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All Encompassing Tanking/Rebuilding/Selling at Deadline Thread 2.0

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02-14-2013, 04:43 AM
  #926
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
That's gonna piss LG off, so I'll take this one: The chances of a top 5 busting are much much lower than a 15th, or a 20th. Go look at the draft records the last 30 years. It is all about increasing your odds of a great pick while you have the opportunity to do so.
Do we even have that opportunity anymore. We are 1/4 the way through the season and look like a playoff bubble team.

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02-14-2013, 05:14 AM
  #927
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Do we even have that opportunity anymore. We are 1/4 the way through the season and look like a playoff bubble team.

The Habs wont be anywhere near a top 5 draft pick. IMO they will be fighting for a playoff spot all season so their pick should be roughly in the middle of the pack.....

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02-14-2013, 05:32 AM
  #928
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
shows how much you know about the game, really...
I'm sorry, you're right, my labeling of Markov is not correct, it is a severe exaggeration.

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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Your not addressing the issue, if you can get 5-6 equally important players why do we HAVE to tank to get that one extra guy? Tanking is risky, that's why the only teams who do it have basically nothing to begin with. You've never explained why we should take that risk beyond it might help us in the future while ignoring the fact that it might hurt us too.
The way I see it, you need several quality players including at least 2 or 3 perennial all stars to be a legitimate contender. There are many ways to get those players, but the easiest way and the way with the highest probability of success is with high picks.

Each strategy comes with a risk of failure. If you draft high you could end up with Benoit Pouliot rather than Carey Price. If you go the UFA route you can end up with Wade Redden as easily as you can end up with Zdeno Chara. If you go the trade route you can end up with Scott Gomez as easily as you can end up with James Neal.

Further, in the case of the Habs, drafting is our strength. I trust Trevor Timmins. If he is deciding who we pick at 6th overall or wherever, then I think that is a high yield opportunity. For example he picked Galchenyuk last year at 3rd overall, which contrary to the liturgy of the hindsight brigade was not an obvious choice. In contrast, when it comes to the trade or UFA route, we depend on the brainpower of our GM and our scouts. These guys may be on par in competence with Timmins, but I doubt it.

My impression of the 2012 UFA season was that Bergevin really wanted Shane Doan, but he didn't want Alexander Semin, who is thus far a vastly superior player. But it's too early to tell, maybe Bergevin-Dudley's competence will be sufficiently high relative to Timmins' that we can justify the trade-UFA strategy over the draft strategy.

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Not sure I agree with that it depends on lot on the draft year. 2003 for example I would much rather the 15 picks, same goes for 2007. You have a better chance of getting a great player with a top 5 pick, so what? It doesn't address the fact that in order to get that top pick you have to dismantle the team or have really bad luck. If you dismantle the team you might not be able to put it back together again once you get that pick.
Well, obviously we need to go by the average of all the draft years I think, either that or we acknowledge that 2013 is likely a superior draft year.

A page or two back I listed who I think are the top 18 centers in the NHL. Maybe you have a different list, but I bet it's very similar. ECSWHCI then proceeded to go through that list, and pointed out to me that half those players are top-3 picks. I hadn't realized that. It seems like a high-yield strategy.

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You have to ignore what happened pre-cap because it was a completly different landscape.
Agreed.

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If you look post lockout we haven't been wasting our time, we've improved from bubble team that usually misses the playoffs to a team that makes the playoffs more often than not who has a good future ahead of it. That's not wasting our time.
I'm not sure how we've improved.

We were already a playoff team pre-cap, didn't we lose to the Lightning in the 2nd round just before the lockout?

In the post-lockout era we have been 7th, 10th, 1st, 8th, 8th, 6th, 15th -- I don't see an improvement trend. I'm pretty sure a linear regression would yield a negative trend, but I'm too lazy to compute it here.

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Every team needs luck, we lucked into a random top-5 pick. Boston got lucky when they ended up with Seguin & Hamilton instead of two mid 1sts. LA got lucky that Kopitar was still around at 11th.
Which is why you want to roll the dice more often, for example our 3 2nd rounders this year.

The expected amount of success for independent random variables is equal to the product of [[the probability of success of each variable ]] and [[ the number of variables ]]. With one 1st rounder we can expect to draft a Higgins. With three 1st rounders we can expect to draft a McDonagh, a Higgins, and a Fischer.

