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10-13-1. "A bunch of donkeys on skates"

View Poll Results: What should the Caps do?
Tank and trade UFA's 1 20.00%
Tank and re-tool 4 80.00%
Trade futures to right the ship 0 0%
Stand pat, hoping they pull it together. 0 0%
Voters: 5. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
02-11-2013, 11:12 AM
  #401
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Do you disagree that this team needs an infusion of talent (regardless of age)?
I don't disagree. But in the salary cap era, every team's fan is going to say that. Even team with the best record is going to say they need talent here and there. Hell, we were saying that here when we looked so god damned good winning the President's trophy.

Quote:
Do you disagree that this roster was built terribly?
I think "terribly" is kind of harsh. Terribly built roster doesn't make it to the playoffs year in and year out. Its a flawed roster perhaps. And I've said that I question GMGM's ability to build a TEAM. With that said, there is talent on this team.

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Do you disagree that if we keep the team as presently constructed, we'll have trouble adding anyone significant next season due to the salary cap?
I have no idea what the salary cap looks like for us right now.

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Do you disagree that the first 12 games of this season have been as bad of a stretch as the Caps have had since they hired Boudreau?
I agree. Its been bad no doubt.

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02-11-2013, 11:12 AM
  #402
Stewie G
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
My scenarios end at the end of the season -- where the team would be draft pick-wise, salary cap-wise, and management mindset-wise. Yours went beyond that to the worst possible outcome of that position. Hence it not being comparable.

Making the playoffs is much more butterflies and unicorns than getting a top-5 pick. Sure, we're only 5 points out, but 5 of the 7 teams we'd have to pass have at least 1 game in hand on us.
Your may scenarios end at the end of the season but to me make assumptions as to what happens immediately after. Is it wrong to take the scenarios that extra step as a means to show that getting to that artifical endpoint isn't really the end of the exercise.

I'm not going to disagree that getting a top 5 pick is more likely than making the playoffs, but I'm not going to go down that path until the conclusion is almost assured. I'd like to get a better feel as to whether those teams ahead of the Caps are more than marginally better teams rather than rely on a 12 game sample. Perhaps Cory Conacher really is a 4x better goal scorer than Ovi at ES now.

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02-11-2013, 11:18 AM
  #403
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
Your may scenarios end at the end of the season but to me make assumptions as to what happens immediately after. Is it wrong to take the scenarios that extra step as a means to show that getting to that artifical endpoint isn't really the end of the exercise.

I'm not going to disagree that getting a top 5 pick is more likely than making the playoffs, but I'm not going to go down that path until the conclusion is almost assured. I'd like to get a better feel as to whether those teams ahead of the Caps are more than marginally better teams rather than rely on a 12 game sample. Perhaps Cory Conacher really is a 4x better goal scorer than Ovi at ES now.
I think it is wrong, because the entire point is to consider what course of action for the rest of this season puts us in the best position going forward. The Ovechkin continuing to spiral/draft pick bust/UFA not coming thing can be applied to every scenario, so it doesn't make much sense to only apply it to that one.

When considering the sample size, also consider the Boudreau taking over/turnaround scenario. That was also a 25% of the season sample, and had never happened before.

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02-11-2013, 11:21 AM
  #404
Stewie G
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
I'd take that bet. Most of the rest of the league has more cap flexibility, and much more cohesive rosters, if not more talented. The Caps have some elite top end talent, and some good grinders, but there's almost nothing between them.

Hoping Backstrom and Ovechkin return to their former glory after the past few seasons without heavily utilizing the draft and free agency is much more of a magic fix scenario than I set forth.

I want a roster where we don't have to depend on them being elite. I can't think of a better route to get to that point than a top draft pick, a deeper futures pool to trade from, and more cap flexibility to allow moves in the FA/trade market.
Your dream scenario has the Caps with 1/4 of their salary cap tied up with 2 players that are producing like 2nd liners and lots of hopes and wishes?

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02-11-2013, 11:25 AM
  #405
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
I think it is wrong, because the entire point is to consider what course of action for the rest of this season puts us in the best position going forward. The Ovechkin continuing to spiral/draft pick bust/UFA not coming thing can be applied to every scenario, so it doesn't make much sense to only apply it to that one.

