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The Markov Conundrum

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Old
02-05-2013, 11:17 AM
  #176
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Agreed again. The risk is definitely high for the team trading the better player. Considering we have no one in the system with the same impact that Markov has, or any d-prospect with Elite potential, trading Markov for futures is not a good idea, especially when you add to this the fact that elite d-men are such an integral part to a successful team, probably imo, the most integral part.
The risk isn't necessarily higher for the seller even if that player is an established star. If Dallas doesn't win the cup that trade looks horrible, ditto for Calgary. But sometimes you have to go for it when you're close to a cup. That's why I wished we could've gone after Bobby Ryan years ago because we probably could've gotten him.

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02-05-2013, 11:34 AM
  #177
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Originally Posted by agnostic View Post
there is a lot of cya going on with the words 'if the right deal comes along'

people should expand on those words so all cards are on the table.

It has to be a good hockey trade to make markov expendable . Montreal needs a sure thing on the return not a draft pick .
cya?

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02-05-2013, 11:44 AM
  #178
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
The risk isn't necessarily higher for the seller even if that player is an established star. If Dallas doesn't win the cup that trade looks horrible, ditto for Calgary. But sometimes you have to go for it when you're close to a cup. That's why I wished we could've gone after Bobby Ryan years ago because we probably could've gotten him.
Who says Ryan wouldn't have ended up not developing in Montreal the same way he did besides guys like Getzlaf and Perry? Who says people were all that interested in Souray, who didn't have much more success than Rivet after he signed his new contract?

Revisionism is cool when you look back at could'ves and should'ves. The truth though is, there are no certainty. And even when you're sure you're pulling a good move for the future of your franchise, you don't know how it can turn out.

Hell. Gainey thought it would've been crazy to give what was asked by Atlanta for Marian Hossa. A couple of years later, I'm not sure he would still hesitate to pull the trigger if he still had the choice.

GMs are being paid to balance the pros and cons of each of those potential moves. Pulling the trigger on a move is simple. Maximizing the chances you get the better end of a deal isn't always that simple. Especially when it's a process that involves human beings and many different opinions in the same management group.

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02-05-2013, 12:00 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by GFORCE View Post
Who says Ryan wouldn't have ended up not developing in Montreal the same way he did besides guys like Getzlaf and Perry? Who says people were all that interested in Souray, who didn't have much more success than Rivet after he signed his new contract?
Who says he doesn't become Crosby? I mean come on man... The guy was a 2nd overall and expected to be good. Is it a surprise he's developed into a good player? Of course not.

And seriously we lost those guys for nothing anyway so even if he did bust... so what? We weren't winning cups with those guys and Ryan could've helped us for the future, that's why it makes sense sometimes to make those kinds of moves.

Is that the case now? Not sure yet. But I think that it's extremely close minded to sit there and say that Markov is untradable or that the only way we give him up is for a guy like Jordan Eberle when we're seven or eight games into the season...
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Originally Posted by GFORCE View Post
Revisionism is cool when you look back at could'ves and should'ves.
Except that its not revisionist. I said this back then. And back then people were saying the same thing you are now. That's the point. Our management never looked at the future... they were always focused on THIS season.
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Originally Posted by GFORCE View Post
The truth though is, there are no certainty. And even when you're sure you're pulling a good move for the future of your franchise, you don't know how it can turn out.
So because there's "no certainty" we can't make calculated risks on the future? I'm glad Sam Polloch didn't feel that way.
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Originally Posted by GFORCE View Post
Hell. Gainey thought it would've been crazy to give what was asked by Atlanta for Marian Hossa. A couple of years later, I'm not sure he would still hesitate to pull the trigger if he still had the choice.

GMs are being paid to balance the pros and cons of each of those potential moves. Pulling the trigger on a move is simple. Maximizing the chances you get the better end of a deal isn't always that simple. Especially when it's a process that involves human beings and many different opinions in the same management group.
So GMs are paid to balance the pros and cons of deals... so what?

That's all this thread is asking you to do.
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
There is a lot of CYA going on with the words 'if the right deal comes along'

People should expand on those words so all cards are on the table.

