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Messier overrated?

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Old
02-07-2013, 12:59 AM
  #351
revolverjgw
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Originally Posted by SaintPatrick33 View Post
He's being sarcastic.
OK, gotcha. My sarcasm meter is all out of whack because of some of the outrageously dumb and paranoid arguments in here.

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02-07-2013, 01:01 AM
  #352
Morgoth Bauglir
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OK, gotcha. My sarcasm meter is all out of whack because of some of the outrageously dumb and paranoid arguments in here.
Yeah, I feel ya I've had my eyebrows go up a couple of times myself

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02-07-2013, 01:05 AM
  #353
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Yes... "what if" Yzerman routinely took his teams as far as Messier took his. Indeed.
Hmm.

Let's see.

From 1989 (post-Gretzky Edmonton) through the end of his career, Messier's teams played 21 playoff rounds.

Messier didn't make the playoffs after 1997, so to make this even we'll do a comparison of Yzerman's playoff rounds from 1989 until 1997+ the number of playoff years missed (1). Which takes us to 1998. And 21 rounds played for Yzerman's teams, and two Cups as captain for each in the established period.

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02-07-2013, 01:23 AM
  #354
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Hmm.

Let's see.

From 1989 (post-Gretzky Edmonton) through the end of his career, Messier's teams played 21 playoff rounds.

Messier didn't make the playoffs after 1997, so to make this even we'll do a comparison of Yzerman's playoff rounds from 1989 until 1997+ the number of playoff years missed (1). Which takes us to 1998. And 21 rounds played for Yzerman's teams, and two Cups as captain for each in the established period.
Hmm, so in other words, absolutely no credit for anything before that, including five finals rind and a Conn Smythe. Sounds reasonable.

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02-07-2013, 01:39 AM
  #355
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Hmm, so in other words, absolutely no credit for anything before that, including five finals rind and a Conn Smythe. Sounds reasonable.
You said "as far as Messier took his".

That means after Gretzky was traded. Because those Oiler teams with Gretzky on them were not Messier's teams.

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02-07-2013, 01:46 AM
  #356
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
You said "as far as Messier took his".

That means after Gretzky was traded. Because those Oiler teams with Gretzky on them were not Messier's teams.
Obviously they werent Wayne's either, as proven by the 1990 Cup.

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02-07-2013, 03:38 AM
  #357
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Obviously they werent Wayne's either, as proven by the 1990 Cup.
So clearly the Wings weren't Yzerman's then, because of the 2008 Cup?

Oh, and let's not forget that the Canadiens didn't need Chris Chelios to win the 1993 Cup (although he probably would have helped a fair bit).

The argument that the Oilers team from 80 to 88 were not Wayne's is a ridiculous argument. REGARDLESS of what happened after.

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02-08-2013, 04:18 AM
  #358
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
So clearly the Wings weren't Yzerman's then, because of the 2008 Cup?

Oh, and let's not forget that the Canadiens didn't need Chris Chelios to win the 1993 Cup (although he probably would have helped a fair bit).

The argument that the Oilers team from 80 to 88 were not Wayne's is a ridiculous argument. REGARDLESS of what happened after.

The gap from 2002 to 2008 is not comprable to 1988 to 1990.

The 2008 Red wings had only five holdovers from 2002. Only Lidstrom was the holdover with a significant impact on the 2002 Cup. The 1990 Oilers returned 13 from the 1988 team.

Same with the 1986 Habs to the 1993 Habs. No need to go into detail on that one. The rosters were totally different minus Roy.

The fact remains that Messier had two Conn Smythe-worthy postseasons post-Gretzky. It took a record-setting postseason by Leetch to deny him one.

Ranford winning the Conn Smythe in 1990 is one of the biggest shams in postseason history. He won it purely for his performance in the SCF, a series in which his offense produced 20 goals in five games. Prior to the SCF, Ranford was maddingly inconsistent.

This idea that Messier's career "ended" in 1988 is just a joke, whether you or anybody feels he deserved those Harts or not.

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02-08-2013, 09:57 AM
  #359
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
The gap from 2002 to 2008 is not comprable to 1988 to 1990.