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I'm against rebuilding because where the team is at right now. By tanking we are risking our future. It's simply not worth it for a team in MTL's position.
It's hard to see a plausible path to contention, i.e. a "future", with the current talent crop.

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The team was completly rebuilt. It was a rebuild through free agency. Maybe you should check out a dictionary.
Agreed, it was a failed rebuild.

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Souray could've gotten more than Rivet, I think he was worth the equivalent of 2 1st round picks. 2 mid-late 1st =/= Bobby Ryan or similar player. We also tried to re-sign him, if we had signed him to a 6 year deal would it still have been short term thinking?
I'm fine with either resigning players or dealing with picks and young prospects. However, what I hate is losing players for nothing. We lost Sourray, Streit, Koivu, Kovalev, Komisarek, Tanguay, for nothing.

The only time I'm ok with it is if you are a legitimate contender, in which case the math is equivalent to renting a player.

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You have a crystal ball do you? It's unlikely we win the cup this year (1-2%). It's unlikely that Pittsgurgh wins the cup this year too (~15%).
The Habs I give a 50% chance of making the playoffs and then a 40% average chance for each playoff round: 1.3% stanley cup probability for the Habs. The Pens I give a 90% chance of making the playoffs and a 55% average chance for each playoff round, so 8.3% stanley cup probability for the Pens.

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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Do we even have that opportunity anymore. We are 1/4 the way through the season and look like a playoff bubble team.
Somebody else a few pages back pointed out that around March something the Habs will have played half their games at home and half on the road. That date was before the trade deadline I think, so good evaluation point.

Right now we've played 8 home games (10 points) and 4 road games (5 points), good enough for 15 points in 12 games. We'll see how things keep up.


Last edited by DAChampion: 02-14-2013 at 05:42 AM.
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Old
02-14-2013, 06:11 AM
  #929
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not that I'm a fan of moving either Pleks or Markov for just a 1st... but if you think about it, having 6 first round picks, plus 3 2nd round picks, in a draft that has 4-6 guys in the top ten that look to be slam dunk future elite players & has scouts buzzing for the quality of depth in the top half of the draft (much like 2003), would be a pretty robust way to build a contender pretty quickly.

with 9 top-60 picks, a smart GM could easily get into the top-10, probably twice (not too mention if any of those 6 ended up top-10), and still keep a few other top-60 picks.

MaxPac - Desharnais - xxx
xxx - Eller - xxx
Prust - Galch - Gally
Moen - White - xxx

Subban - Gorges
Emelin - Diaz
Weber - Tinordi/Kaberle

Price

That's what we'd have left, plus ~23M$ in cap space (and the luxury of having Galch/Gally/Tinordi + another large crop of top-end young talent, all on ELC for the next 3-5 years).

4/5 physical dman: pick up one of Smid/Regher/Murray to solidify the defense (2-3 years) ~3-4M$
top-line fwd: throw big money at one of Semin/Perry/Clarkson (4-6 years) - ~6-7M$
top-6/9 wingers: throw money at 2 of Gagne/Clowe/Bouchard/Cleary/Macarthur (2-4 years) ~10M$ for both

it would be pretty hard to find 4-5 players worth spending 23M$ on, trades are also a possibility (made much easier by the 9 top-60 picks)

MaxPac - Desharnais - Perry/Semin/Clarkson
- Eller + 2 new wingers
Prust - Galch - Gally
Moen - White - Dumont

Subban - Gorges
Smid/Regher/Murray - Diaz
Weber - Emelin

that's a roster that is just as much a playoff team as our current one, AND would have that massive influx of elite prospects being slowly injected into the lineup over the next 2-4 years.


jeez... i know you were being sarcastic, but really, if we could walk out of this season with 23M$ in cap space and 5 extra first round picks, it would be HARD for any GM to not manage to build a perennial contender in a very short period of time.
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Last edited by bsl: 02-14-2013 at 06:21 AM.
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Old
02-14-2013, 06:53 AM
  #930
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The way I see it, you need several quality players including at least 2 or 3 perennial all stars to be a legitimate contender. There are many ways to get those players, but the easiest way and the way with the highest probability of success is with high picks.

