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Some of our team stats look really bad...

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Old
02-15-2013, 03:53 PM
  #76
ToeDrag83
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Scoring is the sole reason we are not winning, plain and simple.

This team, on paper and on the ice, will win with their offence. I actually think the defence and goaltending have been sufficient to above average this year (I have removed Whitney from consideration to make those statements mildly valid).

Here is the problem:

Hall-RNH-Eberle

Games - 13
Scoring chances - Infinity
Goals - 6

Yakupov-Gagner-Hemsky

Games - 13
Scoring chances - Respectable Amount
Goals - 14

The second line is not carrying the team with that offence, Nor should they be expected to. Just over 1 goal a game is very respectable for the production required from secondary scoring to win games. Assuming your first line is performing better.

If this team is going to win, that number for goals from the first line has to get in the range of 16-18 over approximately that number of games. That would put the team at 40 goals for overall, good for top 10 in the league. It's not only reasonable for this team to expect our offense to be top 10 in the league, it is required if we want to go anywhere. In other words, Hall-RNH-Eberle have to lead and carry this team, as unfortunate as that is for them at this age. I refuse to believe they're not good enough.

Who could've seen this coming? All these question marks before the season, not one of us anticipated our offensive output would be the main factor holding us back.

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Old
02-15-2013, 03:57 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by GreatKeith View Post
Well it's not working for the Kings this year....

I don't think they'll come out flat against the Avs.
How many SC winning teams come out strong to start the next season? It almost never happens. Don't kid yourself...LA is a very good team and its no coincidence that they are a big team.

I expect the Oilers to beat the Av's on Saturday simply because they will be better prepared and rested than the Av's will. Also the Av's have too many important pieces missing from their lineup.

That said I don't believe for 1 second that the Oilers roster is balanced enough (as it stands now) to scare anybody in the playoffs.

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Old
02-15-2013, 03:59 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by ChadSC View Post
It's only a matter of time before MacT is the GM.
I wonder what he would be like as a GM.

We would have a gritty team I bet.

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Old
02-15-2013, 04:00 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by guymez View Post
How many SC winning teams come out strong to start the next season? It almost never happens. Don't kid yourself...LA is a very good team and its no coincidence that they are a big team.

I expect the Oilers to beat the Av's on Saturday simply because they will be better prepared and rested than the Av's will. Also the Av's have too many important pieces missing from their lineup.

That said I don't believe for 1 second that the Oilers roster is balanced enough (as it stands now) to scare anybody in the playoffs.
I agree, but the Kings are a playoff team and even with Carter and Richards weren't scoring enough goals. I'd be surprised if they didn't turn it around, but their offense didn't get an upgrade from last year and they were 29th in GF. The difference more often than not was Quick. Same with Rinne this year in Nashville. Their offense is 30th but Rinne bails them out on most nights.

And I'd be satisfied just making the playoffs, regardless of the result.

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02-15-2013, 04:00 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Mr Forever View Post
I wonder what he would be like as a GM.

We would have a gritty team I bet.
I think MacT has a far better idea of what a balanced roster looks like than Tambo does.
MacT would be a major step up from Tambo.

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02-15-2013, 04:07 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by GreatKeith View Post
I agree, but the Kings are a playoff team and even with Carter and Richards weren't scoring enough goals. I'd be surprised if they didn't turn it around, but their offense didn't get an upgrade from last year and they were 29th in GF. The difference more often than not was Quick. Same with Rinne this year in Nashville. Their offense is 30th but Rinne bails them out on most nights.

And I'd be satisfied just making the playoffs, regardless of the result.
The acquisitions that mattered happened well into the season and it turned the team around offensively. It mirrored their 5x5 success which (as i mentioned) was a progression from being very bad to becoming very good.

I agree about Quick though...he is a top 5 goalie.

The Oilers just need a few more pieces (2 big bodies in the top 6 and a legit top 4 puck moving dman) ...the part that concerns me is that Tambo's history has shown he really doesn't have a sense of what areas have needed to be addressed.
I need more than hope....I need evidence showing that the GM has a sense of what the team really needs and then actually doing something about it.
The evidence suggests that there is little to no reason to believe that he will be able to address the holes on this years version or any future version of this team.

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Old
02-15-2013, 04:10 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by guymez View Post
I think MacT has a far better idea of what a balanced roster looks like than Tambo does.
MacT would be a major step up from Tambo.
I have to agree.

I really think Kevin Lowe needs to go. This team needs new blood.

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Old
02-15-2013, 04:16 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Expatriate View Post
WOW, I didn't think that there would be no correlation at all. I was expecting maybe ~ .75
To be fair, while there is no correlation to a PP%, there is correlation to be found when it comes to the powerplay. But not a huge correlation.

