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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread III

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Old
02-15-2013, 10:31 AM
  #926
markrander87
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Again, I'm not trying to knock the Gare selection, he was 2nd on my list and I think he is more then capable of being a 1st line two way rw.

But when Rousseau gets called out for being a "third liner" and won't provide much offense, its quite clear that his offense is underrated compared to similar players drafted around him.

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02-15-2013, 10:31 AM
  #927
Dwight
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I was hoping Schoenfeld would fall to my next pick...a favorite of mine. Good choice.

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02-15-2013, 10:32 AM
  #928
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That's funny, I had 3 dmen I was thinking about drafting and both of the past 2 picks were on that list. Nice picks.

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02-15-2013, 10:51 AM
  #929
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Again, I'm not trying to knock the Gare selection, he was 2nd on my list and I think he is more then capable of being a 1st line two way rw.

But when Rousseau gets called out for being a "third liner" and won't provide much offense, its quite clear that his offense is underrated compared to similar players drafted around him.
I didn't think he got the love he deserved on my team last year. People slammed my 3rd line for being strangely built, but I knew it would have clicked because it had Rousseau at RW - he's a stud at both ends. Not physical, but you don't need everyone playing with truckulance.

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02-15-2013, 11:04 AM
  #930
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Halifax selects Walt Tkaczuk, C.

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Old
02-15-2013, 11:16 AM
  #931
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Keith "Big Walt" Tkachuk and Walt Tkaczuk drafted close together. Who's taking Daniel?

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02-15-2013, 11:34 AM
  #932
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I select Dany Heatley beocuse i'm going to bed.

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Old
02-15-2013, 12:40 PM
  #933
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Also I think Rousseaus offense is underated. Compared to Gare Rousseau blows him out of the water. (No offense (no pun) billy but gare is being used as a first line rw as well.)
Blows him out of the water? If you just look at percentages and raw finishes, it may seem that way, but there is way more that needs to be taken into account here. Most importantly is the fact that Danny Gare played basically his entire relevant career on a checking line. Rousseau, from what I see, was known as the defensive conscious of a scoring line, but I don't believe his lines were used as the go-to checking line, please correct me if I'm wrong because I won't pretend to be an expert on Rousseau. The main responsibility of Gare's line was to shut down the opposition, and they were so good at it that they were then able to put up that many points while doing that extremely well. Rousseau also played with significantly better linemates, but I'm not exactly sure who he played with. I'm pretty sure it was some combination of Beliveau/Richard at center and possibly Duff or an undrafted at LW. Even if it was Richard and an undrafted at LW, that means he was clearly playing with better players than Gare, which needs to be taken into account.

The final thing to look at comparing them is the fact that Rousseau got pretty big minutes on the power play playing with some dynamite offensive players, whereas Gare only played extensive time on the PP for 2 seasons out of his career. It's not fair to compare straight Vs2 scores when Rousseau was on a dynamite PP with a bevy of talent, and Gare rarely every got that chance. Here's how they look in terms of ES scoring, which paints a very different picture:

Rousseau scored 228 career points on the power play, or 32.4% of his total career points
Gare scored 150 career points on the power play, or 21.9% of his total career points

Rousseau played about 12.72 "seasons"(using 74 games as a season because his career was pretty much split between playing 70 and 78 game seasons), and scored 475 ES points, meaning he averaged 37.34 ES points per season.

Gare played about 10.34 "seasons"(he played basically all 80 game seasons) and scored 51.74 ES points per season.

Now, Gare played in a higher scoring era so more analysis is needed here to get a complete understanding. HR's adjusted stats give Rousseau's numbers a 3.6% boost from 703 career points to 729. That's not enough, so he deserves a bit of a boost because part of his career was pre-expansion, which tends to underrate adjusted points. The number is usually 10-15%, but Rousseau played 6.8 "seasons"(using 78 now because all but one of his post-expansion seasons was 78 games) post-expansion so I'll give him the lower end of that, 10% in addition to the 3.6%. 13.6%*37.34 ES points per season gives Rousseau 42.42 ES points per season. Do the same for Gare, and HR downgrades his offense by 17.5%, and that gives him 42.69 ES points per season.

What does that all mean? When you adjust for era and look at even strength offense, it's basically a wash with a statistically insignificant advantage for Danny Gare. What is not statistically insignificant is the fact that Danny Gare put up those numbers while playing with Craig Ramsay and an undrafted center who is a decent but not great offensive player, and Rousseau put up those numbers playing with Jean Beliveau/Henri Richard. Then, take into account that Gare did it on a checking line while Rousseau was merely a defensive conscious on a scoring line, I'm failing to see why Bobby Rousseau is a better offensive player.

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Old
02-15-2013, 12:57 PM
  #934
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I select Dany Heatley beocuse i'm going to bed.
Does anyone follow the "NOT Dany Heatley" account on Twitter? Priceless.

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02-15-2013, 12:58 PM
  #935
BenchBrawl
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Again, I'm not trying to knock the Gare selection, he was 2nd on my list and I think he is more then capable of being a 1st line two way rw.

