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Old
02-09-2013, 03:47 AM
  #1
fedfed
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Grade prospects by probability of making the NHL

Please grade Caps prospects by probability of making the NHL (not overall talent).
A = >80% probability
B = 60-80%
C = 40-60%
D = 20-40%
E = <20%

Anderson, Brandon - E
Barber, Riley - B
Boyd, Travis - D
Burke, Greg - E
Carman, Mike - E
Carrick, Connor - C
DiPauli, Thomas - C
Djoos, Christian - C
Flemming, Brett - D
Forsberg, Filip - A
Galiev, Stanislav - C
Grubauer, Philipp - B
Haar, Garrett - D
Herbert, Caleb - D
Holtby, Braden - A
Kostenko, Sergey - D
Koudys, Patrick - E
Kuznetsov, Evgeny - A
Marshall, Kevin - D
McNeill, Patrick - C
Mitchell, Garrett - B
Orlov, Dmitry - A
Paquette, Danick - E
Rissling, Jaynen - D
Schilling, Cameron - B
Sjogren, Mattias - C
Soberg, Steffen - D
Stefishen, Taylor - E
Stephenson, Chandler - C
Stevenson, Dustin - E
Stoa, Ryan - C
Wellman, Casey - C
Wey, Patrick - B
Wilson, Tom - B
Wuthrich, Austin - D

A: 4
B: 6
C: 9
D: 9
E: 7

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02-09-2013, 04:01 AM
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msrulo
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I would grade it very close to yours actually. I'm questioning Filip Forsberg "A" level potential though. He plays for the second tier of Swedish leagues and if you compare the stats to Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson in Edmonton, it seems like a draft bust.

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02-09-2013, 04:14 AM
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fedfed
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MPS, year after draft: 29 points in 49 games in Elitserien;
Forsberg: 28 points in 30 games in Allsvenskan.
Difference between Elitserien and Allsvenskan is not as drastic as in other countries (say, KHL/VHL in Russia). So I wouldn't say he's a bust.

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02-09-2013, 04:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by msrulo View Post
I would grade it very close to yours actually. I'm questioning Filip Forsberg "A" level potential though. He plays for the second tier of Swedish leagues and if you compare the stats to Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson in Edmonton, it seems like a draft bust.
To compare players and their abilities to make the NHL based upon stats is quite hilarious.

Also its hardly convincing Brad, we know its you.

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02-09-2013, 04:33 AM
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I agree that stats hardly mean anything in the talent perspective. Just pointing out what other people are saying about Forsberg. I'm a Caps fan for life, who is Brad?

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02-09-2013, 04:51 AM
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Originally Posted by msrulo View Post
I agree that stats hardly mean anything in the talent perspective. Just pointing out what other people are saying about Forsberg. I'm a Caps fan for life, who is Brad?
After research, I believe you aren't Brad...

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02-09-2013, 04:53 AM
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MPS will likely be NHLer, not just what he was projected to be.

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02-09-2013, 01:25 PM
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A = >80% probability
B = 60-80%
C = 40-60%
D = 20-40%
E = <20%

Anderson, Brandon - E
Barber, Riley - B
Boyd, Travis - E
Burke, Greg - E
Carman, Mike - E
Carrick, Connor - C
DiPauli, Thomas - D
Djoos, Christian - C
Flemming, Brett - D
Forsberg, Filip - A
Galiev, Stanislav - B
Grubauer, Philipp - C
Haar, Garrett - D
Herbert, Caleb - D
Holtby, Braden - A
Kostenko, Sergey - E
Koudys, Patrick - E
Kuznetsov, Evgeny - A
Marshall, Kevin - D
McNeill, Patrick - E
Mitchell, Garrett - C
Orlov, Dmitry - A
Paquette, Danick - E
Rissling, Jaynen - D
Schilling, Cameron - B
Sjogren, Mattias - D
Soberg, Steffen - D
Stefishen, Taylor - E
Stephenson, Chandler - D
Stevenson, Dustin - E
Stoa, Ryan - E
Wellman, Casey - D
Wey, Patrick - B
Wilson, Tom - B
Wuthrich, Austin - E

A: 4
B: 5
C: 4
D: 10
E: 12

I guess mine came out considerably less optimistic on the more marginal guys. A 20% chance to make the NHL is pretty high though.

