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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread III

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Old
02-11-2013, 07:41 PM
  #676
Leaf Lander
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Ok ill pick within ano hr or so

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02-11-2013, 08:14 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Ok ill pick within ano hr or so
aki breg

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02-11-2013, 08:32 PM
  #678
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Which bregs the questions, is he a number frou D?

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02-11-2013, 09:02 PM
  #679
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Leafs pick


Alex mogilny

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02-11-2013, 09:05 PM
  #680
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Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Leafs pick


Alex mogilny
Normally I would post ''what the ****'', but then I remembered your second line C was Sundin. Those two were magic together.

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02-11-2013, 09:34 PM
  #681
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Leaf Lander just ruined my night.

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Old
02-11-2013, 09:38 PM
  #682
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Originally Posted by KingForsberg View Post
Leaf Lander just ruined my night.
Without looking...you must have Lafontaine

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Old
02-11-2013, 09:49 PM
  #683
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Without looking...you must have Lafontaine
Yesss sir.

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Old
02-11-2013, 10:05 PM
  #684
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
LOL, Id like to see that list, because he's easily top 5-10.
Ovechkin
Crosby
Kovalchuk
Malkin
*******
Iginla
*****
Datsyuk
Thornton
Hossa
Zetterberg
St. Louis
******
*****
Alfredsson
Sedin
*********
*******
Selanne
*******

a couple things to note:

1. GVT values goals more than assists.
2. GVT definitely demonstrates that as valuable as being in the lineup is, a player who scores more PPG but the same amount of points in fewer games, is more valuable. Crosby was 4th in GVT among centers in 2011 despite being 7th in goals 15th in points. Apparetntly that higher level of production in a short time can be demonstrated to be worth more wins over a season.
3. This is simply a list of "GVT compiled" so a few phenoms haven't had the time to get on the list, while guys like Zetterberg and Hossa got there with excellent year after excellent year. (Hossa, for example, peaked at 6th in points, and wasn't top-10 other than that)
4. icetime is taken into account for the simple reason that if you are on the ice more (particularly on the PP) you should score more. (this is how Mike Fisher and his 36 points actually earned a negative GVT in 2011)

overall, I can't really disagree with this list, and it even doesn't account for the fact that he had an elite linemate and the most offensive zone starts in the league over this time.

Just to look at Datsyuk as an example of a guy no one singled out as better immediately; he has 34 fewer points in 51 fewer games, and though he is low on goals himself, he has 47% more than Sedin since the lockout.

Or Iginla, who's got 31 fewer points in 12 fewer games, but with much less help and with over double the goals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
It took over 250 points but here it comes.

First dismissing my posts using GHL, which every GM in the ATD has used.

Secondly excusing Sedins Hart voting because "his votes were only due to points he scored and the system he played in"

Whats next? Charlie Conacher being a bargain basement 2nd liner..
I'm not dismissing GHL, I'm pointing out that he's only as credible as any one person, and is far from a primary source. Do you disagree with that?

Secondly, I'm curious, what do you disagree with about Sedin? That he's had an elite linemate for his entire prime (and life, TBH)? Or that he starts more of his shifts in the offensive zone than anyone else in the league? Or that those things matter and he would have scored fewer points with lesser linemates and/or fewer offensive zone starts?

And actually, Charlie Conacher is more of an average 3rd liner. Poor longevity. But you'll need a guy to work the corners for him. And a playmaker.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Disagree. Hart voting (at least recently) generally follows the best forwards on the best teams. Henrik has been rightly seen as being the driving force behind one of the best teams in the league. If he'd put up the same scoring finishes in Edmonton, he wouldn't have the same Hart results. As I believe that it is more valuable to be great for a great team than for a bad one, I don't have a problem with players like Henrik getting rewarded more for what they do than big scorers on garbage teams.
Sturm, you're exceptionally smart and never make a mistake, but where are you getting this from?

2006:
art ross winner = hart
2nd in scoring = 2nd in hart
3rd/4th in scoring = 3rd/4th among forwards in hart voting
1st, 4th, 5th overall teams had no hart vote-getting forwards

2007:
art ross winner = hart
2nd/3rd in scoring = 3rd/2nd in hart voting among forwards
only apparent "best forwards on best team" credit went to two on Buffalo (7th, 9th, but only on 11 and 4 of 143 ballots). No one on 1st overall Detroit was there.

