saying it is a lock, but it kind of makes more sense for a Luongo/Kadri deal to go down at the end of this year, whereas if it were to go down tomorrow, it doesn't really benefit Vancouver to make a move for a young NHL player now or to go for picks/prospects (until the offseason)

I get your point and despite everything being good in TOR right now, It's not outside the realm of possibility that they re-enter talks with VAN at the end of the season, depending on what happens. I guess we'll see.


In the meantime, I'm just glad VAN gets to benefit from excellent goaltending, regardless of Lu or Schneider being in the net.

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02-04-2013, 06:21 PM
  #612
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Because there was no context to your speculation. What was the average market for it to now be shrinking? Did you see posters disagree with you?



So I'll ask again, if the market is 7 teams, to your 4, what is the market? How many teams are in on any one player at any one time? Nash's "market" was dictated by his NTC which turned out to be about 4 teams. About the same as what you are saying is the market for Luongo. So was that market big/small/growing/shrinking?
We don't know what the size of the market is if we did we wouldn't speculating. It could be 4 or 7 the answer is irrelevant to the point. Whether it is 4 or 7 or 29 we are still speculating. Seems like you are more interested in arguing semantics than hockey...
But again I would just be speculating as I don't know you.

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02-04-2013, 06:38 PM
  #613
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Per @TSNBobMcKenzie: Yale frwd Antoine Laganiere is the player Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman were scouting over wknd. http://******/hpVdq

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02-04-2013, 06:38 PM
  #614
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Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
We don't know what the size of the market is if we did we wouldn't speculating. It could be 4 or 7 the answer is irrelevant to the point. Whether it is 4 or 7 or 29 we are still speculating. Seems like you are more interested in arguing semantics than hockey...
But again I would just be speculating as I don't know you.



So if you didn't know the initial state of the market, how could you determine the market was shrinking? (based on your earlier post)


4 or 7 is relevant to the point: For you to determine if a market is growing, staying the same, or shrinking, you would have to know the initial state of the market. At least your best guess speculation. So per that speculation, which team dropped out for you to come to the conclusion that the market was shrinking?



If this is not about determining how the market shrank, why make this statement:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
Maybe Chicago and Florida...the market is a shrinkin'..

That's not semantics, that's trying to figure out what new information you know that made you come to the conclusion you had. So what was it?

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02-04-2013, 06:41 PM
  #615
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Washington is the suitor, they are about to make a very big offer. Most fans wont like it, if it happens however.

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02-04-2013, 06:44 PM
  #616
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Per @TSNBobMcKenzie: Yale frwd Antoine Laganiere is the player Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman were scouting over wknd. http://******/hpVdq
LOL so MG and Gilman really were just trolling at the Caps game? Hmmmm. I still doesn't see why they'd want to miss the hawks/nucks game for a college player. Doesn't sit right with me.

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02-04-2013, 06:44 PM
  #617
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So if you didn't know the initial state of the market, how could you determine the market was shrinking? (based on your earlier post)


4 or 7 is relevant to the point: For you to determine if a market is growing, staying the same, or shrinking, you would have to know the initial state of the market. At least your best guess speculation. So per that speculation, which team dropped out for you to come to the conclusion that the market was shrinking?



If this is not about determining how the market shrank, why make this statement:





That's not semantics, that's trying to figure out what new information you know that made you come to the conclusion you had. So what was it?
Everything that has been talked about for the last year + the comments of McPhee and gillis. I would of thought that painfully obvious. Again you are the only one that didn't get my point.

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02-04-2013, 06:47 PM
  #618
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Per @TSNBobMcKenzie: Yale frwd Antoine Laganiere is the player Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman were scouting over wknd. http://******/hpVdq
How close is yale to Washington?

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02-04-2013, 06:56 PM
  #619
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Everything that has been talked about for the last year + the comments of McPhee and gillis. I would of thought that painfully obvious. Again you are the only one that didn't get my point.