Each strategy comes with a risk of failure. If you draft high you could end up with Benoit Pouliot rather than Carey Price. If you go the UFA route you can end up with Wade Redden as easily as you can end up with Zdeno Chara. If you go the trade route you can end up with Scott Gomez as easily as you can end up with James Neal.
It's really debatable that a high picks are as risky as a UFA or trade. I'm sure many more draft picks fail to live up to the hype then UFAs go Gomez on you. And even when they do you, a lot of people would've predicted they will fail to live up to the contract the second they sign it, that's not the case for high picks.

If you are in the basement or near to it already then yes the easiest way to get those players is tanking. That's not the Habs though. If we want to get those picks then we will have to dismantle the current team. Which means after we get those picks we will have to rebuild the supporting cast and during that time we also risk stunting the development of the young players. Also since UFA comes up so quickly if you spend most of their RFA years in the basement they might decide to hit the UFA market rather then sticking with the rebuild.

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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
A page or two back I listed who I think are the top 18 centers in the NHL. Maybe you have a different list, but I bet it's very similar. ECSWHCI then proceeded to go through that list, and pointed out to me that half those players are top-3 picks. I hadn't realized that. It seems like a high-yield strategy.
No doubt top picks yield great players. The problem is in thinking it's easy to get back to where we are right now even after you get them. If it's so easy to build a playoff team without superstars like we have then why are teams like the Leafs, Columbus, NYI, etc... failing at it. Those teams would gladly trade some top picks for some consistent playoff apperances. Building a playoff team is much harder than people give credit for, and that's true whether you have top picks in your lineup or not.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I'm not sure how we've improved.
We have a much more balanced forward group, gone are the days of it being 1-2 good players trying to carry a bunch of scrubs/young hopefulls. We can now roll 3 offensive lines. Our D lacks depth, but the top 4 is at or near the best it's ever been. And our prospect pool (If you include Galchenyuk) is pretty strong too.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
In the post-lockout era we have been 7th, 10th, 1st, 8th, 8th, 6th, 15th -- I don't see an improvement trend. I'm pretty sure a linear regression would yield a negative trend, but I'm too lazy to compute it here.
If you take the two fluke years (1st & 15th) then it is trending up. But it even so it ignores the fact that it's very easy for a good team to implode and drop to the bottom, it's very hard for a bad team to do the opposite and finish on top.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Which is why you want to roll the dice more often, for example our 3 2nd rounders this year.

The expected amount of success for independent random variables is equal to the product of [[the probability of success of each variable ]] and [[ the number of variables ]]. With one 1st rounder we can expect to draft a Higgins. With three 1st rounders we can expect to draft a McDonagh, a Higgins, and a Fischer.
But your ignoring the fact that there is a cost associated with getting more dice rolls.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
It's hard to see a plausible path to contention, i.e. a "future", with the current talent crop.
You started a thread about a 1-year surgical tank, whereby adding one top-5 pick would turn us into a contender. That means you think we are one elite player away from becoming a contender. You can't see a prospect breaking out and exceeding expectations, you can't see us signing a great UFA, or finally ripping someone off in a trade. Hell all it would really take is for Price or Subban to be who we all want them to be.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I'm fine with either resigning players or dealing with picks and young prospects. However, what I hate is losing players for nothing. We lost Sourray, Streit, Koivu, Kovalev, Komisarek, Tanguay, for nothing.
I think a lot of the blame for that goes on the stupid don't re-sign players during the year rule. It was reasonable to assume we could've re-signed Souray. If we had been talking to him for a few months before the deadline we would've know what he was looking for and been able to make a much more informed decision.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The Habs I give a 50% chance of making the playoffs and then a 40% average chance for each playoff round: 1.3% stanley cup probability for the Habs. The Pens I give a 90% chance of making the playoffs and a 55% average chance for each playoff round, so 8.3% stanley cup probability for the Pens.
Seem like reasonable numbers. Which proves my point, you can't base an argument on us being unlikely to win right now, because no one is likely to win. It will always take a large degree of luck.

When people talk about stacking the deck, or taking one step back so that we can take two steps forward. That's only looking at what happens if it works, but since there's a very good chance of it not working, you will have just taken one step back.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Somebody else a few pages back pointed out that around March something the Habs will have played half their games at home and half on the road. That date was before the trade deadline I think, so good evaluation point.

