HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > By The Numbers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
By The Numbers Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

Halak: 229 minutes, 2 shutouts.........0.889 SV%

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-05-2013, 03:17 PM
  #26
Halak Ness Monster
Registered User
 
Halak Ness Monster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: St. Louis, MO
Country: United States
Posts: 970
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoopALoop View Post
72 shots against in 5 games.

That's an average of 14.4 shots per game. It's tough to have a high SV% when you're facing almost 0 shots.

This thread is hilarious and ill-informed.
Halak has been pulled twice in those 5 games. He was taken out because of injury against Detroit in the 1st and in the 2nd against Nashville because of performance.

So your 14.4 average/game is quite off. Halak has only played 3 full games and 48 minutes in 2 others combined.

The number is right about 19 shots a game. (72 shots allowed divided by about 3.80 games).

Had he stayed in against Detroit, he would have faced 31 shots but instead only faced 11.

Halak Ness Monster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:17 PM
  #27
CarvinSigX
Registered User
 
CarvinSigX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Illinois
Country: United States
Posts: 7,951
vCash: 2616
I think Halak is overrated a bit, but those stats really don't mean a thing. He's still a legitimate starting goalie.

CarvinSigX is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:24 PM
  #28
MeowLeafs
LM is awesome
 
MeowLeafs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Baconland
Country: Canada
Posts: 23,868
vCash: 500
Ideally there would be a "quality of shot" stat (it will be subjective, I know). Maybe have 3 categories like low quality shot, average, and high. Then you have the save percentage for each of the three.

MeowLeafs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:27 PM
  #29
Izzy
Moderator
FollowmeonInstagram!
 
Izzy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Nova Scotia
Country: Canada
Posts: 44,971
vCash: 270
Only facing 15 shots a night makes it rough to have a good save percentage. Just 2 goals against devastates it.

Izzy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:29 PM
  #30
GuineaPig
Registered User
 
GuineaPig's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Montréal
Posts: 2,126
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by sh724 View Post
When you only face 15 shots a game it is hard to have a high save %.
How did Elliott and Halak do it last year?

GuineaPig is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:29 PM
  #31
ThirdManIn
Mod Supervisor
 
ThirdManIn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
Posts: 43,807
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
Tough to draw any meaningful conclusions regarding goalie stats on such a small sample size (5 games).
But we were so starved for hockey until a couple of weeks ago. We may only be a handful of games into the season, but, damn it! We're all geared up for mid-season hockey talk

Yeah it's way too early to be drawing any conclusions on players.

__________________
She runs through my veins like a long, black river, and rattles my cage like a thunderstorm.
ThirdManIn is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:46 PM
  #32
Bruv
Loveless
 
Bruv's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Hamsterdam
Country: Finland
Posts: 53,021
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burke the Legend View Post
no he isn't... he has always been kind of a mediocre goalie with some weaknesses (5-hole, juicy rebounds), who has had the ability to sometimes get into red-hot mental zones where his focus is crazy good.

Even during his hero playoff run with Montreal the wheels came off in the conf final when he flopped out of this razor edge zone he was in for the previous 2 series.

So yeah maybe he can be top 5, when he is playing his absolute, unbeatable best, but when you get this Halak is impossible to predict which makes him somewhat less than a top 5 goalie. He is kind of like Anderson in that regards, although Anderson is hot more frequently.
Halak is not a mediocre goalie at all

You just compared him to Anderson too

Bruv is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:51 PM
  #33
BK201
Registered User
 
BK201's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 7,019
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by sh724 View Post
When you only face 15 shots a game it is hard to have a high save %.
Not really unless every shot is a decent scoring chance.

I've seen Elliot for seasons I seriously think the team in front of them is way better than people think and Elliot is not that great and Halak is ok nothing great nothing bad.

BK201 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 03:54 PM
  #34
mizzoublues29
Unregistered User
 
mizzoublues29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Columbia, MO
Country: United States
Posts: 1,942
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by coldsteelonice84 View Post
No, Save percentage means everything. You can look a little deeper to see how many shots the guy is facing and most people do in order to get a fully accurate read on the goalie. Watching the games helps too so you can see how the team defends in front of him. Context matters but the stat is still the best way we have to evaluate goalies.
I seriously hope this is a joke.

mizzoublues29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:13 PM
  #35
AfroThunder396
Lou's Secret Sauce
 
AfroThunder396's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hamburg, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 21,604
vCash: 118
The suggests to me that the Blues defense allows very few shots against, but the ones the do allow are very high quality.

Shots (and therefore saves) are the most overrated stat in the game because there's enormous variations in shot quality and no way to accurately represent that. A higher SV% does not always mean a better goaltender, it could just as easily mean a team is allowing many low quality shots.

