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OT: Northeast US Losing Population, Growth In Sun Belt, West, South

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Old
02-12-2013, 11:40 AM
  #51
tarheelhockey
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Originally Posted by GuelphStormer View Post
oh yee of little faith ... you can do both at the same time.
I'd like to see how you swing a hammer

Anyway, my point is that this "MY generation would live in a closet as long as it's above a subway stop!" line of thinking lasts up until about age 25, when the reality hits home that you can't live in a closet with 2 dogs and a baby. When people form families, they need more space. That's why suburbs exist in the first place.

I say all this having at one point lived in an urban townhouse with 2 dogs and a baby. Even though that lifestyle was fun in the short run, there are a hundred little things that make it incompatible with raising a family. It's a logistical thing, having to do with personal issues like money and transportation which are not connected to generational attitudes.

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Old
02-12-2013, 12:26 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I'd like to see how you swing a hammer

Anyway, my point is that this "MY generation would live in a closet as long as it's above a subway stop!" line of thinking lasts up until about age 25, when the reality hits home that you can't live in a closet with 2 dogs and a baby. When people form families, they need more space. That's why suburbs exist in the first place.

I say all this having at one point lived in an urban townhouse with 2 dogs and a baby. Even though that lifestyle was fun in the short run, there are a hundred little things that make it incompatible with raising a family. It's a logistical thing, having to do with personal issues like money and transportation which are not connected to generational attitudes.
25? You're giving too much credit. With this generation, it's maybe 30-35 before they decide they want to grow up.

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02-12-2013, 12:56 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I'd like to see how you swing a hammer

Anyway, my point is that this "MY generation would live in a closet as long as it's above a subway stop!" line of thinking lasts up until about age 25, when the reality hits home that you can't live in a closet with 2 dogs and a baby. When people form families, they need more space. That's why suburbs exist in the first place.

I say all this having at one point lived in an urban townhouse with 2 dogs and a baby. Even though that lifestyle was fun in the short run, there are a hundred little things that make it incompatible with raising a family. It's a logistical thing, having to do with personal issues like money and transportation which are not connected to generational attitudes.
No way man. I plan never to get married. IceAce and you are on notice, I plan to live the Jeter/Clooney lifestyle.

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Old
02-12-2013, 12:58 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by MartysBetterThanYou View Post
Then how come the states with the highest incomes, best ranking schools, and lowest violent crime rates are all in these aging Northeastern states? Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Maryland routinely lead the nation in many measurements of prosperity.
He won't answer that because the truth is when you move to the south you get paid less. NY state is also very very safe and prestigious and expensive

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02-12-2013, 01:21 PM
  #55
tarheelhockey
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Originally Posted by IceAce View Post
25? You're giving too much credit. With this generation, it's maybe 30-35 before they decide they want to grow up.
Growing up and getting married are, unfortunately, two different things

But to put a finer point on the marriage age, the average first marriage is around age 27 and 70% of couples move in together before they get married.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1385548.html

Average age of first child? 25.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_maternal_age


Urbanists have been predicting for ages that young people would grow up and want to leave the suburbs for the city. Which they do, temporarily, the same as their parents did at the same age. It seems that urbanists often fail to consider that young people choose their places of residence based on different factors than older people, not because of a generation gap but because they are in a different time of life. Ultimately it comes back to the same set of reasons that people are leaving one region and moving to another -- money, amenities, quality of life, career and family priorities. And there's really nothing wrong with that, at all. It's just the way life plays out.

BTW, I am very much a lover of cities. It's not that I don't appreciate what they have to offer, or that I think the suburbs are "better" in any particular way. But having been an enthusiast about urban life at one point, I've learned to be a little more realistic about why it's largely limited to young people.

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02-12-2013, 01:24 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Melrose Munch View Post
He won't answer that because the truth is when you move to the south you get paid less.
And things cost a lot less too. A LOT less. Enough to make a substantial difference in your quality of life, provided you can find an equivalent job to what you were doing before.

Don't you think people do the math before moving a thousand miles to an unfamiliar place?

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02-12-2013, 01:36 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
And things cost a lot less too. A LOT less. Enough to make a substantial difference in your quality of life, provided you can find an equivalent job to what you were doing before.

Don't you think people do the math before moving a thousand miles to an unfamiliar place?
Fair enough.

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Old
02-12-2013, 01:42 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Don't you think people do the math before moving a thousand miles to an unfamiliar place?
gary bettman didn't in 1996.

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02-12-2013, 01:46 PM
  #59
tarheelhockey
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Originally Posted by GuelphStormer View Post
gary bettman didn't in 1996.
Like I said -- provided you are staying at a similar income level.

