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The Markov Conundrum

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Old
02-04-2013, 09:41 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Flukey combination of circumstances that in hindsight worked out very well. San Josť was DESPERATE for a RH defenceman and preferred Rivet over Souray, just to show you their state of mind.

Rivet was NOT in the Habs plans, he was already a healthy scratch twice.

Rivet's best was NEVER as good as Markov's average days.

Rivet was gong to be a UFA in a few weeks, and the team was not going to re-sign him.

Markov has almost two years left on his contract and will likely re-sign again.

Now, on top of that, San Jose had no idea Gorges would turn out as he did, say hi to Aaron Palushaj. And of course Max Pacioretty turned out to be WAY better than the 22nd player of his draft year. No guarantee of that always happening, not be a long-shot.
That's how trades work, that's how we got stuck with Kaberle. Point is, these kind of trades do happen. Not every GM is an expert, and some GM's have more pressure on them than others for various reasons. Therefore the example remains valid example of what can happen, not saying every trade works out that well. Playoff pushes will do mad things to the mindset of people

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02-04-2013, 09:41 PM
  #152
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This is the point that the people opposed to considering moving Markov in this thread are continually missing. Thank you for pointing this out yet again, maybe people will understand this now that it's bolded and underlined.
Maybe because the people who want to keep Markov don't know what "great return" means in the eyes of those who continuously seem to want to move him.

I think we could solve this by asking if people would re-do the Rivet trade with Markov.

Given the situation of the Habs today, and assuming MArkov is still playing well at the 2013 deadline, and the Habs are in the Top1-8 of our Conference, who here would pull the trigger on a return for Andrei Markov of: a contender teams 6th-7th defenceman and a late first round pick?

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02-04-2013, 09:47 PM
  #153
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Maybe because the people who want to keep Markov don't know what "great return" means in the eyes of those who continuously seem to want to move him.

I think we could solve this by asking if people would re-do the Rivet trade with Markov.

Given the situation of the Habs today, and assuming MArkov is still playing well at the 2013 deadline, and the Habs are in the Top1-8 of our Conference, who here would pull the trigger on a return for Andrei Markov of: a contender teams 6th-7th defenceman and a late first round pick?
Having to answer this today - the answer is NO
today we sit at 6-2
what seed did the kings get into the playoffs at last year?
This year's version of the team has looked good, Markov has been a significant cog in the machine, and we move him as we move into the playoffs? yeah NO!!

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02-04-2013, 09:51 PM
  #154
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Having to answer this today - the answer is NO
today we sit at 6-2
what seed did the kings get into the playoffs at last year?
This year's version of the team has looked good, Markov has been a significant cog in the machine, and we move him as we move into the playoffs? yeah NO!!
Please tell me you are not comparing our team to the Kings

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02-04-2013, 09:52 PM
  #155
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Nobody is suggesting we just show him the door and ditch him. But if the right offer came along and the circumstances are right, sure.
Fine, to a degree that can be said about anyone.

And I know you did not write the subject header, but it is partly what is getting people's backs up. There is no more Markov conundrum than Gorges conundrum or Emelin conundrum or......i hope you get my point.

Besides, the assumption in the OP was such that a trade would be virtually impossible, which is that Markov was still playing at this level. If he were still playing at this level, we would probably be a playoff team and not selling, barring a great hockey trade that gave IMMEDIATELY useful assets in return.

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02-04-2013, 09:54 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Flukey combination of circumstances that in hindsight worked out very well. San Josť was DESPERATE for a RH defenceman and preferred Rivet over Souray, just to show you their state of mind.

Rivet was NOT in the Habs plans, he was already a healthy scratch twice.

Rivet's best was NEVER as good as Markov's average days.

Rivet was gong to be a UFA in a few weeks, and the team was not going to re-sign him.

Markov has almost two years left on his contract and will likely re-sign again.

Now, on top of that, San Jose had no idea Gorges would turn out as he did, say hi to Aaron Palushaj. And of course Max Pacioretty turned out to be WAY better than the 22nd player of his draft year. No guarantee of that always happening, not be a long-shot.
Sure. It was a rip-off. Nobody is going to disagree man.
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That's how trades work, that's how we got stuck with Kaberle. Point is, these kind of trades do happen. Not every GM is an expert, and some GM's have more pressure on them than others for various reasons. Therefore the example remains valid example of what can happen, not saying every trade works out that well. Playoff pushes will do mad things to the mindset of people
Exactly. That's why it's smart to be open minded and see what's out there. Worst case scenario is you do nothing...
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Maybe because the people who want to keep Markov don't know what "great return" means in the eyes of those who continuously seem to want to move him. I think we could solve this by asking if people would re-do the Rivet trade with Markov.

