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Ryan O'Reilly Headed to Offer Sheet or Trade?

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02-11-2013, 10:01 AM
  #351
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Originally Posted by Jordan Godberle View Post
Is he worth what he is wanting for 1 50 point season? if he really wanted to be on the team you think he would be holding out this much? Look at Subban, he bit the bullet and signed a reasonable deal because his fans love him and he want's to be there.
i can't speak for the guy or the organization. is it true that he wants more than what Duchene got? possible, but it's all speculation at this point.

all we know so far is what the Avs offered to O'Reilly. there's no concrete info on what O'Reilly asked. it's easy to assume he wants a big pay day ( don't we all? ), but the longer this drags on... the more i'm starting to think he's gonna be traded.

i personally think he's worth more than Duchene; but i won't deny that Duchene has much more offensive potential.

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02-11-2013, 10:58 AM
  #352
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Originally Posted by guyzeur View Post
Sens traded for Turris which had a worst career than O'Reilly at that time.

Please tell us how far down do you considered picks to be high end? Top 90?

I've also heard that this year's draft is very top heavy but the skills goes down rapidly after top 15.
Offersheeting ROR would be in the range of a 1st + 2nd. He isn't worth that much at this time. That is too much for any team to give up for him.

Turris was had for Runblad and a 2nd, which was not at all a steep price to pay for Turris.

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02-11-2013, 11:03 AM
  #353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 12345 View Post
Offersheeting ROR would be in the range of a 1st + 2nd. He isn't worth that much at this time. That is too much for any team to give up for him.

Turris was had for Runblad and a 2nd, which was not at all a steep price to pay for Turris.
He is worth much more. If you don't believe that ROR is worth say the 20th overall pick+ 50th overall pick , you have no clue and it is not worth talking to you.


Rundblad was a top 5-10 NHL prospect.
He does not look that good right now but he was considered the best dman prospect not in the NHL at that time.

This thread blows.
No one knows what the health situation with ROR is right now.
The Avs are going nowhere this year. Too much injuries and the worst coach in the league.
We are better off waiting this out. If ROR wants to play, he knows what the Avs are offering.
If not, we will reevaluate in the offseason.

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02-11-2013, 11:04 AM
  #354
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Originally Posted by 12345 View Post
Turris was had for Runblad and a 2nd, which was not at all a steep price to pay for Turris.
it might not seem like much now - but at the time, Rundblad had a lot of value. i even reckon Sens fans saying they paid way too much for someone as unproven as Turris.

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02-11-2013, 11:06 AM
  #355
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Since we are talking about Turris and the Sens.

What would it take for Oreilly to be in a Sens uni.

The team is havig trouble scoring and in a need of a center, not sure what we would do when Spezza comes back but it would be a good problem to have.

Trade chips

Colin Greening
Ben Bishop
Stephan DaCosta
1st rounder probably
Some prospects like Mike Hoffman, Petersson etc.
Maybe Zack Smith.

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02-11-2013, 11:09 AM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by General Granny View Post
Since we are talking about Turris and the Sens.

What would it take for Oreilly to be in a Sens uni.
Cowen. Anything else doesn't make sense given our team needs and your team's depth up front.

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02-11-2013, 11:11 AM
  #357
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Quote:
Originally Posted by General Granny View Post
Since we are talking about Turris and the Sens.

What would it take for Oreilly to be in a Sens uni.

The team is havig trouble scoring and in a need of a center, not sure what we would do when Spezza comes back but it would be a good problem to have.

Trade chips

Colin Greening
Ben Bishop
Stephan DaCosta
1st rounder probably
Some prospects like Mike Hoffman, Petersson etc.
Maybe Zack Smith.
The only interesting asset you're dangling with is that 1st round pick and quite honestly Sherman should be fired on the spot if he trades Radar for futures.

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02-11-2013, 11:11 AM
  #358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 12345 View Post
Offersheeting ROR would be in the range of a 1st + 2nd. He isn't worth that much at this time. That is too much for any team to give up for him.

Turris was had for Runblad and a 2nd, which was not at all a steep price to pay for Turris.
I think O'Reilly's value is more than Turris.

Turris didn't accomplish much compared to ROR when Turris asked for a trade/ salary raise.

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02-11-2013, 11:11 AM
  #359
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Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
He is worth much more. If you don't believe that ROR is worth say the 20th overall pick+ 50th overall pick , you have no clue and it is not worth talking to you.


Rundblad was a top 5-10 NHL prospect.
He does not look that good right now but he was considered the best dman prospect not in the NHL at that time.

