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OT: Northeast US Losing Population, Growth In Sun Belt, West, South

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02-08-2013, 07:29 PM
  #1
sawchuk1971
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OT: Northeast US Losing Population, Growth In Sun Belt, West, South

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-st...194007689.html

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Moving company United Van Lines released its 36th annual study of customer migration patterns, analyzing a total of 125,000 moves across the 48 continental states in 2012. The study provides an up-to-date, representative snapshot of overarching moving patterns in the U.S., and reveals a mass exodus from the Northeast.

At No. 1, New Jersey has the highest ratio of people moving out compared to those moving in. Of the 6,300 total moves tracked in the state last year, 62% were outbound.

In fact, most of the top-10 states people are leaving are located in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions, including Illinois (60%), New York (58%), Michigan (58%), Maine (56%), Connecticut (56%) and Wisconsin (55%). According to Stoll, this reflects a consistent trend of migration from the Frost Belt to the Sun Belt states based on a combination of causes.

it mentions four states (south carolina, north carolina, florida, arizona) are high population growth....

three of those states have NHL franchises.....fans who grew up watching hockey in rust/frost belt states are moving to sunbelt state for job opportunities...

will the migration of fans, who lived in frost/rust belt states, to sunbelt states strengthen the fanbases in those markets? is it happening now?

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02-08-2013, 07:47 PM
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There are a few things that came to my mind just seeing the title of the thread.

1. The automotive sector crashing recently would have something to do with this.

2. The majority of the population is getting up to or already at the retirement age and may be relocating south in the sunbelt/california for the remainder of their days.

Those are the two main reasons that came to my mind anyways.

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02-08-2013, 07:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tp71 View Post
There are a few things that came to my mind just seeing the title of the thread.

1. The automotive sector crashing recently would have something to do with this.

2. The majority of the population is getting up to or already at the retirement age and may be relocating south in the sunbelt/california for the remainder of their days.

Those are the two main reasons that came to my mind anyways.
Cheap airconditioning.

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02-08-2013, 09:37 PM
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People are acting like this is new? This was the case after how many censuses? (just shuffle the order of the states losing the most)

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02-08-2013, 09:44 PM
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It's like Atlantic Canadians moving to GTA? No surprise.

For fanbase growth, it could contribute, but it will not be the factor that can stabilize the sunbelt teams.

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02-08-2013, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Glacial View Post
People are acting like this is new? This was the case after how many censuses? (just shuffle the order of the states losing the most)
Exactly. The Midwest and Northeast have been losing residents to the South and West for decades.

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02-08-2013, 10:28 PM
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Its expensive as hell to live here

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02-08-2013, 11:23 PM
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2020 will still be in missouri, but i wonder whether 2030 will be in kansas, nebraska, or arkansas.

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02-08-2013, 11:36 PM
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Originally Posted by JetsFlyHigh View Post
It's like Atlantic Canadians moving to GTA? No surprise.

For fanbase growth, it could contribute, but it will not be the factor that can stabilize the sunbelt teams.
I beg to differ. I think we're only one phase into this massive move from the north to the south. In 20 more years I think it'll be entirely different.

I've stressed this matter several times on here already. It's important for the NHL to keep a presence in the south. They'll just be going back one day when the population shifts fully. Also, this is why the Big Ten is looking at taking ACC teams from the southeast - they want to have a population footprint to draw off of in the future.

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02-08-2013, 11:38 PM
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Ummm, what happens when global warming comes and the south starts to feel like the depths of hell? Are these people going to move back? Will Miami stay above the water even?

If I lived in the US, I would be horrified if I had to live anywhere but the Northeast.

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02-09-2013, 12:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tp71 View Post
There are a few things that came to my mind just seeing the title of the thread.

1. The automotive sector crashing recently would have something to do with this.

2. The majority of the population is getting up to or already at the retirement age and may be relocating south in the sunbelt/california for the remainder of their days.

Those are the two main reasons that came to my mind anyways.
10,000 Baby Boomers retire every day

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Originally Posted by danishh View Post
2020 will still be in missouri, but i wonder whether 2030 will be in kansas, nebraska, or arkansas.
Interesting that the trend appears to have been decelerating since the 80s or so. Most rapid rate of change was during the 19th century coinciding with the growth of railroads.


Last edited by OthmarAmmann: 02-09-2013 at 12:11 AM.
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02-09-2013, 12:28 AM
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Originally Posted by RBR View Post
Ummm, what happens when global warming comes and the south starts to feel like the depths of hell? Are these people going to move back? Will Miami stay above the water even?

