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02-05-2013, 10:32 AM
  #151
brs03
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Denis Potvin is the only defenseman taken #1 overall to win the Norris or reach the Hall of Fame. None of them have even become legit #1 defensemen since Ed Jovanovski in 1994.
What about at #2?

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02-05-2013, 10:35 AM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Denis Potvin is the only defenseman taken #1 overall to win the Norris or reach the Hall of Fame. None of them have even become legit #1 defensemen since Ed Jovanovski in 1994.
Ok obviously non defensemen can't win the Norris so for them what are we going to equate this to so we can compare?

And we are only talking about 9 defensemen who have been drafted 1st overall since Potvin in '73.


Last edited by Millhaus: 02-05-2013 at 10:43 AM. Reason: Research...
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02-05-2013, 10:44 AM
  #153
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Ok obviously non defensemen can't win the Norris so for them what are we going to equate this to so we can compare?
Look at the forwards taken recently.

2004: 2x Hart, 3x Lindsay, 1x Art Ross, 2x Rocket Richard, 5x 1st team all star
2005: 1x Hart, 1x Art Ross, 1x Rocket Richard, 1x Lindsay, 1x 1st team all star
2007: 1x 1st team all star
2008: 2x Rocket Richard, 2x 2nd team all star
2009-2012: No major accolades yet.

So, Patrick Kane is the worst of the bunch taken between 2004 and 2008.

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02-05-2013, 10:47 AM
  #154
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Given that scouting as a whole has improved between the 90s and today, that's a slanted look at it. You've got 1 relevant data point for Dmen (EJ) who's biggest issue was a development setback.

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02-05-2013, 10:49 AM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Denis Potvin is the only defenseman taken #1 overall to win the Norris or reach the Hall of Fame. None of them have even become legit #1 defensemen since Ed Jovanovski in 1994.
Right, because all players and prospects are the same...

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02-05-2013, 10:53 AM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Look at the forwards taken recently.

2004: 2x Hart, 3x Lindsay, 1x Art Ross, 2x Rocket Richard, 5x 1st team all star
2005: 1x Hart, 1x Art Ross, 1x Rocket Richard, 1x Lindsay, 1x 1st team all star
2007: 1x 1st team all star
2008: 2x Rocket Richard, 2x 2nd team all star
2009-2012: No major accolades yet.

So, Patrick Kane is the worst of the bunch taken between 2004 and 2008.
Well clearly Johnson can't compare with that...

So defensemen get 1st all star teams now plus the Norris' and HoF and everyone else gets everything else plus 1st all star teams and the HoF?

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02-05-2013, 10:58 AM
  #157
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
Given that scouting as a whole has improved between the 90s and today, that's a slanted look at it. You've got 1 relevant data point for Dmen (EJ) who's biggest issue was a development setback.
Going all the way back to Potvin in '73 we are only talking about 10 guys:

Potvin '73, Joly '74, Green '76, Ramage '79, Kluzak '82, Hamrlik '92, Jovanovski '94, Berard '95, Phillips '96, and Johnson '06.

Given that Berard and Kluzak had their careers ended very early because of injury that leaves 7 guys in almost 40 years after Potvin. The sample size is pretty small IMO.

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02-05-2013, 11:01 AM
  #158
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Originally Posted by sycamore View Post
You guys realize that by the time this pick comes into his own Ovechkin will be in his 30s? Man has McPhee screwed this thing up.
Making a draft pick is not about the current roster..unless the pick is traded for something other than a draft pick.

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02-05-2013, 11:29 AM
  #159
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
What about at #2?
Jones/Barkov in that order.

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02-05-2013, 12:09 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by Carlzner View Post
Right, because all players and prospects are the same...
Yes, in this sense they essentially are. Obviously each player is unique, but using that as a justification to ignore clear trends is foolish. I haven't seen Jones play, but I think it's safe to say his size provides him with some notable advantages. Size-advantaged junior players often hit a wall once half the league is as big as them. Moreover, everything I've read seems to indicate he's all tools and no toolbox. If the Capitals were the Red Wings, I'd say go for it, but toolboxes aren't standard issue in Washington.