Believe me, there are plenty of people who "Jets" themselves by moving down here with no actual job waiting for them.

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02-12-2013, 01:50 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Growing up and getting married are, unfortunately, two different things

But to put a finer point on the marriage age, the average first marriage is around age 27 and 70% of couples move in together before they get married.
It's important to note that the basic argument is true though. As generations progress, they tend to have fewer kids and fewer marriages. It doesn't help that my generation (I'll be 25 this year) grew up in mostly broken homes, with record divorce rates. When you couple that with the financial crunch and the increasing cost of education, it's not hard to see the trend towards smaller living. No doubt an affordable house in the burbs makes more sense than a condo downtown, but that conversation is happening increasingly later in life for most, myself included. This is also being fueled by major changes in consumer habits, most notably how we eat. Since the 70s, there's been a very dramatic shift from home cooked meals and grocery shopping to eating out. Having a large variety of dining options available is part of the appeal dense cities have. Age plays a factor, sure, but there are long running trends at work here.

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02-12-2013, 02:05 PM
  #61
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It's important to note that the basic argument is true though. As generations progress, they tend to have fewer kids and fewer marriages. It doesn't help that my generation (I'll be 25 this year) grew up in mostly broken homes, with record divorce rates. When you couple that with the financial crunch and the increasing cost of education, it's not hard to see the trend towards smaller living. No doubt an affordable house in the burbs makes more sense than a condo downtown, but that conversation is happening increasingly later in life for most, myself included. This is also being fueled by major changes in consumer habits, most notably how we eat. Since the 70s, there's been a very dramatic shift from home cooked meals and grocery shopping to eating out. Having a large variety of dining options available is part of the appeal dense cities have. Age plays a factor, sure, but there are long running trends at work here.
This is all very true, but it's happening at a creep and not in a linear fashion. The trend of fewer people marrying is countered by an increase in the number of marriages per person. The trend of people having kids at a later age is countered by kids staying at home till a later age. The demand for denser amenities is largely being supplied by the growth of amenities in the suburbs. Sparsely populated suburban areas are being filled in with infrastructure and commercial development, which raises property values and forces "starter home" development even farther to the fringe, which in turn pushes demand farther outward. The former suburban edge of the city from two or three generations ago is now considered "downtown" in a lot of places and attracting denser development in its own right (Atlanta being a prime example).

I'm not saying these trends are good, but they are real. The downtown-development boom of the early 2000s was a much needed shot in the arm for urban areas, but it didn't have nearly the far-reaching effects that urbanists predicted (and I include myself as one of those who was cheering on the parade of new condo towers). If anything, the biggest change is simply that we see people going to more efficient cars and smaller houses... in the suburbs. People have made very small, very subtle shifts but a significant difference in society is not evident at all from where I'm sitting.

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Old
02-12-2013, 02:06 PM
  #62
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The NHL should capitalize on this and put a team in the population center of the U.S. and have them move every ten years when that officially changes.



Done deal, equal travel for fans to the north, south, east and west. Let's all go catch a.... uh.... Texas County Wanderers game!

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Old
02-12-2013, 03:02 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I'd like to see how you swing a hammer

Anyway, my point is that this "MY generation would live in a closet as long as it's above a subway stop!" line of thinking lasts up until about age 25, when the reality hits home that you can't live in a closet with 2 dogs and a baby. When people form families, they need more space. That's why suburbs exist in the first place.

I say all this having at one point lived in an urban townhouse with 2 dogs and a baby. Even though that lifestyle was fun in the short run, there are a hundred little things that make it incompatible with raising a family. It's a logistical thing, having to do with personal issues like money and transportation which are not connected to generational attitudes.
The generation of today is perfectly fine with having 0.2 kids (statistically speaking) so suburbs may on a downhill definitely. Cities everywhere are doing more and more compact building. Even Quebec City who has one of the lowest unemployment rates in North America. Constructors everywhere are buying bungalows, putting them to ground and building 8-10 condos on a 2 story building.

The problem is, back in the 80s, cities developed wide and large. They put sewers and unlimited water supply in middle of nowhere, but today, when those utilities have reached their useful age, and need to be changed, it's a hell of a pain to have to excavate 100s of miles of street roads and spend millions and millions in repairs. So cities have been waking up and started developing a bit more in their core instead of going for the big green plains on the outskirts. Back in 2000, a bungalow on the outskirts of Quebec was 120k, 150k for a nice one with a pool and big terrain. While a condo downtown was 200-250k. Today, the same bungalow is 400k and the condo downtown is 425k.

Working for a school board, I can tell you that most young families of today live in the pain life of dump the kids at 6:30AM at the kindergarten, commute to work for two hours, work, commute back for two hours, pick up the kids from kindergarten at 6pm and go home. And all that just to be able to afford that crappy 300-400k bungalow with a pool that you have time to use twice per summer.

