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Winnipeg Jets 2013 Lineup and Statistical Analysis (See Post 1 for reference)

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02-05-2013, 03:47 PM
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castle View Post
is this for 5v5 only? if so, then it would seem to be appropriate if starts and finishes are approximately 50/50 overall (probably pretty close). if a player is, on average, ending a higher percentage of shifts in the OZ than they've started, then they're doing something right.

The main issue is the division by 50 - OZS. The closer someone is to 50-50, the screwier the stat would get due to possiblity of a small denominator. or conversely, the farther someone is form 50-50. imagine someone at 51 OZS, and someone else at 52 OZS. Let's say they both finish 10 points better then they started (61 and 62). so you get 10/1 and 10/2. half the stat for something pretty identical. somebody else could start at 51 and finish at 56 and get the same as the guy at 52 and 62. or someone coudl start at 60 and go to 100 and still not appear as good as the guy at 51 - 61.

so this stat would still have its issues.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'remove the integer'.
there it is.

thats what i was looking for. I think the "right" way to do it is as i said in my last post, would be to apply diminishing returns on movement away from 50, but i don't have the math skills to do figure that out.


as for removing the integer i meant turning all negative numbers into a positive, as otherwise you'll get incorrectly "flipped" +/-

EDIT: also regarding 5v5, i did not due 5v5...orI may have...i'm not sure now. Nto overly important at this tage as it's more about the equation then the data, but yes- when doing it for realy you'd want to be using 5v5 only.

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02-05-2013, 04:01 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
there it is.

thats what i was looking for. I think the "right" way to do it is as i said in my last post, would be to apply diminishing returns on movement away from 50, but i don't have the math skills to do figure that out.


as for removing the integer i meant turning all negative numbers into a positive, as otherwise you'll get incorrectly "flipped" +/-

EDIT: also regarding 5v5, i did not due 5v5...orI may have...i'm not sure now. Nto overly important at this tage as it's more about the equation then the data, but yes- when doing it for realy you'd want to be using 5v5 only.
If it's behindthenet.ca and you're using the standard ones that come up then it should be 5v5 unless you request (in the drop down menu) otherwise.

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02-05-2013, 04:02 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
thats' sort of what it looked like, the whole 50 50 thing as a baseline.


either way, when i did the division it did give m numbers that made sense to me- the highest rated forwards on th jets thus far this year were: wellwood ladd little and kane, and the lowest were burmi, clitsome, redmond, and schiefele.

of those 8 names the only one that looked out of place to me was burmi.

EDIT post Truck: Would it be possible to factor in "diminshing returns" on deviation from the 50 baseline? My math isn't good enough to go about that, but it seems like the right approach. all of this of course hinges on zone finish actually meaning something. Though i suppose is if you can establish that the actual baseline truly is 50% then you can figure something out.

EDIT: using my current method sedins wouldbe right around schiefele level right now- so i guess thats true. It does seem helpful when you restrict it to players with a zone start deviation of 40%-60%
My worry would be that the same variance that you see with the Sedins happens to a lesser extent with other players in the 40-60 spectrum. Something with diminishing returns could work, but I am not sure where you would set your baselines.

Maybe set up something where you compare actual results to expected results.


For example,

You could expect somebody with 70% O zone starts to end with 64% O zone finish

You would determine the value by averaging where the 70%ers finish and do the +/- off that baseline.

You would have to do the same for other O zone start percentages, but that is the set up that I could see working.

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02-05-2013, 04:18 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
My worry would be that the same variance that you see with the Sedins happens to a lesser extent with other players in the 40-60 spectrum. Something with diminishing returns could work, but I am not sure where you would set your baselines.

Maybe set up something where you compare actual results to expected results.


For example,

You could expect somebody with 70% O zone starts to end with 64% O zone finish

You would determine the value by averaging where the 70%ers finish and do the +/- off that baseline.

You would have to do the same for other O zone start percentages, but that is the set up that I could see working.
just found an old post at Artic ice talking abotu zone shifts, and balance zone shifts.

I will ivnestigate tomorrow while nursing my hangover form tonights game!

