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Is it time to move Mike Green? (aka the hat0r thread)

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Old
02-11-2013, 12:08 PM
  #976
brs03
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That's 5 on 5. Including special teams he's been worse (which makes sense, some of his issues wrt coverage are amplified on the PK)

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02-11-2013, 12:12 PM
  #977
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That's 5 on 5. Including special teams he's been worse (which makes sense, some of his issues wrt coverage are amplified on the PK)
Yeah, just checked 4v5 and he's one of the worst. Looks like Hamrlik should also never, ever be on a PK.

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02-11-2013, 12:26 PM
  #978
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Yeah, just checked 4v5 and he's one of the worst. Looks like Hamrlik should also never, ever be on a PK.
Small sample size. He's only played 3 games so far. Less than 6 minutes of PK time total.

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02-11-2013, 12:27 PM
  #979
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Erskine's been getting rather lucky in that, with the amount of chances against he's seeing, he should have been scored on more than he has been. I mean he's playing well and all, but he's a ticking time bomb if you lean too heavily on him.
This.

Erskine's luck started in the New Jersey game after he gave the puck away in the closing seconds. Kovy missed high. And Neuvy turned in the best 'tender game of the season.

Erskine Opponents: New Jersey, Philadelphia, Florida, Toronto (2), Buffalo

Poti/Hamrlik Opponents: both Tampa Bay, Montreal, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh (Poti), Pittsburgh (Hamrlik)

Erskine also benefited from a team that had three games under its belt with the new system and I would say better goaltending.

So if they win with Ersk in the lineup against upper tier teams and he beats the snot out of some folks I'll have no problems with that. That's yet to be seen.

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02-11-2013, 12:59 PM
  #980
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Randy's always been vocal about wanting:

- Ovi on the RW
- Green and Alzner paired
- Beagle as top C

Its clear he's Adam Oates.


It's me, George.

George McFly.

I will never shut up about the first one if he pulls an MVP or some related stunt at RW. I first proposed using him at RW after game 1 (shotless) vs Montreal, and in game 2 we saw RW rushes and finally shots on goal. I thought someone had read my posts.

Alzner Green. The biggest no brainer to try in a D pairing in a long long time.

Beagle.... not so much. Spotting grinders (esp ones that scored in juniors) with studs, more preferred. Think Boyd Gordon the extra skater drawing late in the offensive zone, over Nick a rookie at 40%. Or for a game in a scrapped season, over an AHL vet callup.

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02-11-2013, 01:18 PM
  #981
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Yeah, Erskine really has just gotten incredibly lucky. His PDO is 1085, 10th in the NHL amongst defensemen. The fact that he's doing it on the worst team in the league just makes it all the more unbelievable.

For anyone who doesn't know what PDO is:

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PDO is the sum of "On-Ice Shooting Percentage" and "On-Ice Save Percentage" while a player was on the ice. It regresses very heavily to the mean in the long-run: a team or player well above 1000 has generally played in good luck and should expect to drop going forward and vice-versa.
Caps' PDOs

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02-11-2013, 01:22 PM
  #982
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Well maybe Erskine's a good luck charm then huh?

Fact is there is one stat that SUFFERS when he is not in the lineup. Hits...even thats a wonky stat. I see it. He crushes fools and provides an intimidating presence we just don't have.

Year after year Caps fans ignore this physical presence and don't think it matters much.

4 hits by all our D combined in 2 games vs the Pens. Dispicable.

I bet Erskine is leading our team in hits (not even gonna bother looking up the stat) despite only playing half the games.

This DEFINITELY has an effect up and down the lineup.

Nice bout vs Parros too. He smashed him good with that haymaker right and got everyone fired up including Joe B and Locker.

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02-11-2013, 01:24 PM
  #983
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Ironically, the best thing Erskine brings to our defense, cannot be easily measured nor seen in stats. Opponents would rather see Sarge coming at them, than him.

While he may whiff and fall on his face, they will know when he doesn't.

I think a crease clearing efficiency, or a lack of creases that need to be cleared stat, would be of interest.

How much time does an opponent stand near or in our crease when he is on the ice. Include after whistles too.

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02-11-2013, 01:28 PM
  #984
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I have no problem keeping him in as 5/6 for the physicality, most games at least (given his injury history I would look for chances to rest him as long as they're going to carry so much D depth). I don't want him to stay as the #4 though. That much ice time is just asking for a collapse.

(Wrt to his PDO, his on ice sh% is a bit high, and probably doesn't matter given his role, but his on ice sv% is also way higher than you'd expect to be sustainable... that's part of where the luck comes into play, and where he'll be really hurt if there's any regression. Especially when you couple that with how badly the Caps are outshot when he's on the ice.)