Right now we've played 8 home games (10 points) and 4 road games (5 points), good enough for 15 points in 12 games. We'll see how things keep up.
I have absolutley no problems with MB sitting on his hands until then. Unless someone is desperate and is making an offer you can't refuse we shouldn't be buying or selling right now.

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Old
02-14-2013, 07:21 AM
  #931
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I think out future looks decent:

Pacioretty - Galchenyuk - Gallagher
XXXXX - Eller - Collberg
Hudon/Bozon - Leblanc - XXXXX
Geoffrion - White - Quailer

Gorges - Subban
Beaulieu - Emelin
Tinordi - Ellis

Price
XXXXX

Players in BOLD fall into the 7 player profile to win a Stanley Cup, I don't think we are too far from becoming a solid contender in the east IF AND WHEN all the prospects pan out like we want them to, I think we have decent prospects on defense, I think it's time to stockpile big talented centres, power forwards and grit/toughness up front and another good goalie that we can develop and that can be the future #1 in Montreal.

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02-14-2013, 07:30 AM
  #932
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
It's really debatable that a high picks are as risky as a UFA or trade. I'm sure many more draft picks fail to live up to the hype then UFAs go Gomez on you. And even when they do you, a lot of people would've predicted they will fail to live up to the contract the second they sign it, that's not the case for high picks.
It would take a lot of work, maybe 30 minutes or so, to go through this either way, so I'm going to put it off.

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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
If you are in the basement or near to it already then yes the easiest way to get those players is tanking. That's not the Habs though. If we want to get those picks then we will have to dismantle the current team. Which means after we get those picks we will have to rebuild the supporting cast and during that time we also risk stunting the development of the young players. Also since UFA comes up so quickly if you spend most of their RFA years in the basement they might decide to hit the UFA market rather then sticking with the rebuild.
I'm of the view players sign wherever there is the most money, first and foremost. With the exception of Marian Hossa, winning team doesn't matter that much.

Parise and Suter went to Minnesota, for example. Cammalleri, Gionta, Gill, Spacek, and Moen came to Montreal even though we were a mess. Drury, Gomez, Redden all went to New York. Savard and Chara went to the Boston bottom-feeder, etc. Money talks.

Other factors like travel schedule, winning culture, weather, matter, but they are perturbations. The number 1 priority is money, which is why we need to watch over our cap space like it's a prized commodity in and of itself. If we can offer 12 million a year to Evgeni Malkin in 2014, and some cup contender like St-Louis offers 8.5, then we have real good odds imo.

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No doubt top picks yield great players. The problem is in thinking it's easy to get back to where we are right now even after you get them. If it's so easy to build a playoff team without superstars like we have then why are teams like the Leafs, Columbus, NYI, etc... failing at it. Those teams would gladly trade some top picks for some consistent playoff apperances. Building a playoff team is much harder than people give credit for, and that's true whether you have top picks in your lineup or not.
Have we not been through this?

Leafs would be doing a lot better with Seguin and Hamilton in their lineups. Having a 2nd overall is pretty useless if you trade it away. They also traded away a 14th (Rask), and then traded away a 13th overall to acquire Vesa Toskala. That 13th overall became Lars Eller. Actually, the Sharks packaged it to get Couture. Could you imagine the Leafs with Seguin and Couture as their top 2 centers, Hamilton on D, and Rask in nets?

NYI have drafted great, but their owner is cheap. They play at the cap floor. Drafting well is a good start, but you need to surround the players. Honestly, when people bring up this cap floor team (actually less than the cap floor once counting Yashin, Dipietro, Thomas) as an argument against tanking, it comes off as a huge troll argument.

Columbus wasn't trying to tank, they were trying to make the playoffs. They traded Voracek and an 8th (Couturier) for Jeff Carter, signed Wisniewski and signed Prospal, how is that tanking? Now however things are different. Columbus is tanking. They have Ryan Murray, Tim Erixon as prospects. They have three 1st rounders this year. They have a new GM. The true test of tanking will be the 2016 Jackets, not the 2012 Jackets who were actually a test of the 8th place strategy.

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We have a much more balanced forward group, gone are the days of it being 1-2 good players trying to carry a bunch of scrubs/young hopefulls. We can now roll 3 offensive lines. Our D lacks depth, but the top 4 is at or near the best it's ever been. And our prospect pool (If you include Galchenyuk) is pretty strong too.
Our prospect pool was once ranked 2nd, this summer it was ranked 8th.

