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Old
02-11-2013, 11:13 PM
  #226
RexFeral
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At this rate, I bet DW tanks this season and goes for Monahan. And some more good news is that the 67s are likely to get Sean Day (2016 draft?) so when we finish dead last in the 15/16 season, we can draft a 67 first overall!

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02-11-2013, 11:34 PM
  #227
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Cheechoo does not count as a hit for a mid-to-late first because he was a 2nd round pick. The reason why you can't make the argument that he would be a first round pick and a hit for the Sharks is because if he was a 1st round pick, it wasn't going to be the Sharks picking him. He simply doesn't count.
Eh, fair point. Basically, he was an example of how Burke does in the 16-30 range of the draft.

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Goc is a miss for the expectations of this particular area. First round picks that convert should be top six forwards or top four d-men. Otherwise, your expectation levels of these picks are too low. Goc is a bust in this regard but he had a lot more promise than most gave him credit for and the Joe Thornton trade essentially killed that hope.
I don't necessarily agree, as it is not all hit or miss. I think the emphasis on should is too strong. A late-first should not be considered a bust if it ends up in a 3rd line forward or #4/5 defenseman. That is right in line. I believe only 33% or so of players picked from 16-30 go on to have a career of more than 150 games in the NHL. Goc must be on 400+...

So I think it is grossly unfair to say "hit or bust". It is more appropriate to say "outstanding", "exceeds expecations", "acceptable", "bust"

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Morris was an injury-riddled player even before the Sharks picked him but they took that chance and it burned them. There's no pass for that to me.
Uh, was he? I remember that he got into a car accident a year or so after being drafted that completlely derailed his development.

Personally, I saw Morris play and thought he was a fantastic pick. Good wheels, great hands, great head for the game. San Jose thought very highly of him; they essentially ceded a 2nd-round-pick when they choose to sign him, knowing there was a good chance that injuries would force him to retire. That is how highly they thought of his talent.

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Bernier is a 4th liner. A failure for his expectations which was a top line power forward at his best and more realistically a 2nd line power forward like Clowe but that was a bust.
I think it is very unfair to any player drafted 16th to say you have to realistically be a 2nd-tier power forward. Bernier is a disappointment, but not a bust, as he's going to have a decent NHL career when all is said and done, which is very good compared to others taken between 10-20 (though obviously, not that particular draft).

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02-11-2013, 11:52 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
Eh, fair point. Basically, he was an example of how Burke does in the 16-30 range of the draft.



I don't necessarily agree, as it is not all hit or miss. I think the emphasis on should is too strong. A late-first should not be considered a bust if it ends up in a 3rd line forward or #4/5 defenseman. That is right in line. I believe only 33% or so of players picked from 16-30 go on to have a career of more than 150 games in the NHL. Goc must be on 400+...

So I think it is grossly unfair to say "hit or bust". It is more appropriate to say "outstanding", "exceeds expecations", "acceptable", "bust"



Uh, was he? I remember that he got into a car accident a year or so after being drafted that completlely derailed his development.

Personally, I saw Morris play and thought he was a fantastic pick. Good wheels, great hands, great head for the game. San Jose thought very highly of him; they essentially ceded a 2nd-round-pick when they choose to sign him, knowing there was a good chance that injuries would force him to retire. That is how highly they thought of his talent.



I think it is very unfair to any player drafted 16th to say you have to realistically be a 2nd-tier power forward. Bernier is a disappointment, but not a bust, as he's going to have a decent NHL career when all is said and done, which is very good compared to others taken between 10-20 (though obviously, not that particular draft).
It's fair enough with regards to Cheechoo but I don't really agree with it. Part of the loss of that spot as a pick is more competitors making draft selections.

I do actually agree that it's not all hit or miss...it just happens to be that way for me here with these picks and the expectations. You can have some leeway with a good 3rd liner or a very solid #5 but that hasn't happened either. Goc was not that in his time here. He was flip-flopped from the third and fourth line and his development stalled out.

As for Morris, there's no way to categorize that as anything other than a bust. It may not have been a talent issue but durability is every bit as key to a hockey player as talent. That was precisely the concern with Couture. Some of them pan out and some of them don't.

As for Bernier, that's exactly what he was projected to be when he was drafted. That's what the organization wanted out of him. He had the tools but lacked the drive for it...a common theme from their early misses. For the Sharks, Bernier is a bust. You don't make those picks with that much promise and praise and get what they did out of him and not consider him a bust.

I don't really mind the Bernier selection though. It's just too bad it didn't work out.