If I lived in the US, I would be horrified if I had to live anywhere but the Northeast.
We have four climate changes each year. Besides, in the late 1970s Newsweek and others were lamenting the coming of a giant, sudden "Global Cooling." Has it happened? Nope. Nor will us in the south turn into ignited charcoal brickettes anytime soon.

People are moving to the south because of better taxes and nicer weather, as well as a better business environment. Period. Americans are voting with their feet and they are leaving anti-business states with terrible weather for low-tax, better cost-of-living, pro-business, nice-weather states.

I'd be horrified to live in the Northeast.

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02-09-2013, 04:07 AM
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Ah. It seems there was some editorializing in the OP. New Mexico rated 5th highest in outbound moves, while the high inbound states were NV, SC, NC, and OR.



I wouldn't mind leaving the Northeast, but there are limited opportunities in my line of work in other regions.

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02-09-2013, 04:16 AM
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Originally Posted by OKCDevil View Post
We have four climate changes each year. Besides, in the late 1970s Newsweek and others were lamenting the coming of a giant, sudden "Global Cooling." Has it happened? Nope. Nor will us in the south turn into ignited charcoal brickettes anytime soon.

People are moving to the south because of better taxes and nicer weather, as well as a better business environment. Period. Americans are voting with their feet and they are leaving anti-business states with terrible weather for low-tax, better cost-of-living, pro-business, nice-weather states.

I'd be horrified to live in the Northeast.
There's also "good place to wait for death". One thing the Forbes piece didn't disclose was the demographics of the people moving.

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02-09-2013, 04:24 AM
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Originally Posted by OKCDevil View Post
Besides, in the late 1970s Newsweek and others were lamenting the coming of a giant, sudden "Global Cooling." Has it happened? Nope. Nor will us in the south turn into ignited charcoal brickettes anytime soon.
I don't know that I'd juxtapose one article in Newsweek with the consensus of just about the entire scientific community nowadays.

That being said, I'm not sure I've ever heard of people moving away from somewhere to get away from the heat. Not in any significant numbers anyway. People tend to like hot weather much more than cold weather (which I can't relate to... I come alive every winter and suffer through every summer!).

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02-09-2013, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by tp71 View Post
There are a few things that came to my mind just seeing the title of the thread.

1. The automotive sector crashing recently would have something to do with this.
The automotive industry has been moving south for decades. Even if the industry was highly prosperous at the moment, Detroit would still be hurting because govt. policy there has been chasing away business. If the NE became business friendly, these numbers would turn around instantly. The area is sitting upon the Saudi Arabia of natural gas which could cheaply power the abundant idle industrial sites in the region.

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02-09-2013, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Ugmo View Post
I don't know that I'd juxtapose one article in Newsweek with the consensus of just about the entire scientific community nowadays.

That being said, I'm not sure I've ever heard of people moving away from somewhere to get away from the heat. Not in any significant numbers anyway. People tend to like hot weather much more than cold weather (which I can't relate to... I come alive every winter and suffer through every summer!).
Well, it was more than just Newsweek. That was just one example The cooling crowd was just as big and loud as the warming crowd was in the 90s/early 2000s and the catch all "climate change" crowd is now.

And I'm with you on the winter/summer thing. I want to live in a place like Colorado someday where the winters are a little cooler than Oklahoma.

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02-09-2013, 10:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tp71 View Post
There are a few things that came to my mind just seeing the title of the thread.

1. The automotive sector crashing recently would have something to do with this.

2. The majority of the population is getting up to or already at the retirement age and may be relocating south in the sunbelt/california for the remainder of their days.

Those are the two main reasons that came to my mind anyways.
People moving from the northeast to the south or west is a very common trend going way back before you or I were even born. One very common group of people doing this are those who are very young and have this idea in their head that the grass is greener somewhere else.

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02-09-2013, 10:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Glacial View Post
People are acting like this is new? This was the case after how many censuses? (just shuffle the order of the states losing the most)
This.

By the way, I just want to point out that the study doesn't provide any evidence that "the Northeast [is] losing population" as the OP's thread title suggests. The data from United Van Lines is about domestic net migration. The NYC area has long been an immigration hot spot -- NY and NJ have long had high immigration numbers (still top 5 in the US according to this) that offset their negative net migration numbers. Michigan and maybe Rhode Island are the only states that are actually losing population according to census numbes.

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02-09-2013, 11:08 AM
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This.

By the way, I just want to point out that the study doesn't provide any evidence that "the Northeast [is] losing population" as the OP's thread title suggests. The data from United Van Lines is about domestic net migration. The NYC area has long been an immigration hot spot -- NY and NJ have long had high immigration numbers (still top 5 in the US according to this) that offset their negative net migration numbers. Michigan and maybe Rhode Island are the only states that are actually losing population according to census numbes.
Yea but that growth is only in certain cities/town that only the rich from around the globe can afford to move into.