2008:
1/2/3 in scoring = 1/2/3 in Hart
4th/5th in scoring = 5th/6th in Hart among forwards
The guy in 4th was further behind in scoring but led a pretty good team in scoring by 15 points

2009:
1/2 in scoring = 2/1 in Hart
3/4/5 in scoring = 5/3/4 in Hart among forwards
Thornton was the "best forward on the best team" and only got token votes

2010:
1/2/3 in scoring = 1/2/3 in Hart
5th in scoring = 4th in Hart
the best forward was on the best team.

2011:
1/2/3 in scoring = 2/3/1 in Hart
no apparent "best player on best team" credit to players on 2nd-7th best teams in the league, it clearly followed scoring race

2012:
1/2/3/4 in scoring = 1/2/3/4 in Hart
Sedin may have earned "best player on best team" credit this year but he was named top-5 on just 10 of 150 ballots so let's not get carried away and pretend this means anything.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think that Henrik winning the Hart over Crosby and Ovechkin because he got 3 more points than them (while many fewer goals than either and much less defensive work than Crosby) was a joke, but I don't want to fight that old battle again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
It was, rest assured. It was under the clever guise of "well, look, he carried the team without his [faithful linemate]" well, yes, but Crosby's never had a linemate like that and he still carries the team. Crosby plays with static producer and twice-waived XXXXX XXXXXX and third liner XXXXXX XXXXXX who accepts passes about as well as Braylon Edwards.

It was a Hart-jacking of the second degree. To either Crosby or Ovechkin.

The Sedin's are very good, but a touch over-hyped, IMO. Not as great as of some of their lofty numbers would indicate. What I say isn't quantifiable, it's just a product of watching - a matter of preference I guess. They're terrific, don't get me wrong. But the praise seems to fill up above the rim sometimes I feel...
I agree with both of you 100%.

I found it hard to believe anyone could have watched all three players and said of Sedin "my friends, that is a league MVP right there. "

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Unless he has some intangibles I don't know about, I think Morris is a step down from Foyston and Fredrickson, but only one step.
agree. Though I like him a lot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jafar View Post
Huh , beat me to it , sounds like AAA2011 all over again.

****ing barry gibbs.
LOL!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
After very careful deliberations, the Minnesota Fighting Saints will complete their second line with...



Baldy Northcott, LW

I PMed LL, but could someone notify him using his preferred methods?
I sent him a message by carrier seagull.

Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Normally I would post ''what the ****'', but then I remembered your second line C was Sundin. Those two were magic together.
still.... - this could have waited 100 more picks.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-11-2013 at 10:11 PM.
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Old
02-11-2013, 10:09 PM
  #685
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We'll continue to build our second line with the gritty goal-scorer Cecil Dillon, RW



excellent bio from EB.

VanI/Hedberg notified.

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Old
02-11-2013, 10:10 PM
  #686
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
still.... - this could have waited 100 more picks.
Could have and was looking at him... but you can't deny Leaf Land is building a special...

X-Lemieux-Middleton
Leclair-Sundin-Mogilny

Vasiliev-Lapointe

Bower

Not many teams at this point can say they have a great of all time like Lemieux... a sound top pairing... a full 2nd line... and a top starter.... really strong basis and really he just needs a pylon (in a All Time Draft sense) for Lemieux to bounce pucks off... I dread having to face Lemieux and Middleton at some point as puck handlers...

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Old
02-11-2013, 10:15 PM
  #687
Hawkey Town 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
Could have and was looking at him... but you can't deny Leaf Land is building a special...

X-Lemieux-Middleton
Leclair-Sundin-Mogilny

Vasiliev-Lapointe

Bower

Not many teams at this point can say they have a great of all time like Lemieux... a sound top pairing... a full 2nd line... and a top starter.... really strong basis and really he just needs a pylon (in a All Time Draft sense) for Lemieux to bounce pucks off... I dread having to face Lemieux and Middleton at some point as puck handlers...
Bower is not a top starter...I don't even have him in the top half of ATD starters...I'd call him average.

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Old
02-11-2013, 10:23 PM
  #688
monster_bertuzzi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
Could have and was looking at him... but you can't deny Leaf Land is building a special...

X-Lemieux-Middleton
Leclair-Sundin-Mogilny

Vasiliev-Lapointe

Bower

Not many teams at this point can say they have a great of all time like Lemieux... a sound top pairing... a full 2nd line... and a top starter.... really strong basis and really he just needs a pylon (in a All Time Draft sense) for Lemieux to bounce pucks off... I dread having to face Lemieux and Middleton at some point as puck handlers...
He's doing pretty damn well so far, but we're not even at the halfway mark yet.