We used to have a very deep lineup. Koivu-Plekanec-Metropolit down the middle was not crap, and Koivu-Lang-Plekanec was even better. Remember the excitement when we had tow Kostitsyns, Higgins, Kovalev on our top-6? Remember the excitement of a Tanguay-Koivu-Latendresse second line?

We also have less high-end performance talent now. We don't have any forwards with gamebreaking ability like Kovalev had. Galchenyuk will have that one day, but he doesn't now. Even if he did, that would only support the tanking methodology.

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If you take the two fluke years (1st & 15th) then it is trending up.
False statistics. You can't just remove the points you don't like unless you have a very, very good reason to do so.

The 2008 team might not have been a 1st place team, but it was a good team. Similarly, the 2012 might not have been a 15th place team, but it was a bad team. Neither was a bubble team.

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But it even so it ignores the fact that it's very easy for a good team to implode and drop to the bottom, it's very hard for a bad team to do the opposite and finish on top.
I really doubt that this would hold out statistically.

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But your ignoring the fact that there is a cost associated with getting more dice rolls.
You mean trading away Cammalleri and Kostitsyn? Lateral moves in replacing Cammalleri with Bourque and Kostitsyn with Gallagher.


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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
You started a thread about a 1-year surgical tank, whereby adding one top-5 pick would turn us into a contender. That means you think we are one elite player away from becoming a contender.
That was but one of my arguments. I also stated that:
- clearing cap space would allow us to nail the UFA market.
- The additional top-60 picks could be helpful in a deep draft.
- We should let out prospects dominate in junior and in the ahl rather than rush them so as to make the playoffs. This would help their development.

Instead, we look to be entering the 2013 UFA market with a cap crunch, no additional 1st rounders, and Gallagher and Galchenyuk accelerated. At least Tinordi and Beaulieu are still in junior.

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You can't see a prospect breaking out and exceeding expectations, you can't see us signing a great UFA, or finally ripping someone off in a trade. Hell all it would really take is for Price or Subban to be who we all want them to be.
Because I greatly respect Timmins' judgment. Bergevin has not earned that respect, and neither has Dudley.

My suspicion of Bergevin, which may be paranoia from the Carboaching era, is that he overvalues "grit" and "character" over talent. For me, talent is what wins championship. Malkin was the Pittsburgh MVP in 2009, not Talbot. I worry about Bergevin. He preferred Shane Doan to Alexander Semin. He didn't want to lock up Subban long-term. I might be wrong, I hope I'm wrong, but I have a hard time seeing this guy rock the trade or UFA market. They also hired Sylvain Lefebvre to coach Hamilton.

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I think a lot of the blame for that goes on the stupid don't re-sign players during the year rule. It was reasonable to assume we could've re-signed Souray. If we had been talking to him for a few months before the deadline we would've know what he was looking for and been able to make a much more informed decision.
I also think he took a lot of heat for trading away Huet in 2008 (which was not a bad move imo) and he didn't want to tank during the Habs 100th season. He bought Tanguay, Laraque, and Lang at the start of the year, winning the cup was the goal. It takes a lot of mental acuity to be able to switch gears midseason, as was necessary in 2009, and maybe he lacked it.

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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Seem like reasonable numbers. Which proves my point, you can't base an argument on us being unlikely to win right now, because no one is likely to win. It will always take a large degree of luck.
There's a huge difference between 8% and 1.5%, about a factor of five. Basically, if the Habs tanked for eight years and became a Pittsburgh for only 2 years (beyond worst case scenario) they would be doing as well as being the bubble Habs for those 10 years.


Last edited by DAChampion: 02-14-2013 at 07:37 AM.
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02-14-2013, 12:27 PM
  #933
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I'm fine with either resigning players or dealing with picks and young prospects. However, what I hate is losing players for nothing. We lost Sourray, Streit, Koivu, Kovalev, Komisarek, Tanguay, for nothing.
O.K. one day you're calaiming that the Bruins trading Thornton for virtually nothing was an awesome move for the Bruins, the next you say that you hate losing players for nothing...

make up your mind.

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02-14-2013, 12:34 PM
  #934
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I want Montreal to be nothing but potential, that way I'll never be disappointed in the results.

"We lost again? Oh that's fine, we're so young, we have potential to be better!" I will say year in and year out.