This thread blows.
No one knows what the health situation with ROR is right now.
The Avs are going nowhere this year. Too much injuries and the worst coach in the league.
We are better off waiting this out. If ROR wants to play, he knows what the Avs are offering.
If not, we will reevaluate in the offseason.
Believing that ROR is worth more than a 1st and 2nd is different that actual evidence of such. He has had 1 good season - that is it. No one is going to give up high level futures for that. Furthermore, a team willing to pay him 4-5 million per season is a bottom 10 team looking for an individual with top 6 upside. That equates to top 10 pick. No team is going to risk giving that up for what could very well be an anomoly of a season. I'm not saying that he isn't very good - but players need to show that level of performance over multiple consecutive seasons, not just one season. What he has done so far is not worth a top 10 pick + a 2nd rounder + a long term 4-5 million per year contract. No building team would pay that in their right mind.

And Runblad was never considered the top defensive prospect in the league. He has always had high potential, like Turris, but has always struggled in the NHL. He was a project like Turris when the trade was made, and he continues to be a project. He was never some secure blue chip prospect meant to be a top pairing defender.

Why are you getting upset? This is a civil conversation and you are getting all worked up for no reason. O'Reilly was an excellent player last year - the question is whether he can produce in a similar fashion this year/coming year. If he sustains his level of production, then he is worthy of a high level pick and top 6 level contract. At this time, all he has is 1 season under his belt.

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02-11-2013, 11:13 AM
  #360
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Originally Posted by guyzeur View Post
I think O'Reilly's value is more than Turris.

Turris didn't accomplish much compared to ROR when Turris asked for a trade/ salary raise.
ROR is worth more than Runblad + 2nd. He isn't worth a top 10 1st, 2nd and a 5 mil contract over multiple years - which is what he is waiting for and people expect the offersheet to be around.

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02-11-2013, 11:20 AM
  #361
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 12345 View Post
Believing that ROR is worth more than a 1st and 2nd is different that actual evidence of such. He has had 1 good season - that is it. No one is going to give up high level futures for that. Furthermore, a team willing to pay him 4-5 million per season is a bottom 10 team looking for an individual with top 6 upside. That equates to top 10 pick. No team is going to risk giving that up for what could very well be an anomoly of a season. I'm not saying that he isn't very good - but players need to show that level of performance over multiple consecutive seasons, not just one season. What he has done so far is not worth a top 10 pick + a 2nd rounder + a long term 4-5 million per year contract. No building team would pay that in their right mind.

And Runblad was never considered the top defensive prospect in the league. He has always had high potential, like Turris, but has always struggled in the NHL. He was a project like Turris when the trade was made, and he continues to be a project. He was never some secure blue chip prospect meant to be a top pairing defender.

Why are you getting upset? This is a civil conversation and you are getting all worked up for no reason. O'Reilly was an excellent player last year - the question is whether he can produce in a similar fashion this year/coming year. If he sustains his level of production, then he is worthy of a high level pick and top 6 level contract. At this time, all he has is 1 season under his belt.
Well you just proved that you have no idea at all.
It is not worth discussing with you anymore. You have no clue who Ryan O'Reilly is and certainly have not seen him play.He is not a 1 yr hit wonder.
And you have no clue about the status Rundblad had when he got traded.
It is not a civil discussion if you are blatantly trolling by spewing nonsense...

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02-11-2013, 11:21 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by 12345 View Post
ROR is worth more than Runblad + 2nd. He isn't worth a top 10 1st, 2nd and a 5 mil contract over multiple years - which is what he is waiting for and people expect the offersheet to be around.
I think you are really massively underrating how highly regarded Rundblad was at the time...

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02-11-2013, 11:22 AM
  #363
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I think Gardiner +/- for RoR +/- would actually be a good deal for both clubs tbh.

Why some people shoot that down is beyond me.

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02-11-2013, 11:24 AM
  #364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 12345 View Post
Believing that ROR is worth more than a 1st and 2nd is different that actual evidence of such. He has had 1 good season - that is it. No one is going to give up high level futures for that. Furthermore, a team willing to pay him 4-5 million per season is a bottom 10 team looking for an individual with top 6 upside. That equates to top 10 pick. No team is going to risk giving that up for what could very well be an anomoly of a season. I'm not saying that he isn't very good - but players need to show that level of performance over multiple consecutive seasons, not just one season. What he has done so far is not worth a top 10 pick + a 2nd rounder + a long term 4-5 million per year contract. No building team would pay that in their right mind.

