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Alexander Burmistrov's potential and role on the team?

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02-07-2013, 09:55 AM
  #1
MajorPain
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Alexander Burmistrov's potential and role on the team?

I'd just like to get some input on Alexander Burmistrov. What's his current role with the team (3rd liner?). What type of potential do you see in him?

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02-07-2013, 10:35 AM
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garret9
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Originally Posted by MajorPain View Post
I'd just like to get some input on Alexander Burmistrov. What's his current role with the team (3rd liner?). What type of potential do you see in him?
There are a few threads dedicated exclusively to him, most very recent that would answer uour questions.

Summary: mixed feelings within fans. Some think he's a defensive third liner without much offensive upside and will be stagnant for his career instead of develope. Others find that he's young with already exceptional defense and flashes of offense, which could point out to him being a high quality 2C.

As to how the team currently views him, he's spent all but the last game on the 3C but was given a promotion to 2C by Noel.

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02-07-2013, 10:41 AM
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There's a thread started by someone that says that Burmi's been the best player on the team this year.

It might have been in jest, I don't know. I don't think he's been nearly one of the best players this year, but he has been good IMO.

Opinions on Burmistrov are varied. I think he's been excellent defensively, very good at pushing the play into the offensive zone, and when given two offensive line-mates, has looked very good. IMO, Burmistrov has a role on this team in the near future as a secondary scorer / primary defender type. Hopefully something in the mold of a Jere Lehtinen. 40-50 point seasons, goals from the high teens to high twenties, and elite defense.

Others aren't as sold that his offense will ever get there, or that maybe he's not large enough for our current organization's vision.

He still needs work to get there though. He's got a lot of flash, and good puck and skating skills. He needs to start putting those towards results on the score-sheet. But he's only had sporadic opportunities on the top 2 lines, so it's tough to get a true read on where his offensive potential lies ATM.

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02-07-2013, 12:02 PM
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Stopthebooing
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Burmi needs to learn to read the play better in the offensive zone. His only goal, and most of his scoring opportunities this year are huge individual efforts. He somehow needs to find a way to get easier scoring chances, and find "soft spots" on the ice. At his size, if he's gonna rely on working the corners and boards for his chances, he'll never produce offensively.
Love his defense, but to be worthy of a top 10 draft selection he needs to take his offense up a notch.

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02-07-2013, 12:06 PM
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He is currently the Jets #2C, but he has been bouncing between #2 and #3 for a while.

He is currently a very good #3C/RW and PK specialist although he leaves something to be desired on the dot. I am confident that he will improve his draws over time, so the big question is how much offense does he have in his game.

If he can find his stride offensively he should become a very good 2-way #2C/RW and he may have first line upside. If he doesn't improve a lick (doubtful) he will be a very valuable 2nd and 3rd line tweener and PK specialist.

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02-07-2013, 12:11 PM
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He's at worst a PKing third line center with excellent defense. That's his floor because thats what he is currently. He just got moved into our top 6 last game and I guess we'll see what he does with his chance. He's 21 so he could still easily develop in ways we don't anticipate.

I'd perfer him on the PP in Kanes spot. I wanna see what Burmi can do with more open space.

He's really good at stealing passes too. Last game he stole a pass, made a bad pass to turn it over then stole it back right after. It was all in one shift.

To the guy that said he needs to improve to justify his draft position, incorrect. Statistically speaking, getting a good third line center that PKs is a good pick.

He was drafted 8th oa. I don't think there were 7 better picks. Hall/Seguin/Gubrandon (maybe) / Skinner/ Fowler / Tarasenko.

Only person that went after him that I'd trade him right now for is Tarasenko. And everyone knew he had top3 talent only question about him was the Russian factor


Last edited by JetsHomer: 02-07-2013 at 12:17 PM.
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02-07-2013, 12:33 PM
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I think he could be a 20-25g with about 35-40a, if everything goes right. I think he could be a great second line center in the same mold and style as Kesler and Bergeron.

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02-07-2013, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MajorPain View Post
I'd just like to get some input on Alexander Burmistrov. What's his current role with the team (3rd liner?). What type of potential do you see in him?
His ceiling in my opinion is winning the Selke Trophy as best defensive forward. I think he is that good. What potential I realistically seeing is a PK specialist who can pot 50 points with the Jets in an 80+ game season. If he reaches that I would be satisfied. I think he has all the skills to play a playmaking role with Kane and Wheeler and would compliment them well. I think he can be a good power play option. If he can reach that level he will be one of the highest in minutes played due to his advanced defensive skills.

