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Old
02-10-2013, 12:12 AM
  #76
Noreaster96
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Originally Posted by TeamKidd View Post
err, doesnt the NAM only go out to 84 hours?
I've always considered the DGEX to be an extension of the NAM... But then again the DGEX isn't very useful to begin with lol

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02-10-2013, 08:44 AM
  #77
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Almost 9 am Sunday morning and still no plow on my little side street in Holbrook.

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02-10-2013, 09:03 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by On Edge View Post
Almost 9 am Sunday morning and still no plow on my little side street in Holbrook.
Same here in Rocky Point. I havent seen or even heard a plow yet. Im at the end of a dead end street so Im completely stuck here.

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02-10-2013, 09:09 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by TeamKidd View Post
Resident meteorologist, at your service
Where do you work?

FWIW
<<<<<<B.S. and M.S. in meteorology and I work for the NWS

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Old
02-10-2013, 09:51 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Islanders1932 View Post
Same. When I read about a storm on HF I know its serious. The guys on here know their stuff and it was great having so much warning about Sandy. I was able to get prepared early. Thanks to all for keeping us up to date.
Agree! I really appreciate the contributions

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02-10-2013, 11:03 AM
  #81
Noreaster96
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Originally Posted by wingnutks View Post
Where do you work?

FWIW
<<<<<<B.S. and M.S. in meteorology and I work for the NWS
Really? Damn that's awesome! I've been trying to get into the weather service for a year now, no such luck . It's tough nowadays...

And who woulda thought there's be so many mets on this board

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02-10-2013, 11:31 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
Really? Damn that's awesome! I've been trying to get into the weather service for a year now, no such luck . It's tough nowadays...

And who woulda thought there's be so many mets on this board
Where did you get your degree?

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02-10-2013, 11:35 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by wingnutks View Post
Where did you get your degree?
Not that any of you asked, but I'm in a Masters program at Stonybrook I'll leave it at that.

Looks like temperatures will rise again just in time for Orco. But I do see a system forming at the trail end of next weekend.

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02-10-2013, 11:40 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by IslesBeBack View Post
Not that any of you asked, but I'm in a Masters program at Stonybrook I'll leave it at that.

Looks like temperatures will rise again just in time for Orco. But I do see a system forming at the trail end of next weekend.
I actually went to SB for a year.

Orco is causing the temp rise. We should get above freezing this afternoon and we may even stay above freezing all night depending on how soon the SW flow starts and how strong it is. Could see some fog tonight too with warmer air moving over the snow pack.
We may even see some snow Wed night

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02-10-2013, 11:45 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by IslesBeBack View Post
Not that any of you asked, but I'm in a Masters program at Stonybrook I'll leave it at that.

Looks like temperatures will rise again just in time for Orco. But I do see a system forming at the trail end of next weekend.
Yeah as the storm moves by (not keen on the naming situation), the tail end of the storm a piece of energy moves out of the rockies and amplifies off the coast on wed night....much smaller storm than the previous...but if it tracks "right" then it's capable of dumping another foot on LI...not what we need. especially you guys in suffolk.

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02-10-2013, 12:57 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by On Edge View Post
Almost 9 am Sunday morning and still no plow on my little side street in Holbrook.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heart of Vukota View Post
Same here in Rocky Point. I havent seen or even heard a plow yet. Im at the end of a dead end street so Im completely stuck here.
You probably won't see a plow till later today, tomorrow. They're busy clearing the LIE and other major roadways first.

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Old
02-10-2013, 01:55 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by TeamKidd View Post
Yeah as the storm moves by (not keen on the naming situation), the tail end of the storm a piece of energy moves out of the rockies and amplifies off the coast on wed night....much smaller storm than the previous...but if it tracks "right" then it's capable of dumping another foot on LI...not what we need. especially you guys in suffolk.
Im thinking its more of a weekend storm, and as of right now it looks like theres about a 50/50 chance of significant snow. I love the snow, bring it on.

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02-11-2013, 12:46 PM
  #88
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The mid week system will track to far north in all likelihood. The models do show a disrepancy, with a chance of it tracking further south. If it tracks South of Long Island, we could get 6-10 inches of snow Thursday. As of right now, though, it'll be a couple of inches.

Saturday into Sunday is a different story. All the ingredients are coming together for a huge storm. So start getting the snow plows ready again. As of right now, I'll say that our forecast could be 12-18 inches of snow. If more cold air pulls in from the North, and a sort of intensification happens, Long Island is looking at getting slammed again. Sorry guys.

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02-11-2013, 01:14 PM
  #89
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I went Saturday and was lucky to have no weather related issues from Southeast Nassau, although the exit ramps were a bit icy. I am much more concerned about tonight. If it freezes the black ice could be nasty.