Given the situation of the Habs today, and assuming MArkov is still playing well at the 2013 deadline, and the Habs are in the Top1-8 of our Conference, who here would pull the trigger on a return for Andrei Markov of: a contender teams 6th-7th defenceman and a late first round pick?
If we're fighting for 1st? No. I'd hang onto Markov esp if he's playing great and the team is hot.

If we're fighting for 8th? Maybe... depends on how well Markov is playing and what's happening with the club. Deep draft... yeah, I'd think about it. I'd also rely heavily on Timmins' views on that 6th blueliner and the draft. If Markov is playing amazing then I'd probably want more. If he's playing well but not great, I'm more open to it.

If its a situation where I KNEW it was Gorges and Max coming back I do it regardless.

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02-04-2013, 09:55 PM
  #157
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Please tell me you are not comparing our team to the Kings
Thye point being made was quite simply:
Once you make the playoffs anything can happen

Sorry, i forgot to include the roadmap

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02-04-2013, 09:58 PM
  #158
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Fine, to a degree that can be said about anyone.

And I know you did not write the subject header, but it is partly what is getting people's backs up. There is no more Markov conundrum than Gorges conundrum or Emelin conundrum or......i hope you get my point.
The title of the thread is poorly chosen. I get his point though.
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Besides, the assumption in the OP was such that a trade would be virtually impossible, which is that Markov was still playing at this level. If he were still playing at this level, we would probably be a playoff team and not selling, barring a great hockey trade that gave IMMEDIATELY useful assets in return.
We won't sell him anyway...
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Thye point being made was quite simply:
Once you make the playoffs anything can happen

Sorry, i forgot to include the roadmap
I've heard that argument before and it's extremely weak. Not all teams are created equal and not all have an equal chance to win. It's like arguing that you need to buy a ticket to win the lotto.

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02-04-2013, 10:01 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by disturbedraven View Post
Craig Rivet for Josh Gorges and Max Pacioretty says hello
rivet did not have the same impact on the habs that markov currently has.

compare players that have a similar impact. think: kovalchuk deal and so on... trading star players almost never turns out good for the team trading the star away. yes, i just called markov a star. if anyone wants to argue semantics, he's our star, arguably our best player overall and definitely our best defenseman.

my opinion on the subject is that while everybody is available for the right price, markov i think is already past his point of diminishing return in a trade. I.E., significantly more useful to us than other teams would be willing to pay for him. when you add his contribution on ice, his intangibles and his influence on the younger players, i think we'd have to be foolish to trade him for anything short of a steal which in the new NHL essentially mean untradable

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02-04-2013, 10:03 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
The title of the thread is poorly chosen. I get his point though.

We won't sell him anyway...

I've heard that argument before and it's extremely weak. Not all teams are created equal and not all have an equal chance to win. It's like arguing that you need to buy a ticket to win the lotto.
Lafleur's guy you should know better
Patrick Roy says Hi!!

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02-04-2013, 10:05 PM
  #161
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Lafleur's guy you should know better
Patrick Roy says Hi!!
Like I said... ripoff trades happen.

Can't believe we didn't even get a first rounder out of it.

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02-04-2013, 10:11 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by AntonCH View Post
Thye point being made was quite simply:
Once you make the playoffs anything can happen

Sorry, i forgot to include the roadmap
Is there a chance an 8th seed that wasn't as stacked as L.A can with the cup? yes
No one is denying that you always have a chance
The difference is there are years you just play to make the playoffs, and years where you actually push to make it to the finals. Big difference.

If we make the playoffs, even as a top 3 seed, do you see MB mortgaging the farm and trading away youth for a vet for a playoff run? All signs thus far have shown he won't do that just yet, like AA for the Blue Jays last season. But there are at least half a dozen of GM's that will

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02-04-2013, 10:12 PM
  #163
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If its a situation where I KNEW it was Gorges and Max coming back I do it regardless.
LOL

And would you trade Brendan Gallagher for a fifth round draft pick?

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02-04-2013, 10:14 PM
  #164
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LOL

And would you trade Brendan Gallagher for a fifth round draft pick?
?

Am I supposed to reply to this?

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02-04-2013, 10:24 PM
  #165
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Is there a chance an 8th seed that wasn't as stacked as L.A can with the cup? yes
No one is denying that you always have a chance
The difference is there are years you just play to make the playoffs, and years where you actually push to make it to the finals. Big difference.

If we make the playoffs, even as a top 3 seed, do you see MB mortgaging the farm and trading away youth for a vet for a playoff run? All signs thus far have shown he won't do that just yet, like AA for the Blue Jays last season. But there are at least half a dozen of GM's that will
The thing is not every rebuild has to be done the same way, or the same way for the entire time it takes to complete the rebuild.

