HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > National Hockey League Talk
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
National Hockey League Talk Discuss NHL players, teams, games, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Is Eberle's Shooting Percentage Unsustainable?

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-10-2013, 09:39 PM
  #276
Sky04
Registered User
 
Sky04's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 7,685
vCash: 500
He was PPG through the first 6 games, as soon as he goes cold, some guy with an inferiority complex decides to bring this up? Funny.

Sky04 is online now  
Old
02-10-2013, 09:42 PM
  #277
SchultzSquared
Registered User
 
SchultzSquared's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,904
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
What most people (including me) are saying is that he will not shoot at 18.5% for the entirety of his career. That number is very unsustainable, and it is a very rare player that can keep it.

He'll need to keep it at that level for a couple of seasons before I eat crow and admit that he can indeed be mentioned in the same breath as Charlie Simmer or Steven Stamkos.
Do people here realize SH% means jack... I don't get it... Gretzky must have been garbage for being at 17.6% for his career... some guys named Goulet and Nieuwendyk sit at 17.4%.

However to give you some perspective... Tanguay, Brunette and Holmstrom and Vanek all have 3 or more seasons of 18.5% or better since the lockout... are we really not willing to say Eberle could finish his career as good as any as those guys... that's not even Charlie Simmer territory...

SchultzSquared is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 09:43 PM
  #278
Freudian
Deja vu again?
 
Freudian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Country: Sweden
Posts: 31,359
vCash: 271
I would suggest that the 14.7% he has over his 159 game NHL career is more likely to reflect his 'true' shooting percentage than any smaller sample from those 159 games.

Freudian is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 09:48 PM
  #279
Finlandia WOAT
Do U Like Quebec?
 
Finlandia WOAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Raleigh NC
Country: United States
Posts: 9,529
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
Do people here realize SH% means jack... I don't get it... Gretzky must have been garbage for being at 17.6% for his career... some guys named Goulet and Nieuwendyk sit at 17.4%.
I, myself, am inclined to discuss Eberle's shooting percentage, not Eberle the player himself.

Saying Eberle's shooting percentage is unsustainable isn't a knock on Eberle, unless you think that saying that Eberle is like 95% of the League is an insult.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
However to give you some perspective... Tanguay, Brunette and Holmstrom and Vanek all have 3 or more seasons of 18.5% or better since the lockout... are we really not willing to say Eberle could finish his career as good as any as those guys... that's not even Charlie Simmer territory...
Some perspective:

Brunette and Holmstrom made a career out of crashing/camping the net and banging in rebounds.

Tanguay was a player who was looking to pass the puck, and would hence only shoot when he had a great scoring opportunity.

Eberle is not considered either of these types of players. He is like most other players in the League, and tries to maximize the amount of shots he can get on goal. Hence why his shooting % is unsustainable.

Finlandia WOAT is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 09:48 PM
  #280
Finlandia WOAT
Do U Like Quebec?
 
Finlandia WOAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Raleigh NC
Country: United States
Posts: 9,529
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
I would suggest that the 14.7% he has over his 159 game NHL career is more likely to reflect his 'true' shooting percentage than any smaller sample from those 159 games.
Agree.

Finlandia WOAT is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 09:55 PM
  #281
smackdaddy
Hall-RNH-Eberle
 
smackdaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: B.C.
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,961
vCash: 500
Ah damn it. Time to trade him.

smackdaddy is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 10:08 PM
  #282
TheJuxtaposer
#Shorks
 
TheJuxtaposer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: San Diego, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 26,928
vCash: 1379
Quote:
Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
Do people here realize SH% means jack
This is all you need to know about the pro-Eberle party.

TheJuxtaposer is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 10:17 PM
  #283
SchultzSquared
Registered User
 
SchultzSquared's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,904
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
This is all you need to know about the pro-Eberle party.
I'm not so much pro-Eberle as I am pro-U22 players who score 30 goals... I don't get why someone would want or have to discount a player like that for fun but I guess people must get something out of it... if you don't want to celebrate the game's best playing in the game's best league you should watch AHL or ECHL or something

SchultzSquared is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 10:29 PM
  #284
Hammer Time
Registered User
 
Hammer Time's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,734
vCash: 500
Eberle's shooting percentage right now is unsustainably low. Once regression happens he will start scoring more.

Am I doing this right?

Hammer Time is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 11:02 PM
  #285
SephF
Visually Better
 
SephF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,424
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stop Winnin View Post
Speaking of statistics, which is more likely Eberle sustaining his ridiculous shooting % from last year or this being the norm?
I'd say somewhere in the middle. 15% isn't out of the question.

