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All Encompassing Tanking/Rebuilding/Selling at Deadline Thread 2.0

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Old
02-13-2013, 10:27 PM
  #876
Teufelsdreck
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Markov for a 1st round pick
Cole for a 1st round pick
Bourque for a 1st round pick
Gionta for a 1st round pick
Plekanec for a 1st round pick


The cup will be ours!
Your brilliance astounds me.

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02-13-2013, 10:38 PM
  #877
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Markov for a 1st round pick
Cole for a 1st round pick
Bourque for a 1st round pick
Gionta for a 1st round pick
Plekanec for a 1st round pick


The cup will be ours!
All except for Pleks in this year's draft?

Actually you might be right. The funny thing is you don't realize it.

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Old
02-13-2013, 10:41 PM
  #878
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
Your brilliance astounds me.
Just for kicks... the last draft to be this deep was 2003.

Markov, Bourque, Cole and Gionta... 4 first round picks.

If we take the last four picks of 2003 we wind up with Jeff Tambelini, Patrick Eaves and... Corey Perry.

Keep laughing.

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Old
02-13-2013, 10:47 PM
  #879
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Markov for a 1st round pick
Cole for a 1st round pick
Bourque for a 1st round pick
Gionta for a 1st round pick
Plekanec for a 1st round pick


The cup will be ours!
not that I'm a fan of moving either Pleks or Markov for just a 1st... but if you think about it, having 6 first round picks, plus 3 2nd round picks, in a draft that has 4-6 guys in the top ten that look to be slam dunk future elite players & has scouts buzzing for the quality of depth in the top half of the draft (much like 2003), would be a pretty robust way to build a contender pretty quickly.

with 9 top-60 picks, a smart GM could easily get into the top-10, probably twice (not too mention if any of those 6 ended up top-10), and still keep a few other top-60 picks.

MaxPac - Desharnais - xxx
xxx - Eller - xxx
Prust - Galch - Gally
Moen - White - xxx

Subban - Gorges
Emelin - Diaz
Weber - Tinordi/Kaberle

Price

That's what we'd have left, plus ~23M$ in cap space (and the luxury of having Galch/Gally/Tinordi + another large crop of top-end young talent, all on ELC for the next 3-5 years).

4/5 physical dman: pick up one of Smid/Regher/Murray to solidify the defense (2-3 years) ~3-4M$
top-line fwd: throw big money at one of Semin/Perry/Clarkson (4-6 years) - ~6-7M$
top-6/9 wingers: throw money at 2 of Gagne/Clowe/Bouchard/Cleary/Macarthur (2-4 years) ~10M$ for both

it would be pretty hard to find 4-5 players worth spending 23M$ on, trades are also a possibility (made much easier by the 9 top-60 picks)

MaxPac - Desharnais - Perry/Semin/Clarkson
- Eller + 2 new wingers
Prust - Galch - Gally
Moen - White - Dumont

Subban - Gorges
Smid/Regher/Murray - Diaz
Weber - Emelin

that's a roster that is just as much a playoff team as our current one, AND would have that massive influx of elite prospects being slowly injected into the lineup over the next 2-4 years.


jeez... i know you were being sarcastic, but really, if we could walk out of this season with 23M$ in cap space and 5 extra first round picks, it would be HARD for any GM to not manage to build a perennial contender in a very short period of time.

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Old
02-13-2013, 10:49 PM
  #880
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
All except for Pleks in this year's draft?

Actually you might be right. The funny thing is you don't realize it.
Except that I doubt Bourque, Gionta or Cole nets you a 1st round pick. Id be reluctant to trade Markov, no return will outweigh what he currently brings to the team.

I also see teams being a lot less liberal throwing away 1st rounders in a deep draft.