The Habs are already either partly rebuilt or mostly rebuilt, depending on how high Subban and Galchenyuk can go. We have FOUR great young pieces when you include Price and Pacioretty.

Once you have four young studs like that in addition to further good young and youngish elements in Gallagher, Emelin, Eller, Diaz and White, then the 28-35 year old vets take on a different value. Now the Markov, Gorges, Plekanec, Gorges, Prust and Moen types become the glue of the team.

Of course the GM might still pull the trigger on a trade of an impending UFA like Bouillon, Armstrong or Budaj, but only if he thought they were not critical to success this year or that he did not want them back next year, which he identified as our year to make the Cup run.

Or he could entertain an offer for a guy like Bourque, if he went back to inconsistent efforts, and if he got something in return that he needed more.

But the glue vets are not likely to be moved at this point in our rebuild. In my opinion, of course.

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02-04-2013, 10:27 PM
  #166
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LOL

And would you trade Brendan Gallagher for a fifth round draft pick?
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?

Am I supposed to reply to this?
Trying to make the point to others here that not every draft pick works out as well as Pacioretty, and not every prospect works out as well as Gorges, and for BOTH to happen in the same trade was incredibly fortuitous. Gallagher is a similar overachiever. Hindsight is always so great!

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02-04-2013, 10:31 PM
  #167
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The thing is not every rebuild has to be done the same way, or the same way for the entire time it takes to complete the rebuild.

The Habs are already either partly rebuilt or mostly rebuilt, depending on how high Subban and Galchenyuk can go. We have FOUR great young pieces when you include Price and Pacioretty.

Once you have four young studs like that in addition to further good young and youngish elements in Gallagher, Emelin, Eller, Diaz and White, then the 28-35 year old vets take on a different value. Now the Markov, Gorges, Plekanec, Gorges, Prust and Moen types become the glue of the team.

Of course the GM might still pull the trigger on a trade of an impending UFA like Bouillon, Armstrong or Budaj, but only if he thought they were not critical to success this year or that he did not want them back next year, which he identified as our year to make the Cup run.

Or he could entertain an offer for a guy like Bourque, if he went back to inconsistent efforts, and if he got something in return that he needed more.

But the glue vets are not likely to be moved at this point in our rebuild. In my opinion, of course.
They won't be moved. Nobody would say otherwise.

And dude, you are absolutely right we have great young players at key positions and the rebuild might already be done. Galchenyuk playing so well already may have brought forward the window for winning to as soon as this year. Maybe we have rebuilt enough, that's entirely possible.

But it's seven or eight games in. In a normal season that's nothing... got to remember that clubs go cold all the time and right now we are fully healthy.

There's also something to be said about stacking the deck for the future. Too early to say if we've got the ingredients to a cup winner but it sure looks like a good group. Good enough to contend for the future probably. Add in another great prospect though? Man, how could we not be contenders?

Yeah, dealing Markov sets us back somewhat but the window for winning gets extended in the long run. It's really not that crazy an idea man.
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Trying to make the point to others here that not every draft pick works out as well as Pacioretty, and not every prospect works out as well as Gorges, and for BOTH to happen in the same trade was incredibly fortuitous. Gallagher is a similar overachiever. Hindsight is always so great!
Sure, but we are here now talking without the benefit of hindsight. And we did this years ago when you laughed when somebody mentioned Giroux for Markov. Well, how would that trade have looked now?

There is risk, nobody doubts this. But if its a calculated risk you go for it. You're talking like we're contenders already and that may not be the case. If it is... hey, you don't have to convince me that we shouldn't deal him. But if it's another 8th place struggle? If it looks like we aren't going to contend next year? Sure we should be open to it.

It's more than just Markov that we have to look at man. It's the window for winning and the window of his effectiveness. It doesn't matter if the return doesn't equal Markov so long as it's a good piece of the puzzle that helps you win for years down the road. Its a trade off of the present for the future. Nothing crazy about that man.

If we get it wrong (entirely possible) it's not the end of the world. We'd be dealing away a player in his mid 30s, not somebody like McD or Subban.


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02-04-2013, 10:40 PM
  #168
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Trying to make the point to others here that not every draft pick works out as well as Pacioretty, and not every prospect works out as well as Gorges, and for BOTH to happen in the same trade was incredibly fortuitous. Gallagher is a similar overachiever. Hindsight is always so great!
Which is why the return for Markov (or Plekanec) has to be high to warrant a trade.

A blue chip prospect, and a first rounder, approximately.

What did you think of the Carter and*Richards trades? Pronger? Kessel? Beauchemin?

