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Howson's Drafting

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Old
02-11-2013, 05:13 PM
  #1
CapnCornelius
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Howson's Drafting

I haven't yet finished all of my "homework" on this, but I thought I'd get the ball started on this anyhow.

A lot of folks bag on Doug's drafting and then go the next step and assume Howson is better.

The reality of the situation is much more complicated. I'm going to rely on work others have done to keep some objectivity here. But let's start with this:

http://www.theartofscouting.com/defa...?p=nhlprospect

Take a close look at that, folks. It covers the entirety of Doug MacLean's tenure and compares it to a 10 year period from 1997-2006. Our horrible joke of a first GM was in the top half of the league in the success rate of his draft picks.

The other study that I will rely on in looking at how our GM's performed is one performed by Simon Fraser University. You can find details here:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey...n_instead.html

http://beedie.sfu.ca/blog/2011/03/nh...ichael-brydon/

One interesting thing in reviewing the draft results was that Doug's perceived second round failures were not really as bad as may have been thought once you look at leaguewide results--Doug managed to find 3 guys that played over 160 NHL games out of 6 picks, which amounts to a 50% success rate. No one is confusing Adam McQuaid, Dan Fritsche or Tim Jackman for Zdeno Chara, Wayne Gretzky and Chris Pronger, but there isn't a pick Howson has made in the second round that is a clear winner unless we want to start counting chickens with respect to Boone Jenner and there are a couple that have been clear disasters--Stefan Legein and Dalton Smith.

I think it is time to stop accepting the conventional wisdom and to really look at the net results of these two GM's drafting. I think people may be surprised at what they find.

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02-11-2013, 05:31 PM
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Could part of exGMDM's success rate be because he was the GM of an expansion team? I would think it is easier for draft picks to make the NHL on an expansion team. Also, maybe exGMDM pushed his draft picks into the NHL even if they shouldn't have been. You are probably going to have a higher success rate if you bring prospects onto your team quickly. A team that doesn't may have less players make the NHL, but the ones who do are ready when they get there. How good you are is probably another factor. I would think more draft picks make bad teams. Just a thought.

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02-11-2013, 05:34 PM
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On a related note, since MB brought it up recently, I thought I'd mention Craig Patrick's 16 year draft history as the General Manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Let's just look at Round 1, shall we:

Jamie Heward (16th overall) played 394 career games including playing for your Columbus Blue Jackets.

Jaromir Jagr was taken #5 overall.

Markus Naslund was taken 16th overall.

Marty Straka was taken 19th overall.

Stefan Bergkvist was taken at #26 (fail).

Chris Wells was taken at #24 and played 195 games.

Alexei Morozov was taken at #24 overall and played 451 games.

Craig Hiller was taken at #23 (fail).

Robert Dome was taken at #17 (fail).

Milan Kraft was taken at #23 and played 207 games.

Konstantin Koltsov was taken at #18 (fail).

Brooks Orpik was taken at #18.

Colby Armstrong was taken at #21 and has played 450 NHL games.

Ryan Whitney was taken #5 overall and has played 450 NHL games.

Fleury, Malking Crosby (#1, #2, #1).

Take a good look at that list, folks. With the exception of Jagr and the last 4, Patrick wasn't picking in the top 10 and still managed to get some decent NHL contributors and in the case of Orpik, Straka and Naslund, some pretty damn good players. Anyone who wants to run our GM's track records against that, be my guest.

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02-11-2013, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RDriesenUD View Post
Could part of exGMDM's success rate be because he was the GM of an expansion team? I would think it is easier for draft picks to make the NHL on an expansion team. Also, maybe exGMDM pushed his draft picks into the NHL even if they shouldn't have been. You are probably going to have a higher success rate if you bring prospects onto your team quickly. A team that doesn't may have less players make the NHL, but the ones who do are ready when they get there. How good you are is probably another factor. I would think more draft picks make bad teams. Just a thought.
Doug had 17 players play more than 160 NHL games. Of those players, 11 are still in the league (Nash, Klesla, Aaron Johnson, Tim Jackman (who knew?), Marc Methot, Adam McQuaid, Kris Russell, Jared Boll, Steve Mason, Derick Brassard and Derek Dorsett)—and note that Grant Clitsome still has a chance to make the list.

