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Jets - Free Agents, Trades, Rumors, Speculation - 2012-13 (Part XI)

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02-14-2013, 07:30 PM
  #326
Bob E
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
What would we give up for oreilly? His first two seasons are similar to burmistrovs.
Their numbers might be similar to start their careers, but i don't think you can compare the two as players, right now. ROR has put up 'near Wheeler' points in his 3rd year, Burmi hasn't developed his offensive game, yet. Both are strong defensive players and PK demons, but Burmi seems to be lagging behind offensively.

Now, you can continue to hope that Burmi does develop his offensive game, or you can grab a guy that is where you want Burmi to be in a year or two. I, for one, am not convinced Burmi will be an offensive player like ROR.

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02-14-2013, 07:33 PM
  #327
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Trade Scheifele(+Postma) than we can have ROR and Burmi... and ROR can tell Burmi what he needs to do to be super on both ends


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02-14-2013, 08:02 PM
  #328
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I'd really only feel comfortable packaging Little for O'Reilly.

I like Little a lot, but I think O'Reilly is an upgrade and it makes the most sense to us based on our cap situation. With the sinking cap ceiling and the reports that O'Reilly is seeking near 5mil I think we would have to move one of our core players (Ladd, Wheeler, Kane, Enstrom, Byfuglien, Bogosian) to stay under the cap next year and I think Little is the easiest "big money" guy to move.

The hard part is deciding the plus. I think Little+Postma is too much to give up for O'Reilly. I'd do Little+Kosmachuk, but I wouldn't do Little+Lowry.

I think we should hold on to guys like Burmistrov and Scheifele as they may be able to provide larger production than their salaries would indicate. This is under the assumption that we give Burmistrov a smaller 2 year bridge contract this offseason. I think this is an important thing to pay attention to during the next few years. As I believe it will be critical for teams to have players on entry level and bridge contracts performing well to have a successful team.

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02-14-2013, 08:17 PM
  #329
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I would personally do Little+ for ROR. And I don't have a problem paying him 5 mil. If he plays the way he did last year and adds just a bit (eventho his upside is way higher then last year's performance) he will be worth this money easily. A 2-nd line center, that plays PP, PK decent on face-offs, physical enough, excellent defensively with 50-60 points a year. If somebody thinks we can find somebody cheaper I'm not sure he is watching modern hockey. For how much do you think we gonna resign Little?

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02-14-2013, 08:24 PM
  #330
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I'm not 100% whether I'd rather trade Burmistrov, Scheifele, or Little...and Postma for ROR. But I'm thinking hard about all three. That's assuming Colorado can't get more.

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02-14-2013, 08:28 PM
  #331
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That's also assuming we'll pay what Oreilly is holding out for. Apparently he's asking for a lot.

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02-14-2013, 08:28 PM
  #332
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Am I the only one who is more confident in Little then Wheeler? I feel like Wheeler is very hit or miss and Little is a little more consistent and is solid defensively, something Wheeler is not.

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02-14-2013, 08:32 PM
  #333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuelled by Passion View Post
I would personally do Little+ for ROR. And I don't have a problem paying him 5 mil. If he plays the way he did last year and adds just a bit (eventho his upside is way higher then last year's performance) he will be worth this money easily. A 2-nd line center, that plays PP, PK decent on face-offs, physical enough, excellent defensively with 50-60 points a year. If somebody thinks we can find somebody cheaper I'm not sure he is watching modern hockey. For how much do you think we gonna resign Little?
Little + Postma I'm considering the most. We might need to add a pick still though. If ROR has upside even further than he is now, and I don't know either way if he does, I'd make the deal. Sounds like a heck of a player.

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02-14-2013, 08:34 PM
  #334
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Little + Postma I'm considering the most. We might need to add a pick still though. If ROR has upside even further than he is now, and I don't know either way if he does, I'd make the deal. Sounds like a heck of a player.
If only he were playing now instead of holding a contract dispute.

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02-14-2013, 09:32 PM
  #335
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Am I the only one who is more confident in Little then Wheeler? I feel like Wheeler is very hit or miss and Little is a little more consistent and is solid defensively, something Wheeler is not.
I think I'm with you on this one. I hate saying it though, because he's so fun to watch when he's playing well. From what I've seen this year, Little is also more versatile after playing that stint on RW.

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02-14-2013, 09:38 PM
  #336
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It seems like Wheeler needs a bit of open ice to gain some speed, and that's where he shines. With this new system it is smothering him and Kane as well. Noel is asking them to come back all the way into the zone, and play a neutral zone trap where they're by the boards at the red line. Both combined result in less room and ice for them to gain speed and break through the D.

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02-14-2013, 09:43 PM
  #337
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I actually think Wheeler will be just fine. If anything, he's trying too hard and forcing it. He's gotta "let the game come to him".

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02-14-2013, 09:48 PM
  #338
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Am I the only one who is more confident in Little then Wheeler? I feel like Wheeler is very hit or miss and Little is a little more consistent and is solid defensively, something Wheeler is not.
Agree, and a good observation, Duke. Last year for me it was Wheeler, this year Little has been one of our best forwards pretty consistently.