It has to be a good hockey trade to make Markov expendable . Montreal needs a sure thing on the return not a draft pick .
Does that go for any draft pick? Would you do a 1st overall? A 2nd?

There's no such thing as a "sure thing" dude... Hell, Markov isn't a sure thing.

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02-05-2013, 12:05 PM
  #180
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Who says he doesn't become Crosby? I mean come on man... The guy was a 2nd overall and expected to be good. Is it a surprise he's developed into a good player? Of course not.

And seriously we lost those guys for nothing anyway so even if he did bust... so what? We weren't winning cups with those guys and Ryan could've helped us for the future, that's why it makes sense sometimes to make those kinds of moves.

Is that the case now? Not sure yet. But I think that it's extremely close minded to sit there and say that Markov is untradable or that the only way we give him up is for a guy like Jordan Eberle when we're seven or eight games into the season...

Except that its not revisionist. I said this back then. And back then people were saying the same thing you are now. That's the point. Our management never looked at the future... they were always focused on THIS season.

So because there's "no certainty" we can't make calculated risks on the future? I'm glad Sam Polloch didn't feel that way.

So GMs are paid to balance the pros and cons of deals... so what?

That's all this thread is asking you to do.
StLouis traded vets and acquired prospect Brett Hull... they're still waiting for their first cup...

Calgary acquired Iginla who has yet to win a cup...


really, those two are examples as to why we should trade our vets to acquire prospects I guess...

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02-05-2013, 12:32 PM
  #181
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cya?
cover-your-ass

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02-05-2013, 12:35 PM
  #182
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
StLouis traded vets and acquired prospect Brett Hull... they're still waiting for their first cup...

Calgary acquired Iginla who has yet to win a cup...


really, those two are examples as to why we should trade our vets to acquire prospects I guess...
it's hard to argue that those trades didn't help the team that got the prospect, even if a cup wasn't forthcoming.

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02-05-2013, 12:37 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
it's hard to argue that those trades didn't help the team that got the prospect, even if a cup wasn't forthcoming.
No. Its very clear that St. Louis didn't win a cup. And the reason they didn't win was because they traded for Brett Hull...

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02-05-2013, 12:53 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
it's hard to argue that those trades didn't help the team that got the prospect, even if a cup wasn't forthcoming.
well, prospect or not, usually when a team gets the better player or better prospect it helps obviously, but bringing Hull and Iginla into the conversation saying (kinda) "see, it works!" is kinda, well, dumb!

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02-05-2013, 01:10 PM
  #185
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cover-your-ass
ah! thanks

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02-05-2013, 01:13 PM
  #186
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A decision like this wouldn't happen until very close to the trade deadline. Too many things need to happen, such as Marky playing well and staying healthy over the next couple of months. We would also have to spiral down and be out of the playoffs for a Marky trade to happen.

He's too valuable to our team, and is a good mentor for both Emelin and Galchenyuk.

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02-05-2013, 02:21 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
StLouis traded vets and acquired prospect Brett Hull... they're still waiting for their first cup...

Calgary acquired Iginla who has yet to win a cup...


really, those two are examples as to why we should trade our vets to acquire prospects I guess...
Its not the players fault that management has failed them time and time again. The Blues made the playoffs a record number of years in a row before management **** the bed. Iginla came to within 1 game of winning the cup in Calgary, otherwise management was pretty horrid in Calgary for many years. Just because they haven't won the cup, does not mean they were not big parts of the teams plan, missing pieces happen, only 1 team can win a cup each year...

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02-05-2013, 02:25 PM
  #188
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Don't get the point of trading him. He is still fairly young and could very well provide this team with solid leadership on the ice for another 4-5 years. Why trade him? That would just be going backwards.

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02-05-2013, 02:51 PM
  #189
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Don't get the point of trading him. He is still fairly young and could very well provide this team with solid leadership on the ice for another 4-5 years. Why trade him? That would just be going backwards.
That's exactly what people said about Koiuv.

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02-05-2013, 03:03 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
StLouis traded vets and acquired prospect Brett Hull... they're still waiting for their first cup...

Calgary acquired Iginla who has yet to win a cup...


really, those two are examples as to why we should trade our vets to acquire prospects I guess...
The Flames won the Cup with the vet they got for Brett Hull. I'm fairly sure they didn't regret it.