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Old
02-11-2013, 10:26 PM
  #689
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Or that he starts more of his shifts in the offensive zone than anyone else in the league? Or that those things matter and he would have scored fewer points with lesser linemates and/or fewer offensive zone starts?
I think his zone starts are balanced out a bit by playing about two minutes less a game than most top lines (in 09-10, Henrik averaged 19:41 per game, compared to Ovechkin's 21:47 and Crosby's 21:57)

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Old
02-11-2013, 10:36 PM
  #690
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I really don't understand the love for Mogilny and Sundin together. They bascially had one pretty good, but not great regular season on the same line... Meh. Mogilny and Lafontaine only had one good season together too, but at least it was a career season for both of them

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Old
02-11-2013, 10:38 PM
  #691
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I really don't understand the love for Mogilny and Sundin together. They bascially had one pretty good, but not great regular season on the same line... Meh. Mogilny and Lafontaine only had one good season together too, but at least it was a career season for both of them
I was just trying to justify to myself Leaf Landers pick...

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02-11-2013, 10:41 PM
  #692
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I think his zone starts are balanced out a bit by playing about two minutes less a game than most top lines (in 09-10, Henrik averaged 19:41 per game, compared to Ovechkin's 21:47 and Crosby's 21:57)
Someone on the history board (I think it was either Vadim or MS) said that they thought the obsession with offensive zone starts actually made the Sedins less effective as overall players

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02-11-2013, 10:49 PM
  #693
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
I was just trying to justify to myself Leaf Landers pick...
Fair enough. As great as arrbez's team was last year, I thought Mogilny-Lafontaine got a little too much love for one great season together. And Mogilny and Sundin bascially accomplished nothing together in a historical sense, so they really shouldn't get some mythical chemistry boost just for playing together

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02-11-2013, 10:52 PM
  #694
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I think his zone starts are balanced out a bit by playing about two minutes less a game than most top lines (in 09-10, Henrik averaged 19:41 per game, compared to Ovechkin's 21:47 and Crosby's 21:57)
Hey, there's no "them" right now, only "he"!

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Someone on the history board (I think it was either Vadim or MS) said that they thought the obsession with offensive zone starts actually made the Sedins less effective as overall players
yeah, I think it was Vadim.

but it doesn't really hold water.

standard usage = 75-80 point players.

current usage = 85-110 point players.

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02-11-2013, 10:54 PM
  #695
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Fair enough. As great as arrbez's team was last year, I thought Mogilny-Lafontaine got a little too much love for one great season together. And Mogilny and Sundin bascially accomplished nothing together in a historical sense, so they really shouldn't get some mythical chemistry boost just for playing together
I think Sundin and Almo are good enough on their own to make up 2/3 of a solid 2nd line anyways, I don't think LL is building something 'special' or has the team to beat so far, though.

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02-11-2013, 10:59 PM
  #696
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Someone on the history board (I think it was either Vadim or MS) said that they thought the obsession with offensive zone starts actually made the Sedins less effective as overall players
That's vadim. I believe he argues that since the coach game plans around getting them in ideal situations, they haven't developed the mental edge to be players who excel in all situations - which they have the capability to do. Basically the opposite of the Hitchcock-Modano relationship.

The zone start thing can be overblown as well. It's a much bigger factor in shot-based stats like Corsi than in actually scoring points because offensive zone faceoffs lead to low percentage shots compared to chances off the rush. Stats guys who use Corsi are right to emphasize zone starts. If you look at points it isn't such a big deal, especially since the zone start maximization cuts their TOI.

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02-11-2013, 11:42 PM
  #697
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Can anyone take a list?

VanI's in this thread but I don't think he's at his comp, and I don't really feel like waiting around any more.

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02-11-2013, 11:43 PM
  #698
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Can anyone take a list?

VanI's in this thread but I don't think he's at his comp, and I don't really feel like waiting around any more.
I can take it.

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02-11-2013, 11:52 PM
  #699
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List sent.

Thanks again.

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Old
02-12-2013, 12:32 AM
  #700
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Fair enough. As great as arrbez's team was last year, I thought Mogilny-Lafontaine got a little too much love for one great season together. And Mogilny and Sundin bascially accomplished nothing together in a historical sense, so they really shouldn't get some mythical chemistry boost just for playing together
Agreed. Also, Mogilny may have been available a full 2 rounds later where arrbez took him with the 2nd to last pick of the 10th round at 319 last year.

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