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02-05-2013, 04:25 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
just found an old post at Artic ice talking abotu zone shifts, and balance zone shifts.

I will ivnestigate tomorrow while nursing my hangover form tonights game!
damn AIH guys... they've done everything already... **** them haha

PS classic grindphone

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02-05-2013, 04:35 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
damn AIH guys... they've done everything already... **** them haha

PS classic grindphone
Those guys are the best.


Seriously, Gabe is pretty stellar.

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02-05-2013, 04:37 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Those guys are the best.


Seriously, Gabe is pretty stellar.
Minnesota fans hate Gabe pretty hard haha

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02-05-2013, 04:38 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Minnesota fans hate Gabe pretty hard haha
They hate Bogosian even more.

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02-07-2013, 06:44 PM
  #84
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Non-#fancystats

Simple, not to telling, but kind of neat:
All I did was look at what players normal career sh% is... then looked at what the players shots/game is... then extrapolated how many goals we should expect approximately by the end of the season.

Kane 14
Ladd 14
Little 13
Jokinen 13
Byfuglien 11
Wheeler 10
Wellwood 8
Antropov 8
Postma 7
Burmistrov 6
Slater 4
Redmond 4
Stuart 4
Poinkarovsky 4
Clitsome 3
Wright 3
Enstrom 2
Hainsey 2
Thorburn 2


Obviously there are some WILD assumptions going on here...
1) no one changing their usage or TOI then currently being used (too late for that)
2) Enstrom not scoring again (lol)
3) No injuries or injured players returning
4) Postma and Redmond retaining their AHL sh% (fat chance)... unlikely because a) less PP time equals lower sh% for D (closer to net + more dangerous shots on PP) and b) stronger (relatively) goalies
5) no 6 goal game for Hainsey (psht)

Not super telling, but I'm interested to see how this will end. It's also a good sign for Little that for the first time in his life he's shooting more!!

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02-09-2013, 12:12 PM
  #85
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How the team is doing...

Defensive
STRENGTH(RANK)SA/60SV%GA/60
5v5 28.7 900 2.9
5v5rank 19 21 25
4v5 45.9 735 12.1
4v5rank 15 30 30
*5v5 is as good or maybe even better than should be expected without Bogosian and some games without Byfuglien. The Jets' GA seem to stem more from a combination of poor SV% and missing two key defensemen, with emphasis on the prior point.
*4v5 is as Truck and I keep saying, goaltending. Jets' goaltending has been worse for PK than any other team, even though the Jets' PK is about average (without Bogosian).

Offensive
STRENGTH(RANK)SF/60SH%GF/60
5v5 29.0 7.4 2.1
5v5rank 13 20 20
5v4 32.7 24.2 7.9
5v4rank 30 1 9
*5v5 is not bad (again without Bogosian and missing some Byfuglien). The Jets' have been struck a bit with bad shooting percentages, as it is pulling them down a bit (on individuals it's mostly affecting: Burmistrov, Ponikarovsky, Antropov, Wellwood and Jokinen).
*5v4 is scary... there's no way a shooting percentage like that will stay like that and Jets' could plummet quickly to the worst PP team in the league.

Scoring Chances and Out-Chancing Opponent
TEAMFenHomeFenAwayFenwick
JETS 50.55 50.24 50.42
Rank 16 13 15
*While this looks only at 5v5 it's a reminder that if you remove special teams and goalies the Jets are a low tier playoff team and have been playing as such, again without Bogosian and missing Byfuglien for some games.

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02-10-2013, 05:10 PM
  #86
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Corsi and Fenwick are two great ways to determine whether or not a player is "beating" it's opposition by looking at whether you out-chance your opponents. Problem I've always have had, is that it disregards WHY you out-chance your opponents. Is it because you're really good defensively (Scuderi), a two-way kind of player (Enstrom), or an offensive monster (Byfuglien)?

The images below are made from David Johnson's stats.hockeyanalysis.com, which is the same site I get the with/without raw data from. He's attempted to answer the question above by separating the events for and against the team when the player is on and off the ice, and putting it through an algorithm to try and diminish team affects... it's neat.