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02-05-2013, 12:11 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Backstrom #19 View Post
I don't think Barkov and Lindholm are getting the recognition they deserve. What they are doing in professional leagues against men at their young age is pretty incredible. I'd have no problem taking one of them 1st overall.
I'm completely satisfied with Mackinnon and Jones being ranked at the very top of the class, but I definitely agree with you about the relative merit of Barkov and Lindholm. I'd lean Barkov if we were faced with having to choose between the two because I think a huge, skilled potential no.1 center is something we've needed for ages, but I have to admit that I've had a man-crush on Lindholm since the wjc. I think he's going to be a legitimate star in the NHL, and he's a rare blend of complete game with a touch of dynamism and grit.



So much awesome in that video.

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02-05-2013, 12:12 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Liberati0n View Post
Yes, in this sense they essentially are. Obviously each player is unique, but using that as a justification to ignore clear trends is foolish. I haven't seen Jones play, but I think it's safe to say his size provides him with some notable advantages. Size-advantaged junior players often hit a wall once half the league is as big as them. Moreover, everything I've read seems to indicate he's all tools and no toolbox. If the Capitals were the Red Wings, I'd say go for it, but toolboxes aren't standard issue in Washington.
All tools and no toolbox is something that was said about him when he first entered the WHL but he quickly lost that description from scouts... which is why so many of them have him ranked first overall right now.

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02-05-2013, 12:27 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by Carlzner View Post
All tools and no toolbox is something that was said about him when he first entered the WHL but he quickly lost that description from scouts... which is why so many of them have him ranked first overall right now.
It seems like it was the almost unanimous conclusion after the WJC, which is higher competition than the WHL.

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02-05-2013, 12:27 PM
  #164
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Sorry but...wut, about Jones not having a toolbox? He was A.Capt on the U18 squad as a 16 year old...you don't put the A on the sweater of a kid, for the NTDP, who has no toolbox...

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02-05-2013, 12:28 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by IkeaMonkey View Post
Sorry but...wut, about Jones not having a toolbox? He was A.Capt on the U18 squad as a 16 year old...you don't put the A on the sweater of a kid, for the NTDP, who has no toolbox...
He probably didn't need one to dominate there. His size is just one tool.

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02-05-2013, 12:31 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Liberati0n View Post
He probably didn't need one to dominate there. His size is just one tool.
This would all be a decent argument if the kid hasn't been playing against 20+ year olds who are "his size", in the NCAA, since he was 16...

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02-05-2013, 12:33 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by Liberati0n View Post
Yes, in this sense they essentially are. Obviously each player is unique, but using that as a justification to ignore clear trends is foolish. I haven't seen Jones play, but I think it's safe to say his size provides him with some notable advantages. Size-advantaged junior players often hit a wall once half the league is as big as them. Moreover, everything I've read seems to indicate he's all tools and no toolbox. If the Capitals were the Red Wings, I'd say go for it, but toolboxes aren't standard issue in Washington.
See, my biggest question about Jones is whether his decision making can get to NHL speed. He can easily hide deficiencies in that area in the WHL given his physical talent. He would get more hype in DC than any other prospect in the draft because of his background and I won't hesitate to think they would fast track his development to sell tickets. It's asking a lot to expect him just to develop properly on his own.

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02-05-2013, 12:38 PM
  #168
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Jones wouldn't be in the conversation for the top pick if no toolbox was accurate. Not this year. He does need to be more decisive and authoritative in his own end but I don't really doubt his hockey sense. His intensity may be in question at times (and that's another issue for this team). Unless they were to trade Carlson or something I don't think he would be over his head in the NHL next year. They would need to clear out PP time for him, though.

I think toolbox is a much more accurate issue with Nichushkin and why I think it's a particularly poor fit.

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02-05-2013, 12:39 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver View Post
See, my biggest question about Jones is whether his decision making can get to NHL speed. He can easily hide deficiencies in that area in the WHL given his physical talent. He would get more hype in DC than any other prospect in the draft because of his background and I won't hesitate to think they would fast track his development to sell tickets. It's asking a lot to expect him just to develop properly on his own.
His mobility for his height and frame is absolutely ridiculous and it should only get better assuming he adds more weight. That's always the biggest question mark on big guys and it's not only not a question, but an asset. I remember watching Chara play for Lowell back in the AHL like 15 years ago...man, that **** was ugly, it was like he was walking out there.

Jones brings the skating ability and the booming shot that should at least carve out a niche at the very worst in the NHL.