But when Rousseau gets called out for being a "third liner" and won't provide much offense, its quite clear that his offense is underrated compared to similar players drafted around him.
How is Rousseau not a 3rd line player on average?

I understand you have strong players on your 2nd line so there's a void on the 1st , but that doesn't mean you'll get away with it without confrontation.Rousseau is a terrible , terrible first line winger any way you cut it.

If you think Rousseau is better than Gare and then describe Gare as a ''MORE than capable'' 1st line winger , then your judgement is foolish.


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 02-15-2013 at 01:03 PM.
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02-15-2013, 01:04 PM
  #936
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Blows him out of the water? If you just look at percentages and raw finishes, it may seem that way, but there is way more that needs to be taken into account here. Most importantly is the fact that Danny Gare played basically his entire relevant career on a checking line. Rousseau, from what I see, was known as the defensive conscious of a scoring line, but I don't believe his lines were used as the go-to checking line, please correct me if I'm wrong because I won't pretend to be an expert on Rousseau. The main responsibility of Gare's line was to shut down the opposition, and they were so good at it that they were then able to put up that many points while doing that extremely well.
Guys don't post multiple 50 goal seasons from a "checking line".

They were a 2nd line and a two way line if anything.

And Gare was primarily on the offensive part of the two way in my estimation.

So is being the offensive guy on a second line that was also good defensively really that much different a situation individually than being the defensive conscience of a line that was mostly used for offense?

All that said, would I want Rousseau on a front line in this? Not unless the circumstances were very unique indeed.

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02-15-2013, 01:07 PM
  #937
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Guys don't post multiple 50 goal seasons from a "checking line".

They were a 2nd line and a two way line if anything.

And Gare was primarily on the offensive part of the two way in my estimation.

So is being the offensive guy on a second line that was also good defensively really that much different a situation individually than being the defensive conscience of a line that was mostly used for offense?

All that said, would I want Rousseau on a front line in this? Not unless the circumstances were very unique indeed.
In my mind , the difference between these two situations is that the guy providing the offense on a checking line is superior offensively than the guy racking up points by simply being there with elite offensive players.Offensively speaking , I prefer a player who proved to be a go-to-guy on a line than a 3rd wheel.

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Old
02-15-2013, 01:09 PM
  #938
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Originally Posted by Jafar View Post
In my mind , the difference between these two situations is that the guy providing the offense on a checking line is superior offensively than the guy racking up points by simply being there with elite offensive players.Offensively speaking , I prefer a player who proved to be a go-to-guy on a line than a 3rd wheel.
You'd have to murder his stats heavily to make up the gap in the vs2 mark posted, though.

Not to mention Rousseau did lead the team in scoring at least once if I recall.. so again, I hate the so and so was a product of so and so talk..

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Old
02-15-2013, 01:12 PM
  #939
BenchBrawl
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
You'd have to murder his stats heavily to make up the gap in the vs2 mark posted, though.
I wasn't necessarily speaking about Rousseau or Gare , your question was more general about two situations that happens often.

About Rousseau and Gare , Billy did mentionned that Rousseau relied way more on the PP than 5-on-5 to rack up his points , and how many PP time will Rousseau get in this league? He might play on the 1st line but will he play on the 1st PP wave?

Either way this isn't my debate to win or lose.I'll let the GMs concerned go at it.

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02-15-2013, 01:17 PM
  #940
Dwight
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This may be a bit off-topic, but is there a thread somewhere that explains how the Vs#2 thing works? I really, really want to understand it, but I'm going into the thread for it and am completely lost, lol.

Thanks

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Old
02-15-2013, 01:28 PM
  #941
BillyShoe1721
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Guys don't post multiple 50 goal seasons from a "checking line".

They were a 2nd line and a two way line if anything.

And Gare was primarily on the offensive part of the two way in my estimation.

So is being the offensive guy on a second line that was also good defensively really that much different a situation individually than being the defensive conscience of a line that was mostly used for offense?

All that said, would I want Rousseau on a front line in this? Not unless the circumstances were very unique indeed.
Gare referred to them as the checking line himself:

Quote:
After registering 31 goals and helping Buffalo to the Cup finals as a rookie in 1974-75, Gare took his game to a higher level in his second season. Despite playing on Buffalo's checking line, Gare scored 50 goals.

"I think one of the biggest memories I have is obviously being a young player in my second year here and playing on a checking line withxxx and Craig Ramsay. We were a checking line and we always played against the top lines. And I remember going into my last game against the Toronto Maple Leafs with 47 goals and we were checking the Darryl Sittler, Lanny McDonald and xxx line. And I was just hoping to maybe get a sniff at 50 and fortunately for myself I got three that night and got my 50th goal. So that was a big thrill to get 50 goals in your second year and especially the type of position I was in, like I mentioned, the checking line."
http://redwingslegends.blogspot.com/...anny-gare.html

It's entirely possible to be a top 6 line and still be the checking line, look no further than the line Bobby Rousseau is on for Mark's team.