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02-09-2013, 01:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liberati0n View Post
A = >80% probability
B = 60-80%
C = 40-60%
D = 20-40%
E = <20%

Anderson, Brandon - E
Barber, Riley - B
Boyd, Travis - E
Burke, Greg - E
Carman, Mike - E
Carrick, Connor - C
DiPauli, Thomas - D
Djoos, Christian - C
Flemming, Brett - D
Forsberg, Filip - A
Galiev, Stanislav - B
Grubauer, Philipp - C
Haar, Garrett - D
Herbert, Caleb - D
Holtby, Braden - A
Kostenko, Sergey - E
Koudys, Patrick - E
Kuznetsov, Evgeny - A
Marshall, Kevin - D
McNeill, Patrick - E
Mitchell, Garrett - C
Orlov, Dmitry - A
Paquette, Danick - E
Rissling, Jaynen - D
Schilling, Cameron - B
Sjogren, Mattias - D
Soberg, Steffen - D
Stefishen, Taylor - E
Stephenson, Chandler - D
Stevenson, Dustin - E
Stoa, Ryan - E
Wellman, Casey - D
Wey, Patrick - B
Wilson, Tom - B
Wuthrich, Austin - E

A: 4
B: 5
C: 4
D: 10
E: 12

I guess mine came out considerably less optimistic on the more marginal guys. A 20% chance to make the NHL is pretty high though.
I think Grubauer before Galiev, but that's just me. I know different positions, but Galiev bouncing between Reading and Hershey is a red flag for me.

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02-09-2013, 01:35 PM
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It is, but he obviously has the talent. I think it will take longer, but he'll make it. He may not be a good NHL player but I think he'll be there. I think he's low in the B range. I think goalies are less likely to stick and Grubauer has mostly played in the ECHL (I know, so has Galiev). A ~50% chance for a goalie is high.

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02-09-2013, 01:38 PM
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Galiev is a bust already in my mind

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02-09-2013, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liberati0n View Post
It is, but he obviously has the talent. I think it will take longer, but he'll make it. He may not be a good NHL player but I think he'll be there. I think he's low in the B range. I think goalies are less likely to stick and Grubauer has mostly played in the ECHL (I know, so has Galiev). A ~50% chance for a goalie is high.
Goalies seem to really come of age in the late 20's, so taking the slow and long route with Grubauer is just fine. I think he'll make Neuvy expendable at some point, unless we get a vet in to replace Neuvy in the meantime.

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02-09-2013, 01:55 PM
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Goalies seem to really come of age in the late 20's, so taking the slow and long route with Grubauer is just fine. I think he'll make Neuvy expendable at some point, unless we get a vet in to replace Neuvy in the meantime.
Right, so it's hard to conclude he has more than a 50% chance to make the NHL based on ECHL and limited AHL play. That's what I was getting at.

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02-09-2013, 02:10 PM
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It doesn't look great for Galiev right now, but it's too early to put the bust label on him. He's only played 17 AHL games, and he's a PPG player in the ECHL with no prior pro experience. Give him a year to try to figure it out.

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02-09-2013, 02:25 PM
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Galiev just turned 21 and is in his first pro season, he's a kid playing with men. Let's wait to pass judgment on him for a little while.

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02-09-2013, 02:48 PM
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I'm a bit concerned that Tom Wilson didn't make the WJC team. I know, I know the competition was stiff and he's a young guy and there was a lock-out. Still, it worries me. I expect he'll make it to the NHL but will he be anything beyond a 4th liner?

