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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXXI - Nobody Loves Raymond Edition

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Old
02-06-2013, 09:48 AM
  #901
PRNuck
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Originally Posted by Cashville View Post
I just posted in your trade thread, but it doesn't seem that active so I thought I'd just duplicate here. How would you guys value Kesler in a trade to Nashville? More out of curiosity than anything.
Pretty much Weber or bust. He's very important to the team.

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02-06-2013, 09:51 AM
  #902
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I just posted in your trade thread, but it doesn't seem that active so I thought I'd just duplicate here. How would you guys value Kesler in a trade to Nashville? More out of curiosity than anything.
It's not going to be pretty. Kesler is the motor that drives our team. Honestly, he may be one of those guys that is just too important to this team because when he's not playing, you really notice.

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02-06-2013, 09:51 AM
  #903
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Pretty much Weber or bust. He's very important to the team.
I wouldn't do it. I don't see anyone that's going to fill that #2C hole on this team. There's no one available out there and we wouldn't have the assets to acquire them anyway.

It would just turn us into the next Nashville Predators.

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02-06-2013, 09:53 AM
  #904
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Wilson + Josi + 1st rounder?

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02-06-2013, 09:55 AM
  #905
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Wilson + Josi + 1st rounder?
I hope this is a joke.

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02-06-2013, 09:55 AM
  #906
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I wouldn't do it. I don't see anyone that's going to fill that #2C hole on this team. There's no one available out there and we wouldn't have the assets to acquire them anyway.

It would just turn us into the next Nashville Predators.
Honestly, I'm surprised we've won as many games as we have without him. Especially with the twins' slow start.

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02-06-2013, 09:59 AM
  #907
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I wouldn't do it. I don't see anyone that's going to fill that #2C hole on this team. There's no one available out there and we wouldn't have the assets to acquire them anyway.

It would just turn us into the next Nashville Predators.
Make that trade and then buy out Booth and Ballard and sign Getz......

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02-06-2013, 10:01 AM
  #908
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Make that trade and then buy out Booth and Ballard and sign Getz......
Because we know he's going to be a UFA and we know he's going to come here? Just like we knew that Schultz would come here? Sakic? Niedermeyer? Let's gamble the future of this team on the slim chance we get the top UFA. Then when Perry and Getzlaf decide they want to be a package deal, just like Suter and Parise were, we can reminisce about how good it was when we actually had some offense.

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02-06-2013, 10:03 AM
  #909
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
Because we know he's going to be a UFA and we know he's going to come here? Just like we knew that Schultz would come here? Sakic? Niedermeyer? Let's gamble the future of this team on the slim chance we get the top UFA.
As long as we can somehow acquire his best friend on the team - that'll cement our chances of getting Getzlaf. Worked in getting Forsberg right?

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02-06-2013, 10:06 AM
  #910
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Kesler has an NTC anyway, he's not going anywhere unless he asks for it.

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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
As long as we can somehow acquire his best friend on the team - that'll cement our chances of getting Getzlaf. Worked in getting Forsberg right?
I'm sure Nonis will explore that route this summer.

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02-06-2013, 10:15 AM
  #911
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I'd prefer to see Booth go. I'm pretty sure Jensen will be starting with the Nucks next season.
I have a really hard time seeing Jensen starting with the Canucks next season.

Might he be ready to play in the NHL? Perhaps, but look at what Gillis' philosophy is, and how he's handled the rest of his high draft picks. Hodgson, Schroeder, etc.

More than anything, look at the example of Tanev. The guy was NHL ready long before he was a full-time NHL player for the Canucks. Gillis kept him stashed as waiver exempt depth for basically a full extra year under the guise of 'over-ripening' him. It makes it so the team can carry 7-8 NHL defencemen, and then stash a 9th guy (Tanev) in the minors for recall whenever needed without waiver hassles. Extends the depth an extra rung.