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02-05-2013, 03:07 PM
  #191
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
That's exactly what people said about Koiuv.
True, but nobody knew that Gainey would be dense enough to let him go. I mean, sure, if Markov is just gonna be let go to free agency, try to get some value out of him.

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02-05-2013, 03:15 PM
  #192
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True, but nobody knew that Gainey would be dense enough to let him go. I mean, sure, if Markov is just gonna be let go to free agency, try to get some value out of him.
I don't disagree on Gainey, my point is more along the lines of us treating these players as being indispensible and that we NEED them or the sky will fall.

I don't deny that losing Markov would hurt us in the short term but over the long haul we might be better off if we get the right return.

I'm more opmtimistic now than I was with any previous Hab team. Even back when we had that fluke 100 point season I knew we weren't good enough to win. Now I look at our core and see high end talent (or at least the promise of it) at several key positions. And Galchenyuk's early performance has me re-evaluating the window of our chance at winning. I didn't think we'd have a shot at a cup for at least a few years but with Gally's emergence it might be a shorter window than that. Right now I'd be far less likely to trade away Plekanec than I would've been. Markov though? Depends on how we finish, depends on his play and the return.

Again so early in the season and we have had a very easy schedule so far. Let's see how Galchenyuk does against tougher checking. Let's see if Markov's knee holds up and let's see how we do against tougher opponents. If we're still winning, Markov is playing great and we're fighting for 1st at the end of the year? Tough to justify dealing Markov at all.
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
The Flames won the Cup with the vet they got for Brett Hull. I'm fairly sure they didn't regret it.
I'm fairly sure that St. Louis didn't regret dealing for Hull either. But hey it's ECWHSWI so what do you expect? At least he spared the emoticons in that post.

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02-05-2013, 03:19 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
That's exactly what people said about Koiuv.
Ignoring contract length for a moment do you think a guy like Markov's trade value would change much over the next couple of years. If he's worth a good prospect + 1st come trade deadline, he's probably worth the same next deadline, and the one after that, etc...

It makes the most sense to wait at least a few years at least so that we get a better sense of Beaulieu & Subban's potential. Plus we could potentially be contenders very quickly if Gally reaches his potential quickly and last year was merely a hiccup. Obviously if someone is willing to overpay then you have to consider it but it's unlikely at this point.

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02-05-2013, 03:28 PM
  #194
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So, outside the hypothetical, what are the names to throw into this?

Markov to the blueshirts for Del Zotto or Mcdonagh?

Oilers for Sam Gagner?

Unless there are some good names thrown into this it's a non starter.

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02-05-2013, 03:44 PM
  #195
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Ignoring contract length for a moment do you think a guy like Markov's trade value would change much over the next couple of years. If he's worth a good prospect + 1st come trade deadline, he's probably worth the same next deadline, and the one after that, etc...

It makes the most sense to wait at least a few years at least so that we get a better sense of Beaulieu & Subban's potential. Plus we could potentially be contenders very quickly if Gally reaches his potential quickly and last year was merely a hiccup. Obviously if someone is willing to overpay then you have to consider it but it's unlikely at this point.
His value will only go down. Consider this. He has 1 more year on his contract as is. That gives the team who want him control (Salary aside). A team whose window of opportunity is closing quickly (ie SJ or Van etc..) could really get a lot of use from a player like Markov. Now, is it possible that Markov turns into Niedermayer and gets better with age? unlikely. He will eventually lose another step, maybe 2. He won't be that 1st line general that he is right now. He will be a 2nd pairing (maybe 3rd) when you move him years from now. IF he stays healthy and IF he produces this season, you will never get as much for him as you would on this trade deadline season. Not to say you won't get good value if you do it next year on his UFA year, but, asking price can be a lot higher when there is 1 year left on a contract after this one.