And Runblad was never considered the top defensive prospect in the league. He has always had high potential, like Turris, but has always struggled in the NHL. He was a project like Turris when the trade was made, and he continues to be a project. He was never some secure blue chip prospect meant to be a top pairing defender.

Why are you getting upset? This is a civil conversation and you are getting all worked up for no reason. O'Reilly was an excellent player last year - the question is whether he can produce in a similar fashion this year/coming year. If he sustains his level of production, then he is worthy of a high level pick and top 6 level contract. At this time, all he has is 1 season under his belt.
He had 2 very good seasons and one great season. He excelled not matter what role (PKer, 3rd line center, go to guy in defensive situations, scoring forward, top line center etc) he was put in.

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02-11-2013, 11:36 AM
  #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 12345 View Post
Believing that ROR is worth more than a 1st and 2nd is different that actual evidence of such. He has had 1 good season - that is it. No one is going to give up high level futures for that. Furthermore, a team willing to pay him 4-5 million per season is a bottom 10 team looking for an individual with top 6 upside. That equates to top 10 pick. No team is going to risk giving that up for what could very well be an anomoly of a season. I'm not saying that he isn't very good - but players need to show that level of performance over multiple consecutive seasons, not just one season. What he has done so far is not worth a top 10 pick + a 2nd rounder + a long term 4-5 million per year contract. No building team would pay that in their right mind.

And Runblad was never considered the top defensive prospect in the league. He has always had high potential, like Turris, but has always struggled in the NHL. He was a project like Turris when the trade was made, and he continues to be a project. He was never some secure blue chip prospect meant to be a top pairing defender.

Why are you getting upset? This is a civil conversation and you are getting all worked up for no reason. O'Reilly was an excellent player last year - the question is whether he can produce in a similar fashion this year/coming year. If he sustains his level of production, then he is worthy of a high level pick and top 6 level contract. At this time, all he has is 1 season under his belt.
You're talking like Rundblad struggled many years. He got traded on his first year in the NHL after playing 24 games on limited TOI and in an ideal (protected) environment.

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02-11-2013, 11:41 AM
  #366
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No one is going to take that contractual risk given he has only had one good season AND give up multiple high end picks in a very deep draft.
GM's pay for potential all the time. Would only take a 1st, 2nd, 3rd at most which for an elite team is peanuts.

Quote:
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And there isn't any team that would take O'Reilly over Zajac. Zajac is bigger, higher draft pedigree, has a better track record, scoring 50-70 points. O'Reilly has 2 x 26 point seasons and a 55 point season. There is not enough information to make an accurate assessment as to whether he is going to be a consistent 55 point player.

And clearly, based on the hold out, I think O'Reilly doesn't believe he can do it again either. Thus, he wants to secure his financial life using the 55 point season. If put up another 30 point prorated season, he would be pegged as a 3/4th PK/shutdown guy and would not earn more than 1.5-2 mil. At 55 points, he is likely to get 4.5-5 mil.
Your last paragraph is valid but I'm sure there are some GMs that think RoR will be a better player in the near future than Zajac.

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02-11-2013, 11:41 AM
  #367
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He had 2 very good seasons and one great season. He excelled not matter what role (PKer, 3rd line center, go to guy in defensive situations, scoring forward, top line center etc) he was put in.
He could be the best PKer in the world, best 3rd line center in the world. He still put up only 26 points x 2 seasons. It may be good from a team perspective but it doesnt equate to a big money contract.

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02-11-2013, 11:44 AM
  #368
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it might not seem like much now - but at the time, Rundblad had a lot of value. i even reckon Sens fans saying they paid way too much for someone as unproven as Turris.
Sens fans over rate everything though... Rundblad wasn't really that good in the first place. Phx got jobbed.

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02-11-2013, 11:44 AM
  #369
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I think Gardiner +/- for RoR +/- would actually be a good deal for both clubs tbh.

Why some people shoot that down is beyond me.
I don't know about other Avs fans...but the reason I reject the idea is because I don't value Gardiner NEARLY as much as most Leaf fans do. And considering the Avs history with concussions, Gardiner's concussion scares me.

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02-11-2013, 11:44 AM
  #370
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GM's pay for potential all the time. Would only take a 1st, 2nd, 3rd at most which for an elite team is peanuts.
While an elite team would like him, they likely already have their top 6 set up and don't need him. Elite teams aren't going to pay him 5 million to play 3rd line center.