The 2008 Red wings had only five holdovers from 2002. Only Lidstrom was the holdover with a significant impact on the 2002 Cup. The 1990 Oilers returned 13 from the 1988 team.

Same with the 1986 Habs to the 1993 Habs. No need to go into detail on that one. The rosters were totally different minus Roy.

The fact remains that Messier had two Conn Smythe-worthy postseasons post-Gretzky. It took a record-setting postseason by Leetch to deny him one.

Ranford winning the Conn Smythe in 1990 is one of the biggest shams in postseason history. He won it purely for his performance in the SCF, a series in which his offense produced 20 goals in five games. Prior to the SCF, Ranford was maddingly inconsistent.

This idea that Messier's career "ended" in 1988 is just a joke, whether you or anybody feels he deserved those Harts or not.
Who said Messier's career ended in 1988? I said his best season, so much so that it's a massive outlier, was 1990. That's after 1988.

Also, Chris Osgood produced two Conn Smythe-worthy runs after the 2005 lockout. His 1998 run would have been Smythe worthy on a lot of teams, but the fact that it was compared to Vernon's from the previous year ruined any chance he had.

Chris Pronger often gets cited on this board with "He had three Smythe-worthy playoff runs" but where's the Smythe?

I'm not going to disagree, sometimes I think it goes to the wrong guy. Maybe 1990 was one of those years. At the same time, Cam Neely has a pretty strong argument on the other side in 1990. He had 28 points in 21 games with a massive physical presence, just like Messier (who had 31 in 22 - only a shade higher in PPG) and although I haven't been able to find an actual scoring log, from a youtube highlight video I found it looks like Messier may have entered the second half of the 2nd period with as few as 29 points, and it doesn't appear that Neely was involved in the single Bruins goal. Ranford also had a wonderful game (and it is reflected in the highlights) So voters may have been split between Messier vs. Neely (and also possibly Craig Simpson) while Ranford won over plenty. I would argue 1997 as a similar case; voters were likely split between Yzerman/Fedorov, possibly even Lidstrom, Konstantinov, Shanahan, and Lindros receiving significant votes. Which left the Vernon group as the winners.

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02-08-2013, 10:55 AM
  #360
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If we're talking playoff robberies how about Gretzky in 84. 9 more points than Messier, yet lost the Smythe. Or in 87 where Wayne once again lead the playoffs in scoring, yet lost to the losing goalie.

Gretzky was the MVP for all four of his cups, and would have won again in 93 if Roy didn't stand on his head.

Messier was a great playoff performer, but let's not pretend his impact on those first four cups was bigger than it was.

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02-08-2013, 11:41 AM
  #361
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Did you just say Osgood's playoff run in 1998 was potentially Smythe worthy???

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02-08-2013, 11:46 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
If we're talking playoff robberies how about Gretzky in 84. 9 more points than Messier, yet lost the Smythe. Or in 87 where Wayne once again lead the playoffs in scoring, yet lost to the losing goalie.

Gretzky was the MVP for all four of his cups, and would have won again in 93 if Roy didn't stand on his head.

Messier was a great playoff performer, but let's not pretend his impact on those first four cups was bigger than it was.
Points aren't the only determining factor.

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02-08-2013, 11:55 AM
  #363
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And how is his 1.63 ppg in 1990 a massive outlier when he had 8 other seasons over 1.31 ppg?

I should mention, that's a mark that was hit 14 times by gretzky, 11 times by lemieux (min 50 games), 9 by Dionne and 8 times by nobody else in history.

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02-08-2013, 12:01 PM
  #364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
If we're talking playoff robberies how about Gretzky in 84. 9 more points than Messier, yet lost the Smythe. Or in 87 where Wayne once again lead the playoffs in scoring, yet lost to the losing goalie.

Gretzky was the MVP for all four of his cups, and would have won again in 93 if Roy didn't stand on his head.