I hope Wheeler can find where he had his game last season. He's getting some points but he's not the force or bull on skates he was a year ago. Just doesn't appear to have that drive and determination he displayed last season.

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02-14-2013, 09:50 PM
  #339
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Their numbers might be similar to start their careers, but i don't think you can compare the two as players, right now.
I agree you cannot. Burmistrov may never put up the same #'s as ROR did in his third year. It was just an interesting fact.

I wonder if we could get ROR for Burmi + Postma. I think that may upset a few people here.

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02-14-2013, 10:21 PM
  #340
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Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
Am I the only one who is more confident in Little then Wheeler? I feel like Wheeler is very hit or miss and Little is a little more consistent and is solid defensively, something Wheeler is not.
They are very different players.

Little's versatility is awesome and I personally love the idea of 2 position players.

As for who is better, Wheeler is a better passer and he is better off the rush, but I see Little as a better shooter and I actually see him as a more physical player. He certainly seems better along the boards to me.

Also worth noting, Little is younger and he will be cheaper next year.

How the Jets finish will determine a lot about this off season. If they continue to suck anybody could be fair game and Wheeler, who will be due a big deal and he will be old relative to the new core (Kane, Burmistrov, Scheifele, Bogo, Trouba) ...anything can happen.

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02-14-2013, 10:25 PM
  #341
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
I agree you cannot. Burmistrov may never put up the same #'s as ROR did in his third year. It was just an interesting fact.

I wonder if we could get ROR for Burmi + Postma. I think that may upset a few people here.
Would do that deal in a second but not sure how interested Colorado would be they already have several prospects like Postma. I really think if the Jets wanted to get ROR Trouba would be going the other way.

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02-14-2013, 10:39 PM
  #342
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I actually think Wheeler will be just fine. If anything, he's trying too hard and forcing it. He's gotta "let the game come to him".
He is scoring at the fastest rate of his career 5v5...
2012-13: 2.83 pts/60
2008-09: 2.43 pts/60
2010-11: 2.20 pts/60
2011-12: 2.05 pts/60
2009-10: 1.70 pts/60

But, he does have his worst possession numbers of his career...
2011-12: 9.37
2009-10: 8.80
2010-11: 5.30
2008-09: 4.73
2012-13: -3.90

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02-14-2013, 11:00 PM
  #343
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Would do that deal in a second but not sure how interested Colorado would be they already have several prospects like Postma. I really think if the Jets wanted to get ROR Trouba would be going the other way.
Avs are in a tough spot. They have a player they can't sign. They can ask for Trouba, but won't get him. Adding Trouba to this deal wipes out the benefit of ROR, imo, as you lose a 'bluechip' prospect who could be a difference maker.

If they want a roster player and prospect, then for me, it's Burmi and ?? Postma might get it done, though they may like Redmond better.

Maybe two roster players - Burmi and Clitsome - would work.


I didn't have Little in the original deal, as i too like his versatility of playing C and RW. The Jets lose Antro's cap hit next year, so i'd re-direct that $4 mill to ROR in a heartbeat.

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02-14-2013, 11:05 PM
  #344
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Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
Am I the only one who is more confident in Little then Wheeler? I feel like Wheeler is very hit or miss and Little is a little more consistent and is solid defensively, something Wheeler is not.
I think Wheeler has more upside, but hasn't shown it in the past 7 or 8 games. I think when Wheeler is on, he has more value than Little both offensively (maybe not as a goal scorer) and defensively.

But i like Little's PK and PP ability. And i like Wheeler's size and speed. I thought he was going okay with Kane early, but then that line just did not defend at all. Would ROR help with that?

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02-15-2013, 01:03 AM
  #345
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I fully expect little to be packaged off for a bigger version of well...Little.

That being said, I think he's awesome because he has that versatility to play either C or RW. He'll also probably collect around 3.5 next season. So pretty cheap for what he brings to the table.

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02-15-2013, 01:04 AM
  #346
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I think I'm with you on this one. I hate saying it though, because he's so fun to watch when he's playing well. From what I've seen this year, Little is also more versatile after playing that stint on RW.
Yeah Little has been the better more consistent player this year IMO.

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Originally Posted by Stej View Post
I actually think Wheeler will be just fine. If anything, he's trying too hard and forcing it. He's gotta "let the game come to him".
I agree but I just don't like his game overall. He seems way to mistake prone. Little seems to make less mistakes regardless. Wheeler needs to minimize his mistakes I think.

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Originally Posted by Zachy Goj View Post
Agree, and a good observation, Duke. Last year for me it was Wheeler, this year Little has been one of our best forwards pretty consistently.

I hope Wheeler can find where he had his game last season. He's getting some points but he's not the force or bull on skates he was a year ago. Just doesn't appear to have that drive and determination he displayed last season.
Even last year I felt like Wheeler was too inconsistent from shift to shift whereas Little's play seen much more consistent even though his numbers might not be as high.

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Originally Posted by truck View Post
They are very different players.

Little's versatility is awesome and I personally love the idea of 2 position players.