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02-05-2013, 04:19 PM
  #196
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His value will only go down. Consider this. He has 1 more year on his contract as is. That gives the team who want him control (Salary aside). A team whose window of opportunity is closing quickly (ie SJ or Van etc..) could really get a lot of use from a player like Markov. Now, is it possible that Markov turns into Niedermayer and gets better with age? unlikely. He will eventually lose another step, maybe 2. He won't be that 1st line general that he is right now. He will be a 2nd pairing (maybe 3rd) when you move him years from now. IF he stays healthy and IF he produces this season, you will never get as much for him as you would on this trade deadline season. Not to say you won't get good value if you do it next year on his UFA year, but, asking price can be a lot higher when there is 1 year left on a contract after this one.
A couple of things
With the salary cap going down it's doubtful that the asking price will be higher with 1 year remaining as opposed to being UFA.

It's not just Niedermayer, most D stay good until their late 30s especially those that play an intelligent as opposed to physical game Boyle, Gonchar, Lidstrom, Zubov, Timmonen etc... So it's unlikely there will be a significant dropoff in play from Markov over the next 3-4 years or so assuming he stays healthy.

And lastly it's getting more and more rare that teams give up good young players that have the potential be great for vetrans. Nowadays when you trade a star vetran you will get at most a late 1st, a decent prospect(Equivalent of another late 1st) and some spare parts.

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02-05-2013, 06:14 PM
  #197
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Its not the players fault that management has failed them time and time again. The Blues made the playoffs a record number of years in a row before management **** the bed. Iginla came to within 1 game of winning the cup in Calgary, otherwise management was pretty horrid in Calgary for many years. Just because they haven't won the cup, does not mean they were not big parts of the teams plan, missing pieces happen, only 1 team can win a cup each year...
not what I'm saying... at all.

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02-05-2013, 06:16 PM
  #198
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His value will only go down. Consider this. He has 1 more year on his contract as is. That gives the team who want him control (Salary aside). A team whose window of opportunity is closing quickly (ie SJ or Van etc..) could really get a lot of use from a player like Markov. Now, is it possible that Markov turns into Niedermayer and gets better with age? unlikely. He will eventually lose another step, maybe 2. He won't be that 1st line general that he is right now. He will be a 2nd pairing (maybe 3rd) when you move him years from now. IF he stays healthy and IF he produces this season, you will never get as much for him as you would on this trade deadline season. Not to say you won't get good value if you do it next year on his UFA year, but, asking price can be a lot higher when there is 1 year left on a contract after this one.
there was not a single player of Markov calibre (not even close) traded on last trade deadline.

Just sayin'

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02-05-2013, 06:24 PM
  #199
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That's exactly what people said about Koiuv.
And it would be the case if Gainey didn't lose his mind. Saku is still playing well and he should have retired a Hab.

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02-05-2013, 06:37 PM
  #200
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Ignoring contract length for a moment do you think a guy like Markov's trade value would change much over the next couple of years. If he's worth a good prospect + 1st come trade deadline, he's probably worth the same next deadline, and the one after that, etc...
It makes the most sense to wait at least a few years at least so that we get a better sense of Beaulieu & Subban's potential. Plus we could potentially be contenders very quickly if Gally reaches his potential quickly and last year was merely a hiccup. Obviously if someone is willing to overpay then you have to consider it but it's unlikely at this point.
That's a huge assumption. Mid to late 30s players you never know. You can name a bunch who aged well and then there are those who don't. And Markov's knee is definitely something to consider there.
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
So, outside the hypothetical, what are the names to throw into this?

Markov to the blueshirts for Del Zotto or Mcdonagh?

Oilers for Sam Gagner?

Unless there are some good names thrown into this it's a non starter.
McDonnaugh for Markov if we're not in the playoffs or struggling to get there? Assuming both are playing well? Yeah I'd do that. That's actually a really interesting trade because the Rangers might do it too if they were in contention.

But I'd make sure that McD was playing at the same level he was at last year. I haven't seen him this season but his numbers aren't good. Then again, that's the case with the entire Rangers team so...

I'd also try to hit up NY for their 1st. (Good luck with that though)
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And it would be the case if Gainey didn't lose his mind. Saku is still playing well and he should have retired a Hab.
The team is looking up. Everyone is excited about the future because we got a high pick last year and when Koivu left the sky didn't fall.

Just too bad we weren't smart enough to deal him when he had value. We'd be that much further ahead. And I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm slagging Saku, I'm not. But the name on the front of the jersey is more important than the name on the back and besides, we let him walk for nothing anyway.


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