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02-05-2013, 12:44 PM
  #170
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Fair enough, you guys both obviously know more about him than I do. I still hope they end up with Barkov though.

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02-05-2013, 12:48 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by IkeaMonkey View Post
His mobility for his height and frame is absolutely ridiculous and it should only get better assuming he adds more weight. That's always the biggest question mark on big guys and it's not only not a question, but an asset. I remember watching Chara play for Lowell back in the AHL like 15 years ago...man, that **** was ugly, it was like he was walking out there.

Jones brings the skating ability and the booming shot that should at least carve out a niche at the very worst in the NHL.
But the question is going to be whether he has Chara's desire to work himself into an elite player.

Because I sure as hell don't trust the Caps to push him in that direction if he doesn't. Then you are still left with an Erik Johnson which is not terrible by any means but at the end of the day there were two legit #1 centers taken with the next few picks. That's how this draft is lining up.

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02-05-2013, 02:02 PM
  #172
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02-05-2013, 02:21 PM
  #173
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Defensemen undergo far more changes in development than forwards from their junior years onward. I'm far more comfortable projecting MacKinnon, Barkov, Monahan, Lindholm, etc. than Jones. I have a feeling that's why defensemen selected top 5 have generally been underwhelming compared to the forwards selected there.

Only thing that would sell me on defenseman taken in the top 5 is absolutely elite hockey sense (again, harder to glean in juniors when competition can be dominated without it) in addition to at the very least above average skating and no physical deficiencies, or if the rest of the forward class is obviously a notch below him in terms of abilities. I'd take Barkov and MacKinnon easily over Jones and give the rest top players some thoughts as well, though if we took him with those 2 off the table I wouldn't complain in the least.

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02-05-2013, 03:25 PM
  #174
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I guess you can say Jones is good, but look at the facts, there is a clear deficiency in the scouting of defensemen. The next big thing really hasn't come out of the top 10.

Top 10 picked NHL defensemen are Doughty, Pietrangelo, Phaneuf, and Suter. Then of course because Caps board, Alzner, who was picked after Hickey.

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02-05-2013, 03:34 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by Carlzner View Post
Right, because all players and prospects are the same...
Where on Earth did you get that from what I said? Are you trying to be intentionally obtuse?

History suggests that even the best recieved defensive pre-draft prospects have issues reaching their potential in the NHL. I'd take that as a pretty glaring red flag, and it's no different than other pieces of "common knowledge" that have been derived from observations (power forwards take longer to develop, young Swedes tend to struggle in the faceoff circle, etc).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Going all the way back to Potvin in '73 we are only talking about 10 guys:

Potvin '73, Joly '74, Green '76, Ramage '79, Kluzak '82, Hamrlik '92, Jovanovski '94, Berard '95, Phillips '96, and Johnson '06.

Given that Berard and Kluzak had their careers ended very early because of injury that leaves 7 guys in almost 40 years after Potvin. The sample size is pretty small IMO.
Doesn't the lack of defensemen taken 1st overall suggest something to you, as well?

I'll attempt to both expand the potential data set, and limit it to the more recent era of improved/increased scouting. Let's take a look at all defensemen taken in the top five between 2000-2009.

2000 #4 - Rotislav Klesla
2002 #3 - Jay Bouwmeester
2002 #4 - Joni Pitkanen
2002 #5 - Ryan Whitney
2004 #3 - Cam Barker
2005 #3 - Jack Johnson
2006 #1 - Erik Johnson
2006 #4 - Thomas Hickey
2006 #5 - Karl Alzner
2008 #2 - Drew Doughty
2008 #3 - Zach Bogosian
2008 #4 - Alex Pietrangelo
2008 #5 - Luke Schenn
2009 #2 - Victor Hedman

Once again, we see a continuation of the trend we saw with defensemen going #1 overall. Few outright "busts" (Hickey, arguably Barker), but very few legit stars emerging (Doughty, Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester). For the most part they end up as solid contributors in one way or another, but they don't reach the kind of status you'd want/expect from a top five selection.

To quantify it, let's measure by all-stars (game or end of season team). Three of the fourteen defensemen qualify (21.5%). Seventeen of the thirty-two forwards chosen qualify (53.1%). FWIW, three of the four goalies selected also qualify (Lehtonen being the lone exception), but Rick DiPietro has obviously gone downhill since then.

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