If I am not mistaken, currently, Crosby is 4th all time in PPG, behind Mario, Bossy and that other good player who wore 99. He's an outstanding player, and congrats to him!
If I am not mistaken, currently, Crosby is 4th all time in PPG, behind Mario, Bossy and that other good player who wore 99. He's an outstanding player, and congrats to him!
The guy is pure work ethic. I've never seen any player work as hard as he has at getting better every year.
I've been watching hockey since the 80's, so I've seen some greats, there is a reason why so many future stars look up to the kid.
By the time he is done, only Gretzky, Lemieux, and Howe will be considered better forwards.
Maybe Richard too. But that will be 50/50 either way.
Let's wait awhile before placing him among the all time greats. Let's hope he can get a few injury-free seasons in to establish his legacy.
FWIW, I think his competitiveness, and his ability to adapt his game to whatever is needed to win, should make up for a lack of hardware when compared to others. He simply wins at every level he plays at.
I know the adjusted stats are not perfect and usually they tend to penalize 80's stars more than they should. But just for fun, lets see how some all-time greats managed in the same amount of games Crosby did. (I used full seasons so the games played is slightly different.)
Now, players do develop differently and have different roles. For example Jagr was not the main offensive winger in his first years as Crosby was main offensive center from day 1.
But, seems to me that Crosby has had the best start for his career except for Gretzky/Lemieux. Offensively speaking. I know that these numbers don't tell the whole story and should only be used as a part of evaluation.
But Crosby has the PPG finishes. The only question-mark with him should be the his health. I have no idea if he is going to burn out faster than Jagr or somebody else. But if he keeps up this production in a league that is most competitive since O6 era i think he should be able to lift himself in the tier between Gretzky/Lemieux and Jagr.
It's possible. Here's what his career could have looked like/might look like if he had the health of someone like Recchi (I'm basing this on pace and projection) and keeps his play up to realistic standards, I'll use comparable stars as parallels
18- 102
19- 120
20- 111
21- 103
22- 109
23- 130
24- 130 (he was actually on a 137 point pace)
25- 68
26- 120
27- 115
28- 80 (I'll throw in an injury plagued season for the hell of it)
29- 100
30- 100
31- 100 (Wrong side of 30 now... still putting up 100 points... Sakic was less talented and managed 118 points at this age so I don't think I'm being overly optimistic here)
32- 75 (another injury year, let's pretend it slows him down going forward)
33- 40 (lockout year for fun)
34- 85
35- 85 (Marty St. Louis is a similar player and scored 99 points at this age)
36- 80
37- 75
38- 70
Now he's up there with Selanne and Jagr
39- 65
40- 65
41- retired before Selanne
That's 2100 points, and that's with me including injury years, another lockout, and assuming he'll score less points than inferior players like Sakic and St. Louis and Selanne were doing at the same age. So I think I'm being fair and realistic... optimistic but not outrageously so. In a best case scenario, he could put up even more. And he actually might still have a chance (I'm not betting on that).
Last edited by revolverjgw: 02-14-2013 at 07:12 AM.
It's possible. Here's what his career could have looked like/might look like if he had the health of someone like Recchi (I'm basing this on pace and projection) and keeps his play up to realistic standards, I'll use comparable stars as parallels
18- 102
19- 120
20- 111
21- 103
22- 109
23- 130
24- 130 (he was actually on a 137 point pace)
25- 68
26- 120
27- 115
28- 80 (I'll throw in an injury plagued season for the hell of it)
29- 100
30- 100
31- 100 (Wrong side of 30 now... still putting up 100 points... Sakic was less talented and managed 118 points at this age so I don't think I'm being overly optimistic here)
32- 75 (another injury year, let's pretend it slows him down going forward)
33- 40 (lockout year for fun)
34- 85
35- 85 (Marty St. Louis is a similar player and scored 99 points at this age)
36- 80
37- 75
38- 70
Now he's up there with Selanne and Jagr
39- 65
40- 65
41- retired before Selanne
That's 2100 points, and that's with me including injury years, another lockout, and assuming he'll score less points than inferior players like Sakic and St. Louis and Selanne were doing at the same age. So I think I'm being fair and realistic... optimistic but not outrageously so. In a best case scenario, he could put up even more.