The two problems I have with it is related and both are in the realm of usage, or rather zone starts and match-ups bias. It's a significantly harder task to suppress shots from Sidney Crosby when you line up against him in your defensive zone than it is to suppress shots from Chris Thorburn when you line up against him in your offensive zone. He hasn't attempted to diminish match-up affects, but to diminish zone starts what he does is remove all events that occur within 10 seconds of the puck being dropped. Personally I think it's an improvement but not quite there, as 10s seems pretty arbitrary... meh! Still interesting.

We're currently at a realm of really small sample size but here we go.
The solid line at 1.0 is the point of being a benefit or a hindrance. The Y-axis is his offensive results rating while the X-axis is his defensive results rating, in regard to creating and preventing the respective event (Fenwick or Corsi). In theory, top left is offensive, top right is two-way, bottom right is defensive, and bottom left is a ****ty player.

I wouldn't take much into account quite yet, because the sample size is extraordinarly small and is very much affected by usage (ex: poor Enstrom and Hainsey have been leaned on VERY heavily by Noel while Byfuglien and Bogosian have been out).

Defense



Offense




I'd say give it till game 20, then it should start looking better and more along the lines of what's going on.

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02-11-2013, 04:51 PM
  #87
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Jets' Underlying Numbers: Defense

NameRelQoCOZSRelCorsiCorsiSF/60SA/60P/60
Byfuglien 1.974 45.6 06.5 -01.90 32.4 29.6 0.95
Enstrom 0.847 47.2 -09.9 -07.29 28.6 25.1 1.75
Hainsey 0.345 43.5 -26.8 -17.83 24.7 28.5 0.30
Redmond 0.721 52.5 09.3 10.03 25.1 16.5 0.72
Stuart 1.025 41.2 -04.3 -04.11 25.0 26.0 0.34
Postma -1.335 63.3 25.6 17.64 31.0 25.4 1.29
Clitsome -1.080 60.3 13.2 08.73 29.4 31.2 0.92

Fun with numbers... Tough to extrapolate things with the dog breakfast of pairings and usage that has been the Jets' since Noel keeps having to change things with Byfuglien's injury.

Some notes:
*Byfuglien has been missed: Without him Enstrom and Hainsey's numbers have plummeted as one is asked to do a job above their abilities (Hainsey) and the other is paired with such a person (Enstrom). I predict (not using numbers, just knowing about our players) that Enstrom will shoot into the black once Byfuglien returns.
*Redmond has pulled up Stuart: Pre-Redmond Stuart was doing worse than Hainsey, but now doesn't look so bad. Now TBH it's highly unrealistic to think that Redmond is so good at pushing the play that he'll stay at only 16.5 shots against per 30 mins. It is likely to drop their numbers down but with the return of Byfuglien, we'll most likely see Redmond paired with Hainsey, which should improve things a bit. After that, with the return of Bogosian, we'll see Redmond most likely placed on the third pair with Stuart, but receiving much more sheltered minutes than of late... so even though those SA will come up, the effect of such may not be as bad (30 SA by a 2nd liner > 30 SA by a 4th liner).
*Postma vs Redmond: Redmond has received less sheltering, yet he has been more effective defensively. At the same time, Postma has created the offensive opportunities to outchance a stable SA# while Redmond were facing the same SA that Postma was he'd be being out-shot.
*When Bogosian returns...: our depth should be exactly as we'd want it to be. We should have players moved into roles and slots that we want, and this should create a nice domino affect.

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02-11-2013, 05:35 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
NameRelQoCOZSRelCorsiCorsiSF/60SA/60P/60
Byfuglien 1.974 45.6 06.5 -01.90 32.4 29.6 0.95
Enstrom 0.847 47.2 -09.9 -07.29 28.6 25.1 1.75
Hainsey 0.345 43.5 -26.8 -17.83 24.7 28.5 0.30
Redmond 0.721 52.5 09.3 10.03 25.1 16.5 0.72
Stuart 1.025 41.2 -04.3 -04.11 25.0 26.0 0.34
Postma -1.335 63.3 25.6 17.64 31.0 25.4 1.29
Clitsome -1.080 60.3 13.2 08.73 29.4 31.2 0.92

Fun with numbers... Tough to extrapolate things with the dog breakfast of pairings and usage that has been the Jets' since Noel keeps having to change things with Byfuglien's injury.