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02-11-2013, 01:30 PM
  #985
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Ironically, the best thing Erskine brings to our defense, cannot be easily measured nor seen in stats. Opponents would rather see Sarge coming at them, than him.

While he may whiff and fall on his face, they will know when he doesn't.

I think a crease clearing efficiency, or a lack of creases that need to be cleared stat, would be of interest.

How much time does an opponent stand near or in our crease when he is on the ice. Include after whistles too.
Its hard to measure the psychological impact of a big hitter and the effects it has on the opposition when said player is on the ice.

The most glowing example was Scott Stevens. Even when he was unpolished with the Caps the opposition straight out feared him. To a lesser extent the opposition fears any players who can put a lick on them and have to be aware of them on the ice.

Stats can't measure everything.

Also having a monstrous big brother out there boosts everyone's confidence on the team.

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I have no problem keeping him in as 5/6 for the physicality, most games at least (given his injury history I would look for chances to rest him as long as they're going to carry so much D depth). I don't want him to stay as the #4 though. That much ice time is just asking for a collapse.

(Wrt to his PDO, his on ice sh% is a bit high, and probably doesn't matter given his role, but his on ice sv% is also way higher than you'd expect to be sustainable... that's part of where the luck comes into play, and where he'll be really hurt if there's any regression. Especially when you couple that with how badly the Caps are outshot when he's on the ice.)
We need SOMEONE in the top 4 who can hit. We don't have that. GMGM has never addressed that.

For now Erskine is our only option and its mandtory in my book to have him play with Carlson and play top 4 minutes. I don't want Poti/Hamrlik/Schultz/Kundratek in the top 4 in lieu of Erskine. None of those guys bring a lick of physical play, intimidation or crease clearing.

Until we find a top 4 physical vet dman we should roll with our best fit.

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02-11-2013, 01:30 PM
  #986
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Green makes Carlson redundant. Carlson has yet to show the top end skill set Green has, but the potential is there. I could see Carlson moved for the right deal.

At some points even our most seasoned posters must realize that if the core of the team is going to be reshaped by McFail (or whatever GM), some players you hope/think are untouchable or only available for a team who is going to overpay (see Pipedream) need to be moved.

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02-11-2013, 01:34 PM
  #987
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Green makes Carlson redundant as long as you don't give a **** about this thing called the playoffs.

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02-11-2013, 01:35 PM
  #988
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCupFantasy View Post
Green makes Carlson redundant. Carlson has yet to show the top end skill set Green has, but the potential is there. I could see Carlson moved for the right deal.

At some points even our most seasoned posters must realize that if the core of the team is going to be reshaped by McFail (or whatever GM), some players you hope/think are untouchable or only available for a team who is going to overpay (see Pipedream) need to be moved.
Yeah but the postseason makes Green redundant either via the total disappearance of his offense or his inability to not get hurt in a physical game.

Carlson might grow while Green hasn't improved when it matters in 5 years. I'd much sooner move Green than Carlson.

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02-11-2013, 01:36 PM
  #989
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Yeah but the postseason makes Green redundant either via the total disappearance of his offense or his inability to not get hurt in a physical game.

Carlson might grow while Green hasn't improved when it matters in 5 years. I'd much sooner move Green than Carlson.
FYI Green was excellent in last years playoffs. Carlson too.

We need both.

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02-11-2013, 01:46 PM
  #990
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Yeah but the postseason makes Green redundant either via the total disappearance of his offense or his inability to not get hurt in a physical game.

Carlson might grow while Green hasn't improved when it matters in 5 years. I'd much sooner move Green than Carlson.
It's a tough spot, but you don't make your franchsie strategies around what ifs do you?

Green has a proven top end skill set that Carlson probably won't ever touch. Carlson looks like he learned a lot from Wideman last season...just sayin...


I'd love to keep both, but I could see one of them moved to reshape the forwards. I'd think that would be Carlson given his age, upside and salary, but who knows. Honestly the move I expect is nothing because that's the safer move from McFail. Never take a risk, never get burned....

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02-11-2013, 01:47 PM
  #991
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FYI Green was excellent in last years playoffs. Carlson too.

We need both.
Fyi you're missing the point. Green played like an above average stay at home dman. He's paid to prevent scoring opportunities AND score a boatload of points. He's never done that in the postseason. And as a guy we count on heavily that's a bitter disappointment.

If that's all you want from Green trade him for futures and sign Scuderi this offseason. He'll bring stronger defense and cost less.

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02-11-2013, 01:49 PM
  #992
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCupFantasy View Post
It's a tough spot, but you don't make your franchsie strategies around what ifs do you?