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Old
02-13-2013, 10:52 PM
  #881
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
not that I'm a fan of moving either Pleks or Markov for just a 1st... but if you think about it, having 6 first round picks, plus 3 2nd round picks, in a draft that has 4-6 guys in the top ten that look to be slam dunk future elite players & has scouts buzzing for the quality of depth in the top half of the draft (much like 2003), would be a pretty robust way to build a contender pretty quickly.

with 9 top-60 picks, a smart GM could easily get into the top-10, probably twice (not too mention if any of those 6 ended up top-10), and still keep a few other top-60 picks.

MaxPac - Desharnais - xxx
xxx - Eller - xxx
Prust - Galch - Gally
Moen - White - xxx

Subban - Gorges
Emelin - Diaz
Weber - Tinordi/Kaberle

Price

That's what we'd have left, plus ~23M$ in cap space (and the luxury of having Galch/Gally/Tinordi + another large crop of top-end young talent, all on ELC for the next 3-5 years).

4/5 physical dman: pick up one of Smid/Regher/Murray to solidify the defense (2-3 years) ~3-4M$
top-line fwd: throw big money at one of Semin/Perry/Clarkson (4-6 years) - ~6-7M$
top-6/9 wingers: throw money at 2 of Gagne/Clowe/Bouchard/Cleary/Macarthur (2-4 years) ~10M$ for both

it would be pretty hard to find 4-5 players worth spending 23M$ on, trades are also a possibility (made much easier by the 9 top-60 picks)

MaxPac - Desharnais - Perry/Semin/Clarkson
- Eller + 2 new wingers
Prust - Galch - Gally
Moen - White - Dumont

Subban - Gorges
Smid/Regher/Murray - Diaz
Weber - Emelin

that's a roster that is just as much a playoff team as our current one, AND would have that massive influx of elite prospects being slowly injected into the lineup over the next 2-4 years.


jeez... i know you were being sarcastic, but really, if we could walk out of this season with 23M$ in cap space and 5 extra first round picks, it would be HARD for any GM to not manage to build a perennial contender in a very short period of time.
If we use 2003 as a model. A 15th overall pick lands you a shot at getting the following players...

Parise, Getzlaff, Richards, Perry, Kesler... not bad.

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Old
02-13-2013, 10:56 PM
  #882
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post

MaxPac - Desharnais - Perry/Semin/Clarkson
- Eller + 2 new wingers
Prust - Galch - Gally
Moen - White - Dumont

Subban - Gorges
Smid/Regher/Murray - Diaz
Weber - Emelin
In the short-term that is not a very good team. In the long-term we`re banking on too many unknowns. Also, not much veteran support to surround the youth, which could turn out bad.

If it were this easy, more teams would do it, but it seldom happens because it just isnt a sure fire way to build a contender. No matter how many 1st round picks you get, in the end, its still a gamble over a proven player.

As for the current team, aside from the D in the short-term, I dont think the habs are all in that bad a shape, long-term. A couple of prospects pan out (especially on D), one or two smart signings could be significant.

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Old
02-13-2013, 10:58 PM
  #883
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Except that I doubt Bourque, Gionta or Cole nets you a 1st round pick. Id be reluctant to trade Markov, no return will outweigh what he currently brings to the team.

I also see teams being a lot less liberal throwing away 1st rounders in a deep draft.
I doubt it too. But you're posting it like it would be a stupid thing for us to do.

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:00 PM
  #884
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
In the short-term that is not a very good team. In the long-term we`re banking on too many unknowns. Also, not much veteran support to surround the youth, which could turn out bad.

If it were this easy, more teams would do it, but it seldom happens because it just isnt a sure fire way to build a contender. No matter how many 1st round picks you get, in the end, its still a gamble over a proven player.

As for the current team, aside from the D in the short-term, I dont think the habs are all in that bad a shape, long-term. A couple of prospects pan out (especially on D), one or two smart signings could be significant.
What do we have to lose? Seriously... we'd be dealing away a bunch of vets who won't win anything with us anyway. If the picks don't work out we can replace them with more mediocre FAs and go back to fighting for 8th again...

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:00 PM
  #885
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I doubt it too. But you're posting it like it would be a stupid thing for us to do.
Actually, I posted it with the mindset that people think its easy to do.