The scary thing is his shooting % would be even lower if he didn't miss so many shots this year. I've see him put the puck wide or over the next a dozen times at least.

SephF is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 11:07 PM
  #286
SephF
Visually Better
 
SephF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,424
vCash: 500
This is kind of amusing :

After the first 12 games last year(his 36 goal season) he had 3 goals and a shooting % of 10.3

This year after 12 games he had 3 goals and a shooting % of 8.3

So his shooting percent has fallen 2% if you compare starts.

Not saying he's going to go on a tear like last year but maybe he's just a slow starer.

edit : had my math wrong


Last edited by SephF: 02-10-2013 at 11:34 PM.
SephF is offline  
Old
02-10-2013, 11:56 PM
  #287
mudcrutch79
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: The Big Smoke
Posts: 3,903
vCash: 500
Two percentage points is not 2%. His S% is off 20% on his worst stretch last year.

mudcrutch79 is offline  
Old
02-11-2013, 12:06 AM
  #288
LPH
[hello] :)
 
LPH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Granduland
Country: United States
Posts: 44,385
vCash: 50
He'll be a 12-14% kind of guy imo, he just has a very good shot selection. Small sample size is not indicitive of his skill

LPH is offline  
Old
02-11-2013, 12:07 AM
  #289
joe89
#5
 
joe89's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Country: Sweden
Posts: 17,508
vCash: 500
S% is bull, since it doesn't take into account shooting quality. Sure it can be nice to see if a pace _looks_ sustainable or not, but as far as I'm cornerned hockey is played on the ice not on an excel spreadsheet.

joe89 is offline  
Old
02-11-2013, 12:14 AM
  #290
syz
(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
 
syz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,210
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
I, myself, am inclined to discuss Eberle's shooting percentage, not Eberle the player himself.

Saying Eberle's shooting percentage is unsustainable isn't a knock on Eberle, unless you think that saying that Eberle is like 95% of the League is an insult.



Some perspective:

Brunette and Holmstrom made a career out of crashing/camping the net and banging in rebounds.

Tanguay was a player who was looking to pass the puck, and would hence only shoot when he had a great scoring opportunity.

Eberle is not considered either of these types of players. He is like most other players in the League, and tries to maximize the amount of shots he can get on goal. Hence why his shooting % is unsustainable.
Not really the case until lately. He's said himself that he wasn't interested in wasting shots. If he can't score he'll do something else with it.

By the looks of things recently though, it seems as if the coaching staff has convinced him to just start throwing it at the net for some reason. He has started just tossing pucks at weird angles that he never used to before, despite saying how much he dislikes doing it. The result has been a lack of creativity and a lack of production the last half dozen games.

syz is offline  
Old
02-11-2013, 12:25 AM
  #291
SephF
Visually Better
 
SephF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,424
vCash: 500
If he would've just buried this damn shot he would have better numbers then 12 games in last year



Unbelievable

SephF is offline  
Old
02-11-2013, 12:59 AM
  #292
deckercky
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 5,764
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SephF View Post
I'd say somewhere in the middle. 15% isn't out of the question.

The scary thing is his shooting % would be even lower if he didn't miss so many shots this year. I've see him put the puck wide or over the next a dozen times at least.
Players who pick corners miss a lot of shots - that's kind of the nature of the beast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joe89 View Post
S% is bull, since it doesn't take into account shooting quality.
Errr.....yes it does. You don't look at a generic shot and apply the percentage for how likely it is to score, but if a player has the hockey sense to get open for those wide open shots, and waits for high percentage shots, they usually won't have that change too much over time.

Comparing player to player for shooting percentage isn't terribly useful, but it's a useful metric to see when a player has been lucky or unlucky.

Like anything, small sample size for a young player like Eberle limits the predictive ability of using it at this point though.

deckercky is offline  
Old
02-11-2013, 01:17 AM
  #293
5RingsAndABeer
John MacKinnon Fan
 
5RingsAndABeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 11,511
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
I would suggest that the 14.7% he has over his 159 game NHL career is more likely to reflect his 'true' shooting percentage than any smaller sample from those 159 games.
Agreed. I don't know why people are taking a statistic with a ton of variance and using a tiny sample size to draw conclusions.

5RingsAndABeer is offline  
Old
02-13-2013, 11:23 AM
  #294
Senor Catface
Registered User
 
Senor Catface's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Country: Nepal
Posts: 6,222
vCash: 1937
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
This is all you need to know about the pro-Eberle party.
And that's why you should be dismissed and thrown into the pile of white noise that is this site at times.