Green has a proven top end skill set that Carlson probably won't ever touch. Carlson looks like he learned a lot from Wideman last season...just sayin...
Apparently it's perfectly fine to make them around "what if Green doesn't get hurt/what if other teams become nice and gentle and stop running him" though.

And it's even more fine to make them based off of the first 12 games of a regular season. Backstrom for Conacher anyone?

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02-11-2013, 01:54 PM
  #993
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Fyi you're missing the point. Green played like an above average stay at home dman. He's paid to prevent scoring opportunities AND score a boatload of points. He's never done that in the postseason. And as a guy we count on heavily that's a bitter disappointment.

If that's all you want from Green trade him for futures and sign Scuderi this offseason. He'll bring stronger defense and cost less.
Green is still very young for a dman. He does more than play D and whether he puts up points or not he is still a one man breakout machine.

Gonchar, outside of 1 playoff series vs the Bs, was brutal for us in the playoffs and was a turnover machine. What happened to him?

Murphy was soft as butter but what happened to him when he left?

Fact is that there are some people who said "Semin is THE problem!! Get rid of him and we will be better!!"...now you turn to Green and say the same thing.

Perhaps get him a legit top 4 physical D partner first and give him something to work with.

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02-11-2013, 01:57 PM
  #994
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Green is still very young for a dman. He does more than play D and whether he puts up points or not he is still a one man breakout machine.

Gonchar, outside of 1 playoff series vs the Bs, was brutal for us in the playoffs and was a turnover machine. What happened to him?

Murphy was soft as butter but what happened to him when he left?

Fact is that there are some people who said "Semin is THE problem!! Get rid of him and we will be better!!"...now you turn to Green and say the same thing.

Perhaps get him a legit top 4 physical D partner first and give him something to work with.
And in the absence of doing that we can expect Green to be either injured or neutered in the postseason. Got it. I'm looking forward to him maybe putting it together in 3 years though.

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02-11-2013, 01:58 PM
  #995
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Fyi you're missing the point. Green played like an above average stay at home dman. He's paid to prevent scoring opportunities AND score a boatload of points. He's never done that in the postseason. And as a guy we count on heavily that's a bitter disappointment.

If that's all you want from Green trade him for futures and sign Scuderi this offseason. He'll bring stronger defense and cost less.
You make a rather large assumption that it's all we'll ever get from Green. Seems clear to me he's been given the green light to rush the puck again and get deep on offense. I'd bet Green has been playing a more conservative style in the postseason because of instructions from the coaching staff.

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02-11-2013, 01:59 PM
  #996
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And in the absence of doing that we can expect Green to be either injured or neutered in the postseason. Got it. I'm looking forward to him maybe putting it together in 3 years though.
Last year was his best playoff IMO. A 50 year old Roman Hamrlik has been by FAR the best D partner he has ever had.

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02-11-2013, 02:00 PM
  #997
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This.

Erskine's luck started in the New Jersey game after he gave the puck away in the closing seconds. Kovy missed high. And Neuvy turned in the best 'tender game of the season.

Erskine Opponents: New Jersey, Philadelphia, Florida, Toronto (2), Buffalo

Poti/Hamrlik Opponents: both Tampa Bay, Montreal, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh (Poti), Pittsburgh (Hamrlik)


Erskine also benefited from a team that had three games under its belt with the new system and I would say better goaltending.

So if they win with Ersk in the lineup against upper tier teams and he beats the snot out of some folks I'll have no problems with that. That's yet to be seen.
You have these games wrong. Erskine faced Toronto once, not twice. The team you're missing is Ottawa. So Erskine's faced the current 1,5,6,11,12 and 14 seeds, and the Poti/Hamrlik combo has faced the 3,4,7 and 10 seeds.

Both sets contain 3 playoff teams, and not enough of a difference for the opponents to be considered a factor, imo.

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02-11-2013, 02:00 PM
  #998
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As for Green, he's clearly afraid of contact and injury. Maybe justifiably so. But it's affecting his play.

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02-11-2013, 02:01 PM
  #999
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And in the absence of doing that we can expect Green to be either injured or neutered in the postseason. Got it. I'm looking forward to him maybe putting it together in 3 years though.
That should be timed nicely then. I keep reading posters here saying Kuz, Forsberg, and Wilson will all be regular contributors then and the franchise will be saved.

I can't wait for 2015!

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02-11-2013, 02:01 PM
  #1000
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You make a rather large assumption that it's all we'll ever get from Green. Seems clear to me he's been given the green light to rush the puck again and get deep on offense. I'd bet Green has been playing a more conservative style in the postseason because of instructions from the coaching staff.
I'm sure they asked him not to score on the power play as well.

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