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:00 PM
  #886
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Actually, I posted it with the mindset that people think its easy to do.
Yeah... I don't think so. In your next post you talk about how we're banking on "too many unknowns" so it sure sounds like you're telling us it would be a bad move.

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:04 PM
  #887
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
What do we have to lose? Seriously... we'd be dealing away a bunch of vets who won't win anything with us anyway. If the picks don't work out we can replace them with more mediocre FAs and go back to fighting for 8th again...
For one thing, you`d lose competitiveness in the short-term and maybe even long-term depending how long it takes for prospects to develop. Second, I doubt owners would buy into the idea of potentially losing over an extending period of time and potentially losing money.

Unfortunately, is a market society, what is to be lost be shipping away players is potential dollars. That is why every year we see teams wanting to be competitive no matter what rather than looking to sell players for futures. As an owner, you want to minimize uncertainty, dealing vets doing reasonably well for uncertainty in the future wont go over well with them.

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:06 PM
  #888
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Yeah... I don't think so. In your next post you talk about how we're banking on "too many unknowns" so it sure sounds like you're telling us it would be a bad move.
Actually yeah, I did do it with that mindset. Trading Cole, Gionta and Bourque for 1st rounders is a no brainer. Dealing Plekanec and Markov only for 1sts...not so smart.

Dealing Gionta, Bourque and Cole just to get rid of "mediocre vets who probably wont win anything", not so sure, especially since at this point, I doubt youd get anything more than a 3rd for either of the 3.

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:09 PM
  #889
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Actually yeah, I did do it with that mindset. Trading Cole, Gionta and Bourque for 1st rounders is a no brainer. Dealing Plekanec and Markov only for 1sts...not so smart.

Dealing Gionta, Bourque and Cole just to get rid of "mediocre vets who probably wont win anything", not so sure.
NO brainer... but reality is, chances than any of them fetch us a 1st rounder are slim to none.

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:14 PM
  #890
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For one thing, you`d lose competitiveness in the short-term and maybe even long-term depending how long it takes for prospects to develop. Second, I doubt owners would buy into the idea of potentially losing over an extending period of time and potentially losing money.
Competitiveness in the short term doesn't matter. In fact it would probably benefit us with a higher pick.

As for the owners... who the hell knows? Depends on his mindset. If he cares about cups though he'd be smart to do it.

And I don't see how losing those players condemns us to losing forever.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Unfortunately, is a market society, what is to be lost be shipping away players is potential dollars. That is why every year we see teams wanting to be competitive no matter what rather than looking to sell players for futures. As an owner, you want to minimize uncertainty, dealing vets doing reasonably well for uncertainty in the future wont go over well with them.
Again depends on your goals. If the target is 8th place you're right. If it's to win a cup then it's a different story.
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Actually yeah, I did do it with that mindset. Trading Cole, Gionta and Bourque for 1st rounders is a no brainer. Dealing Plekanec and Markov only for 1sts...not so smart.

Dealing Gionta, Bourque and Cole just to get rid of "mediocre vets who probably wont win anything", not so sure, especially since at this point, I doubt youd get anything more than a 3rd for either of the 3.
Okay, well your post to Millers Time suggests otherwise but you're definitely right about us not getting firsts for Cole Gionta or Bourque...

I think your post was more in the vein of... look how stupid these rebuilders are and you weren't counting on us coming back and showing you that it would actually benefit us. I guess it doesn't really matter though.

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Old
02-13-2013, 11:16 PM
  #891
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post

I think your post was more in the vein of... look how stupid these rebuilders are and you weren't counting on us coming back and showing you that it would actually benefit us. I guess it doesn't really matter though.
Nope, more in the vein of..."look at how easy these armchair GMs think trades are"

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02-13-2013, 11:20 PM
  #892
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Nope, more in the vein of..."look at how easy these armchair GMs think trades are"
Nobody has suggested that those players could get us a first. So either way, your post was a total fail.