PPG:Win%
Correl - 0.3049

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Old
02-15-2013, 04:32 PM
  #84
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Our inconsistant defence is our undoing right now.

Teams don't rack up wins until they establish a solid group of d-men who have stable roles. Right now, 5-on-5, J.Schultz is the only threat to score, or to make a pass leading to a scoring chance.

If I am a team defending the Oilers 5-on-5, its like defending a 3-on-5 because the d-men are simply a non factor (excluding J.Schultz).

If Whitney and Sutton were healthy and contributing it'd be a far better group, and the forwards would be getting more offensive help from the back end.

Right now, its a perpetual 3-on-5. And until the d-group can develop their system play into a legitimate 5-on-5 squad, we are hooped.

Right now reminds me of 2006-07 when Greene, Smith, Smid and Staois had zero offence from the back end. Only MAB and Tjarnquist could provide any offence, and all the team were minus players because of it. In that year, you can see the effect on Lupul going from a 28 goal guy in ANA, then to a 16 goal guy in EDM, then to 20 goals in 56 games in Philly. Zero back end support zapped away offence for the forwards.

You simply cannot cobble together a group of d-men and expect to win.

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Old
02-15-2013, 04:37 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
no big news to most I'm sure.

We have by far the worst shots for - shots against per game ratio in the league at -6.7. Dallas and Nashville are at -5.8, -5.7 respectively and no other team is close to that.

28th in goals for per game just ahead of Minnesota and Nashville.

Brutally dead last in in 5-5 goals with 11. A massive gap between us and the next lowest being Florida at 16. 14 teams in the league have at least twice as many 5-5 goals as we do.

We should be feeling VERY fortunate that we are where we are points and standings wise considering the team performance this year so far.
Yes we sure do, but these all average out and work out when Eberle and RNH start scoring. Maybe even get some 3rd line scoring, welcome Jones.

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Old
02-15-2013, 04:40 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by HotToddy75 View Post
Our inconsistant defence is our undoing right now.
I'd take the opposite side of this argument.

On defense, the Oilers are the 11th best team in the NHL.

Offense... 28th.

The bright spot here, if there is, it's more important to be better on defense than offense. So the Oilers have a good base at the moment, assuming they can keep it up, they just need to put the puck in the net.

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02-15-2013, 04:47 PM
  #87
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Not enough shots... not high enough shooting accuracy... too many shots against.

Only strong category is save percentage. Dubnyk is basically standing on his head and dragging this team kicking and screaming towards a possible playoff spot. Poor bugger can't do it alone though.

Last game vs Dallas was promising though... more shots, less against but they still aren't finishing. Dubnyk had a couple flukes go in as well but overall was solid again.

If the Oilers can turn it around and have more games like their last one... they'll start being a much more competitive team again. If not, they are another bottom 5 team again even if Dubnyk keeps up his stellar play.

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Old
02-15-2013, 05:07 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ToeDrag83 View Post
Scoring is the sole reason we are not winning, plain and simple.

This team, on paper and on the ice, will win with their offence. I actually think the defence and goaltending have been sufficient to above average this year (I have removed Whitney from consideration to make those statements mildly valid).

Here is the problem:

Hall-RNH-Eberle

Games - 13
Scoring chances - Infinity
Goals - 6


Yakupov-Gagner-Hemsky

Games - 13
Scoring chances - Respectable Amount
Goals - 14

The second line is not carrying the team with that offence, Nor should they be expected to. Just over 1 goal a game is very respectable for the production required from secondary scoring to win games. Assuming your first line is performing better.

If this team is going to win, that number for goals from the first line has to get in the range of 16-18 over approximately that number of games. That would put the team at 40 goals for overall, good for top 10 in the league. It's not only reasonable for this team to expect our offense to be top 10 in the league, it is required if we want to go anywhere. In other words, Hall-RNH-Eberle have to lead and carry this team, as unfortunate as that is for them at this age. I refuse to believe they're not good enough.

Who could've seen this coming? All these question marks before the season, not one of us anticipated our offensive output would be the main factor holding us back.
Is really the biggest issue and is really just an anomaly. You can say "were playing the toughest competition", yes we are and we're utterly dominating them other than not putting it in the net. I expect the top line to get going eventually.

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Old
02-15-2013, 05:10 PM
  #89
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Want nothing to do with Brian Burke, unless he wants to organize a parade, but that's it. Nearly all the pieces in Anaheim were already there and Pronger fell into his lap. In Toronto, he promised playoffs every year and a tougher team, and none of that happened during his tenure. He had 4 years to find a starting goalie and a #1 centre and failed miserably. He spent the first 2 years in Toronto flushing away draft picks and the last 2 years trying to acquire them. No apparent plan. The guy is way over-rated, IMO and I'd like to see how things play out here in the next while before some people pee their pants over the opportunity to hire Jesus Burke.

