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02-08-2013, 01:43 PM
  #26
Grind
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Originally Posted by Winnipeg Jets View Post
It's scary to note that Pavelec is signed till 2017 with an annual cap hit of almost 4m, in his last year he's making almost 5m in salary. I still think it was a bit of a mistake signing him on potential. What the Jets should have done was extend him a 2 year offer as a try-out and work on a contract according to his play in those two years. Maybe there was a stigma that the Jets can't retain top talent so ownership wanted to get a longterm deal done? Who knows.
problem is at the end of that 2 years he's a UFA and can go where he pleases.

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02-08-2013, 01:43 PM
  #27
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The best way to get a world class goalie is to hire Ken Hithcock as your coach. Works every time.
Well, we've got Hitchcock Jr. Why isn't it working!?

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02-08-2013, 01:44 PM
  #28
Hank Chinaski
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
The best way to get a world class goalie is to hire Ken Hithcock as your coach. Works every time.


Steve Mason, Pascal Leclaire, Brian Elliott, Roman Cechmanek, Robert Esche. Yeah, that does throw a little bit of a wrench into the "save % is all on the goalie" theory.

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02-08-2013, 01:59 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post


Steve Mason, Pascal Leclaire, Brian Elliott, Roman Cechmanek, Robert Esche. Yeah, that does throw a little bit of a wrench into the "save % is all on the goalie" theory.
there is a really good study if i could find it.

essentially, the absolute most a "system" has ever helped a goalie by save % was like .01 or .015

essentially, a system can make a good goalie great, but it usually struggles to make a bad goalie good.

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02-08-2013, 02:21 PM
  #30
Hank Chinaski
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
there is a really good study if i could find it.

essentially, the absolute most a "system" has ever helped a goalie by save % was like .01 or .015

essentially, a system can make a good goalie great, but it usually struggles to make a bad goalie good.
Yeah, I wasn't being fully serious there, I more just thought it was clever comment from Le Golie, especially in light of the debate we've had about how dependent save percentage is on defensive ability.

It is interesting that all those goalies have had career years under Hitchcock, but I don't really believe that proves or disproves anything.

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02-08-2013, 02:23 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
The best way to get a world class goalie is to hire Ken Hithcock as your coach. Works every time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post


Steve Mason, Pascal Leclaire, Brian Elliott, Roman Cechmanek, Robert Esche. Yeah, that does throw a little bit of a wrench into the "save % is all on the goalie" theory.
Read this: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/17/goal...-ken-hitchcock

The numbers suggest a .004 improvement on average. That isn't much.

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02-08-2013, 02:36 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Read this: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/17/goal...-ken-hitchcock

The numbers suggest a .004 improvement on average. That isn't much.
thanks my .01 was going off memory, and aparently a very unreliable memory.

that's the exact study i was referring too

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02-08-2013, 03:25 PM
  #33
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It's good to have competition, and have goalies pushing each other to start... but we don't have enough depth yet to risk a first round pick on a goalie.

Until we have guys forcing their way on the team... we gotta build up our forward depth. If we had depth, I would blow out the whole third line, send them all packing (Poni, Antro, Wellwood).

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02-09-2013, 04:15 AM
  #34
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I have a strong hunch that whoever ends up with Fucale is going to be disappointed. It seems like his play might be strongly influenced by a ridiculously talented team in front of him.

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02-09-2013, 10:24 AM
  #35
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He sure got light up last night vs Moncton. Did anyone checkout that game last night on Sportsnet?

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02-09-2013, 10:42 AM
  #36
Bob E
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Originally Posted by bigplay41 View Post
He sure got light up last night vs Moncton. Did anyone checkout that game last night on Sportsnet?
I saw the 1st and 2nd periods. Fucale sure looked leaky last night.

Any word on the seriousness of MacKinnon's leg injury?