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02-12-2013, 12:29 AM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
It's fair enough with regards to Cheechoo but I don't really agree with it. Part of the loss of that spot as a pick is more competitors making draft selections.

I do actually agree that it's not all hit or miss...it just happens to be that way for me here with these picks and the expectations. You can have some leeway with a good 3rd liner or a very solid #5 but that hasn't happened either. Goc was not that in his time here. He was flip-flopped from the third and fourth line and his development stalled out.

As for Morris, there's no way to categorize that as anything other than a bust. It may not have been a talent issue but durability is every bit as key to a hockey player as talent. That was precisely the concern with Couture. Some of them pan out and some of them don't.

As for Bernier, that's exactly what he was projected to be when he was drafted. That's what the organization wanted out of him. He had the tools but lacked the drive for it...a common theme from their early misses. For the Sharks, Bernier is a bust. You don't make those picks with that much promise and praise and get what they did out of him and not consider him a bust.

I don't really mind the Bernier selection though. It's just too bad it didn't work out.
I'd surmise that Goc's issue was playing behind too many people; he just didn't get the ice time/confidence.

Personally speaking, I can generally say that I've been happy with the SJ picks. Some, like Bernier I liked at the time; others, like Morris, I grew to like. Of course, Hfboards tends to conflate things...I didn't really like the Setoguchi pick, but people here hated it...I am sure that colours my memory of the instnace. With players like Petrecki and Wishart, I was dismissive of; the board seemed to like both, especially Petrecki.

In regards to Morris, it depends. If he had a history of injury, and the Sharks took a chance on him, then you can fault them. However, I don't want to fault the Sharks if Morris only recieved his reputation as injury-prone after being drafted...after all, would you blame the Rangers for drafting Cherepanov?

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02-12-2013, 12:40 AM
  #230
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
I'd surmise that Goc's issue was playing behind too many people; he just didn't get the ice time/confidence.

Personally speaking, I can generally say that I've been happy with the SJ picks. Some, like Bernier I liked at the time; others, like Morris, I grew to like. Of course, Hfboards tends to conflate things...I didn't really like the Setoguchi pick, but people here hated it...I am sure that colours my memory of the instnace. With players like Petrecki and Wishart, I was dismissive of; the board seemed to like both, especially Petrecki.

In regards to Morris, it depends. If he had a history of injury, and the Sharks took a chance on him, then you can fault them. However, I don't want to fault the Sharks if Morris only recieved his reputation as injury-prone after being drafted...after all, would you blame the Rangers for drafting Cherepanov?
Do you really think it's appropriate to compare Morris' size as an issue potentially leading to what did end his hopes as an NHL'er to someone collapsing and dying at a hockey game at 19? Morris' issues is a common one for a lot of smaller players...and I'm not talking just in height. When you are a small player that doesn't carry a certain amount of weight, your ability to handle the rigors of a hockey season is naturally going to come into question.

The Cherepanov thing is not even remotely comparable and even that depends on who you want to believe.

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02-12-2013, 12:51 AM
  #231
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Do you really think it's appropriate to compare Morris' size as an issue potentially leading to what did end his hopes as an NHL'er to someone collapsing and dying at a hockey game at 19? Morris' issues is a common one for a lot of smaller players...and I'm not talking just in height. When you are a small player that doesn't carry a certain amount of weight, your ability to handle the rigors of a hockey season is naturally going to come into question.

The Cherepanov thing is not even remotely comparable and even that depends on who you want to believe.
But Morris's main injury issues were caused by that car-accident concussion....

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02-12-2013, 04:49 AM
  #232
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Morris was an injury-riddled player even before the Sharks picked him but they took that chance and it burned them. There's no pass for that to me.
I'm not certain this is true.

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02-12-2013, 05:14 AM
  #233
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In the NHL this season, this is a list of players that have scored an NHL goal that played 30 or more games for the WorSharks since the start of the 2010-2011 season:
Jamie McGinn (BTW, I originally set the arbitrary line at 35, but as he was the first player I came to that had played for Worcester at all since the 10-11 season I dropped the number to 30, which is the number he played...and he played that many mostly for salary cap reasons.)
Tommy Wingels
Matt Irwin

That's it.

Let's go a step further...players that meet that criteria just on NHL rosters right now that have played in just 1 game
Jamie McGinn
Tommy Wingels
Justin Braun
James Sheppard (And we know without the lockout he wouldn't be on this list)
Frazer McLaren

It just seems to me if the mantra is "draft and develop" there'd be more guys on these lists.