The guys not in the league are Fritsche, Zherdev, Andrew Murray, Tollefsen, LeClaire and Brule. Zherdev played . Murray wasn't rushed by Doug...he didn't play until Howson was in charge. I never felt LeClaire was rushed per se. I'd argue Brule might have had a LONGER career if he hadn't been rushed. That leaves Tollefsen and Fritsche. You tell me if they would/wouldn't have played elsewhere in the league. Bot did hang on after their Jackets days were over ever so briefly.

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02-11-2013, 05:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
Doug had 17 players play more than 160 NHL games. Of those players, 11 are still in the league (Nash, Klesla, Aaron Johnson, Tim Jackman (who knew?), Marc Methot, Adam McQuaid, Kris Russell, Jared Boll, Steve Mason, Derick Brassard and Derek Dorsett)—and note that Grant Clitsome still has a chance to make the list.

The guys not in the league are Fritsche, Zherdev, Andrew Murray, Tollefsen, LeClaire and Brule. Zherdev played . Murray wasn't rushed by Doug...he didn't play until Howson was in charge. I never felt LeClaire was rushed per se. I'd argue Brule might have had a LONGER career if he hadn't been rushed. That leaves Tollefsen and Fritsche. You tell me if they would/wouldn't have played elsewhere in the league. Bot did hang on after their Jackets days were over ever so briefly.
You forgot Lennart Pettrell.

Per Mars should be good. I remember Douggie had great things to say about him back in the day

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02-11-2013, 05:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
Doug had 17 players play more than 160 NHL games. Of those players, 11 are still in the league (Nash, Klesla, Aaron Johnson, Tim Jackman (who knew?), Marc Methot, Adam McQuaid, Kris Russell, Jared Boll, Steve Mason, Derick Brassard and Derek Dorsett)—and note that Grant Clitsome still has a chance to make the list.

The guys not in the league are Fritsche, Zherdev, Andrew Murray, Tollefsen, LeClaire and Brule. Zherdev played . Murray wasn't rushed by Doug...he didn't play until Howson was in charge. I never felt LeClaire was rushed per se. I'd argue Brule might have had a LONGER career if he hadn't been rushed. That leaves Tollefsen and Fritsche. You tell me if they would/wouldn't have played elsewhere in the league. Bot did hang on after their Jackets days were over ever so briefly.
Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. I was bringing up reasons why that many exGMDM draft picks have played in the NHL. I wasn't saying that is why.

How many 1st/2nd line forwards, top pairing defensemen, or number 1 goaltenders did he draft? I see one. I don't know what the success rate for that is with other teams, but that doesn't seem to be good.

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02-11-2013, 06:05 PM
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This should be an interesting thread. Lots of ways to slice and dice data. Remember numbers don't lie but liars use numbers.

To RD's point I was pretty amazed that Phoenix was 30th. I didn't check standings but I think they weren't very good during the period under study and would have thought thatheir picks would have been better.

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02-11-2013, 06:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samkow View Post
You forgot Lennart Pettrell.

Per Mars should be good. I remember Douggie had great things to say about him back in the day
Curious if you have a point or just want to contribute to the list that already exists here:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00005316.html

Lennart Pettrell played all of 72 NHL games. Which is not shocking considering the guy was drafted in the 6th round. Players selected in rounds 4 and beyond have a success rate of about 11%.

I'd find a good Howson equivalent for Per Mars...except the guy has rarely made a pick in the 3rd round. That said, Jake Hansen isn't exactly looking like he's NHL material.