When considering the sample size, also consider the Boudreau taking over/turnaround scenario. That was also a 25% of the season sample, and had never happened before.
Of course it can, but different scenarios are much more reliant on certain aspects than others for success. That is why I strung that scenario out a little further.

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02-11-2013, 11:25 AM
  #406
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Originally Posted by tycoonheart View Post
I don't disagree. But in the salary cap era, every team's fan is going to say that. Even team with the best record is going to say they need talent here and there. Hell, we were saying that here when we looked so god damned good winning the President's trophy.
Every team isn't bottom 10 in scoring goals and bottom 3 in allowing them.

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I think "terribly" is kind of harsh. Terribly built roster doesn't make it to the playoffs year in and year out. Its a flawed roster perhaps. And I've said that I question GMGM's ability to build a TEAM. With that said, there is talent on this team.
I think "terribly" is a perfectly suitable term for the team with the worst record in the league.

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I have no idea what the salary cap looks like for us right now.
A conservative projection (the current roster letting Wolski, Poti & Hamrlik walk) gives the Caps a shade over $3M in cap room.


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I agree. Its been bad no doubt.
So shouldn't that indicate significant change is needed?

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02-11-2013, 11:27 AM
  #407
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
Of course it can, but different scenarios are much more reliant on certain aspects than others for success. That is why I strung that scenario out a little further.
Right. And the scenario of holding it together and hoping for a playoff birth is essentially completely reliant on Ovechkin and Backstrom miraculously regaining their form.

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02-11-2013, 11:29 AM
  #408
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
Your dream scenario has the Caps with 1/4 of their salary cap tied up with 2 players that are producing like 2nd liners and lots of hopes and wishes?
No, my dream scenario has the Caps with 1/4 of their salary cap tied up with 2 players that are producing like 2nd liners and significantly more resources available to compensate for that.

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02-11-2013, 11:36 AM
  #409
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Every team isn't bottom 10 in scoring goals and bottom 3 in allowing them.
This season has been more of an exception though, don't you think? Lets take a look:

2011-2012: Ranked #14th, in a no-offense Hunter hockey system
2010-2011: Ranked #19th, Bruce was forced to move to the trap
2009-2010: Ranked #1
2008-2009: Ranked #1

So now that we have a system where offense isn't an after thought, maybe the goals will start coming? They seem to be playing much better within this system. Lets see how it shakes out.

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I think "terribly" is a perfectly suitable term for the team with the worst record in the league.
First time in like what 4 or 5 years they have had a horrendous start? I'd say it was a terrible roster if this is how they looked for the last few years. But the fact that they have been, at the very least, a decent team, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. They'll turn it around, IMO.

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A conservative projection (the current roster letting Wolski, Poti & Hamrlik walk) gives the Caps a shade over $3M in cap room.
Okay, good to know.

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So shouldn't that indicate significant change is needed?
Not when we're only 12 games into this season (short season so this horrible start might do us in). Again, if this is how they had been the last few season, yes a significant change is needed. Not when this is an anomaly.

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02-11-2013, 11:40 AM
  #410
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
The team has talented players. I bet more than half the teams in the league would trade their roster for the Caps' roster. They could get an infusion of talent just by getting those underachieving players to return to form. Having those players perform helps the rest of the roster sort itself out and makes the salary cap numbers work much better. Ovechkin has 1 ES goal and 3 ES points in 12 games. Let that sink in. Backstrom has 1 ES goal (albeit with an unsustainable low 4.2% shooting percentage). They're producing like 2nd/3rd line players. Paying those two guys 1/4 of the cap is going to make any situation untenable.

Agreed that the roster has pieces that don't fit. Also agreed that the first 12 games have been borderline unwatchable. That doesn't mean that the best/only fix is send an already fragile team down the creek for a season and hope that the draft and UFA class are going to be magical fixes to what ails them.
And your solution is what, exactly? Other than "hope"?