Some notes:
*Byfuglien has been missed: Without him Enstrom and Hainsey's numbers have plummeted as one is asked to do a job above their abilities (Hainsey) and the other is paired with such a person (Enstrom). I predict (not using numbers, just knowing about our players) that Enstrom will shoot into the black once Byfuglien returns.
*Redmond has pulled up Stuart: Pre-Redmond Stuart was doing worse than Hainsey, but now doesn't look so bad. Now TBH it's highly unrealistic to think that Redmond is so good at pushing the play that he'll stay at only 16.5 shots against per 30 mins. It is likely to drop their numbers down but with the return of Byfuglien, we'll most likely see Redmond paired with Hainsey, which should improve things a bit. After that, with the return of Bogosian, we'll see Redmond most likely placed on the third pair with Stuart, but receiving much more sheltered minutes than of late... so even though those SA will come up, the effect of such may not be as bad (30 SA by a 2nd liner > 30 SA by a 4th liner).
*Postma vs Redmond: Redmond has received less sheltering, yet he has been more effective defensively. At the same time, Postma has created the offensive opportunities to outchance a stable SA# while Redmond were facing the same SA that Postma was he'd be being out-shot.
*When Bogosian returns...: our depth should be exactly as we'd want it to be. We should have players moved into roles and slots that we want, and this should create a nice domino affect.
Even if you bump Redmond's SA/60 up by 10, into the average range he's still holding his own against some pretty tough competition. Small samples and all that, but has Clitsome had a single game as good as any of Redmond's? Clitsome is sheltered like Robert Arryn and he's getting beat all the time. I hope Redmond gets a chance to continue his play here...

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02-11-2013, 05:39 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Even if you bump Redmond's SA/60 up by 10, into the average range he's still holding his own against some pretty tough competition. Small samples and all that, but has Clitsome had a single game as good as any of Redmond's? Clitsome is sheltered like Robert Arryn and he's getting beat all the time. I hope Redmond gets a chance to continue his play here...
Agreed!
I think the numbers indicate the same things we all believe:
Postma + Redmond = promising rookies
Clitsome = hopefully not winning a reg roster spot over the above two

But to answer your question:
Redmond didn't have a great game possession-wise last night, but (although only a brief skim from the nhl.com data) the minuses predominately arose from the Jets' turtling in the last 10 mins of the game... so the answer is maybe Redmond has had a worse game than Clitsome's best game... but on average numbers and eyes Redmond>Clitsome

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02-11-2013, 05:39 PM
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Clitsome is sheltered like Robert Arryn

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02-11-2013, 05:58 PM
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God I'm tired.

posted in the completely wrong thread. My apologies for disrupting the statistical analyses.


Last edited by Lynk: 02-11-2013 at 06:37 PM.
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02-11-2013, 06:34 PM
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Jets' Underlying Numbers: Offense

NameRelQoCOZSRelCorsiCorsiSF/60SA/60P/60OnIceSh%
Ladd 1.211 52.9 04.5 01.85 28.5 30.3 1.85 9.41
Little 1.256 44.9 -04.7 -04.52 26.7 29.0 1.50 8.97
Wheeler 0.897 54.9 -08.1 -06.99 27.6 24.5 2.33 7.79
Kane 0.049 57.1 00.7 -00.74 33.4 24.5 1.48 6.25
Jokinen -0.176 55.8 -00.5 -01.58 33.3 26.9 0.40 5.62
Antropov 1.073 54.8 02.3 00.42 32.4 28.2 0.84 4.94
Burmistrov 0.014 50.7 15.2 09.75 26.4 24.0 0.81 7.14
Wellwood 0.778 48.2 21.3 12.50 26.1 22.7 1.14 8.00
Ponikarovsky 0.680 47.7 07.4 04.42 24.1 26.0 0.98 5.77
Slater -0.432 25.0 -18.7 -16.59 21.1 26.2 1.28 8.33
Wright -0.992 50.0 -00.5 -01.77 25.7 23.9 0.00 0.00
Thorburn -1.114 36.4 -15.5 -14.43 25.1 27.3 0.76 2.94