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02-11-2013, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
but there isn't a pick Howson has made in the second round that is a clear winner unless we want to start counting chickens with respect to Boone Jenner and there are a couple that have been clear disasters--Stefan Legein and Dalton Smith.
Just finished reading the 1st post and already noticed completely false statement. Leaving on the side Stefan Legein's love for delivering pizzza I just wanna point out that Dalton Smith last night had an assist on Ryan Johansen's goal. He's young and tough kid who still can have better NHL career than Fritsche or Jackman.

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02-11-2013, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by bizzz View Post
Just finished reading the 1st post and already noticed completely false statement. Leaving on the side Stefan Legein's love for delivering pizzza I just wanna point out that Dalton Smith last night had an assist on Ryan Johansen's goal. He's young and tough kid who still can have better NHL career than Fritsche or Jackman.
6 points in 37 AHL games. But, I'm sure the one assist from last night means he's a bona fide NHL player.

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02-11-2013, 06:59 PM
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
I'd find a good Howson equivalent for Per Mars...except the guy has rarely made a pick in the 3rd round. That said, Jake Hansen isn't exactly looking like he's NHL material.
Draft picks like Per Mårs were just unbelievably bad. In comparison, Jake Hansen is Sydney Crosby.

We're taking about a guy who was unable to skate a level to play B-league hockey at a local rink and had concrete bricks for hands. He was unable to score even in the 2nd tier Swedish league or the USHL and wasn't able to stick on a team in Division 1 (3rd tier/semi-pro) in Sweden.

My friend in Gävle laughed at the idea anyone would draft him. He was big but that was it. Beyond that, he had a reputation for being lazy and unmotivated.

At least with Howson's draft picks, most are becoming legitimate pros. That can't be said for a lot of the early draft picks.

Per Mårs now owns a company in Sweden that makes inline hockey skates.

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02-11-2013, 07:11 PM
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Draft picks like Per Mårs were just unbelievably bad. In comparison, Jake Hansen is Sydney Crosby.

We're taking about a guy who was unable to skate a level to play B-league hockey at a local rink and had concrete bricks for hands. He was unable to score even in the 2nd tier Swedish league or the USHL and wasn't able to stick on a team in Division 1 (3rd tier/semi-pro) in Sweden.

My friend in Gävle laughed at the idea anyone would draft him. He was big but that was it. Beyond that, he had a reputation for being lazy and unmotivated.

At least with Howson's draft picks, most are becoming legitimate pros. That can't be said for a lot of the early draft picks.

Per Mårs now owns a company in Sweden that makes inline hockey skates.
There was an old Huey Lewis song that went "Sometimes Bad is Bad." This is one of those times. Per Mars or Maksim Mayorov. Doesn't really matter. The result is the same. When it comes to guys that miss the NHL, their proximity to making it really doesn't matter to me. In other words, Mathieu Corbeil isn't any more impressive to me than a guy like Mars.

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02-11-2013, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
There was an old Huey Lewis song that went "Sometimes Bad is Bad." This is one of those times. Per Mars or Maksim Mayorov. Doesn't really matter. The result is the same. When it comes to guys that miss the NHL, their proximity to making it really doesn't matter to me. In other words, Mathieu Corbeil isn't any more impressive to me than a guy like Mars.
Taking a chance that Corbeil or Mayorov could develop into potential NHLers is completely different than trying to hope that Mårs would. The chance that Mårs would be successful was slim to none. Randomly drafting some guy out of a beer league had a better chance of playing in the NHL than Mårs.

With the failed MacLean picks, there's a lot of them that just totally tanked and never were capable of playing even in the AHL.

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02-11-2013, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by JacketsFanWest View Post
Taking a chance that Corbeil or Mayorov could develop into potential NHLers is completely different than trying to hope that Mårs would. The chance that Mårs would be successful was slim to none. Randomly drafting some guy out of a beer league had a better chance of playing in the NHL than Mårs.