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Old
02-14-2013, 12:43 PM
  #935
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O.K. one day you're claiming that the Bruins trading Thornton for virtually nothing was an awesome move for the Bruins, the next you say that you hate losing players for nothing...

make up your mind.
edit typo

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02-14-2013, 12:53 PM
  #936
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Your not addressing the issue, if you can get 5-6 equally important players why do we HAVE to tank to get that one extra guy? Tanking is risky, that's why the only teams who do it have basically nothing to begin with. You've never explained why we should take that risk beyond it might help us in the future while ignoring the fact that it might hurt us too.
I've explained it repeatedly.

There is no risk.

We aren't winning anything now with those vets anyway. Just like we weren't going to win anything five years ago with Koivu and we should've done it then... This is the part that you can't accept. Once you do, you'll see that what I'm saying makes sense.
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Not sure I agree with that it depends on lot on the draft year. 2003 for example I would much rather the 15 picks, same goes for 2007. You have a better chance of getting a great player with a top 5 pick, so what? It doesn't address the fact that in order to get that top pick you have to dismantle the team or have really bad luck. If you dismantle the team you might not be able to put it back together again once you get that pick.
There will always be exceptions to the rule. Absolutely you'd be better off with more 1sts in 2003 (or 1979 for that matter) but most years that's not the way it works.

This is probably going to be one of those years which is why we should REALLY be trying to deal our vets now.
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You have to ignore what happened pre-cap because it was a completly different landscape. If you look post lockout we haven't been wasting our time, we've improved from bubble team that usually misses the playoffs to a team that makes the playoffs more often than not who has a good future ahead of it. That's not wasting our time.
We did waste our time. And we wasted a LOT of assets too. There was no reason to let everyone go and then re-up with Gomez and co. It made absolutely no sense at all. Not only that but we exacerbated the problem by giving away McD. That set us back a fair bit as well.

If we'd rebuilt back then we'd be a hell of a lot better off now. Instead we did things the hard way and wasted three or four years where we could've been rebuilding. Subban, Max and Price were already in the system anyway dude. We could've just held onto McD and dealt vets. But we weren't smart enough to do this and let them walk for nothing.

And the worst part of it was that a good portion of posters here defended those moves. My favourite argument was... "If it weren't for us getting Gomez, Gionta and Cammy wouldn't have come, so it's a good move."
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I'm not referring to fan-attitude, I'm talking about the team culture (Management, Players, Coaches). The team definetly doesn't have a culture of apathy.

We are risking more than 8th, we risk becoming bad and not getting better. Why do you ignore this.
I was talking about team culture as well. We were in the mindset where 8th place was good enough. And the team still feels this way now. All we have to do is make 8th and it's all good...

We aren't risking anything but 8th place. Even if we lost Markov for nothing, it doesn't matter because we aren't going to win a cup with him.
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Every team needs luck, we lucked into a random top-5 pick. Boston got lucky when they ended up with Seguin & Hamilton instead of two mid 1sts. LA got lucky that Kopitar was still around at 11th.

I'm against rebuilding because where the team is at right now. By tanking we are risking our future. It's simply not worth it for a team in MTL's position.
Yes, every team needs luck. But you can't plan for luck, you can only take advantage of it when it comes knocking.

Boston created their own luck by dealing with a bad team. They knew what they were doing just like Polloch did when he used to make deals with bad teams desperate to make the playoffs.
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The team was completly rebuilt. It was a rebuild through free agency. Maybe you should check out a dictionary. Souray could've gotten more than Rivet, I think he was worth the equivalent of 2 1st round picks. 2 mid-late 1st =/= Bobby Ryan or similar player. We also tried to re-sign him, if we had signed him to a 6 year deal would it still have been short term thinking?
You and I have different definitions of what 'rebuilding' is. All we did was replace our mediocre core with more mediocre guys who were paid double the cap hit and we gave up McD in the process. That's not rebuilding.

Even just thinking about it now it pisses me off that we've wasted four years and given up McD. Totally stupid on our part.
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The difference last year is that as we were getting near the deadline we were clearly out of the picture. Most other years we are in 7th or 8th. He didn't suck at his job, he gambled on Markov and lost the bet. He tried to fix it without mortgaging our future. And when that didn't work he made the right call to start selling.
I don't give a **** about 8th place. If we're coming in this year and we have a shot at 8th, I'd rather mgmt start thinking long term. The whole playing it by ear season by season has gotten us nowhere.
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Except they bring more than just trade value.
Not enough to justify holding onto them if we got offered young talent. Young talent > Mentor when you are rebuilding.