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02-11-2013, 11:42 AM
  #411
Stewie G
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Right. And the scenario of holding it together and hoping for a playoff birth is essentially completely reliant on Ovechkin and Backstrom miraculously regaining their form.
That's not the end goal though. My contention is that getting Ovechkin and Backstrom back to form is the single most important factor in the team's chances of winning the SC in the next few years. Tanking this year decreases the likelihood of that happening to me. It will likely further damage the psyche of an already fragile team, increase both internal and external pressures, and handicap the team going forward in the cap world by having 1/4 of the cap tied up in two 2nd line players. How do you expect to pay replacement top line players and still have enough money to spend on quality throughout the rest of the lineup?

A playoff berth very likely might be unobtainable now or at some point in the near future, but it is possible that outright tanking might not put them in the best situation moving forward.

Maybe one year of being Calgary East that ends with the majority of the Caps lineup being in tune with Oates' system and with help from Forsberg/trades/UFAs might be the best path forward. I don't know.

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02-11-2013, 11:44 AM
  #412
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Originally Posted by tycoonheart View Post
This season has been more of an exception though, don't you think? Lets take a look:

2011-2012: Ranked #14th, in a no-offense Hunter hockey system
2010-2011: Ranked #19th, Bruce was forced to move to the trap
2009-2010: Ranked #1
2008-2009: Ranked #1

So now that we have a system where offense isn't an after thought, maybe the goals will start coming? They seem to be playing much better within this system. Lets see how it shakes out.



First time in like what 4 or 5 years they have had a horrendous start? I'd say it was a terrible roster if this is how they looked for the last few years. But the fact that they have been, at the very least, a decent team, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. They'll turn it around, IMO.



Okay, good to know.



Not when we're only 12 games into this season (short season so this horrible start might do us in). Again, if this is how they had been the last few season, yes a significant change is needed. Not when this is an anomaly.
I'm with you on all counts. I think they deserve a bit longer before we've made a final judgement.

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02-11-2013, 11:55 AM
  #413
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
That's not the end goal though. My contention is that getting Ovechkin and Backstrom back to form is the single most important factor in the team's chances of winning the SC in the next few years. Tanking this year decreases the likelihood of that happening to me. It will likely further damage the psyche of an already fragile team, increase both internal and external pressures, and handicap the team going forward in the cap world by having 1/4 of the cap tied up in two 2nd line players. How do you expect to pay replacement top line players and still have enough money to spend on quality throughout the rest of the lineup?

A playoff berth very likely might be unobtainable now or at some point in the near future, but it is possible that outright tanking might not put them in the best situation moving forward.

Maybe one year of being Calgary East that ends with the majority of the Caps lineup being in tune with Oates' system and with help from Forsberg/trades/UFAs might be the best path forward. I don't know.
As the NBTWiz stated.....the best way to get Ovechkin and Backstrom back to their previous levels is to put more talent around them. With a team that is going to be close to the cap the next year +, only way to do that is cheap young talent.

Add Kuznetsov, Forsberg, Wilson, Orlov, and a top pick (or more, if we can get a 1st rounder for some combo of these players like Green, Laich, Ribeiro, Brouwer, Ward, Chimera, Poti, Hamrlik, Erskine, Schultz etc) will do that in a much more cohesive manner than trading one 6m salary for another -- as we have in Semin for Ribeiro.

Caps need to dump a lot of these middling salaries for better talent at that salary. Obviously you cant dump all of it, but you can sure try.

And they need a new VISION from on high with a new GM/President to add the new pieces around Ovechkin, Backstrom, Alzner, Carlson, Orlov, Holtby, Kuznetsov, Forsberg, Wilson and top pick. Sprinkle is some of the current roster above that you dont send out, add much needed vet talent via trades and FA signings, and start next year with Oates as the coach (or his replacement chosen by the new GMGM/President of Hockey Operations).

See what you have for 2013 -14, and make changes accordingly.

What we have now is just a bunch of players who dont play for each other....for whatever the reasons. Caps keep changing the coach, and the results keep staying the same (poor).