As for who is better, Wheeler is a better passer and he is better off the rush, but I see Little as a better shooter and I actually see him as a more physical player. He certainly seems better along the boards to me.

Also worth noting, Little is younger and he will be cheaper next year.

How the Jets finish will determine a lot about this off season. If they continue to suck anybody could be fair game and Wheeler, who will be due a big deal and he will be old relative to the new core (Kane, Burmistrov, Scheifele, Bogo, Trouba) ...anything can happen.
They are. Little seems to be fitting in well. Could be a valuable 2nd liner. And I agree as far as board battles go.

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I think Wheeler has more upside, but hasn't shown it in the past 7 or 8 games. I think when Wheeler is on, he has more value than Little both offensively (maybe not as a goal scorer) and defensively.

But i like Little's PK and PP ability. And i like Wheeler's size and speed. I thought he was going okay with Kane early, but then that line just did not defend at all. Would ROR help with that?
I don't agree with thinking Wheeler is better defensively. If that were true you would think he'd play on the pk more.

Now, I'm really starting to lose patience with Wheeler in regards to his size. He doesn't have to hit people but he has to use his size to his advantage down low and along the boards. Even Antropov does that.

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02-15-2013, 06:24 AM
  #347
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No need to trade for any center, we are drafting McKinnon already.

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02-15-2013, 06:36 AM
  #348
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No need to trade for any center, we are drafting McKinnon already.
If things start going south this year I'm with you. By far the biggest need for this team is a true #1 franchise center.

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02-15-2013, 06:57 AM
  #349
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If things start going south this year I'm with you. By far the biggest need for this team is a true #1 franchise center.
I would love the Jets to make the playoff this year but I think if we did we will just squish in. In the long term growth of the Jets, McKinnon or Jones is what the doctor will suggest...

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02-15-2013, 09:21 AM
  #350
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Their numbers might be similar to start their careers, but i don't think you can compare the two as players, right now. ROR has put up 'near Wheeler' points in his 3rd year, Burmi hasn't developed his offensive game, yet. Both are strong defensive players and PK demons, but Burmi seems to be lagging behind offensively.

Now, you can continue to hope that Burmi does develop his offensive game, or you can grab a guy that is where you want Burmi to be in a year or two. I, for one, am not convinced Burmi will be an offensive player like ROR.
Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
I agree you cannot. Burmistrov may never put up the same #'s as ROR did in his third year. It was just an interesting fact.

I wonder if we could get ROR for Burmi + Postma. I think that may upset a few people here.
Maybe Burmistrov doesn't get his offense going, there is no way to know the future for sure one way or the other. But Burmistrov's and ROR's progression have been very similar, and I don't see how ROR is that much ahead of Burmistrov.

(Rookie seasons)
Even Strength
Burmi (2010 - 2011) (74gp) - 6 - 13 - 19
ROR (2009 - 2010) (81gp) - 6 - 18 - 24

PP
Burmi (2010 - 2011) 0 - 0 - 0 (:18) a game
ROR (2009 - 2010) 0 - 0 - 0 (:35) a game


Second Seasons
Even Strength
Burmi (2011 - 2012) (76gp) - 11 - 13 - 24
ROR (2010 - 2011) (74gp) - 10 - 10 - 20

PP
Burmi (2011 - 2012) 1 - 2 - 3 (1:13) a game
ROR (2010 - 2011) 2 - 2 - 4 (:37) a game


Third Seasons
Even Strength
Burmi (2012 - 2013) (12gp) - 1 - 1 - 2
ROR (2011 - 2012) (81gp) - 14 - 26 - 40

PP
Burmi (2012 - 2013) 0 - 0 - 0 (:29) a game
ROR (2011 - 2012) 4 - 11 - 15 (2:21) a game


If Burmistrov got 23 even strength points, and 9 PP points in this shortened season he would match ROR's third year pace from last year. What are the odds that he gets 9 PP points in 35 more games if the team gives him almost 2 full minutes more per game on the PP?

He might not get the 23 points though, but how many games has he played on the top lines with offensive line-mates?

http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...gametype=ALL#A

According to this he's been with Poni and Wellwood most of the time.

In ROR's big season last year he spent most of his time with Landeskog and Hejduk, followed by Landeskog and Downie.

http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...gametype=ALL#A


I agree with what you are saying JetKarma in that Burmistrov still has to produce those 3rd year numbers this year. But to be fair in a comparison to ROR, he needs the PP time, and he needs the linemates and opportunity that ROR had last year.

I can see the benefit of possibly dealing Burmi for ROR in that you might be getting the more finished product. But I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison unless Burmi gets the same opportunity (and linemates), that ROR got.

It would be trading very similar players IMO, and adding a premium for possibly one year of development. For myself, I wouldn't want to add much of a premium, as in my opinion, we haven't given Burmistrov the same opportunity that ROR had. We don't know for sure that he couldn't produce those numbers until we do.

Again, not saying it's bad, just that I don't think it's fair to compare these two straight up unless we acknowledge the ice time and opportunities that they each have had.

Apologies for the length of the post.

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