With the failed MacLean picks, there's a lot of them that just totally tanked and never were capable of playing even in the AHL.
And yet the result is the same, which pretty much bears out what the Simon Fraser study showed--most NHL picks from rounds 4 onward could be done at random and turn out as well.

Howson has yet to draft and develop a player who has turned out as well as Nash or even Klesla. And it is not as if he hasn't had picks as high as MacLean did.

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02-11-2013, 08:18 PM
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6 points in 37 AHL games. But, I'm sure the one assist from last night means he's a bona fide NHL player.
I knew your hockey world is limited to points numbers. And how many points Jackman and Fritsche were scoring in the NHL or AHL?
I'll help you out. In his 1st year in the AHL Jackman had 16 points in 77 games.

And while I was printing this another Howson's 2nd round pick scored his 1st NHL goal. Coincidence?


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02-11-2013, 09:16 PM
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And while I was printing this another Howson's 2nd round pick scored his 1st NHL goal. Coincidence?
Its just one game man. One game. Ridiculous.

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02-11-2013, 09:23 PM
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I knew your hockey world is limited to points numbers. And how many points Jackman and Fritsche were scoring in the NHL or AHL?
I'll help you out. In his 1st year in the AHL Jackman had 16 points in 77 games.

And while I was printing this another Howson's 2nd round pick scored his 1st NHL goal. Coincidence?


Yes, that would be the literal definition of a "coincidence." Jaroslav Balastik once had a first NHL goal.

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02-11-2013, 09:48 PM
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I'd be very interested in two things:
  • An evaluation of whether or not the players in question were actually any good on the ice when MacLean was putting them in (given his reputation for rushing folks), and
  • A similar evaluation of the drafting ability of guys like Mike Milbury and Ken Holland - y'know, so we can have an idea of where such things fall.

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02-11-2013, 10:26 PM
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Fighting over who had the better draft record, MacLean or Howson is like fighting over which is better, getting a wedgie, or getting kicked in the balls.

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02-11-2013, 10:32 PM
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Capn, have you no respect for Mayor's private life? He's gonna be up until 5am now.

However the rankings work out, XGMDM will always appear to be the bigger failure because he tried so hard to hit it out of the park so often and failed. Howson's drafting is more small ball, but IMO, the end result is a better body of work, if not a sexy one. That's what I see, anyway. Not perfect, but better, nonetheless.

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02-11-2013, 10:59 PM
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Its just one game man. One game. Ridiculous.
22 years old Marc Methot was as good prospect as Cody Goloubef right now. They're different type, but approximately same level. Right now Methot is a 1st pairing d-man for Ottawa. Howson built defensive depth so you may not pay attention to guys like Cody.

And what was ridiculous? That's his 4th NHL game and he's got a few hundreds ahead of him. Book it.

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02-11-2013, 11:53 PM
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Capn, have you no respect for Mayor's private life? He's gonna be up until 5am now.

However the rankings work out, XGMDM will always appear to be the bigger failure because he tried so hard to hit it out of the park so often and failed. Howson's drafting is more small ball, but IMO, the end result is a better body of work, if not a sexy one. That's what I see, anyway. Not perfect, but better, nonetheless.
Agreed. And, I would add that I get a sense of less dart throwing under Howson.

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02-12-2013, 12:23 AM
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I happen to have a copy of the 2007 THN draft preview next to my desk. Here are some notes from the CBJ page:

"(The fans have) been sold a bill of goods by management."

"(The team) arrived at the draft table the first five seasons with a clear directive from GM Doug MacLean to bring bigger, meaner, stronger players into the organization. The mantra: When in doubt, draft 'em stout."

"They keep suggesting center Derick Brassard will be ready next season, but it's time they stop rushing prospects to the NHL."