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02-04-2013, 11:06 PM
  #169
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If you're trading him, you have to accept the fact you're not going to be getting a player of his level in return and that you might wait another 10-15 years to get a defenceman that has as much of an impact on the team's record.

I would rather take the bet this team can become a contender in the next few years.

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02-04-2013, 11:09 PM
  #170
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If you're trading him, you have to accept the fact you're not going to be getting a player of his level in return and that you might wait another 10-15 years to get a defenceman that has as much of an impact on the team's record.

I would rather take the bet this team can become a contender in the next few years.
Good post. Welcome to the forums.

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02-05-2013, 09:24 AM
  #171
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Craig Rivet for Josh Gorges and Max Pacioretty says hello
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Originally Posted by Beendair Donedat View Post
Jarome Iginla?
Ok. That's two out of how many trades that have ended up badly for the seller exactly?

Iginla might have become the best player, bottom line is; the Stars won a cup barely one year after this trade. The Flames still have to put their hands on one. As for the Rivet trade, yeah, we can say it turned out very good. Though, for every trades that end up providing a Josh Gorges and a Max Pacioretty, there's many that are way uglier, such as that Ryan Smyth trade that gives you Nilsson/O'Marra and Alex Plante, or that Brad Richards trade that gets you Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen and a 4th round pick. You rarely ever end up with the best pieces. It's a gamble, no matter how you look at it.

Losing a piece like Markov without having the certainty that we're able to replace him would be suicide on our part. From within, we already know we can't replace Markov's impact on this team, not before we know what Beaulieu is really worth. As for the return he would fetch, the probability for it being less valuable for us than Markov is too high to even consider parting ways with him.

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02-05-2013, 10:00 AM
  #172
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Ok. That's two out of how many trades that have ended up badly for the seller exactly?
Well you asked for an example, I provided you one. Want another? Beauchemin for Lupul and Gardiner. I'd say the leafs got the best out of that since Anaheim was the buyer. Point is, these kinds of trades happen. No one is saying ditch Markov for nothing. The whole point of this thread is to open up the possibility of trading him IF the right deal comes along.

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02-05-2013, 10:03 AM
  #173
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Ok. That's two out of how many trades that have ended up badly for the seller exactly?

Iginla might have become the best player, bottom line is; the Stars won a cup barely one year after this trade. The Flames still have to put their hands on one. As for the Rivet trade, yeah, we can say it turned out very good. Though, for every trades that end up providing a Josh Gorges and a Max Pacioretty, there's many that are way uglier, such as that Ryan Smyth trade that gives you Nilsson/O'Marra and Alex Plante, or that Brad Richards trade that gets you Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen and a 4th round pick. You rarely ever end up with the best pieces. It's a gamble, no matter how you look at it.

Losing a piece like Markov without having the certainty that we're able to replace him would be suicide on our part. From within, we already know we can't replace Markov's impact on this team, not before we know what Beaulieu is really worth. As for the return he would fetch, the probability for it being less valuable for us than Markov is too high to even consider parting ways with him.
Agreed again. The risk is definitely high for the team trading the better player. Considering we have no one in the system with the same impact that Markov has, or any d-prospect with Elite potential, trading Markov for futures is not a good idea, especially when you add to this the fact that elite d-men are such an integral part to a successful team, probably imo, the most integral part.

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02-05-2013, 10:06 AM
  #174
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Ok. That's two out of how many trades that have ended up badly for the seller exactly?
Why does it have to be bad for the seller? The Flames dealt away uber prospect Brett Hull and won the cup. The Stars dealt Iginla and won the cup. Those are win/win type moves man.

And those kinds of moves happen all the time. Usually its on a smaller scale but so what? If you have the opportunity its worth considering. If Markov can put another team over the top and we can get a great prospect then I don't see how that can be seen as crazy.

What's crazy is letting guys like Koivu, Souray and a whole slew of others walk away for little to no return. Back then though, folks said we CAN'T trade those guys... well, we'd be further ahead now if we'd done it.

Again, it really comes down to the window of winning. If our window is open now, then it's harder to rationalize dealing the guy who is arbuably our best defenseman. If the window is really only opening in two or three years then it makes perfect sense to do it now.

So, let's see how this season plays out. Let's see if the club is for real and if it is then sure, go with what we've got. But if we're struggling or do our usual nosedive... then yeah we should definitely look around to see what we can get.

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02-05-2013, 10:11 AM
  #175
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There is a lot of CYA going on with the words 'if the right deal comes along'

People should expand on those words so all cards are on the table.

It has to be a good hockey trade to make Markov expendable . Montreal needs a sure thing on the return not a draft pick .

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