What a silly notion. Pro-Eberle? Is there a anti-Eberle? Just silly. What about the crowd that thinks taking a 7 game sample where he's been snakebit is an opportunistic and juvenille approach at being right in an internet debate?

Where were you the first 5 or 6 games where his shooting percentage was higher? Nowhere, that's where.

If everything was so simple as "pro" and "anti" hey?

Senor Catface is offline  
Old
02-13-2013, 11:36 AM
  #295
VeddarRants
HEART AND SOUL
 
VeddarRants's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 12,513
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by franfrey* View Post
Now shooting at a 28% pace in the AHL this year... Does everyone still think he can't keep up a 17-19% pace in the NHL?
Yes, it's unsustainable. Still a very good young player.

VeddarRants is offline  
Old
02-15-2013, 01:31 AM
  #296
eklunds source
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Ed Snider's basement
Posts: 7,911
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
Do people here realize SH% means jack... I don't get it... Gretzky must have been garbage for being at 17.6% for his career... some guys named Goulet and Nieuwendyk sit at 17.4%.
Those players were playing a different game, so to speak. In 1987, Grant Fuhr won the Vezina trophy with a 0.881sv%. Last year, 65 goalies played in 10 or more games and every single one of them had a 0.881sv% or better. Between natural talent (more people playing hockey means more goalies, more goalies means a higher likelihood of finding great goalies), enlarged equipment, and training, goalies are far superior to what they were then.

Quote:
However to give you some perspective... Tanguay, Brunette and Holmstrom and Vanek all have 3 or more seasons of 18.5% or better since the lockout... are we really not willing to say Eberle could finish his career as good as any as those guys... that's not even Charlie Simmer territory...
A shot from the blue line does not have the same chance of going in as a shot from the crease. That's common sense and it shouldn't need saying. A skater being able to shoot from higher percentage locations is a demonstrated and proven talent - Brunette and Holmstrom's average shot distance was consistently MUCH closer to the net than the average player. They maintained a high shooting percentage by being much closer to the net for most of their shots.

As for Tanguay... He's just a great shooter.

A tale of two talents - one true and...
Quote:
I looked at whether some players exhibited an ability to score more often from a given spot on the ice than other players. This "talent" regressed 75% to the mean, and a high level of skill was really only identifiable in Ilya Kovalchuk and Alex Tanguay.
...and Vanek? His career 15.4% is very good. It's normal for a players sh% to fluctuate within a couple percent of their career average - when your career average is quite high, having a few seasons at a couple percent higher is not unusual. Vanek also has seasons of 12.3, 13.4, and 12.7%.

The idea isn't "every player will regress to the same shooting percentage"... It's that "every player has a shooting percentage they will regress to". Eberle's could very well be as high as Vanek's... but it's almost certainly not 18%. That would make him the best shooter the NHL has seen in 30 years.



As for Eberle, he's now at 3 goals on 42 shots for a shooting percentage under 8%. Regression is a *****.


Last edited by eklunds source: 02-15-2013 at 01:40 AM.
eklunds source is offline  
Old
02-15-2013, 02:59 AM
  #297
Prairie Habs
Registered User
 
Prairie Habs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 3,542
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SephF View Post
This is kind of amusing :

After the first 12 games last year(his 36 goal season) he had 3 goals and a shooting % of 10.3

This year after 12 games he had 3 goals and a shooting % of 8.3

So his shooting percent has fallen 2% if you compare starts.

Not saying he's going to go on a tear like last year but maybe he's just a slow starer.

edit : had my math wrong
He was playing in the AHL so its not like he was just sitting at home.

Prairie Habs is offline  
Old
02-15-2013, 03:27 AM
  #298
GetThePuckOut
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Calgary
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,411
vCash: 582
Some players just have above average shooting percentages. I don't know why this is so hard for some people to understand.

GetThePuckOut is offline  
Old
05-10-2013, 03:55 PM
  #299
truck
HFB Partner
 
truck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 7,044
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallas View Post
Wrong. Eberle has now demonstrated in consecutive seasons in professional leagues that he puts up unusually high shooting percentages. It is more likely that he will remain one of the highest percentage shooters in the league rather than dropping to a 12% shooting percentage.
Wrong. Hahaha.

truck is offline  
Old
05-10-2013, 03:58 PM
  #300
VeteranNetPresence
Disco Super Fly.
 
VeteranNetPresence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,814
vCash: 500
just looked at his salary for next year. that is quite a lot, yikes

VeteranNetPresence is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:49 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.