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02-11-2013, 02:14 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IslesBeBack View Post
The mid week system will track to far north in all likelihood. The models do show a disrepancy, with a chance of it tracking further south. If it tracks South of Long Island, we could get 6-10 inches of snow Thursday. As of right now, though, it'll be a couple of inches.

Saturday into Sunday is a different story. All the ingredients are coming together for a huge storm. So start getting the snow plows ready again. As of right now, I'll say that our forecast could be 12-18 inches of snow. If more cold air pulls in from the North, and a sort of intensification happens, Long Island is looking at getting slammed again. Sorry guys.
I dont think the Valentines Day storm tracks too far north... if you look at the spread of the guidance, its the NAM (furthest north) with the EURO (furthest south)... Granted the Euro has been making leaps and bounds towards a more northerly solution, I really think LI will see another 3-6 inch snowfall at least

One problem with model guidance is that they tend to overdo warmth in the boundary layer, especially when theres snowpack so really anywhere not immediately to the South of LI and I think we're in a place to get hit by snow.

As for this weekend, yeah the potential is CRAZY... Such a highly amplified pattern, its hard to buy the idea that the EURO is spitting out that no coastal will develop to the south of us, although the Canadian brings a low too far to the west for us... We'll really have to wait until after the Valentines Day storm moves out before the environment will be fully set for the models to understand whats going to happen this weekend

In fact, i'd be more concerned about rain this upcoming weekend, if the trough sets up too far west we'll get torched by any low as itll run over or to the west of us... It'll become MUCH clearer later in the week though


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Old
02-11-2013, 02:22 PM
  #91
Bunk Moreland
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Can you guys translate some of that weather jibberish into something I can understand.

When, How much and Where haha.

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02-11-2013, 02:27 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I dont think the Valentines Day storm tracks too far north... if you look at the spread of the guidance, its the NAM (furthest north) with the EURO (furthest south)... Granted the Euro has been making leaps and bounds towards a more northerly solution, I really think LI will see another 3-6 inch snowfall at least

One problem with model guidance is that they tend to overdo warmth in the boundary layer, especially when theres snowpack so really anywhere not immediately to the South of LI and I think we're in a place to get hit by snow.

As for this weekend, yeah the potential is CRAZY... Such a highly amplified pattern, its hard to buy the idea that the EURO is spitting out that no coastal will develop to the south of us, although the Canadian brings a low too far to the west for us... We'll really have to wait until after the Valentines Day storm moves out before the environment will be fully set for the models to understand whats going to happen this weekend

In fact, i'd be more concerned about rain this upcoming weekend, if the trough sets up too far west we'll get torched by any low as itll run over or to the west of us... It'll become MUCH clearer later in the week though
Ahh a thread where weather people can argue! Love it! Im going to take the low end of the 3-6 forecast as I really think the Euro has the more realistic track as i dont think the storm pulls away from the mid atlantic the way the NAM shows. Im usually a big NAM guy btw.

As for this weekend, i think we see a rain event early, switching to sleet, then to all snow. It will bring down the totals, depends on how much amplification we see south of LI

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02-11-2013, 02:33 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by IslesBeBack View Post
Ahh a thread where weather people can argue! Love it! Im going to take the low end of the 3-6 forecast as I really think the Euro has the more realistic track as i dont think the storm pulls away from the mid atlantic the way the NAM shows. Im usually a big NAM guy btw.

As for this weekend, i think we see a rain event early, switching to sleet, then to all snow. It will bring down the totals, depends on how much amplification we see south of LI
Its funny cuz most of the time I'm not a fan of the NAM . Really, most of the time the NAM should really be used mostly for determining convection within storms rather than large scale synoptic patterns, but in this case it, along with the GFS, has seemed to lead the way with respect to the models this go around when compared to the foreign models (AKA the exact opposite situation of "Nemo"). I think it'll be more north of the Euro as the S/W associated with the storm keeps getting stronger and more amplified every single run of the ECMWF while the GFS and NAM for the most part hold serve. Surface temps are the biggest problem for LI, but like I said, I think models will overdo surface temps due to all this snow cover by several degrees...

IF I had to make a forecast now, i think id be comfortable with a general 3-6, although I reserve the right to change that as we get closer to the storm on Wed night

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02-11-2013, 02:36 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by Bunk Moreland View Post
Can you guys translate some of that weather jibberish into something I can understand.

When, How much and Where haha.
Exactly what I was thinking. We're not all weather nerds, we just need the skinny.

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02-11-2013, 02:40 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by PWJunior View Post
Exactly what I was thinking. We're not all weather nerds, we just need the skinny.
Sorry, I love the weather and tend to get carried away when talking about it

If I were forecasting as a job I'd play it conservative and go a chance for a wintry mix turning to snow late Wednesday night into Thursday with some accumulation possible.