The same thing will happen with Jensen, unless we end up in a severe cap-crunch where that small ELC cap hit is crucial in the top-9. He'll be stashed in the minors to play 'big minutes' and 'over-ripen' while serving as the 10th 'top-9' forward essentially; available for recall whenever needed.

Agree with it or not, that seems to be a philosophy Gillis is keen on sticking to as per some mythical 'Detroit model'.

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02-06-2013, 10:22 AM
  #912
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I wouldn't do it. I don't see anyone that's going to fill that #2C hole on this team. There's no one available out there and we wouldn't have the assets to acquire them anyway.

It would just turn us into the next Nashville Predators.
I am starting to come-around to your perspective on the Weber (any highly paid number one defense-man) issue. Certainly, having a player of his abilities would be an asset, but perhaps only in a non-capped system. Is the NHL now a league where these highly paid (cap hit) players actually hinder a team's chances at success? Do their high-cost mean the rest of the team is too weak? Do the team's young (ELC) players have to contribute at a high level? Do Kassian, Schroeder, and Tanev need to play, and play well, for the Canucks to have any chance?

Your ideas about Weber (high cost player) are certainly interesting, and stimulate thought beyond the talent of the player.

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02-06-2013, 10:36 AM
  #913
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Originally Posted by Alflives View Post
I am starting to come-around to your perspective on the Weber (any highly paid number one defense-man) issue. Certainly, having a player of his abilities would be an asset, but perhaps only in a non-capped system. Is the NHL now a league where these highly paid (cap hit) players actually hinder a team's chances at success? Do their high-cost mean the rest of the team is too weak? Do the team's young (ELC) players have to contribute at a high level? Do Kassian, Schroeder, and Tanev need to play, and play well, for the Canucks to have any chance?

Your ideas about Weber (high cost player) are certainly interesting, and stimulate thought beyond the talent of the player.
Weber's cap hit isn't very high. The Ducks won a cup in a capped system with Neidermayer making the current equivalent of about 13 million per year. The issue is that Kesler's 5 million per year is one of the five best non-ELC contracts in the league. You don't give up that surplus value.

I would absolutely take someone like Weber or Suter at 8 million a season otherwise.

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02-06-2013, 10:53 AM
  #914
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Originally Posted by biturbo19 View Post
I have a really hard time seeing Jensen starting with the Canucks next season.

------ 8< ----- snip

The same thing will happen with Jensen, unless we end up in a severe cap-crunch where that small ELC cap hit is crucial in the top-9. He'll be stashed in the minors to play 'big minutes' and 'over-ripen' while serving as the 10th 'top-9' forward essentially; available for recall whenever needed.

Agree with it or not, that seems to be a philosophy Gillis is keen on sticking to as per some mythical 'Detroit model'.
The Canucks may move Booth, but I agree, it won't be in anticipation of Jensen making the team. Jensen MAY make the team, but he more likely needs a season in the AHL. They sent Schroeder down after a pretty good training camp so he could play every day and because there was a lot of depth in front of him. They sent Tanev down for the same reasons. With the depth we have on the wings, I can't see Jensen making the team next fall, but you never know.

I'm looking forward to seeing Jensen, Gaunce and Corrado with the Moose next year.

Booth - if he is moved, it will be because he has not lived up to his contract. Mostly due to injuries, but the effect is the same. When you pay a guy $4M+ per year, you expect production.

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02-06-2013, 11:05 AM
  #915
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
The Canucks may move Booth, but I agree, it won't be in anticipation of Jensen making the team. Jensen MAY make the team, but he more likely needs a season in the AHL. They sent Schroeder down after a pretty good training camp so he could play every day and because there was a lot of depth in front of him. They sent Tanev down for the same reasons. With the depth we have on the wings, I can't see Jensen making the team next fall, but you never know.

I'm looking forward to seeing Jensen, Gaunce and Corrado with the Moose next year.