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02-15-2013, 05:15 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChadSC View Post
I'd take the opposite side of this argument.

On defense, the Oilers are the 11th best team in the NHL.

Offense... 28th.

The bright spot here, if there is, it's more important to be better on defense than offense. So the Oilers have a good base at the moment, assuming they can keep it up, they just need to put the puck in the net.
I think the 1th best is in the goaltending department, not defence. This team has been consistently outshot, sometimes by wide margins, other times by ridiculous margins. I think it will come around, but our team defence has been horrible, and Whitney and Potter in particular have been disasters for most of the young year.


Saying all that, I do believe the entire team will get better, much better, as the young guys adapt to their new roles, some injured players come back, and the system starts to sink in.

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Old
02-15-2013, 05:16 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ToeDrag83 View Post
Scoring is the sole reason we are not winning, plain and simple.

This team, on paper and on the ice, will win with their offence. I actually think the defence and goaltending have been sufficient to above average this year (I have removed Whitney from consideration to make those statements mildly valid).

Here is the problem:

Hall-RNH-Eberle

Games - 13
Scoring chances - Infinity
Goals - 6

Yakupov-Gagner-Hemsky

Games - 13
Scoring chances - Respectable Amount
Goals - 14

The second line is not carrying the team with that offence, Nor should they be expected to. Just over 1 goal a game is very respectable for the production required from secondary scoring to win games. Assuming your first line is performing better.

If this team is going to win, that number for goals from the first line has to get in the range of 16-18 over approximately that number of games. That would put the team at 40 goals for overall, good for top 10 in the league. It's not only reasonable for this team to expect our offense to be top 10 in the league, it is required if we want to go anywhere. In other words, Hall-RNH-Eberle have to lead and carry this team, as unfortunate as that is for them at this age. I refuse to believe they're not good enough.

Who could've seen this coming? All these question marks before the season, not one of us anticipated our offensive output would be the main factor holding us back.
Solid post but with all due respect I was calling out the toplines play in OKC on a regular basis and seeing extensive trouble with that units persistence, consistency, and battle effort. No doubt that the stars feasted on lesser, or unprepared opponents but against reasonable efforts, pressure, and team systems they struggled. At the AHL level.
That this line wasn't clicking and working to the degree that they should was not only predictable, it was being demonstrated.

I guess people expected the topline to just escalate their performance as soon as the NHL season started. That seldom happens seamlessly. Bad habits, I could list several, were being acquired, which I called out several times and few agreed with the concerns. Fact is my comments were being shouted out in those game threads as being ridiculous.

Without being paired with J Schultz the top line is horrendous. RNH 5 on5 production is 1pt/60mins. These are Brodziak type numbers playing on 2nd or 3rd line. They are incomprehensible for a #1 pick top unit forward with huge toi.

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02-15-2013, 05:25 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
I think the 1th best is in the goaltending department, not defence. This team has been consistently outshot, sometimes by wide margins, other times by ridiculous margins. I think it will come around, but our team defence has been horrible, and Whitney and Potter in particular have been disasters for most of the young year.
Valid point.

Oilers are 5th in the NHL in save percentage.

Dubnyk deserves a significant part of the credit for this, however, he clearly isn't being left on an island and the Oilers D are doing something right to help on this end of the ice.

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02-15-2013, 05:26 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Want nothing to do with Brian Burke, unless he wants to organize a parade, but that's it. Nearly all the pieces in Anaheim were already there and Pronger fell into his lap. In Toronto, he promised playoffs every year and a tougher team, and none of that happened during his tenure. He had 4 years to find a starting goalie and a #1 centre and failed miserably. He spent the first 2 years in Toronto flushing away draft picks and the last 2 years trying to acquire them. No apparent plan. The guy is way over-rated, IMO and I'd like to see how things play out here in the next while before some people pee their pants over the opportunity to hire Jesus Burke.
He would never be gm do you think quiet and reserved Lowe and Katz would want this attention whoring blowhard running the team.

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02-15-2013, 05:28 PM
  #94
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Valid point.

Oilers are 5th in the NHL in save percentage.

Dubnyk deserves a significant part of the credit for this, however, he clearly isn't being left on an island and the Oilers D are doing something right to help on this end of the ice.
Not sure of that either. The Oilers give up tons of point blank chances and with Dubnyk staring off shooters at close range. I think if anything for some reason we don't tend to notice it because of how often, and how regular this has been. Teams are outshooting and outchancing us most nights.