People say allowing few overall shots is good defense, yet the goaltender who faces few shots can end up with a stat line similar to Halak's. On the other hand, take Luongo's tenure in Florida where he was facing 35 shots a night of unknown quality. His SV% was excellent. Which goaltender is better? What if we found out all 35 of Luongo's shots were low percentage unscreened point shots, would that change your evaluation?

It's impossible to determine goaltending quality without actually observing the quality of scoring chances. SV% like all other metrics, is useless with no context. Not all shots are created equal.

AfroThunder396 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:21 PM
  #36
Evincar
Your Final Judgement
 
Evincar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 3,262
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by mizzoublues29 View Post
I seriously hope this is a joke.
Save % is the most accuarate stat to measure goalies.

Evincar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:22 PM
  #37
Stevens 4
Registered User
 
Stevens 4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,008
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
How did Elliott and Halak do it last year?
Halak and Elliot averaged 26 shots/game last season.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Litework View Post
Save % is the most accuarate stat to measure goalies.
Maybe, but it still doesn't account for quality of the shots.

Stevens 4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:27 PM
  #38
SneakerPimp82
Registered User
 
SneakerPimp82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Chicago, IL
Country: United States
Posts: 1,654
vCash: 50
Send a message via AIM to SneakerPimp82
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
How did Elliott and Halak do it last year?
They faced more shots(26.1 last year vs. ~21 this year, if memory serves), and they were playing better as well. keep in mind, neither of these guys played during the lockout, so they're still a bit rusty to say the least. Thankfully, this year the Blues are scoring a LOT more and haven't needed that extra big save to win games.

SneakerPimp82 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:28 PM
  #39
Frank Drebin
Registered User
 
Frank Drebin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,863
vCash: 735
Anyone who has ever played goal would tell you they'd rather see 30 shots a game than 15.

Its much harder to stay focused for 60 minutes when you're not getting any work.

Which is a big reason why Brodeur was so great. Very, very few mental lapses.

Frank Drebin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:33 PM
  #40
SneakerPimp82
Registered User
 
SneakerPimp82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Chicago, IL
Country: United States
Posts: 1,654
vCash: 50
Send a message via AIM to SneakerPimp82
Quote:
Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
The suggests to me that the Blues defense allows very few shots against, but the ones the do allow are very high quality.

Shots (and therefore saves) are the most overrated stat in the game because there's enormous variations in shot quality and no way to accurately represent that. A higher SV% does not always mean a better goaltender, it could just as easily mean a team is allowing many low quality shots.

People say allowing few overall shots is good defense, yet the goaltender who faces few shots can end up with a stat line similar to Halak's. On the other hand, take Luongo's tenure in Florida where he was facing 35 shots a night of unknown quality. His SV% was excellent. Which goaltender is better? What if we found out all 35 of Luongo's shots were low percentage unscreened point shots, would that change your evaluation?

It's impossible to determine goaltending quality without actually observing the quality of scoring chances. SV% like all other metrics, is useless with no context. Not all shots are created equal.
You take a look at his GAA during his time with the Panthers and it's right around 2.6, albeit with a high save percentage, which suggest quality chances coupled with very high shot totals. as has been said, each statistic is almost useless on its own, but when placed within the context of the accompanying stats and quality of team play, you can get a much better reading of which goalie is better.

SneakerPimp82 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:37 PM
  #41
DuckJet
Destiny pls
 
DuckJet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Funkytown
Country: Kazakhstan
Posts: 36,505
vCash: 69
If shutouts were useless, Steve Mason's Calder trophy would be in Bobby Ryan's trophy case right now.

And onto a less homeristic way of making my point, shutouts are still an impressive accomplishment. It means no matter how good or bad the defense was, there was one guy that made it impossible for the other team to win.

DuckJet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:46 PM
  #42
Noob616
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Halifax
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,378
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by mizzoublues29 View Post
I seriously hope this is a joke.
It's the best we have right now. Save percentage isn't perfect but it's better than wins and GAA (which aren't all that useless).

Noob616 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:47 PM
  #43
CoopALoop
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Van, Bandwagoner
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,019
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Drebin View Post
Anyone who has ever played goal would tell you they'd rather see 30 shots a game than 15.

Its much harder to stay focused for 60 minutes when you're not getting any work.

Which is a big reason why Brodeur was so great. Very, very few mental lapses.
Aint that the truth. My better games come from a 30+ shot night. Being active and in the right mindset is crucial for goaltending as a simple brain fart will lead to a goal.

Still, Halak facing and average of 14.4 shots a game is pretty indicative of a lower SV%.