You realize that there is 12 100+ point seasons in that list. Guess how many players in the history of this game has ever had more?
Right, Gretzky had 14 in a very much higher scoring era.
Next is Lemieux with 10 and after that it is Stastny with 7 and after that bunch of 6-time players.
I would say that your projection is more than overly optimistic. Crosby could/would/should become one of the greatest players ever but having the longevity and skill to put up 12 100+point seasons is something i don't think even Crosby is capable of.
You realize that there is 12 100+ point seasons in that list. Guess how many players in the history of this game has ever had more?
Right, Gretzky had 14 in a very much higher scoring era.
Next is Lemieux with 10 and after that it is Stastny with 7 and after that bunch of 6-time players.
I would say that your projection is more than overly optimistic. Crosby could/would/should become one of the greatest players ever but having the longevity and skill to put up 12 100+point seasons is something i don't think even Crosby is capable of.
A healthy Crosby would already have 7 100 point seasons (even with some small injuries here and there). But here, turn last 4 100 point seasons into 80 (hardly very optimistic at all to think he could be putting up those kind of points at that age, I'd be shocked if he declined that badly) and he still finishes with 2000
Anything else on there you think is wild and should be adjusted?
Last edited by revolverjgw: 02-14-2013 at 07:32 AM.
Turn the last 4 100 point seasons into 80 (hardly very optimistic at all to think he could be putting up those kind of points at that age, I'd be shocked if he declined that badly) and he still finishes with 2000
Anything else on there you think is wild and should be adjusted?
I am not saying you are out to lunch with the idea that Crosby might have been able to pull out 2000+ points with healthy career. But it is extremely difficult feat to accomplish and looking at things in retrospective.
There has been players with close to the same offensive talent as Crosby has and they all fell short.
Hypothetically speaking and giving players unrealistic benefits make little to no sense. I could easily make a claim that Selanne could have hit 2000+ without injuries, coming to the NHL sooner and lockouts.
I am not saying you are out to lunch with the idea that Crosby might have been able to pull out 2000+ points with healthy career. But it is extremely difficult feat to accomplish and looking at things in retrospective.
There has been players with close to the same offensive talent as Crosby has and they all fell short.
Hypothetically speaking and giving players unrealistic benefits make little to no sense. I could easily make a claim that Selanne could have hit 2000+ without injuries, coming to the NHL sooner and lockouts.
I'm obviously being very optimistic, using Mark Recchi (a famously durable player) as a parallel. I don't expect Crosby to have that kind of durability or anything close to it, but the point of this little thought exercise was to show how Crosby COULD score 2000 point in a realistic scenario. There's nothing unrealistic in thinking he could have Mark Recchi's career arc, he was, after all, a player that actually existed. And there were others like him. Jagr is like him... and might have had a shot at 2000 if he stuck around for his KHL years. Would this be difficult for Crosby? Of course, very. Unlikely? Naturally.
Last edited by revolverjgw: 02-14-2013 at 07:55 AM.
I'm glad to see people can at least respect him and his skills. Liking him is a matter of opinion, but you can't deny his PPG and stats in general are pretty awesome.
To put this in perspective, Crosby's career assist per game average is the same as the career point per game averages of Jonathan Toews and Eric Staal, two of the top centers in the world right now.
Crosby is currently 5th in assists per game in history barely behind Forsberg with Orr, Lemieux and Gretzky ahead of him.
A crazy thing to think about is that he could go another 48 games with 0 assists and still be in 5th place.
Crosby will probably surpass Forsberg already this season. I think his assist totals will rise to a new level during next few seasons. His goal scoring may never come back to the level he was in few years ago though.
Can he surpass Thorntons 96 assists season at some point? Seems realistic.
Crosby will probably surpass Forsberg already this season. I think his assist totals will rise to a new level during next few seasons. His goal scoring may never come back to the level he was in few years ago though.
Can he surpass Thorntons 96 assists season at some point? Seems realistic.
Very unlikely.
Crosby is much more of a goal scorer than Thornton ever was. Hell, his last full season he netted 51 goals.
A healthy-full Crosby season is much more likely to go 50-80 or 45-85 than go 35-95.
Crosby also has very little to work with line-wise and his time with Malkin is basically limited to the PP.