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02-12-2013, 05:09 PM
  #64
tarheelhockey
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Originally Posted by powerstuck View Post
The generation of today is perfectly fine with having 0.2 kids (statistically speaking) so suburbs may on a downhill definitely. Cities everywhere are doing more and more compact building. Even Quebec City who has one of the lowest unemployment rates in North America. Constructors everywhere are buying bungalows, putting them to ground and building 8-10 condos on a 2 story building.
I don't think we can speak in terms of "everywhere" if we're bringing Quebec City into the discussion. Canadian cities develop differently than American cities for a variety of reasons, and I don't think we can really say that there are singular trends that affect Quebec City, Vancouver, Miami and Dallas equally.

Quote:
The problem is, back in the 80s, cities developed wide and large. They put sewers and unlimited water supply in middle of nowhere, but today, when those utilities have reached their useful age, and need to be changed, it's a hell of a pain to have to excavate 100s of miles of street roads and spend millions and millions in repairs. So cities have been waking up and started developing a bit more in their core instead of going for the big green plains on the outskirts.
I know what you're saying here about the pendulum swinging back toward core development, but I think you're giving a partial view that excludes some pretty important factors.

This process began as far back as the 1920s with streetcar suburbs, accelerated in the 1950s with automobiles and highway development, and reached a crisis point in the 1980s and 1990s. The bounce-back actually began about 20 years ago and slowed down dramatically in the past 5 years as real estate values crashed. Looking only at the past 20 years as a sort of linear trend is deceptive.

Also, while it's a pain to completely replace suburban infrastructure, that doesn't mean the solution is to abandon it. I think most city planners would say that the ideal solution is to enhance infrastructure where it already exists and use it to build more intelligently in places where people want to be. That's why "new urban" theory tends to focus around town-center development in the suburbs.


Quote:
Back in 2000, a bungalow on the outskirts of Quebec was 120k, 150k for a nice one with a pool and big terrain. While a condo downtown was 200-250k. Today, the same bungalow is 400k and the condo downtown is 425k.
I don't want to get into an extended debate about real estate values -- but suffice it to say, what you are describing is not a sustainable trend. Reference: the past 5 years.

Quote:
Working for a school board, I can tell you that most young families of today live in the pain life of dump the kids at 6:30AM at the kindergarten, commute to work for two hours, work, commute back for two hours, pick up the kids from kindergarten at 6pm and go home. And all that just to be able to afford that crappy 300-400k bungalow with a pool that you have time to use twice per summer.
Again, I don't want to get into an extended debate about this -- but suffice it to say, a 4-hour daily commute is not at all representative of "most' young families' experience. If anything, you're just speaking in pure stereotype in that paragraph.

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Old
02-12-2013, 05:40 PM
  #65
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For ourselves, we skipped the suburb stage, and went straight to the "acreage in the boonies + pied a terre" stage. In the end, the costs are about the same, but we get to actually fulfill both our pastoral + "cultural" needs instead of compromising both in the suburbs.

Plus we have room to grow our own heritage breed hogs, and consequently, make the best ****ing bacon you will ever taste.

But to each their own - not going to even hint at suggesting that what works for us works for everyone (or anyone) else.

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02-13-2013, 01:21 AM
  #66
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All this talk of city vs. suburb is sweet, but the simple fact remains how we know cities/suburbs today will be totally different by 2050.

According to a chart in the latest Bloomberg Businessweek, the entire world is on the verge of facing a reproductive recession. EVERYONE all over are having less kids. In America right now, for example, 19 percent of Americans are 60 or older. By 2050, it will jump to 27 percent. Last year, one out of nine people in the WORLD were 60 or older. By 2050? That demographic will outnumber children (0-14) for the first time in history. That same year, SIXTY percent of Japan's population will be 60 or older. More Depends will be bought in Tokyo than Huggies. Think about that.

And to make it related to hockey... who will be around to play this young man's game? Canada is in the same 25-55 percent range the USA will be in in 2050, as will the entirity of Europe, Russia, CHINA, SE Asia, Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Basically, the crush of Baby Boomers and those same folks not having kids (followed by my generation not having kids) is going to lead to a whole new world come mid-century.

And oh, I love the suburbs. It rocks. There's a certain niceness for living in an urban core, but I've spent my entire life in west-coast style cities, which are spread out. Couldn't imagine living in a confined space such as NYC or Boston. That said, I love vibrant downtowns and glad they are there and that people use them.

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Old
02-13-2013, 06:39 AM
  #67
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People from the North are tired of being cold. My father is telling me every day he can't stand it.

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