Say Halak Faces a whopping 16 shots and 2 manage to get by him, he's looking at a measly save% .875

Couple that in with say a 22 shot night with the same GA and you're looking at a SV% of .909

6 shots brings it from subpar NHL standards to good NHL standards. While numbers don't lie, they sure do flirt with deceit.

CoopALoop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:56 PM
  #44
Chalupa Batman
Mod Supervisor
 
Chalupa Batman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,220
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by fst6 View Post
Only facing 15 shots a night makes it rough to have a good save percentage. Just 2 goals against devastates it.
On the other hand, only facing 15 shots a night makes it much harder to have a two goals against night.

Most of the rigorous studies on the topic have come to the conclusion that workload levels and save percentage are largely uncorrelated at the NHL level.

(I suspect that there'd be a correlation at lower levels, such as the NCAA, since in those cases the shot volume might be a better proxy for shot quality).

Chalupa Batman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:57 PM
  #45
Chalupa Batman
Mod Supervisor
 
Chalupa Batman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,220
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by mizzoublues29 View Post
I seriously hope this is a joke.
Propose something more better (aside from various ways to risk adjust save percentage, which I assume isn't what you meant).

Chalupa Batman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 04:59 PM
  #46
Chalupa Batman
Mod Supervisor
 
Chalupa Batman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,220
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
If shutouts were useless, Steve Mason's Calder trophy would be in Bobby Ryan's trophy case right now.
Well, define useless. Do you mean in terms of assessing a goaltender's overall ability, or in terms of predicting what (superficial) voters will be impress with?

If it's the former, then I'd say that Steve Mason's shutouts had little ability to predict his career path:

http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/masons.html
(look under "REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS")

Despite his ten rookie season shutouts, Mason's save percentage was only one standard deviation above league average his rookie season.

One thing to remember - at a fixed save percentage, if you increase a goaltender's shutouts, then you must also increase his high-goal games (so that his save percentage stays fixed). In other words, at a fixed save percentage, the more shutouts a goaltender has, the more inconsistent his performance is.

Chalupa Batman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 05:04 PM
  #47
Ogopogo*
 
Ogopogo*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 14,214
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ag925 View Post
That stat line is hilarious.

Another reason shutouts (and wins) are meaningless goalie stats.
ALL goalie stats are meaningless. The team in front of the goalie has a significant impact on the numbers

Ogopogo* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 05:04 PM
  #48
intangible
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 832
vCash: 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burke the Legend View Post
no he isn't... he has always been kind of a mediocre goalie with some weaknesses (5-hole, juicy rebounds), who has had the ability to sometimes get into red-hot mental zones where his focus is crazy good.

Even during his hero playoff run with Montreal the wheels came off in the conf final when he flopped out of this razor edge zone he was in for the previous 2 series.
Agreed. In my eyes he likely would be around #10-#12 at best. Guy's no where near top 5 or earned such a distinction. Let's not forget Elliott last year had similar stats, yet isn't as highly regarded. That's a pretty good indicator that it's the team, not the goalie, who's the cause of such great stats.

intangible is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 05:05 PM
  #49
MattyMo35
Moderator
Schwartz Be With You
 
MattyMo35's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: St. Louis, MO
Country: United States
Posts: 7,167
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burke the Legend View Post
no he isn't... he has always been kind of a mediocre goalie with some weaknesses (5-hole, juicy rebounds), who has had the ability to sometimes get into red-hot mental zones where his focus is crazy good.

Even during his hero playoff run with Montreal the wheels came off in the conf final when he flopped out of this razor edge zone he was in for the previous 2 series.

So yeah maybe he can be top 5, when he is playing his absolute, unbeatable best, but when you get this Halak is impossible to predict which makes him somewhat less than a top 5 goalie. He is kind of like Anderson in that regards, although Anderson is hot more frequently.
High glove is definitely his biggest weakness. I agree with pretty much everything else you said. When he's on, he is really, really good. When he's not on, he let's in quite a few softies. If he played at his best all the time, he might be a top 5 goalie. As he is, maybe a slightly above average starter.

MattyMo35 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-05-2013, 05:06 PM
  #50
sh724
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Missouri
Country: United States
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
On the other hand, only facing 15 shots a night makes it much harder to have a two goals against night.

Most of the rigorous studies on the topic have come to the conclusion that workload levels and save percentage are largely uncorrelated at the NHL level.

(I suspect that there'd be a correlation at lower levels, such as the NCAA, since in those cases the shot volume might be a better proxy for shot quality).
On the whole save percentage and workload are not correlated but if you break it down to goalie by goalie you will find some goalies do better with lots of shots and other goalies perform better with less shots.

sh724 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:16 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.