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02-13-2013, 11:21 PM
  #893
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Nobody has suggested that those players could get us a first. So either way, your post was a total fail.
It didn't have a purpose other than to be stupid. No need to take it personally.

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02-13-2013, 11:23 PM
  #894
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
In the short-term that is not a very good team. In the long-term we`re banking on too many unknowns. Also, not much veteran support to surround the youth, which could turn out bad.
*this is all crazy talk anyways, were not getting 5 extra first round picks this year both b/c the team isn't moving all of those guys, and because many of them wouldn't get 1st picks* (imo)

caveat aside...

in the long term, we are always banking on many unknowns...

markov staying healthy and/or re-signing after next year = unknown
Gionta staying healthy, avoiding further decline next season, extending beyond next year = unknown

cole... bourque... same thing. Pleks is about the safest bet of that bunch to deliver what we need from him (in terms of minimum level).

I definitely agree with the importance of veteran support for youth... but on the other hand, we've had a pretty solid group of veterans the last 5-7 years, and our track record with "supporting youth" has been dismal.

I think that's more of an organizational thing, and with the right management/coaching support, I think Gorges/Prust/Moen + whatever 3-4 vets we added to fill out the roster, + MaxPac/Price/Subban growing into leadership roles, would be just fine.


Quote:
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If it were this easy, more teams would do it, but it seldom happens because it just isnt a sure fire way to build a contender. No matter how many 1st round picks you get, in the end, its still a gamble over a proven player.
ur right, ending up with 6 first round draft picks, in a draft viewed as the deepest in a decade (remains to be seen, of course), isn't "that easy"... but don't forget that this is your scenario (as tongue in cheek as it may have been).

luck is a factor, of course, but in having 6 first round picks (again, in a deep year), is about as surefire a way any team could get close to loading the odds in their favor that they end up with better player(s) than the veterans moved out.

what's more, in your scenario, the vets we are moving, while "proven" certainly aren't the type of players (except a healthy Markov, and in a reach, plekanec) that are hard to acquire.

factor in that 3 of them are on contracts that very few, if any, teams would give them were they UFA's tomorrow, and I'd say that the "gamble", in this scenario, is about as stacked in our favor as you can get.

it's like Vince Vaughn said in Swingers... "you always double down"...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
As for the current team, aside from the D in the short-term, I dont think the habs are all in that bad a shape, long-term. A couple of prospects pan out (especially on D), one or two smart signings could be significant.
agreed.

I'm not for moving Plekanec at this point (unless massive overpayment), ditto for Markov.

Gionta/Cole/Bourque, on the other hand, I would move if it meant adding a first round pick this year for any one of them.
there are more than enough average top-6 players available this summer as UFA's, likely a few more to come available as teams adjust to the cap reduction, and imo none of those 3 are giving us enough consistency of performance to keep them off the market at the right price.

how good our prospect/young player situation looks right now is exactly why I'd be in favor of "gambling" a bit on moving some of those vets.

add another 2-4 quality (even if not the Galch-type elite level) prospects to our group, and it would just put us in that much better of a situation to mould the franchise into the perennial winner we all want to enjoy.

it can certainly be done with some astute management of the players we have, it just might take a bit longer b/c the draft remains the single best way to quickly add elite level talent to an organization (not just in drafting/developing a stud, but also in leveraging quality prospects/picks into an already established elite player who for whatever reasons needs to get traded).

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02-13-2013, 11:23 PM
  #895
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It didn't have a purpose other than to be stupid. No need to take it personally.
I'll get over it. But you really did hurt my feelings dude.

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02-13-2013, 11:27 PM
  #896
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
*this is all crazy talk anyways, were not getting 5 extra first round picks this year both b/c the team isn't moving all of those guys, and because many of them wouldn't get 1st picks* (imo)

caveat aside...

in the long term, we are always banking on many unknowns...

markov staying healthy and/or re-signing after next year = unknown
Gionta staying healthy, avoiding further decline next season, extending beyond next year = unknown

cole... bourque... same thing. Pleks is about the safest bet of that bunch to deliver what we need from him (in terms of minimum level).