Last edited by Ridley Simon: 02-11-2013 at 12:01 PM.
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02-11-2013, 12:19 PM
  #414
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if you are going to add that many rookie and wait for others of them to develope into nhl players, trade ovechkin and backstrom now. forsberg, wilson, orlov are seasons from having enough experience to push a team toward a title. same for kuznetsov in lesser time.

that team certainly misses the playoffs for two seasons.

why pay ovechkin 10m per when a real shot at a title again is 4 seasons up the road?

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02-11-2013, 12:43 PM
  #415
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I think George's best chance at a cup is closer to now, than 5 years from now. But hey, Sarge will be done simmering by then.

Anyone we draft in June cannot be expected to be the missing part to a cup, and if they were, it would not be realistic to predict that for at least 2-3 seasons from now.

The team should have higher priorities than our draft position. For a tank year, we are way over what we should be spending. It appears a priority to never have a tank year.

What the 4 percenters are possibly overlooking, is that Ovi tends to trend better later in the year. I bet our team does.

I think every fan will agree it is preferred to finish strong. Not see Theo get shelled for 7 goals lol.


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02-11-2013, 12:47 PM
  #416
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I'd love to see them finish strong but just be really unlucky, and end up with both a sense of confidence and a really good pick. But the opposite will probably happen.

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02-11-2013, 12:57 PM
  #417
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
if you are going to add that many rookie and wait for others of them to develope into nhl players, trade ovechkin and backstrom now. forsberg, wilson, orlov are seasons from having enough experience to push a team toward a title. same for kuznetsov in lesser time.

that team certainly misses the playoffs for two seasons.

why pay ovechkin 10m per when a real shot at a title again is 4 seasons up the road?
We're operating within a ten year cup window right now. How would selling players jive with Ted and George's dynasty talk of the past 6 years?

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02-11-2013, 01:30 PM
  #418
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
if you are going to add that many rookie and wait for others of them to develope into nhl players, trade ovechkin and backstrom now. forsberg, wilson, orlov are seasons from having enough experience to push a team toward a title. same for kuznetsov in lesser time.

that team certainly misses the playoffs for two seasons.

why pay ovechkin 10m per when a real shot at a title again is 4 seasons up the road?
Because we have him and Backstrom locked up till I believe sometime in the 2020's. Which means they will be in their VERY prime when Forsberg, Wilson, Orlov and Kuv start really producing. People need to calm the F down.

Of course not all are gonna pan out, but we have Holtby who proved last night he CAN succeed. We ave Ovi, Backstrom, Green. The staples of our team. DO NOT GET RID OF THEM FOR ****S SAKE. We have a string of 15 bad games, under a brand new coach with ZERO pre-season running a system that took the Devils a while to get? Jesus stop crying, there's been a ton of turnover, and just look at the last few games. We have gotten CONSISTENTLY better each game. Even the Pens game, erase that 8 minutes of what the ****ery we played a very solid 40 minutes and really should at least have only lost by 1. Look at our roster 3 years from now barring losing staple players.

Ovi/Ribeiro/Ward
Brouwer(or Mojo)/Backstrom/Kuz
Forsberg/Perrault/Wilson
Hendricks/Chimera/Beagle
^^ That's a lot of ****ing talent and well WELL balanced team. We do have the cap space for all of that too mind you, and I'd say get rid of brouwer and Mojo and pick up some prospects. Move Forsberg to the second line and pick up a good 2/3rd line winger veteran for around 2 mil.
Green/Carlson (Hopefully he can improve)
Alzner/Orlov
Kundratek/Erskine (or probably someone else by this point)
Holtby/(someone Else cause I don't see us keeping Neuvy. Prob trading for that 2/3rd line winger I was saying)
Of course 2 or 3 of these names above will prob change over the next 3 years but assuming GMGM doesn't make horrid moves that's a LOT of talent listed. Under Oates with the system understood by this point this has a lot lot lot of upside.
Everyone complaining about cap space, we are in pretty good shape. Assuming we drop Schultz, Hamrlik and a few others that leaves a good bit of room. Also when we resign players at the end of this season (depending on their attitude of the team and how poorly we play the rest of the season) a lot of their values might be low when/if we resign them.