Messier was a great playoff performer, but let's not pretend his impact on those first four cups was bigger than it was.
Find me an Edmonton Oiler that doesn't rave about Messier being the reason they flipped a switch in the Finals. Running over Potvin, scoring a beauty on Smith, and keeping Trottier in check.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Globe, May 1984
Should they prevail, [Mark Messier] stands to reap rewards beyond the shared glory of the Cup. As the triggerman of the Oilers' offense - and the neutralizing force that has helped shackle the Islanders' superlative center, Bryan Trottier - Messier has emerged as the frontrunner for the Conn Smythe Trophy, which is awarded to the most valuable player in the playoffs.

Exploiting his Mr. Universe physique and style, Messier has led an unprcedented Edmonton attack that has throttled the Islanders in Games 1 (a 1-0 victory), 3 and 4. As Wayne Gretzky, another Edmonton center, observed, "Forechecking is the best defense." And Messier has been the Oilers' foremost forechecker.
They switched him over from Left Wing that year because they knew he could do more than just score goals with his skating ability, and he was the most dominant complete player in the Finals, even if he was ultimately outscored.


And in addition to that complete game, he also did score. A lot.

1984: 8-18-26 in 19 games
1985: 12-13-25 in 18 games
1987: 12-16-28 in 21 games
1988: 11-23-34 in 19 games
1990: 9-22-31 in 22 games
1994: 12-18-30 in 23 games

It takes more than Wayne Gretzky to win a Stanley Cup, so no, people aren't pretending Messier's impact was bigger than it was.

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02-08-2013, 03:42 PM
  #365
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Did you just say Osgood's playoff run in 1998 was potentially Smythe worthy???
I didn't want to comment, but yes, Osgood's 1998 was the standard example for a goalie carried to the Cup by his teammates until Niemi in 2010.

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02-08-2013, 04:58 PM
  #366
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is this a joke? overrated? get real. everything great said about 11 is bang on.

close thread.

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02-08-2013, 05:34 PM
  #367
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I think its fair to call him the biggest draft steal of all time

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02-08-2013, 05:34 PM
  #368
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is this a joke? overrated? get real. everything great said about 11 is bang on.

close thread.
Joking is not allowed on the HOH, sir.

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02-08-2013, 08:58 PM
  #369
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Originally Posted by RustE View Post
is this a joke? overrated? get real. everything great said about 11 is bang on.

close thread.
I'd say most of what is said about Messier in the HoH section is pretty accurate. But the media and bloggers/experts, etc. overrate him quite a bit in my opinion.

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02-09-2013, 01:10 AM
  #370
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I didn't want to comment, but yes, Osgood's 1998 was the standard example for a goalie carried to the Cup by his teammates until Niemi in 2010.
I gotta stick up for Osgood here. There was an atrocious goal in that Dallas series, an OMG game against Phoenix, and Kolzig was having one of those all-time runs, but that was a good playoff. A damn good playoff. Let's say that Phoenix game (just the second game of the playoffs) doesn't happen: He's got a .927 in that run instead of a .918. Let's not condemn a man over one game in a 22-game playoff. It's not about cumulative stats in the post-season; having one FUBAR game can kill the numbers, but in the long run, it's better to have a goalie let in seven in one game than four in one and three in another.

EDIT: But no, he wasn't a Smythe guy that year. Haha, just no. No. Wrong. No.

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02-09-2013, 01:51 AM
  #371
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I didn't want to comment, but yes, Osgood's 1998 was the standard example for a goalie carried to the Cup by his teammates until Niemi in 2010.
Niemi was average in his Cup run. Osgood wasn't perfect, but was damn good and came up huge when his team needed him to. Chicago in 2010 could have literally had any starting goaltender in the NHL and they win the Cup.

Osgood gets a lot of crap because:
a) goalies of his era tend to have large personalities
b) Osgood had a pretty strong defensive team (generally required for a Cup winner)
c) Mike Vernon (an arguable Hall of Famer at the end of his prime) was his partner in net for three years and (most specifically) Vernon started over Osgood in 1997 and won the Smythe, despite Osgood playing more regular season games and having taken the team to the WCF the year before.