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02-12-2013, 09:08 AM
  #234
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I'm not certain this is true.
I'm fairly certain it isn't true. Morris was a very good pick by the Sharks - his injury (concussion) problems started after he was drafted.

Between the car accident and another head injury, he was never the same. He was a dominant player for NE before though.


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02-12-2013, 10:11 AM
  #235
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Do you really think it's appropriate to compare Morris' size as an issue potentially leading to what did end his hopes as an NHL'er to someone collapsing and dying at a hockey game at 19? Morris' issues is a common one for a lot of smaller players...and I'm not talking just in height. When you are a small player that doesn't carry a certain amount of weight, your ability to handle the rigors of a hockey season is naturally going to come into question.

The Cherepanov thing is not even remotely comparable and even that depends on who you want to believe.
I don't think a massive concussion due to a car accident is common amongst players.

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02-12-2013, 10:16 AM
  #236
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I'm fairly certain it isn't true. Morris was a very good pick by the Sharks - his injury (concussion) problems started after he was drafted.

Between the car accident and another head injury, he was never the same. He was a dominant player for NE before though.
I remember his handful of games here...the kid could absolutely play.

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02-12-2013, 12:14 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by 210 View Post
In the NHL this season, this is a list of players that have scored an NHL goal that played 30 or more games for the WorSharks since the start of the 2010-2011 season:
Jamie McGinn (BTW, I originally set the arbitrary line at 35, but as he was the first player I came to that had played for Worcester at all since the 10-11 season I dropped the number to 30, which is the number he played...and he played that many mostly for salary cap reasons.)
Tommy Wingels
Matt Irwin

That's it.

Let's go a step further...players that meet that criteria just on NHL rosters right now that have played in just 1 game
Jamie McGinn
Tommy Wingels
Justin Braun
James Sheppard (And we know without the lockout he wouldn't be on this list)
Frazer McLaren

It just seems to me if the mantra is "draft and develop" there'd be more guys on these lists.
I use 80 games as my criteria for conversion. It eliminates guys who are given chances and fail. It eliminates guys who are purely emergency replacements. And it allows for defensive dmen who are unlikely to score. Your criteria is telling for two reasons as the Sharks haven't been handing out many chances and the way the offense runs in SJ really puts an extra hill in front of guys on the lower lines. The bottom 2 lines get VERY short shifts. The best chances go to those who get time on the top two lines like Wingels and even McGinn.

BTW, my criteria eliminates guys like McCarthy, McLaren, Mashinter and Cavanagh, even though they have scored.

HB,
The reason I use 91-03 is that it gives me exact numbers. The process to get them is burdensome (I am not likely to do it again). What it also did was tell me what to expect in terms of numbers getting through to the NHL and the Sharks later round drafting has fallen off from the 91-03 time frame. It is possible that DW's use of picks has killed some of that success. I don't have a comparative pick count (again the process to get that number is burdensome). Between 91 and 03 TO and StL wrote their own epitaph as they far and away traded picks for players like candy. Their total number of picks and where they picked were so far below the rest of the league that it is no wonder that they stumbled between 03 and 10.

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02-12-2013, 01:35 PM
  #238
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Making the cut off at 80 games is meaningless, both lists are 30 AHL games or more.

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02-12-2013, 01:40 PM
  #239
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I use 80 games as my criteria for conversion. It eliminates guys who are given chances and fail. It eliminates guys who are purely emergency replacements. And it allows for defensive dmen who are unlikely to score. Your criteria is telling for two reasons as the Sharks haven't been handing out many chances and the way the offense runs in SJ really puts an extra hill in front of guys on the lower lines. The bottom 2 lines get VERY short shifts. The best chances go to those who get time on the top two lines like Wingels and even McGinn.

BTW, my criteria eliminates guys like McCarthy, McLaren, Mashinter and Cavanagh, even though they have scored.

HB,
The reason I use 91-03 is that it gives me exact numbers. The process to get them is burdensome (I am not likely to do it again). What it also did was tell me what to expect in terms of numbers getting through to the NHL and the Sharks later round drafting has fallen off from the 91-03 time frame. It is possible that DW's use of picks has killed some of that success. I don't have a comparative pick count (again the process to get that number is burdensome). Between 91 and 03 TO and StL wrote their own epitaph as they far and away traded picks for players like candy. Their total number of picks and where they picked were so far below the rest of the league that it is no wonder that they stumbled between 03 and 10.
I get that, and that makes sense, but I still find the information only relevant to that time frame. Yes mistakes from back then do effect the team now, but you can't change the past. As long as they have improved, which I absolutely feel they have (substantially), that is all I care about. It's not like if you fire the entire scouting staff and hire a new one it is going to fix mistakes from 03 or something. You can only work forward and right now the Sharks drafting and scouting team seem to have learned from their mistakes and are making smarter choices.