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Who said anything about scrambling, have I ever said we should trade picks/prospects for vets to make a push for 8th? You build slowly taking advantage of opportunities when they present themselves. It's the opposite of scrambling.

You have a crystal ball do you? It's unlikely we win the cup this year (1-2%). It's unlikely that Pittsgurgh wins the cup this year too (~15%).
Pittsburgh has a shot. We don't.

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02-14-2013, 01:00 PM
  #937
Dirty Danglez
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Everytime I see this thread on the Canadiens board, the last guy to reply is Lafleurs guy.

That's all I wanted to say

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02-14-2013, 01:05 PM
  #938
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Originally Posted by Dirty Danglez View Post
Everytime I see this thread on the Canadiens board, the last guy to reply is Lafleurs guy.

That's all I wanted to say
Do you want me to reply to this?

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02-14-2013, 01:09 PM
  #939
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Originally Posted by No Team Needed View Post
I want Montreal to be nothing but potential, that way I'll never be disappointed in the results.

"We lost again? Oh that's fine, we're so young, we have potential to be better!" I will say year in and year out.
When someone questions you just say "this team can't be judged for atleast 5 years!"

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02-14-2013, 01:13 PM
  #940
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When someone questions you just say "this team can't be judged for atleast 5 years!"
Every player we draft who plays top six/top four anywhere means they can play top six/top four in the NHL eventually.

No players over the age of 31 because anyone aged 25 or older is a washed up veteran we should trade for picks.

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02-14-2013, 01:22 PM
  #941
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Well looks like tanking is out the window now. 7 wins already this year.

I guess we'll have to improve our team through free agency. Because that is a winning strategy!

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02-14-2013, 01:25 PM
  #942
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Originally Posted by WestIslander View Post
I think out future looks decent:

Pacioretty - Galchenyuk - Gallagher
XXXXX - Eller - Collberg
Hudon/Bozon - Leblanc - XXXXX
Geoffrion - White - Quailer

Gorges - Subban
Beaulieu - Emelin
Tinordi - Ellis

Price
XXXXX

Players in BOLD fall into the 7 player profile to win a Stanley Cup, I don't think we are too far from becoming a solid contender in the east IF AND WHEN all the prospects pan out like we want them to, I think we have decent prospects on defense, I think it's time to stockpile big talented centres, power forwards and grit/toughness up front and another good goalie that we can develop and that can be the future #1 in Montreal.
Geoffrion ? Quailer ?...OMG... Dumont and Nattinen have way more chances than these two.... And you forget Kristo.

I would say only 60-70% of these players will someday be on the same Habs edition. Rest would be dealt or in the AHL still.

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02-14-2013, 02:16 PM
  #943
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
considering you're the one bring insightful comments such as "enjoy 8th", I'd refrain from commenting on other people's contribution if I were you.

Especially since you just like to ignore legitimate questions and comments.
There's nothing legitimate about your arguments If we continue along the path we're on, constantly being in the 8-10th window is the reality. Who are you watching?

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02-14-2013, 02:24 PM
  #944
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There's nothing legitimate about your arguments If we continue along the path we're on, constantly being in the 8-10th window is the reality. Who are you watching?
for all we know, MB cold very well be the guy who gets it when it comes to developping players, or at the very least not giving them away for free.

I know it's appealing to lose now and the next three years in an attempt to maybe get a cup in the next 20 years or so... but it aint as easy as getting top picks, have them play and voila.

and besides, the path we're on is also the path the Bruins are on - always try to make the P.O. at the very least. Difference being, they didng give away Kessel for free (like we did with Sergei, Lapierre, Latendresse, etc).

guess that's a bad example to follow, right ?

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02-14-2013, 04:56 PM
  #945
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I've been thinking about it since draft day. I'm not a tanker but that's what I would have done in the off season if I were Bergevin :

Trade Plekanec for Anaheim's pick and Gorges for Washington's pick (there were trade discussions about it from both teams on the trade board at the time and fans for ANH and WSH agreed it would make a good trade for them too), draft Galchenyuk, and Forsberg and Grigorenko who sliped; dump a couple of bodies for 2nd rounders or late 1st.