"(Kris) Russell, a third-rounder in 2005, is the first prospect of impressive pedigree they've landed beyond the first round." (The first round with MacLean wasn't too hot either)

At the time the issue went to press, Jim Clark was still the interim GM and Bob Murray was the leading candidate to take over in Columbus. I'm not going anywhere with this, simply providing context.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RDriesenUD View Post
Could part of exGMDM's success rate be because he was the GM of an expansion team? I would think it is easier for draft picks to make the NHL on an expansion team. Also, maybe exGMDM pushed his draft picks into the NHL even if they shouldn't have been. You are probably going to have a higher success rate if you bring prospects onto your team quickly. A team that doesn't may have less players make the NHL, but the ones who do are ready when they get there. How good you are is probably another factor. I would think more draft picks make bad teams. Just a thought.
This is certainly part of it. MacLean draft picks who ended up in the NHL include Andrej Nedorost, Cole Jarrett, Petteri Nummelin, Greg Mauldin, Joakim Lindstrom, Steve Goertzen, and Adam Pineault. Most of the players who hit that 160-game threshold would never have hit it if not for MacLean's inability to put talent in the system.

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Howson has yet to draft and develop a player who has turned out as well as Nash or even Klesla. And it is not as if he hasn't had picks as high as MacLean did.
I'd argue for Voracek over Klesla, even at the time that Voracek was traded. Columbus under Howson has never had a pick as high as the one used on Nash, and the only one that comes close was spent this past summer (Ryan Murray).

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02-12-2013, 12:28 AM
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Capn, have you no respect for Mayor's private life? He's gonna be up until 5am now.

However the rankings work out, XGMDM will always appear to be the bigger failure because he tried so hard to hit it out of the park so often and failed. Howson's drafting is more small ball, but IMO, the end result is a better body of work, if not a sexy one. That's what I see, anyway. Not perfect, but better, nonetheless.
The question we must always ask about MacLean is this: "What was the plan?"

Now, I will give MacLean credit for having to handle a unique set of circumstances from 2000-04 (five drafts), which is that overage European players had to be drafted rather than simply signed as free agents. And obviously no one wants to be stuck having wasted a pick on a European player who is quite content in the SM-Liiga or something, and thus have nothing to show for it.

But that doesn't explain why the 2000 draft included a pick on Petteri Nummelin, who was 28 years old at the time and had just finished his 8th season at the highest levels of European pro hockey. Had MacLean simply eschewed drafting overage Europeans, then we'd have some idea of what he was trying to do. But drafting Nummelin means that we must also look at drafting Ben Knopp ahead of Mikael Tellqvist (21 at the time and just played in the SEL). It means that we have to consider Los Angeles picking up Lubomir Visnovsky (24), or taking Shane Bendera over Roman Cechmanek (29), or Peter Zingoni over Lubomir Sekeras (31).

We have no idea what MacLean's plan was, or if there was one. There was enough experienced European talent and enough productive NHLers in the expansion draft to have made this a very good team right off the bat. If he didn't want to do that but wanted to draft well and grow slowly, then the scattershot method of drafting was the worst thing possible.

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02-12-2013, 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
I'd be very interested in two things:
  • An evaluation of whether or not the players in question were actually any good on the ice when MacLean was putting them in (given his reputation for rushing folks), and
  • A similar evaluation of the drafting ability of guys like Mike Milbury and Ken Holland - y'know, so we can have an idea of where such things fall.
This is why simply going off games played is only slightly meaningful. It's a lens that finds Mike Rupp to have been as good a pick as Ryan Suter because both have 500 NHL games. No consideration for who else was on the board, what caliber player was actually picked, or anything else like that.

We can go by All-Stars drafted, which would be a bit more meaningful. It wouldn't be perfect by any means, since good second-liners don't usually make the ASG, but it's another piece to a larger puzzle.

Doug MacLean: 1 (Rick Nash)
Don Waddell (a dismal drafter as well): 3 (Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, Tobias Enstrom), plus three more players better than Dougie's second-best pick of Klesla (Braydon Coburn, Kari Lehtonen, Ondrej Pavelec. I could argue for Bryan Little as well, but that's just laboring the point.)

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