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02-07-2013, 12:37 PM
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I dont think he'll ever get that many goals. I've never been impressed by his shot. Doesn't seem terribly accurate or strong.

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02-07-2013, 12:53 PM
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Flair Hay
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Yeah his shot is below average, as is his offensive vision ATM. His puck skills, elusiveness and penalty killing are already well above your average 3rd liner and bordering on great. He is also by far the best takeaway thief on the team but he's also up there in giveaways.

I think playing him on the 4th line at 18 stymied his offensive game. since he's been a fixture on the third line. Occasionally he flashes deking ability that only a dozen or so guys in the league can manage. Strong as hell for a 21 year old Russian though.

Recently earning the 2nd line Center role should bode well for him as positionally he is so sound for a player his age.

In summary, he's a Datsyuk-lite that struggled after being rushed to the NHL at 18 and the last 2/3 of last season. It looks like he is slowly gaining confidence however and it shows in his play. If he can work on his shot in the off-season, he would have literally everything you could want in a 2nd line C at 21-22 years old.

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02-07-2013, 01:35 PM
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To the guy that said he needs to improve to justify his draft position, incorrect. Statistically speaking, getting a good third line center that PKs is a good pick.

If guys picked in the late top 10 aren't expected to contribute as 1st or at mininmum 2nd line players, or top 4 defensemen...then who is expected to fill these roles in the NHL?

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02-07-2013, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by bhay1987 View Post
Yeah his shot is below average, as is his offensive vision ATM. His puck skills, elusiveness and penalty killing are already well above your average 3rd liner and bordering on great. He is also by far the best takeaway thief on the team but he's also up there in giveaways.

I think playing him on the 4th line at 18 stymied his offensive game. since he's been a fixture on the third line. Occasionally he flashes deking ability that only a dozen or so guys in the league can manage. Strong as hell for a 21 year old Russian though.

Recently earning the 2nd line Center role should bode well for him as positionally he is so sound for a player his age.

In summary, he's a Datsyuk-lite that struggled after being rushed to the NHL at 18 and the last 2/3 of last season. It looks like he is slowly gaining confidence however and it shows in his play. If he can work on his shot in the off-season, he would have literally everything you could want in a 2nd line C at 21-22 years old.
I would agree with everything, especially the highlighted statements.
Kid still needs to put on some more size, he is 6'1 which is not bad for height and ripped, but could use that man size muscle that will come in the next couple years.
Once he has more lean muscle mass I think we will see a stronger shot and even more gritty play by him. He may be NHL experienced, but he was rushed too early. Now he is coming into his own, and perhaps we will see more production from him as he plays with more dangerous wingers.
Every time I see him pressing the opponents I imagine Burmi saying "(PlayerX), I am going to steals your girlfriends and puck too." Loosely based on that dude from Cheers talking to Woody.

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02-07-2013, 01:43 PM
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JetsHomer
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Originally Posted by Stopthebooing View Post
To the guy that said he needs to improve to justify his draft position, incorrect. Statistically speaking, getting a good third line center that PKs is a good pick.

If guys picked in the late top 10 aren't expected to contribute as 1st or at mininmum 2nd line players, or top 4 defensemen...then who is expected to fill these roles in the NHL?
Go look at a list of 8th oa since whenever. A whole lotta busts and then some good players. You don't have to be picked in the top 10 to be a top player.

If you expect a first line impact player after pick 5 statistically speaking you're going to be disappointed more often than not.

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02-07-2013, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
Go look at a list of 8th oa since whenever. A whole lotta busts and then some good players. You don't have to be picked in the top 10 to be a top player.

If you expect a first line impact player after pick 5 statistically speaking you're going to be disappointed more often than not.
And HOW.

Number 8 is actually like the black sheep of the top 10...when i did my study it had the lowest success rate of being top 6/4....but that's likely just an anomaly.

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02-07-2013, 01:59 PM
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The second-line spot is his to lose IMO. He played very well between Little and Ladd last game. His offensive positioning still needs some work and he's still a turnover machine while entering the offensive zone but I think he's solid enough defensively to hold off Antro (just as limited offensively) and Little (much better at RW).