I guess arsmaster and Co Ho didn't get your points either?


Are we not also privy to the information that has been discussed over 7 months? Not privy to McPhee's comments? Yet other hockey media and fans speculated WSH as a suitor that fits. Maybe they're all wrong? If it was painfully obvious, why do others see it differently than you do?


Is the market shrinking comment based on WSH being eliminated as a possibility? If so, why in your post did you say "maybe Washington" as a potential suitor?

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02-04-2013, 06:59 PM
  #620
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How close is yale to Washington?

About 5 hours by driving. So it's possible they just caught the game because they were close by.

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02-04-2013, 07:03 PM
  #621
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I guess arsmaster and Co Ho didn't get your points either?


Are we not also privy to the information that has been discussed over 7 months? Not privy to McPhee's comments? Yet other hockey media and fans speculated WSH as a suitor that fits. Maybe they're all wrong? If it was painfully obvious, why do others see it differently than you do?


Is the market shrinking comment based on WSH being eliminated as a possibility? If so, why in your post did you say "maybe Washington" as a potential suitor?
I said maybe Chicago and Florida. Again if someone comments on something shrinking directly aftet something is perceived to have been eliminated I stand by it being painfully obvious.

Furthermore where is it written and since when is it expected for a comment to either be prefaced with the history of the subject or the addition of new information?

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02-04-2013, 07:04 PM
  #622
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Washington is the suitor, they are about to make a very big offer. Most fans wont like it, if it happens however.
If neither Caps goalie steps up this week and both continue to give up soft goals, along with Brooks Laich coming back from a groin injury, then something will happen. McPhee is one of the trickiest poker players when it comes to all NHL GM's. He is also one of the biggest liars. Caps are struggling and Vancouver needs closure on the Luongo saga, so neither has an advantage in trade negotiations. To me there are only 3 teams, Caps, Panthers and Leafs, who can do a Luongo deal up to the trade deadline. Caps are the front runner, because Leafs are holding steady and the Panthers are winning again to get close to .500.

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02-04-2013, 07:09 PM
  #623
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Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
I said maybe Chicago and Florida. Again if someone comments on something shrinking directly aftet something is perceived to have been eliminated I stand by it being painfully obvious.

Furthermore where is it written and since when is it expected for a comment to either be prefaced with the history of the subject or the addition of new information?


What was perceived to have been eliminated?


Usually, when a new realization is put forth, new information runs alongside to support it. Other than that, the comment seems flippant. And as you know on here, a flippant comment (which yours represented) usually garners a flippant response (which was represented by myself). Did you expect more from a seemingly trite statement?


On the other point, you said this:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Syckle78 View Post
Ugh had a long post typed out and lost it. /facesmash

II lets try to make it simple.

Lets say Lu is a top ten goalie that eliminated about a third of the teams right off the top. No team with another top ten goalie is going to give up valubable assets for a marginal upgrade on net.

Then we have the young building teams. To me this would be Oilers etc most of the lottery teams and top ten draft teams from last year. Again you lose another third of the league or so.

This leaves a small portion of the league that is both close enough to contend and needs a goalie. this fits this? Chicago,maybe Washington, and then end a couple tweeners like Florida and Toronto. There isn't a big market out there, there is a reason why its the small handful of teams bring discussed ad nauseum. Its common sense and not hard to figure out.


So who of the 4 teams has dropped out, based on recent goings on, that has you saying the market is shrinking and that it was based on common sense? A sense that 2 posters other than myself have already disagreed with you about?

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02-04-2013, 07:26 PM
  #624
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About 5 hours by driving. So it's possible they just caught the game because they were close by.
Bobby Mac said they took a train. Had a choice between that game or Devils-Isles and went with the Caps-Pens.

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02-04-2013, 07:28 PM
  #625
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Bobby Mac said they took a train. Had a choice between that game or Devils-Isles and went with the Caps-Pens.
So why are they going to the florida winnipeg game ???

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