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02-12-2013, 01:44 PM
  #240
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BTW, that 1 NHL game list should have Matt Pelech on it. It was a copy & paste error. My bad.

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02-12-2013, 01:50 PM
  #241
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I get that, and that makes sense, but I still find the information only relevant to that time frame. Yes mistakes from back then do effect the team now, but you can't change the past. As long as they have improved, which I absolutely feel they have (substantially), that is all I care about. It's not like if you fire the entire scouting staff and hire a new one it is going to fix mistakes from 03 or something. You can only work forward and right now the Sharks drafting and scouting team seem to have learned from their mistakes and are making smarter choices.
From 04-08 they fell on quantity (their strength). It is too early to tell since then. They are still selecting size over speed early with the Nieto exception. As opposed to others, I am not high on Coyle or Hertl although I readily admit that the jury is still out. They are no longer using top 10 picks for dmen which is an improvement. I think they need to move further and stay away from dmen entirely in the first round especially with their temptation to overemphasize size. IMO, they still haven't corrected their overemphasis on size in the early picks. I disagree in that they are still doing the same things which got them in trouble in the first place.

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02-12-2013, 02:01 PM
  #242
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They are still selecting size over speed early with the Nieto exception.
O'Regan is under 5'10".
Ryan is listed at 5"10".
DeMelo is listed as 6'. I stood next to him, I'm not convinced that's accurate.
Blackwell and Cody Ferriero are both under 6'.

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02-12-2013, 02:08 PM
  #243
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O'Regan is under 5'10".
Ryan is listed at 5"10".
DeMelo is listed as 6'. I stood next to him, I'm not convinced that's accurate.
Blackwell and Cody Ferriero are both under 6'.
You can add Chris Tierney ("listed" at 6'1 as well), Christophe Lalancette. They're putting less value on size these days.

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02-12-2013, 03:10 PM
  #244
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Does anyone here follow Christophe Lalancette? I remember liking his skill set at the draft.

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02-12-2013, 03:38 PM
  #245
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Does anyone here follow Christophe Lalancette? I remember liking his skill set at the draft.
I've seen a handful of his games. His offensive game continues to grow (14g, 29a in 49gp). He's a very good playmaker, seems to have pretty good vision, good 200 foot player and at 18 he's a leader on his team.

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02-12-2013, 03:40 PM
  #246
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O'Regan is under 5'10". 5th round
Ryan is listed at 5"10". 7th round
DeMelo is listed as 6'. I stood next to him, I'm not convinced that's accurate. 6th round
Blackwell 7th round and Cody Ferriero 5th round are both under 6'.
Easy was talking about early picks. In the late first and early second, the kids with the most talent are generally the smaller kids, because the big kids with skill go very early.

Just as an aside, I'd love to take a chance on Nic Petan this draft. He's only 5'9'', but he's insanely talented.

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02-12-2013, 04:14 PM
  #247
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Easy was talking about early picks. In the late first and early second, the kids with the most talent are generally the smaller kids, because the big kids with skill go very early.

Just as an aside, I'd love to take a chance on Nic Petan this draft. He's only 5'9'', but he's insanely talented.
5'9 is a little too small. Would not at all mind taking a flyer on him, but not with a first or second...

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02-12-2013, 04:16 PM
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5'9 is a little too small. Would not at all mind taking a flyer on him, but not with a first or second...
I wouldn't with a first, but I would with a late 2nd. Kid's slick as hell. No one touches him.

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02-12-2013, 04:21 PM
  #249
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I wouldn't with a first, but I would with a late 2nd. Kid's slick as hell. No one touches him.
It is a whole different ballgame in the NHL. No one touchs sin him juniors; suddenly he gets exposed in the NHL.

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02-12-2013, 04:28 PM
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It is a whole different ballgame in the NHL. No one touchs sin him juniors; suddenly he gets exposed in the NHL.
Of course not all small guys can translate to the NHL. But it's about time we took a chance on someone with huge upside.

Other guys on the smaller side (but not that small) that I'm interested in in the mid-late first are Arturri Lehkonen (5'10'', but good wheels and scoring at a .75 pace through ~40 games in the SM-Liiga against men) and Anthony Duclair (also 5'10'', but also great wheels and slick hands). These are the kind of guys we should be after. Worth noting that both are only about 150 points and both are July/August birthdates.

Ahhh, this draft is so exciting, and also gonna be on my birthday.

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