All is far form lost guys. Relax for christ's sake. I for one have actually really liked how the caps are playing. The lack of shot's on goal isn't a bad thing. They've been getting a ton of scoring chances, rather than the old caps ways of SHOOT SHOOT SHOOT SHOOT (which we all saw what happened against a hot goalie and good shot blocking defense). Take smart shots, high percentage shots, and play good defense. We gotta work on our D, PK and turnovers. But it's all coming together. I still think we win the SE division. I bet we string together 2 more wins, lose at the rangers then our real turnaround and statement will be when we make a 3 win home stand against the Devils/Canes. And at that point we will be 1 point back of the Canes.

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02-11-2013, 01:40 PM
  #419
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Because we have him and Backstrom locked up till I believe sometime in the 2020's. Which means they will be in their VERY prime when Forsberg, Wilson, Orlov and Kuv start really producing. People need to calm the F down.

Of course not all are gonna pan out, but we have Holtby who proved last night he CAN succeed. We ave Ovi, Backstrom, Green. The staples of our team. DO NOT GET RID OF THEM FOR ****S SAKE. We have a string of 15 bad games, under a brand new coach with ZERO pre-season running a system that took the Devils a while to get? Jesus stop crying, there's been a ton of turnover, and just look at the last few games. We have gotten CONSISTENTLY better each game. Even the Pens game, erase that 8 minutes of what the ****ery we played a very solid 40 minutes and really should at least have only lost by 1. Look at our roster 3 years from now barring losing staple players.

Ovi/Ribeiro/Ward
Brouwer(or Mojo)/Backstrom/Kuz
Forsberg/Perrault/Wilson
Hendricks/Chimera/Beagle
^^ That's a lot of ****ing talent and well WELL balanced team. We do have the cap space for all of that too mind you, and I'd say get rid of brouwer and Mojo and pick up some prospects. Move Forsberg to the second line and pick up a good 2/3rd line winger veteran for around 2 mil.
Green/Carlson (Hopefully he can improve)
Alzner/Orlov
Kundratek/Erskine (or probably someone else by this point)
Holtby/(someone Else cause I don't see us keeping Neuvy. Prob trading for that 2/3rd line winger I was saying)
Of course 2 or 3 of these names above will prob change over the next 3 years but assuming GMGM doesn't make horrid moves that's a LOT of talent listed. Under Oates with the system understood by this point this has a lot lot lot of upside.
Everyone complaining about cap space, we are in pretty good shape. Assuming we drop Schultz, Hamrlik and a few others that leaves a good bit of room. Also when we resign players at the end of this season (depending on their attitude of the team and how poorly we play the rest of the season) a lot of their values might be low when/if we resign them.

All is far form lost guys. Relax for christ's sake. I for one have actually really liked how the caps are playing. The lack of shot's on goal isn't a bad thing. They've been getting a ton of scoring chances, rather than the old caps ways of SHOOT SHOOT SHOOT SHOOT (which we all saw what happened against a hot goalie and good shot blocking defense). Take smart shots, high percentage shots, and play good defense. We gotta work on our D, PK and turnovers. But it's all coming together. I still think we win the SE division. I bet we string together 2 more wins, lose at the rangers then our real turnaround and statement will be when we make a 3 win home stand against the Devils/Canes. And at that point we will be 1 point back of the Canes.
I like the fire and the post. I'll ask you this though...because you seem like a fan who is willing to overlook a lot. This is year 3 of a clear downswing in the overall performance of the team and the star players. You don't think that's an issue? It's clear to me that something is dysfunctional on this roster.

I for one will be surprised if Ribeiro is here past this season.

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02-11-2013, 01:45 PM
  #420
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if you are going to add that many rookie and wait for others of them to develope into nhl players, trade ovechkin and backstrom now. forsberg, wilson, orlov are seasons from having enough experience to push a team toward a title. same for kuznetsov in lesser time.

that team certainly misses the playoffs for two seasons.

why pay ovechkin 10m per when a real shot at a title again is 4 seasons up the road?
Come on Tex, you are only looking at part of the solution. Those rookies are the core left, not the core of next years team. \

Dont just pick one part of my comments without looking at all of it. Thats not an accurate reflection of what I am saying, at all.