Quote:
In year two, Gare joined xxx and Craig Ramsey on the club's checking line. They played a great two-way game as Gare tallied his first 50-goal season.
http://www.legendsofhockey.net/Legen...2#.UR6MM2fSkw8

Quote:
Gare blossomed in his second NHL season. Despite playing on what was widely regarded as a checking line with xxx and Craig Ramsey, Gare scored a hat trick in the final game of the season to give him a team leading 50 goals.
http://sabreslegends.blogspot.com/20...anny-gare.html


Last edited by BillyShoe1721: 02-15-2013 at 01:45 PM.
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Old
02-15-2013, 01:31 PM
  #942
markrander87
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Originally Posted by Dwight View Post
This may be a bit off-topic, but is there a thread somewhere that explains how the Vs#2 thing works? I really, really want to understand it, but I'm going into the thread for it and am completely lost, lol.

Thanks
All I did was divide said players stats by the 2nd place scorer for that season.

LOL at the backwards ATD thinking.

Well player X was good enough offensively to play PP minutes and player Y didn't play on the PP so player Y gets bonus points offensively.

Let's punish a player because he was looked upon by his coach as having the offensive talent to play on the PP.

There is a reason Rousseaus coach (TOE BLAKE) used him on the PP and Gare was not used by his coach on the PP.

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02-15-2013, 01:33 PM
  #943
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post

It's entirely possible to be a top 6 line and still be the checking line, look no further than the line Bobby Rousseau is on for Mark's team.

Again, I 100% agree. Gare was my number 2 option. These 2 players for example proved that they are capable of not only playing against opponents top players, but they were able to produce high offensive numbers as well.

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02-15-2013, 01:38 PM
  #944
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
You'd have to murder his stats heavily to make up the gap in the vs2 mark posted, though.

Not to mention Rousseau did lead the team in scoring at least once if I recall.. so again, I hate the so and so was a product of so and so talk..
Twice, he also outproduced Beliveau 4-5 times (Beliveau was at the end of his career)

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02-15-2013, 01:38 PM
  #945
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Gare referred to them as the checking line himself:
(you've got some undrafteds sprinkled through there)

I know it is quibbling over semantics, but these guys were not a traditional checking line like we refer to them usually in the ATD.

You know that.

Heck one of your own quotes also says they played a two-way game.

And wouldn't you agree that Gare was the worst of the three players from a defensive standpoint? (while being the strongest offensively)

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02-15-2013, 01:40 PM
  #946
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Twice, he also outproduced Beliveau 4-5 times (Beliveau was at the end of his career)
Oh so Beliveau was a product of Rousseau later in their careers then.

Good to know

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02-15-2013, 01:42 PM
  #947
markrander87
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Oh so Beliveau was a product of Rousseau later in their careers then.

Good to know

Lol, according to these guys then yes.

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02-15-2013, 01:53 PM
  #948
Rob Scuderi
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Twice, he also outproduced Beliveau 4-5 times (Beliveau was at the end of his career)
I think games played was a bigger factor than Beliveau's age.

'62
Rousseau - 45 pts, 70 GP
Beliveau - 41 pts, 43 GP

'65
Rousseau - 47 pts, 66 gp
Beliveau - 43 pts, 58 gp

'66
Rousseau - 78 pts, 70 gp
Beliveau - 77 pts, 67 gp

'67
Rousseau - 63 pts, 68 gp
Beliveau - 38 pts, 53 gp

'70
Rousseau - 58 pts, 72 gp
Beliveau - 49 pts, 63 gp

Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Oh so Beliveau was a product of Rousseau later in their careers then.

Good to know
Hey man he cleanly beat Beliveau during the worst offensive season of his 18 year career. He also outpaced him by a few tenths of a point another year, give him some credit.


Last edited by Rob Scuderi: 02-15-2013 at 01:59 PM.
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02-15-2013, 01:58 PM
  #949
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
I think games played was a bigger factor than Beliveau's age.

'62
Rousseau - 45 pts, 70 GP
Beliveau - 41 pts, 43 GP

'65
Rousseau - 47 pts, 66 gp
Beliveau - 43 pts, 58 gp

'66
Rousseau - 78 pts, 70 gp
Beliveau - 77 pts, 67 gp

'67
Rousseau - 63 pts, 68 gp
Beliveau - 38 pts, 53 gp

'70
Rousseau - 58 pts, 72 gp
Beliveau - 49 pts, 63 gp

Agreed, I think this post works even more in favour of Rousseaus offense. Clearly he wasn't "just a product of Beliveau."

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02-15-2013, 02:02 PM
  #950
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Guys don't post multiple 50 goal seasons from a "checking line".

They were a 2nd line and a two way line if anything.

And Gare was primarily on the offensive part of the two way in my estimation.

So is being the offensive guy on a second line that was also good defensively really that much different a situation individually than being the defensive conscience of a line that was mostly used for offense?

All that said, would I want Rousseau on a front line in this? Not unless the circumstances were very unique indeed.
Gare might have been on the checking line at even strength, but he did get his fair share of PP goals playing next to Perreault, especially in 1980 and 1981. 1976 seems more of a legitimate (scoring 50 from the checking line) season, since only 8 of them were on the PP.

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