Forsberg-Galchenyuk-Gallagher
Pacioretty-Grigorenko-Bourque
Armstrong-Eller-Prust
Moen-Dumont-White

Markov-Emelin
Subban-Tinordi
Diaz-Bouillon
Beaulieu

Price


It would be a very green lineup, we would miss the playoffs, there is the chance Tinordi and Beaulieu would be rushed, but at the same time all those minutes might give them valuable experience and help them grow, and it would be an exciting rebuild, a team that would become competitive after 1-2 years. I'm not sure if it's a good idea to post it, but I thought I'd rather get flamed than not get your opinions.


Last edited by FF de Mars: 02-14-2013 at 05:13 PM.
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02-14-2013, 05:24 PM
  #946
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FF de Mars View Post
I've been thinking about it since draft day. I'm not a tanker but that's what I would have done in the off season if I were Bergevin :

Trade Plekanec for Anaheim's pick and Gorges for Washington's pick (there were trade discussions about it from both teams on the trade board at the time and fans for ANH and WSH agreed it would make a good trade for them too), draft Galchenyuk, and Forsberg and Grigorenko who sliped; dump a couple of bodies for 2nd rounders or late 1st.

Forsberg-Galchenyuk-Gallagher
Pacioretty-Grigorenko-Bourque
Armstrong-Eller-Prust
Moen-Dumont-White

Markov-Emelin
Subban-Tinordi
Diaz-Bouillon
Beaulieu

Price


It would be a very green lineup, we would miss the playoffs, there is the chance Tinordi and Beaulieu would be rushed, but at the same time all those minutes might give them valuable experience and help them grow, and it would be an exciting rebuild, a team that would become competitive after 1-2 years. I'm not sure if it's a good idea to post it, but I thought I'd rather get flamed than not get your opinions.
were the rumors for 2012 or 2013 drat picks?

as far as i concerned, i wont miss plekanec a lot and i dont think gorges is a game changer and im sure most GMs also think that.

whats the worst that can happen with this kind of overhaul? i dont even mind 2nd or 3rd rounders for some of these players (kaberle,borque etc) if the right guy is drafting there are stars in the late rounds every year.

id rather see a team that is overmatched in the next few years because of inexperience rather than being overmatched for then next 20 seasons because of this need to win a little now rather than a lot later.

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02-14-2013, 05:24 PM
  #947
Dirty Danglez
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Do you want me to reply to this?
I did. but I'd prefer if you multi quote this one

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02-14-2013, 05:34 PM
  #948
FF de Mars
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider917 View Post
were the rumors for 2012 or 2013 drat picks?

as far as i concerned, i wont miss plekanec a lot and i dont think gorges is a game changer and im sure most GMs also think that.

whats the worst that can happen with this kind of overhaul? i dont even mind 2nd or 3rd rounders for some of these players (kaberle,borque etc) if the right guy is drafting there are stars in the late rounds every year.

id rather see a team that is overmatched in the next few years because of inexperience rather than being overmatched for then next 20 seasons because of this need to win a little now rather than a lot later.
The discussions with the fans on the trade board were about 2012 picks. I still can't believe Grigorenko and Forsberg sliped that far !

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02-14-2013, 11:53 PM
  #949
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Originally Posted by TheGoalJudge View Post
Well looks like tanking is out the window now. 7 wins already this year.
East is a disaster. Ottawa is now out of it and whatever chance TO had is fading with Reimer's injury.

If we don't make the playoffs this season, there's absolutely no excuse. Half the teams are absolute crap or injured beyond repair.

Next week should be interesting, we start playing some pretty decent teams. I'll be interested to see how we do.
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Originally Posted by TheGoalJudge View Post
I guess we'll have to improve our team through free agency. Because that is a winning strategy!
That's something we're going to have to find out on... have we rebuilt enough yet?
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Originally Posted by Dirty Danglez View Post
I did. but I'd prefer if you multi quote this one
Your wish is my command.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FF de Mars View Post
The discussions with the fans on the trade board were about 2012 picks. I still can't believe Grigorenko and Forsberg sliped that far !
I really wish we had gone after Washington's extra pick...

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02-15-2013, 12:38 AM
  #950
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Knowing the Habs luck, injuries are going to hit just when there's no more window for tanking season.

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