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02-11-2013, 02:40 PM
  #421
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Come on Tex, you are only looking at part of the solution. Those rookies are the core left, not the core of next years team. \

Dont just pick one part of my comments without looking at all of it. Thats not an accurate reflection of what I am saying, at all.
its a critical part of the package, rids. next season the caps can afford to add kuz in the top 6 f, orlov in the top 6 d, and be able to compete. put two of them on the top 2 lines and they are going nowhere, particularly if 8 and 19 are not superheros again.

if you want to put 5 of them in the lineup, its school days hockey. the caps have been too young all along. just as green is starting to mature, you want to trade him and wait for carlson to get to 26 or 27.

if you want to blow it up, then blow it up and start over. that ovechkin too. if you want an ovechkin lead team to run at the cup, then you dont need half the roster full of players with 3 or less nhl seasons of experience. thats a fail. thats what mcphee ha been doing and you want him fired.

edit: and...forsberg perreault wilson would be burned alive. two rookies and a the leader of the lollipop guild on one line? omg...fail

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02-11-2013, 03:30 PM
  #422
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People really ****ing are harping on this only 48 games BS.

There are a lot of teams winning a lot and other teams not winning.

Hell, Thanksgiving usually comes at the quarter mark of the season, therefore we've basically hit that now. So I guess 9-12th place should just give up, because after all, they are a massive 3 points behind Toronto who's 5th.

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02-11-2013, 03:46 PM
  #423
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Even if the Caps are struggling as a team and Ovechkin is struggling still, how does this franchise trade away a superstar talent of his kind? They've NEVER had a guy like this. It's not like the skill has been lost. He's in his own head. I think Ovechkin turns it around truely when he's got another forward on the team drawing some attention away from him, both on ice and in the press. Maybe Kuz is that guy. Hope so.

If at some point paying Ovy his salary really hinders the team, then there's some thought to be put into considering a trade, but this team isn't paying to the cap now. Let me know when they're pinned down by the cap before we worry about the guy's salary. Right now, his name still puts butts in the seats. Last year he was top 5 in goals in his worst season ever. Trading him away as TXPD is suggesting would be franchise suicide unless the Caps got some immediate young impact players back.

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02-11-2013, 04:08 PM
  #424
RandyHolt
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I wonder if when Ted tacked on those extra years, if he thought inflation and salary escalation would be continuing rampant in the era it was when Ovi signed. That Ovi's contract would be more reasonable in 2020. Its early in his contract but I am weary.

Just like real estate experts will tell you, there is never a bad time to buy. They were wrong.


Last edited by RandyHolt: 02-11-2013 at 04:30 PM.
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Old
02-11-2013, 04:30 PM
  #425
dles
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CapitalsCupFantasy View Post
I like the fire and the post. I'll ask you this though...because you seem like a fan who is willing to overlook a lot. This is year 3 of a clear downswing in the overall performance of the team and the star players. You don't think that's an issue? It's clear to me that something is dysfunctional on this roster.

I for one will be surprised if Ribeiro is here past this season.
I'd say it has to do with the turnover in coaching. Boudreau was pressured to change his coaching style after we had the bad luck of playing a team that just happened to have the hottest goalie I've personally ever seen and we hit the post about 30 times. At that point it was a mistake in my opinion, and we should have just kept the course, kept developing as a team and keep Boudreau how it was. After Boudreau changed, it was time to fire him. Then look at Dale Hunter the COMPLETE opposite style. That took half a season to adjust to, and we almost made the conference finals. Who knows if Ward never frigin slashed the guy in the face. Then we have a new coach AGAIN with a complicated system, that is supposed to take a while to get used to with no pre-season. This isn't like a coach coming in and trying to run the same system. It's hard for these guys to completely change the way they play and to be asked to do it immediately without any training or time.

Now I will say, if they end up the season looking how they have this first 25% I'd start to worry. But honestly, even if we end up in last place, if we end the season 5-5 or something of the sort I'll be happy. I think we have a lot to look forward to, and Oates isn't here to play like the old caps. He's here to implement a playoff hockey system that wins cups. It'll take time.

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