What my gut tells me is that it will be mostly snow with accumulations of generally 3-6 inches across the area... Again, as we get closer we can pin down exact amounts more accurately though

And this weekend has the ***POTENTIAL*** to be something big, although thats not set in stone yet

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02-11-2013, 03:39 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
Sorry, I love the weather and tend to get carried away when talking about it

If I were forecasting as a job I'd play it conservative and go a chance for a wintry mix turning to snow late Wednesday night into Thursday with some accumulation possible.

What my gut tells me is that it will be mostly snow with accumulations of generally 3-6 inches across the area... Again, as we get closer we can pin down exact amounts more accurately though

And this weekend has the ***POTENTIAL*** to be something big, although thats not set in stone yet
By all means keep up with the nerd talk. I was thinking about majoring in Meteorology but there are no programs in NYC other than the really expensive NYU or Columbia.

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02-11-2013, 06:12 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
I dont think the Valentines Day storm tracks too far north... if you look at the spread of the guidance, its the NAM (furthest north) with the EURO (furthest south)... Granted the Euro has been making leaps and bounds towards a more northerly solution, I really think LI will see another 3-6 inch snowfall at least

One problem with model guidance is that they tend to overdo warmth in the boundary layer, especially when theres snowpack so really anywhere not immediately to the South of LI and I think we're in a place to get hit by snow.

As for this weekend, yeah the potential is CRAZY... Such a highly amplified pattern, its hard to buy the idea that the EURO is spitting out that no coastal will develop to the south of us, although the Canadian brings a low too far to the west for us... We'll really have to wait until after the Valentines Day storm moves out before the environment will be fully set for the models to understand whats going to happen this weekend

In fact, i'd be more concerned about rain this upcoming weekend, if the trough sets up too far west we'll get torched by any low as itll run over or to the west of us... It'll become MUCH clearer later in the week though
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noreaster96 View Post
Its funny cuz most of the time I'm not a fan of the NAM . Really, most of the time the NAM should really be used mostly for determining convection within storms rather than large scale synoptic patterns, but in this case it, along with the GFS, has seemed to lead the way with respect to the models this go around when compared to the foreign models (AKA the exact opposite situation of "Nemo"). I think it'll be more north of the Euro as the S/W associated with the storm keeps getting stronger and more amplified every single run of the ECMWF while the GFS and NAM for the most part hold serve. Surface temps are the biggest problem for LI, but like I said, I think models will overdo surface temps due to all this snow cover by several degrees...

IF I had to make a forecast now, i think id be comfortable with a general 3-6, although I reserve the right to change that as we get closer to the storm on Wed night
NAM was all wrong with Nemo until the last minute. GFS did a horrible job. ECMWF was pretty close the whole time, but underestimated the QPF, but then again who would have believed the last minute NAM with 4"+ QPF.

Right now the biggest difference in this weekends storm is the Euro has the upper trough deeper and further east so by the time the storm bombs out it will be north east of long island.

As far as the impact of the snow pack, it matters but most of the snow back is down stream of the system... from LI and northeastward. The snow pack will have less of an impact than if it was in PA/OH/NY/NJ

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Old
02-11-2013, 08:13 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by wingnutks View Post
NAM was all wrong with Nemo until the last minute. GFS did a horrible job. ECMWF was pretty close the whole time, but underestimated the QPF, but then again who would have believed the last minute NAM with 4"+ QPF.

Right now the biggest difference in this weekends storm is the Euro has the upper trough deeper and further east so by the time the storm bombs out it will be north east of long island.

As far as the impact of the snow pack, it matters but most of the snow back is down stream of the system... from LI and northeastward. The snow pack will have less of an impact than if it was in PA/OH/NY/NJ
Yeah, the NAM and GFS didn't handle Nemo well at all... Though the NAM's QPF, as you said, wasn't as overdone as one might think upon first seeing it. This time it seems as though the American models were the first to pick up on a more amplified S/W allowing for a quicker negative tilt to the trough letting it run further north... If it verifies I'd score it as a win for the NAM/GFS over the EURO for this particular storm

I'm curious to hear your thoughts as to this weekends potential, since it looks VERY intriguing

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02-11-2013, 11:47 PM
  #99
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Pretty cool time lapse video of the snow piling up..

http://www.weather.com/video/watch-snow-pile-up-34236?

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02-12-2013, 07:48 AM
  #100
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It *looks* like we will dodge two bullets. The first bullet being tomorrow, as I don't think we wind up with anything more than slush/ couple inches.

And this weekend. The latest GFS runs have the storm staying offshore, and the Euro is in agreement as it has the storm offshore in every run since yesterday.

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