This team is bad 5 on 5. Lucky for the club this has been a year where the NHL has made several new rules and so special teams play is commonplace.

When theres less calls towards the end of season (and there always is a decline) things will likely get worse for us.

Could you imagine this club in the playoffs not being able to score 5 on 5 and waiting furtively for the few PP chances/night they might get?

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02-15-2013, 05:31 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Not sure of that either. The Oilers give up tons of point blank chances and with Dubnyk staring off shooters at close range. I think if anything for some reason we don't tend to notice it because of how often, and how regular this has been. Teams are outshooting and outchancing us most nights.

This team is bad 5 on 5. Lucky for the club this has been a year where the NHL has made several new rules .
Until we can get statistics on "point blank" chances we can't really know if his save % against these shots are higher/lower than other goalies or if the Oilers give up more/less than other teams.

But you are 100% right on the outshot side of the question. Been a huge problem since the 2005-06 season.

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02-15-2013, 08:43 PM
  #96
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I like this... Instead of waiting for them to get better, we can take comfort in knowing that they will. There will come a time that this team explodes. From top to bottom, games where the best teams bring their best game and it won't be enough.

My hope is for the fans.

I hope you cheer with the same attention for detail that you scrutinized them with! We deserve a winning team, and it's in front of us right now. It's time we let them know it. Let's go Oilers! Let's go!

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02-15-2013, 08:55 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Yes we sure do, but these all average out and work out when Eberle and RNH start scoring. Maybe even get some 3rd line scoring, welcome Jones.
And at the same time our goaltending and special teams even out as well. You know where that leaves us.

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02-15-2013, 09:11 PM
  #98
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no big news to most I'm sure.

We have by far the worst shots for - shots against per game ratio in the league at -6.7. Dallas and Nashville are at -5.8, -5.7 respectively and no other team is close to that.

28th in goals for per game just ahead of Minnesota and Nashville.

Brutally dead last in in 5-5 goals with 11. A massive gap between us and the next lowest being Florida at 16. 14 teams in the league have at least twice as many 5-5 goals as we do.

We should be feeling VERY fortunate that we are where we are points and standings wise considering the team performance this year so far.
This point is weirdly what keeps me optimistic.

Look at where we are standings-wise, and we haven't even started playing well yet. Imagine when/if we turn it on.

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02-15-2013, 09:16 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Solid post but with all due respect I was calling out the toplines play in OKC on a regular basis and seeing extensive trouble with that units persistence, consistency, and battle effort. No doubt that the stars feasted on lesser, or unprepared opponents but against reasonable efforts, pressure, and team systems they struggled. At the AHL level.
That this line wasn't clicking and working to the degree that they should was not only predictable, it was being demonstrated.

I guess people expected the topline to just escalate their performance as soon as the NHL season started. That seldom happens seamlessly. Bad habits, I could list several, were being acquired, which I called out several times and few agreed with the concerns. Fact is my comments were being shouted out in those game threads as being ridiculous.

Without being paired with J Schultz the top line is horrendous. RNH 5 on5 production is 1pt/60mins. These are Brodziak type numbers playing on 2nd or 3rd line. They are incomprehensible for a #1 pick top unit forward with huge toi.
Yeah apologies, didn't mean to throw out a blanket statement like that.

RNH's situation especially on that top line just disappoints to no end. Our five-on-five play is a team wide issue, but what concerns me is opposing teams are completely shutting him down on the powerplay. They don't even keep their sticks active, they simply take away the cross ice pass to Eberle. Schultz is the only pass option on the outside, and teams have enough time to take away his wrister when they know that's where the puck is going.

The best players adapt to defensive awareness of other team and try to be unpredictable. RNH is smart enough to do this, and what is going to get that PP going again is some actual mobility. The stationary umbrella is easy to coach against unfortunately. Gotta move that puck faster and get the PK'ers scrambling a little.

I'll try to stay positive and say that if he gets on a hot streak (somehow) the team will go on a little mini winning streak themselves. He has to be the offensive leader on this team. Time to take the chances out of scoring chances =P

Quote:
Originally Posted by McArthur View Post
I like this... Instead of waiting for them to get better, we can take comfort in knowing that they will. There will come a time that this team explodes. From top to bottom, games where the best teams bring their best game and it won't be enough.

My hope is for the fans.

I hope you cheer with the same attention for detail that you scrutinized them with! We deserve a winning team, and it's in front of us right now. It's time we let them know it. Let's go Oilers! Let's go!
There's one of these predictions in every GDT, and it always gets my hopes up no matter what don't know about anyone else, but it leaves me extra frustrated every game.

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Old
02-15-2013, 11:00 PM
  #100
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What exactly are they saying about Nuge's health in Edmonton?

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