Booth - if he is moved, it will be because he has not lived up to his contract. Mostly due to injuries, but the effect is the same. When you pay a guy $4M+ per year, you expect production.
We're going back to Manitoba???

Kidding aside, i agree with that regarding Booth. If he's moved, it's because he's not living up to his '2nd line' billing and price tag, and seems more likely to be replaced on the 2nd line by another somewhat established player. Gillis isn't one to gamble on a guy like Jensen filling a permanent 2nd line role right off the bat as a rookie.

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02-06-2013, 11:05 AM
  #916
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
The Canucks may move Booth, but I agree, it won't be in anticipation of Jensen making the team. Jensen MAY make the team, but he more likely needs a season in the AHL. They sent Schroeder down after a pretty good training camp so he could play every day and because there was a lot of depth in front of him. They sent Tanev down for the same reasons. With the depth we have on the wings, I can't see Jensen making the team next fall, but you never know.

I'm looking forward to seeing Jensen, Gaunce and Corrado with the Moose next year.

Booth - if he is moved, it will be because he has not lived up to his contract. Mostly due to injuries, but the effect is the same. When you pay a guy $4M+ per year, you expect production.
Gaunce has one more year of junior hockey left.

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02-06-2013, 11:08 AM
  #917
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Originally Posted by biturbo19 View Post
We're going back to Manitoba???

Kidding aside, i agree with that regarding Booth. If he's moved, it's because he's not living up to his '2nd line' billing and price tag, and seems more likely to be replaced on the 2nd line by another somewhat established player. Gillis isn't one to gamble on a guy like Jensen filling a permanent 2nd line role right off the bat as a rookie.
Who would be the established 2nd liner?

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02-06-2013, 11:09 AM
  #918
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Gaunce has one more year of junior hockey left.
Oh - I thought he was a '93.

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02-06-2013, 11:10 AM
  #919
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I like Schroeder and have since they picked him, but Jensen's trajectory is on another level, so it's not a great comparison. I think Jensen is going to be one of those rare home-run picks from a late 1st round.

At less than a million on his contract, if he's ready to go he'll be in the line-up next year, probably playing with Schroeder. The Canucks will absolutely need to cut a few corners cap-wise so they can improve the roster in other areas.

I guess we'll see, but I think he'll be ready.

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02-06-2013, 11:11 AM
  #920
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Also, as I highlight last page, there is no reason to move Booth. It's unnecessary for the cap unless a dramatic improvement (Corey Perry?) is coming to the team. He's a good possession player, a hard worker, and a net plus to the team. His 4.25 is reasonable given the minutes he'll play. This is completely separate from Jensen or anyone else.

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02-06-2013, 11:12 AM
  #921
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I have a really hard time seeing Jensen starting with the Canucks next season.

Might he be ready to play in the NHL? Perhaps, but look at what Gillis' philosophy is, and how he's handled the rest of his high draft picks. Hodgson, Schroeder, etc.

More than anything, look at the example of Tanev. The guy was NHL ready long before he was a full-time NHL player for the Canucks. Gillis kept him stashed as waiver exempt depth for basically a full extra year under the guise of 'over-ripening' him. It makes it so the team can carry 7-8 NHL defencemen, and then stash a 9th guy (Tanev) in the minors for recall whenever needed without waiver hassles. Extends the depth an extra rung.

The same thing will happen with Jensen, unless we end up in a severe cap-crunch where that small ELC cap hit is crucial in the top-9. He'll be stashed in the minors to play 'big minutes' and 'over-ripen' while serving as the 10th 'top-9' forward essentially; available for recall whenever needed.

Agree with it or not, that seems to be a philosophy Gillis is keen on sticking to as per some mythical 'Detroit model'.
Jensen's season this year is basically AHL season 1 in terms of his development. Unless he blows the socks off the coaching and management staff at training camp next year, Jensen will start the season in the AHL and will be one of the top call-ups (See Tanev last year).