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02-09-2013, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by JetsFlyHigh View Post
It's like Atlantic Canadians moving to GTA? No surprise.

For fanbase growth, it could contribute, but it will not be the factor that can stabilize the sunbelt teams.
More like ontarians moving to alberta.

Anyhow this is absolutely nothing knew, it`s been like this for near a century. It`s always been cheaper to move out west.

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02-09-2013, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by OKCDevil View Post
We have four climate changes each year. Besides, in the late 1970s Newsweek and others were lamenting the coming of a giant, sudden "Global Cooling." Has it happened? Nope. Nor will us in the south turn into ignited charcoal brickettes anytime soon.

People are moving to the south because of better taxes and nicer weather, as well as a better business environment. Period. Americans are voting with their feet and they are leaving anti-business states with terrible weather for low-tax, better cost-of-living, pro-business, nice-weather states.

I'd be horrified to live in the Northeast.
You do realize water table issues are gonna cause a severe problem in southern market real estate.

The projections are there, unless american`s stop showering something will have to change.


Anyhow I think far too many people get over hyped on living in the sun belt.

It`s an area that can managed easy growth, but understand that this easy growth is a dependent on constant growth.

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02-09-2013, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by OKCDevil View Post
I beg to differ. I think we're only one phase into this massive move from the north to the south. In 20 more years I think it'll be entirely different.

I've stressed this matter several times on here already. It's important for the NHL to keep a presence in the south. They'll just be going back one day when the population shifts fully. Also, this is why the Big Ten is looking at taking ACC teams from the southeast - they want to have a population footprint to draw off of in the future.
What do you mean when the population shifts fully? The future is unclear, especially when it comes to opportunities. South is not a sure greener pasture, well it is now. But it doesn't mean growth in the south is equal to the population in the north shrinks.

As an immigrant to North America, I know for a fact that yes, opportunities attract people, but living in a populous city is a lot harder especially in jobs. I was born in a +40 million city and immigrated to a city with 750K, and honestly, opportunities are better in a smaller city. Movements to the south is only conditional and not permanent.

Let's not assume that every person from NE is a hockey fan, and let's stay clear of population = viability in hockey. 'Cause clearly it's not.

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02-09-2013, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by JetsFlyHigh View Post
What do you mean when the population shifts fully? The future is unclear, especially when it comes to opportunities. South is not a sure greener pasture, well it is now. But it doesn't mean growth in the south is equal to the population in the north shrinks.

As an immigrant to North America, I know for a fact that yes, opportunities attract people, but living in a populous city is a lot harder especially in jobs. I was born in a +40 million city and immigrated to a city with 750K, and honestly, opportunities are better in a smaller city. Movements to the south is only conditional and not permanent.

Let's not assume that every person from NE is a hockey fan, and let's stay clear of population = viability in hockey. 'Cause clearly it's not.
The future is ineed unclear. But the recent past and present sure aren't. The great manufacturing belt of the US upper midwest is long dead and gone and, for the past 30 years, has resulted in a lack of opportunities and hence people are moving to where the jobs are, which is not the Big Ten region. The South and Texas are the big destinations now and in the near future for a multitude of reasons. And I'm not just talking the mega cities like Atlanta, Houston and Dallas. I'm talking places like Oklahoma City, Nashville and Charlotte, which is bordering on becoming a major city in its own right, to Albuquerque and the like.

The US has always had a major focus on the upper midwest, from the post-Civil War days up through the 1970s. All I'm saying is the country is trending to the south and states such as NY, Michigan, Ohio, etc., will continue to lose Congressional representation over the course of the next 50 years while southern states will add seats. That's a big indicator.

As for the 40+ million part... are you from Tokyo? That place is 32 million or so and is the largest metro area in the world. Just curious on that part.

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02-09-2013, 07:49 PM
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Low tax states attract growth of mature and dying industries. Idaho isn't exactly thriving right now because the people who are offering jobs there are there for the cheap labor... which, for instance, Micron imports from Eastern Europe and other outliers.

People who invest in education and an environment that actually fosters innovation are the good long term bets for growth. Portland has the chance to be there, though it's not quite the hot spots that Silicon Valley continues to be and Seattle advances.

Taxes may or may not be bad from place to place, but many people are trying to figure out how to make gasoline less of an expense. Taxes aren't everything, and most businesses don't actually have the same expense portfolio that those who move exhibit.

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