Fun with numbers...
Some interesting patterns:
*Many have low OnIceSh%: Kane, Jokinen, Antropov, Ponikarovsky, Wright (0.00!)and Thorburn are under 7% which is pretty significant
*Many of our top6 leave something to be desired: Little, Wheeler, Kane are all negatives possession-wise when they were pulling positive numbers last season... Hopefully with the return of two top-tier Dmen and once the lines settle some chemistry (+sample size gets bigger) things will look a bit better.
*Slater is a FO specialist, what's your excuse Thor: Life of a D-zone FO specialist will never have pretty Corsi digits. Think about it... you go into the Dzone for faceoff with a line that isn't yours, one of two things will happen: 1) your team get's the puck out of the zone so you quickly go to the bench and change, so your TOI just rose without any shots on net, either side, or 2) your team gets shot on a few times and you get some nasty minuses before you can go to the bench
*How the heck is Wright at 50% OZS on that line: I know part of the answer is combination of: sometimes Poni gets put out there to push play forward and Wright is a tad new to the scene... but still at 50%???

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02-18-2013, 12:54 PM
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Jets D Update

in ES TOI/gp order
NameRelQoCOZSRelCorsiCorsiSF/60SA/60P/60
Bogosian 0.165 33.3 -02.3 01.40 23.8 28.0 1.40
Byfuglien 1.905 52.6 -07.3 -05.38 30.7 29.4 0.63
Enstrom 0.496 50.3 -13.5 -08.47 28.6 25.1 1.59
Hainsey 0.345 43.5 -21.4 -12.66 27.8 25.7 0.23
Redmond -2.014 50.0 21.3 19.54 28.8 16.7 0.93
Stuart -0.036 43.8 -01.7 -0.55 24.0 24.0 0.27
Postma -1.688 59.8 24.0 18.11 30.3 25.1 1.04
Clitsome -0.762 60.3 13.2 08.73 29.4 31.2 0.92
Bogosian: Two game sample size so everything should be taken with a grain of salt, but doesn't look like he's missed a beat coming back. Those SF/SA are likely due to sample size and the crazy OZS%. I hope he gets some time beside Buff because 1) I'm nervous about all this top pair TOI Hainsey keeps getting and 2) Bogo on the leftside can prep him for when Trouba enters our top4.
Byfuglien: Buff is a high risk/high reward guy. Problem is without Enstrom, I fear how much risk is being/goingtobe exploited. Also problem, Byfuglien's reward isn't as high. He's currently scoring at exactly half as often as last season per a min although Enstrom's pt/min seems to have gone up for exactly as much as Buff's has gone down.
Enstrom: Rough... Enstrom has NEVER been a negative possession guy in his career and this is sad to see. IMHO Byfuglien works best with a (healthy) Enstrom and Enstrom works best with a (healthy) Byfuglien... and (also IMHO) we've only had 5 games like that (interestingly we were 3-2-1 then and the two of them were both in the positives for possession then).
Hainsey: I fight tooth and nail that this guy is a legit #4, but he will never be mistaken as a #2. He even looked ok as a #3 with Stu. But, as a #2... sorry Ron, but I'm not supporting you there and the numbers don't either.
Redmond: His SA aren't really regressing to a more normal number very fast which is nice to see as it means he's probably doing low 20s lately. Both Redmond and Postma are an upgrade on Clitsome who ended 6th in our depth over last season. I'll take Redmond and Postma over Jones and Flood any day of the year. I think these guys are ready for a bit tougher assignments so hopefully Noel can relax the load on the top guys a bit soon as they are drowning.
Stuart: I still don't think this guy is top4 and can be a liability while without the reward part Byfuglien or Postma bring... but I will give credit when it's due. He did pretty decent in second pair with Hainsey or Redmond and he's doing pretty decent on the third pair. He still puts himself out of position at times when he goes for hits or blocks, but it's less than last season. Hasn't fixed the offensive plug thing though.
Postma: His game is a bit risk/reward like Byfuglien, but similarly to Buff I've noticed the risks keep shrinking as time goes on; good ol' Huddy. Just like Redmond, Postma has been a promising player even if they have both been sheltered severely.
Clitsome: Yes, he is the worst of the bunch, and yes he's had some scary moments... but, TBH he's pretty good for a #8. Last season the #8 was flood and Clitsome seems to create/score more and allow less than Flood (or even the Clitsome of last season)