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02-09-2013, 02:51 PM
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I'm a bit concerned that Tom Wilson didn't make the WJC team. I know, I know the competition was stiff and he's a young guy and there was a lock-out. Still, it worries me. I expect he'll make it to the NHL but will he be anything beyond a 4th liner?
They could of used Tom Wilson. The team was built terribly.

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02-09-2013, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by fedfed View Post
A: 4
B: 6
C: 9
D: 9
E: 7
Just as a sanity check on your numbers, you're saying that a player in the Caps' system has about a 35% chance of making the NHL. That sounds very optimistic.

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02-09-2013, 05:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liberati0n View Post
A: 4
B: 5
C: 4
D: 10
E: 12

I guess mine came out considerably less optimistic on the more marginal guys. A 20% chance to make the NHL is pretty high though.
You've got players in the system having about a 30% chance to make the show. This still sounds pretty unreasonable.


Last edited by PuckBuddy: 02-09-2013 at 05:16 PM. Reason: Forgot 2 diveyede
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02-09-2013, 07:31 PM
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Galiev will probably head for the KHL once his ELC is up if he doesn't crack the NHL by then, which he probably won't. If his skill alone can't even cut it in the AHL then it doesn't bode well for the future. Being a PPG player in the ECHL is literally the bare minimum for a "prospect" that's top-6 or nothing. Anything less than that would be a complete waste of a roster/contract slot.

Canada's problem at the WJC wasn't because they didn't take Wilson. They didn't have the players to handle the speed teams on the big rink. OTOH it means very little in projecting what he would do in the NHL.

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02-09-2013, 09:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
I'm a bit concerned that Tom Wilson didn't make the WJC team. I know, I know the competition was stiff and he's a young guy and there was a lock-out. Still, it worries me. I expect he'll make it to the NHL but will he be anything beyond a 4th liner?
The WJC tourney is not really a good one for a player like Wilson due to the way penalties are called. Barring his recent suspension he seems to have tamed it down a bit which bodes well for next year.

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02-09-2013, 09:36 PM
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Wait, Galiev is a bust in his first pro season?

Seriously?

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02-09-2013, 09:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver View Post
Galiev will probably head for the KHL once his ELC is up if he doesn't crack the NHL by then, which he probably won't. If his skill alone can't even cut it in the AHL then it doesn't bode well for the future. Being a PPG player in the ECHL is literally the bare minimum for a "prospect" that's top-6 or nothing. Anything less than that would be a complete waste of a roster/contract slot.

Canada's problem at the WJC wasn't because they didn't take Wilson. They didn't have the players to handle the speed teams on the big rink. OTOH it means very little in projecting what he would do in the NHL.
What makes you think we is good enough for the KHL if he can't even crack Hershey?

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02-09-2013, 09:40 PM
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What makes you think we is good enough for the KHL if he can't even crack Hershey?
Probably because the larger ice surface of the KHL is more suited to his game, whereas the physical element of the AHL is what is causing his struggles.

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02-09-2013, 09:42 PM
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Galiev was the flavor of the month for Steve "Flyers Blogger" Whyno - and he's spent as much time in the ECHL as the AHL. Whyno created a story out of nothing.

Wilson will make the bigs, if just as a heavy. He's got much more talent than that, though, and I hope the Caps keep him in the minors/AHL as long as possible.

Kuznetsov/Forsberg? 1st liners in the NHL in 3 years. Likely not before, though Kuznetsov seems to have the talent/game. Just the contract, as a modifier.

The Caps have two blue-chip forwards set up to arrive in consecutive years. Always draft by need, but the defense could use some prospects, considering Mike Green no longer has puck skills and Carlson has decided that he's already the best defenseman in the league. (He's incorrect.)


Last edited by Marshall: 02-10-2013 at 08:55 AM. Reason: Not neccesary.
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