His potential is nearly impossible to predict. The flashes of brilliance we see from him controlling the puck are too good to overlook, as are his takeaways in the neutral zone and his willing to play the body despite his small size. I do think he'll be a late bloomer and that his development won't be linear (or even a continuous upwards progression) - prepare to be frustrated if you think otherwise. A Selke-candidate-caliber second-line center is probably a reasonable assumption for his peak - I think he'll become a strong puck possession player who can control the game at both ends of the ice but he'd have to be paired with some strong finishers to surpass 70 pts in a year. He'll never be a pure offensive player and it's clear that's not what he models his game after.

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02-07-2013, 02:20 PM
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Flair Hay
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Hopefully his confidence keeps increasing offensively, he doesn't need to be a 70 point guy to be as good as he can be with our offensive defense. If e just keeps getting better and better at his role as #2C he could really be a key player for us down the road.

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02-07-2013, 03:58 PM
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Stopthebooing
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
If you expect a first line impact player after pick 5 statistically speaking you're going to be disappointed more often than not.
Ok, so by that logic, we should just expect our top 10 picks to be solid role players, and hope to find our top line guys through lucky picks in the other rounds?

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02-07-2013, 04:03 PM
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JetsHomer
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Originally Posted by Stopthebooing View Post
Ok, so by that logic, we should just expect our top 10 picks to be solid role players, and hope to find our top line guys through lucky picks in the other rounds?
We should hope our top picks become impact players, but not expect it. A role player at 8th is statistically a good pick.

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02-07-2013, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Stopthebooing View Post
Ok, so by that logic, we should just expect our top 10 picks to be solid role players, and hope to find our top line guys through lucky picks in the other rounds?
No. We should be happy to pull solid NHLers consistently. Busts happen a lot.

There is nothing wrong with wanting more, but if you expect it you will be disappointed fairly often.

If the Jets get 3 full time NHLers out Burmi, Scheiflele and Trouba, then they are either doing really really well in the draft or it is a reflection of some deep draft classes.

To further that, a first line forward (Kane), possible top pairing D (Bogo) and a possible 2nd line C (Burmi) is a great run of success in the first round if they actually hit those marks. If they can keep that up with Scheifele and Trouba. They Jets will be in excellent shape moving forward and they will have drafted better than most in those early slots.

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02-07-2013, 04:57 PM
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Burmi looks stronger to me this year and is playing a more mature (and meaner) game. I disagree about his only outlook is to be the Selki type player. I think he has offensive upside and is going to click with the right winger and be an offensive force.

He's a different type Russkie.

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02-07-2013, 05:14 PM
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http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=634928

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=566695

http://www.sportsnet.ca/fanfuel/2012...sidney_crosby/

http://www.sportsnet.ca/fanfuel/2012...nder_ovechkin/

2003 is widely considered one of the best drafts ever so I'll leave that out

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/draft...visiting_2002/

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=566987

http://www.sportsnet.ca/fanfuel/2012...0_nhl_redraft/

I think those give you a pretty good idea of how much of crapshoot the draft is after the first couple of picks in terms of how players turn out relative to where they were selected.

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02-07-2013, 05:21 PM
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No. We should be happy to pull solid NHLers consistently. Busts happen a lot.

There is nothing wrong with wanting more, but if you expect it you will be disappointed fairly often.

If the Jets get 3 full time NHLers out Burmi, Scheiflele and Trouba, then they are either doing really really well in the draft or it is a reflection of some deep draft classes.

To further that, a first line forward (Kane), possible top pairing D (Bogo) and a possible 2nd line C (Burmi) is a great run of success in the first round if they actually hit those marks. If they can keep that up with Scheifele and Trouba. They Jets will be in excellent shape moving forward and they will have drafted better than most in those early slots.

mmhmm.. there is definitly a fairly large disconnect between reasonable expectations, and knocking them out of the park.

the odds are heavily against all three of burmi schiefele and trouba developing into top 6 players. The odds are against any of them becoming more then that.

A lot of people really don't grasp how unlikely you are to grab true impact players outside of the top 5 picks. If it were as easy as some seem to think it is, they're wouldn't be room for anyone over 30 in this league.

the average rate of success beyond third line/defensive specialist of picks 6-30 is 32%. Even if you drop the bottom 5 picks and just take 6-26, your looking at a 37% chance of being more then a third line.

42% across picks 6-15.

Remember, these aren't even the numbers for getting Top line players, let alone all stars, these are for capable 2nd line/2nd pairing players.

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