If an offersheet is coming, it is coming from a bottom 10 team - which equates to a top 10 pick in this draft. O'Reilly is a great player, but he hasn't shown enough for that kind of pick in this draft.

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02-11-2013, 11:50 AM
  #371
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Your last paragraph is valid but I'm sure there are some GMs that think RoR will be a better player in the near future than Zajac.
Would you give O'Reilly a multiyear (5) x 5 million dollar contract in the hope that he becomes a Zajac? I'm sure that many teams think he will be an excellent player - but thinking and putting cap room in harms way are two different things. He has only had 1 year of high level production - no GM could justify giving that many years of high level salary for that. We all know how many of those contracts have turned out - Leino, JVR, Schenn, Myers, etc - the list is endless. Post ELC monster contracts RARELY work out to the benefit of the team if they haven't dominated like Crosby, Stamkos, etc.

I don't think you could find a team comfortable paying what ROR wants, even if he looks like he will be a dominant player.

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02-11-2013, 12:03 PM
  #372
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Sens fans over rate everything though... Rundblad wasn't really that good in the first place. Phx got jobbed.
Now it's you that is generalizing every thing: what about some Sens fans overate everything.

Rundblad was really good in the SEL. He is not turning out right now but who knows.

20/20 insight is so nice, the overall impression at the trade was that the Sens overpaid for Turris.

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02-11-2013, 12:13 PM
  #373
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While an elite team would like him, they likely already have their top 6 set up and don't need him. Elite teams aren't going to pay him 5 million to play 3rd line center.


If an offersheet is coming, it is coming from a bottom 10 team - which equates to a top 10 pick in this draft. O'Reilly is a great player, but he hasn't shown enough for that kind of pick in this draft.
So there isn't any team between an elite and a bottom 10 in the NHL?

How many elite team is there right now? 5?

That should leave a good 10 that would not mind adding a 2nd line centre.


List of team that would welcome an upgrade at centre (bolded) - Team are sorted by points:

Team
Chicago
New Jersey
Boston
Anaheim
San Jose
Vancouver
Pittsburgh
Detroit

Toronto
Ottawa
Nashville
Montreal - could but they should be patient
St. Louis
Dallas
Edmonton
NY Rangers
Tampa Bay
Phoenix
Carolina
Winnipeg
Minnesota
Philadelphia
Buffalo - could but they should be patient
NY Islanders
Florida
Calgary
Colorado
Los Angeles
Columbus
Washington

I see a total of 9 teams that could make a trade for ROR:

Toronto
Ottawa
Nashville
St. Louis
Edmonton
NY Rangers
Phoenix
Winnipeg
Minnesota

Once they sign him, they should move up in the standing as well.


Last edited by guyzeur: 02-11-2013 at 12:20 PM.
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02-11-2013, 12:19 PM
  #374
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Sens fans over rate everything though... Rundblad wasn't really that good in the first place. Phx got jobbed.
LOL coming from an Oilers fan of all places, and a guy named Jordan Godberle of all things. Thats just amazing.

Since you like to generalize and entire fanbase, I would like too. There is no fanbase that overhype their players more than the Oilers one.

And as to Rundblad he was coming off a PPG campaign in the SEL as a Dman. He was considered as a top 5 prospect in the world by many and not just Sens fans.

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02-11-2013, 12:20 PM
  #375
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Would you give O'Reilly a multiyear (5) x 5 million dollar contract in the hope that he becomes a Zajac? I'm sure that many teams think he will be an excellent player - but thinking and putting cap room in harms way are two different things. He has only had 1 year of high level production - no GM could justify giving that many years of high level salary for that. We all know how many of those contracts have turned out - Leino, JVR, Schenn, Myers, etc - the list is endless. Post ELC monster contracts RARELY work out to the benefit of the team if they haven't dominated like Crosby, Stamkos, etc.

I don't think you could find a team comfortable paying what ROR wants, even if he looks like he will be a dominant player.
I think the numbers the Avs reportedly are offering are a little low. Honestly, he's a good enough player that he should get more than 2x3 or 2x3.5 or whatever it was they offered. His play last year is worth more than that, let alone if he develops further.

I think he's actually in a strange position for someone his age because he hasn't had sustained success. I think he gets a shorter higher contract, or a longer slightly lower contract. So 2x4.25 or something would be very fair for someone who's been elite defensively while putting up solid second line center numbers. If you want a bit longer, you go with 4x3.75 or something - short enough that he'll get another payday if he shows last year wasn't a fluke, but long and high enough that the team is committing to the belief he's legit.

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