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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Did you just say Osgood's playoff run in 1998 was potentially Smythe worthy???
Quote:
Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
I gotta stick up for Osgood here. There was an atrocious goal in that Dallas series, an OMG game against Phoenix, and Kolzig was having one of those all-time runs, but that was a good playoff. A damn good playoff. Let's say that Phoenix game (just the second game of the playoffs) doesn't happen: He's got a .927 in that run instead of a .918. Let's not condemn a man over one game in a 22-game playoff. It's not about cumulative stats in the post-season; having one FUBAR game can kill the numbers, but in the long run, it's better to have a goalie let in seven in one game than four in one and three in another.

EDIT: But no, he wasn't a Smythe guy that year. Haha, just no. No. Wrong. No.
It was better than Ranford's or Ward's runs that won the Smythe.

And I didn't say Osgood should have won the Smythe. I said it was Smythe-worthy, in the same sense that Messier's 1994 run was Smythe-worthy. He was #3 at best on the list.

Speaking of 1994, Osgood and Richter had comparable performances. What's your opinion of Richter?

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
And how is his 1.63 ppg in 1990 a massive outlier when he had 8 other seasons over 1.31 ppg?

I should mention, that's a mark that was hit 14 times by gretzky, 11 times by lemieux (min 50 games), 9 by Dionne and 8 times by nobody else in history.
1.63 against 1.31 is an increase of almost 25%. That's equivalent to a steady at-PPG player hitting 100 points in a random year of his career. It's an insane jump.

It's like saying Yzerman's 1.94 isn't an outlier in his (or anyone's) career.

Also, raw PPG is a wonderful stat when you're going to pimp a player who spent their prime in the 80s/early 90s and who played on a good team with good players during their prime.

It gets in the way when you start talking about players who played in the DPE, the O6, etc. and didn't have the benefit of ridiculous scoring across the board because of weak defensive play and goalies who looked like they were plucked from the stands.

If we tone it down a bit, say maybe Messier's 129 was an 86 point season, and that PPG is 1.09 instead of 1.63, he's looking at that compared to a PPG of 0.87 (instead of 1.31). That's a pretty darn big increase for one season.

Using HR's adjusted stats, Messier's top season (89-90) is 108, his next season (95-96) is 95, he hits 93, and then 91 twice. His next highest marks are 87, 85, 80, but he also has 65 in 63, and 77 in 72 as far as PPG seasons go.

By comparison:
Yzerman tops out at 128, 111, 106, and then drops to 97, 92, 91. Following that are 89, 86, 84. He also has 85 in 64 games, and 79 in 75, 75 in 58, 56 in 54, 55 in 52.

Both players have a noticeable peak offensive season. Messier's is even more noticeable if you use raw numbers instead of adjusted stats. He never approached that level offensively over a full season outside of that season. Not even close.

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02-09-2013, 01:57 AM
  #372
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
It gets in the way when you start talking about players who played in the DPE, the O6, etc. and didn't have the benefit of ridiculous scoring across the board because of weak defensive play and goalies who looked like they were plucked from the stands.
Oh, you mean goaltenders didn't dress up like the Michelin Man and teams that didn't trap all freaking night long?

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02-09-2013, 10:25 AM
  #373
Dennis Bonvie
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I think its fair to call him the biggest draft steal of all time
How about Nick Lidstrom?

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02-09-2013, 07:27 PM
  #374
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Speaking of 1994, Osgood and Richter had comparable performances. What's your opinion of
Good enough to win, but nothing special. Much more important than Osgood was.

Quote:
1.63 against 1.31 is an increase of almost 25%. That's equivalent to a steady at-PPG player hitting 100 points in a random year of his career. It's an insane jump.
Yes, his best season is better than his ninth best, by a 25% margin. Wow, what an outlier! Bravo!

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02-09-2013, 08:00 PM
  #375
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
So clearly the Wings weren't Yzerman's then, because of the 2008 Cup?

Oh, and let's not forget that the Canadiens didn't need Chris Chelios to win the 1993 Cup (although he probably would have helped a fair bit).

The argument that the Oilers team from 80 to 88 were not Wayne's is a ridiculous argument. REGARDLESS of what happened after.
While I'm a firm believer that teams win cups, I totally agree with this statement.

The leadership issue with the Moose is vastly over rated IMO, an all time great anywhere between 20-30ish depending on one's metric.

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