I definitely agree with the importance of veteran support for youth... but on the other hand, we've had a pretty solid group of veterans the last 5-7 years, and our track record with "supporting youth" has been dismal.

I think that's more of an organizational thing, and with the right management/coaching support, I think Gorges/Prust/Moen + whatever 3-4 vets we added to fill out the roster, + MaxPac/Price/Subban growing into leadership roles, would be just fine.




ur right, ending up with 6 first round draft picks, in a draft viewed as the deepest in a decade (remains to be seen, of course), isn't "that easy"... but don't forget that this is your scenario (as tongue in cheek as it may have been).

luck is a factor, of course, but in having 6 first round picks (again, in a deep year), is about as surefire a way any team could get close to loading the odds in their favor that they end up with better player(s) than the veterans moved out.

what's more, in your scenario, the vets we are moving, while "proven" certainly aren't the type of players (except a healthy Markov, and in a reach, plekanec) that are hard to acquire.

factor in that 3 of them are on contracts that very few, if any, teams would give them were they UFA's tomorrow, and I'd say that the "gamble", in this scenario, is about as stacked in our favor as you can get.

it's like Vince Vaughn said in Swingers... "you always double down"...



agreed.

I'm not for moving Plekanec at this point (unless massive overpayment), ditto for Markov.

Gionta/Cole/Bourque, on the other hand, I would move if it meant adding a first round pick this year for any one of them.
there are more than enough average top-6 players available this summer as UFA's, likely a few more to come available as teams adjust to the cap reduction, and imo none of those 3 are giving us enough consistency of performance to keep them off the market at the right price.

how good our prospect/young player situation looks right now is exactly why I'd be in favor of "gambling" a bit on moving some of those vets.

add another 2-4 quality (even if not the Galch-type elite level) prospects to our group, and it would just put us in that much better of a situation to mould the franchise into the perennial winner we all want to enjoy.

it can certainly be done with some astute management of the players we have, it just might take a bit longer b/c the draft remains the single best way to quickly add elite level talent to an organization (not just in drafting/developing a stud, but also in leveraging quality prospects/picks into an already established elite player who for whatever reasons needs to get traded).
I'm not for moving Plecs either. Not with the emergence of Galchenyuk. I thought Gally would be emerging two or three years down the road but with him coming up now it makes sense to hang onto him.

Markov though? We should maximize that asset as best we can.

With the East being in total shambles though, there's actually a pretty decent shot that we make the playoffs with him in the lineup though. I doubt the team would've dealt him to begin with but if we're going towards the playoffs its even less likely.

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02-13-2013, 11:37 PM
  #897
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Nobody has suggested that those players could get us a first. So either way, your post was a total fail.
and yet, you got the idea... "for kicks".

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02-14-2013, 12:03 AM
  #898
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Just for kicks... the last draft to be this deep was 2003.

Markov, Bourque, Cole and Gionta... 4 first round picks.

If we take the last four picks of 2003 we wind up with Jeff Tambelini, Patrick Eaves and... Corey Perry.

Keep laughing.
Fine. Just for fun, who are these four teams who would give us four first round pick?

Plus, I bet some of these veterans you wanted traded has non-moving clause.

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02-14-2013, 12:04 AM
  #899
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There is only so much demand for rentals every years, meanwhile there is always a supply.

A realistic haul, I think, might be one more first rounder and one more second.

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02-14-2013, 12:11 AM
  #900
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There is only so much demand for rentals every years, meanwhile there is always a supply.

A realistic haul, I think, might be one more first rounder and one more second.
If Cole plays like he did last year he's worth a first for sure. If he plays like he's playing now... forget about it.
Bourque would have to have a good year to get a first.
Gionta's not a first.

Markov is definitely a first if he plays well.
Plecs is definitely a first.


I think we waited too long to deal Cole.

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