Overall the Jets D seem to be having some issues of late. The only D pairs that seem to be doing well are the pairs that are getting more of the sheltered match-ups.
I said it before this season started. This team is a 8th/7th playoff seed team on two conditions: somewhat healthy top3 D and league average goaltending... unfotunately we have yet to have that.


Last edited by garret9: 02-19-2013 at 01:22 AM.
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02-19-2013, 01:18 AM
  #94
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NameRelQoCOZSRelCorsiCorsiSF/60SA/60P/60
Wheeler 0.651 54.7 -04.7 -02.68 28.9 26.5 2.38
Little 0.948 44.1 -00.9 00.00 28.9 28.6 1.43
Ladd 1.002 52.3 06.1 04.88 29.0 29.0 2.30
Kane -0.453 57.4 03.1 02.74 31.8 24.4 1.92
Burmistrov 0.098 53.8 09.9 07.68 25.5 23.6 1.23
Antropov 0.545 57.5 00.5 00.96 30.4 27.5 0.96
Wellwood -0.182 49.3 16.8 11.66 24.5 22.1 0.80
Jokinen -1.007 57.0 -01.3 -00.31 29.3 25.7 0.31
Tangradi -1.806 53.1 -06.2 00.00 23.9 19.6 0.00
Wright -2.458 46.3 -03.5 -02.17 25.3 23.9 0.00
Slater -1.758 25.6 -19.6 -15.88 20.8 25.2 1.10
Thorburn -1.730 36.5 -10.2 -09.28 25.2 25.2 0.66
Wheeler: Last season Wheeler scores 2.05 pts/60mins, this season he improves on that, scoring at the fastest rate in his career, and everyone says he needs to wake up. His possession numbers are worse, but they've been improving slowly over the last few games.
Little: Scoring about the same as last season although possession isn't as high, but like all of LLW it has been improving ever since they've been placed back together.
Ladd: Scoring also at a high rate, his highest other than 08-09 season. Best possession numbers of LLW, but also at a far cry relative to last season; it should be noted that LLW is facing more top6 matchups than last season.
Kane: Kane has been on a bit of a goal scoring rut until last game, but luckily his primary assists have (slightly) made up for it. Possession is similar to last year.
Burmistrov: Offensive game is waiting to become true top6 but there are signs of improvement from last season. His the teams second best possession player.
Antropov: Speaking of scoring slumps Antro, with Jokinen and Wellwood, have been the brunt of poor team shooting percentages, and due to this is scoring much lower than usual even though their scoring chances haven't droped. Antropov's possession has improved this season, although it may be playing with possession stalwarts like Burmistrov, Ponikarovsky and Wellwood.
Wellwood: Speaking of possession stalwarts, Wellwood is top of the team just like last season. As noted previously, the Jets' poor shooting percentages have hurt Antropov, Wellwood and Jokinen the most.
Jokinen: The third in our poor percentage players, Jokinen is coring the by one third the rate he normally does. Jokinen`s possession is much improved on last season, but that should be expected since last season he was facing ridiculous competition, and now he`s semi-sheltered.
Tangradi: This players lack of scoring hasn`t occured with low team shooting percentages, so we may not want to expect much scoring. He came to us with really high possession numbers, but no longer being on a line with Malkin, that has started to plummet... meanwhile Ponikarovsky is doing pretty swell in New Jersey...
Wright: I like this guy. Sure being on a 3rd line is a bit past his abillities, but he makes for a great 4th liner, especially with Noel`s type of usage. Much better 4th liner than Glass or Thorburn IMO. If we can find one more of him, and switch Thorburn, I`d be happy!
Slater: Poor possession is part of the job when it comes to faceoff specialist, as you go out there sometimes for d-zone work only and linechange as soon as possible, just ask Malholtra. Slater always has, and still does, score at a very impressive rate for a 4th liner.
Thorburn: I`ve said it before: Slater gets terrible possession numbers with all the FO specialist work. Thorburn gets it because he`s not that great at hockey.