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02-09-2013, 11:09 AM
  #37
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If we really think we need another goalie prospect we should just take one in a later round. One that will keep playing where they are for about 2 more years before he even goes pro and then maybe AHL or ECHL. You know, a 4 or more year project.

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02-09-2013, 11:22 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
The best way to get a world class goalie is to hire Ken Hithcock as your coach. Works every time.
Ken Hitchcock on average has only improved goaltending by 0.004 SV%...

That would put Pavelec from 37th 0.885 to 32nd 0.889 (on average)...

Good defense/defensive-systems improve SA and GAA (as noted by STL currently being the lowest SA/60 team in the NHL), not really sv% which is more reflective on the goalie.

The same thing is true of all coaches like this... Tippett (another similarly thought of coach) for example improves goalies by average of 0.006%.



Just to give some ideas of how these effects work... 2012-13 season so far:
5v5 SA/60:
STL = 21.7 (1st)
LAK = 22.9 (2nd)
PHX = 26.1 (6th)
WPG = 28.7 (19th... and improving each game)

5v5 SV%:
WPG = 900 (21st)
STL = 898 (24th)
PHX = 892 (26th)
LAK = 876 (30th)

... It's a small sample size but it shows you how defensive systems don't really affect the goaltending that much, but shots against. A goalie who lets in the same percentage of shots but faces less will have better GA, win more games, and then look better, basic math.
Now I specifically showed those teams for two reasons:
1) I wanted to show how small sample size any goalie can do bad, as 3 of those teams should improve past us and also I think we'll have better than 0.900 before the season is up (not sure by how much though)
2) I wanted to show that 5v5 our team hasn't been that bad, both team metrics (SA) and goalie metrics (SV%), and really it's the PK that's killing us, which IMO is doing worse than it should mostly out of luck...


Last edited by garret9: 02-09-2013 at 12:14 PM.
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Old
02-09-2013, 11:31 AM
  #39
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Theres only one person from the mooseheads I want on the team and thats Drouin . The kid is pure gold, and it would be sick to have him on a line with scheifele considering they were roommates/linemates at the WJC (not to mention his ridiculous talent).
I had a weird dream the other night that we picked #2 overall..

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Old
02-09-2013, 11:53 AM
  #40
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Would love Drouin. He will likely be the 3rd player picked id have to think. I hope were not drafting there based on standings, but worse comes to worse it looks like a top 5 pick this year is almost a guaranteed star

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02-09-2013, 01:11 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
If we really think we need another goalie prospect we should just take one in a later round. One that will keep playing where they are for about 2 more years before he even goes pro and then maybe AHL or ECHL. You know, a 4 or more year project.
Like I've said, they should sign free agent goalie Eric Hartzell or draft someone like Marcus Hogberg, Juuse Saros or Jake Patterson in the 5th round or later. Of the 3 draft eligible, I think I'd prefer Hogberg. Patterson may be more a product of playing for power house London.

Hartzell could be a beauty of a free agent signing and would likely be pushing for the back-up position within a couple years after some AHL seasoning.

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02-09-2013, 02:07 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by GoldenJet89 View Post
Would love Drouin. He will likely be the 3rd player picked id have to think. I hope were not drafting there based on standings, but worse comes to worse it looks like a top 5 pick this year is almost a guaranteed star
I wonder if Chevy would package a couple of the 2s and 3s to move ip for a guy they really want.

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02-09-2013, 04:44 PM
  #43
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Goalie is probably the easiest position to fill through UFA and drafting one at 18 with a high pick is just about the biggest risk you can take. We have too many holes IMO to use a 1st on a goalie.

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02-12-2013, 01:24 AM
  #44
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I wonder if Chevy would package a couple of the 2s and 3s to move ip for a guy they really want.
probably. it may take more tho. i guess it depends where we draft

if were say 8-10 range. our first, a second and a third might get us a high pick

if were closer to the 20 range (arguments sake) it would probably take a whole lot more

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