I'm okay with this plan of development for Jensen as he will need to re-adjust to the North American style game and will need Arniel develop his defensive side more.

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02-06-2013, 11:13 AM
  #922
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I like Schroeder and have since they picked him, but Jensen's trajectory is on another level, so it's not a great comparison. I think Jensen is going to be one of those rare home-run picks from a late 1st round.

At less than a million on his contract, if he's ready to go he'll be in the line-up next year, probably playing with Schroeder. The Canucks will absolutely need to cut a few corners cap-wise so they can improve the roster in other areas.

I guess we'll see, but I think he'll be ready.
I like to think this too, but a GM needs to have a backup plan.

And you usually can't sign one of those in early October when your prized young player has fallen flat on his face in training camp (or struggled out of the gate in the regular season).

I'd wager that the Canucks plan for a roster without Jensen next season, and that if he either makes the team out of camp or earns a permanent spot in a call-up then they'll address that situation.

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02-06-2013, 11:17 AM
  #923
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I can see Jensen making the team briefly but Canucks want their players to be able to play 100% within the system and I don't see Jensen being there yet. He will need at least half a season to figure things out, pick up on his defensive responsibilities, learn to keep his feet moving (which was a problem last time he was in the AHL), etc. I hope he surprises, but I wouldn't count on it. (Look at Gustav Nyquist, you could argue he was 'ready' last year but he's still paying his dues a year later.)

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02-06-2013, 11:31 AM
  #924
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Who would be the established 2nd liner?
Who knows. In all likelihood, it is still Booth. But if he really doesn't live up to his cap value, it could a FA, a trade target, or even a guy like Higgins/Raymond brought back and plugged in there, and the other filling a 3rd line spot.

The point is, Gillis isn't going to pencil Jensen in to the starting lineup over the offseason. There's a chance Jensen does crack the lineup with a mindblowing camp...but it's about depth for Gillis, not just development.

He seems to take the view of...young waiver exempt players on ELC are a convenient way to extend the depth chart an extra rung. Why have 9 players for your top-9, when you can essentially have 10? There's been a pretty clear pattern with that. Although AV seems to quite like Jensen, so there is that outside chance Gillis breaks the mold for him.

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I like Schroeder and have since they picked him, but Jensen's trajectory is on another level, so it's not a great comparison. I think Jensen is going to be one of those rare home-run picks from a late 1st round.

At less than a million on his contract, if he's ready to go he'll be in the line-up next year, probably playing with Schroeder. The Canucks will absolutely need to cut a few corners cap-wise so they can improve the roster in other areas.

I guess we'll see, but I think he'll be ready.
I'm extremely high on Jensen as well. I have really high hopes for him and don't doubt that on an awful lot of teams, he'd be starting in the NHL next year...but this is Gillis we're talking about here. Who is at times, frustratingly patient...and seems to weigh added depth above nearly all else. It's why we saw the stupid waiver-wire tapdancing and Schroeder sent down to start the year, over Ebbett or Vandermeer straight off the bat. Depth > Everything for Gillis.

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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
I like to think this too, but a GM needs to have a backup plan.

And you usually can't sign one of those in early October when your prized young player has fallen flat on his face in training camp (or struggled out of the gate in the regular season).

I'd wager that the Canucks plan for a roster without Jensen next season, and that if he either makes the team out of camp or earns a permanent spot in a call-up then they'll address that situation.
It's this. I expect Gillis will plan for Jensen to be in the AHL...and if he makes a case that he absolutely cannot be left off the opening roster with a mindblowing camp, he'll deal with that when it becomes an issue. But he's not a guy to put all his eggs in the Jensen basket right off the bat, barring some sort of injury situation or a real significant cap crunch.

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02-06-2013, 11:41 AM
  #925
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Oh - I thought he was a '93.
Nope, he'll captain Canada to WJC gold next year, then go help the Wolves in their playoffs

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