Overall our forwards look like they have had a bit of trouble hitting the net, but even when they do a smaller percentage of shots go in the net than normal. I would guess that a lot of it has to do with luck, as the Jets`haven`t been shooting a large ratio of shots to the perimiter relative to some high scoring teams, despite what commonly get`s expressed here. There definately seems to be some luck issues and some underacheiving going on here.

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02-19-2013, 11:44 PM
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Here's some interesting stuff from Ben Wendorf (formally of AIH)

http://benwendorf.tumblr.com/post/43...e-percentage-1

Quote:
Taking the last 3,000 shots (using this post as my reference; SV% at all strengths) as an indicator of Pavelec’s most recent demonstrated talent, I’ve shown how those 3,000 shots have progressively stabilized to his observed SV% up to the most recent game. The red line denotes stabilization of league-average save percentage over this same period. I might be questioned on using all-strengths save percentage, but when you are using roughly 100-150 games to assess talent and future performance, overall SV% performs virtually identical to even-strength save percentage
http://benwendorf.tumblr.com/post/43...e-percentage-2

Quote:
Looking over the same spread of 3,000 shots as this post, except now we’re looking at 10-game rolling average SV%. As you can see, Pavelec’s performance only briefly moved above league average, on a memorable spell in the early- to mid-season of 2011-12. Otherwise, he’s been pretty consistently below average. As with the previous post on Pavelec, this is using basic SV%.

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02-20-2013, 12:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I notice that with tonight's solid performance, Pavs has vaulted into the top 30 in both Sv% and GAA, moving from awful to just well below average.
Lesson: Turns out we won't have to trade half the team, fire the coach and tar and feather Chevy if we continue to get great goaltending.
What are the chances? Maybe history is wrong and numbers lie...

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02-20-2013, 12:15 AM
  #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
I notice that with tonight's solid performance, Pavs has vaulted into the top 30 in both Sv% and GAA, moving from awful to just well below average.
Lesson: Turns out we won't have to trade half the team, fire the coach and tar and feather Chevy if we continue to get great goaltending.
What are the chances? Maybe history is wrong and numbers lie...
My opinion has always been that if Pav's improves his positioning (teachable) and conditioning (trainable) he'd be a top10 goalie, and I have always been open at that. I have even repeatedly quoted the goalie guild who predicted this year to be Pavelec's first step into true contention.
It's not what he could be that I ever argue here but what he has done and who's shoulders most of it falls on.

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02-20-2013, 12:32 AM
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
My opinion has always been that if Pav's improves his positioning (teachable) and conditioning (trainable) he'd be a top10 goalie, and I have always been open at that. I have even repeatedly quoted the goalie guild who predicted this year to be Pavelec's first step into true contention.
It's not what he could be that I ever argue here but what he has done and who's shoulders most of it falls on.
I don't disagree with what you have said about his potential or the remediable factors above, but would add that something needs to change between his ears, as well. He looked completely focused, yet relaxed tonight, unlike so many games we have seen this year. I fervently hope he can learn to keep it up on a consistent basis, but, thus far, he has shown no evidence of that.

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02-20-2013, 01:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
I don't disagree with what you have said about his potential or the remediable factors above, but would add that something needs to change between his ears, as well. He looked completely focused, yet relaxed tonight, unlike so many games we have seen this year. I fervently hope he can learn to keep it up on a consistent basis, but, thus far, he has shown no evidence of that.
I could totally see that and agree.

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02-20-2013, 01:07 PM
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great graphs garret and it tells the stark tale of a team that has received less than average NHL goaltending for a decent stretch of time. We are not a good enough team to make the playoffs with below average goaltending and I would actually like to see what team could pull off a playoff spot with below average goaltending (maybe the Blackhawks, perhaps Philly)?

Our team is going to live and die by this stat for a few more seasons at least IMHO.

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