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Old
02-16-2013, 09:59 PM
  #726
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Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
The only thing that saves me is I'm also an OSU alum, so at least I've had some pretty good football and basketball teams in the recent past.

If not for that, I'd probably have to give up sports and go to the symphony or some artsy crap with my wife.

By the way, I suspect there are a lot of Central Ohio sports fans like me, which means when the CBJ do finally get good, we're going to blow the roof off this city.
That's a great way to look at it!

I know Cleveland is always mentioned as one of the most miserable sports cities in the country. I grew up a Browns fan, but when the old Browns moved, I couldn't bear to support the expansion team. It just isn't the same. The result was that I stopped enjoying football and really focused on hockey, so it isn't all bad. To this day, I still don't watch the NFL, but I really love watching NCAA football ... at least for those kids, it's still about the sport, and not about shoe deals or touchdown celebrations.

Seattle is very much the same. The Seahawks are typically middle-tier, the Mariners have stunk since some guy named Ichiro won rookie of the year, and they don't even have their NBA team (yet). Being the closest city, it's hard to find coverage on any other teams than the Seattle ones, though Spokane does have a WHL team, and a minor league baseball team (that wins the championship almost every year - nobody notices).

So, while Cleveland may be miserable as far as winning goes, at least they have their teams. It could be worse!

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02-16-2013, 10:38 PM
  #727
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Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
I reject this theory. We frequently see examples of elite talent drafted before AND AFTER our picks. Better scouting plays a large role in that. While it is undoubtedly easier to pick elite talents with higher draft picks (because at that point there's a lot more research data available), it is certainly not a requirement, and therefore it SHOULD NOT be a goal.
I'm not surprised you "reject" the theory. You have a tendency to reject opinions you don't agree with.

While there are always exceptions to the rule-
Truth of the matter is there is almost always a few elite players in every draft and then a dropoff. We have ALWAYS ended up with a pick after the elite players are gone. Apparently we have never been bad enough to get the worst record or the right combination of ping pong balls.

2000- Heatly and Gaborik were the elite players, we drafted 4th.
2001-Kovalchuk and Spezza were elite, we drafted 8th
2002-Nash and Bouwmeester were elite, we drafted 3rd (traded up to 1)
2003-Staal was obviously elite, but so were many others. We drafted 4th. An argument could be made we missed a lot of great players. An argument could also be made Zherdev was elite, he just didn't pan out because he was a head case. I won't reject either theory.
2004-Ovechkin and Malkin were elite, we drafted 4th (traded back to 8th).
2005-Crosby was obviously elite. Johnson and Ryan were also well thought of. We drafted Brule 6th. Should have taken Kopitar in that spot, but neither were considered elite.
2006-Johnson, Toews, Kessel were elite, we drafted 6th.
2007- Kane was clearly the top guy, we drafted 7th
2008-Got Stamkos? followed by the 3 d-men. We drafted 6th.
2009-Tavares, Hedman were elite. We drafted 21.
2010-Taylor and Tyler were elite, we drafted 4th.
2011- RNH, Larsson, Huberdeau, Landeskog, we drafted 8th (traded the pick-Couturier)
2012-Fail for Nail, we drafted 2nd.

Of all the players who were considered elite in the drafts since 2000, ALL of them are or will likely be All-Star quality in the near future, with the possible exceptions of Erik Johnson and Victor Hedman, who are still a very good players.

Even though we were arguably one of the worst 2-3 teams since 2000, we got none of those players except the one we traded up for.

What would this franchise look like if we had some combination of the elite players above?

So the point is, losing to get an elite player is a pretty good investment in the future.

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02-16-2013, 10:47 PM
  #728
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It's a statistical fact-- the probability of getting an elite player is substantially higher with the first two picks than those that follow. Look throughout draft history. This isn't rocket science.

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02-16-2013, 11:37 PM
  #729
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
It's a statistical fact-- the probability of getting an elite player is substantially higher with the first two picks than those that follow. Look throughout draft history. This isn't rocket science.
Actually, TSN did a little breakdown of this after last year's draft, when it became evident that the Islanders had offered us all seven of their draft picks to move up and select Ryan Murray. Historically, all seven of those draft picks wouldn't have amounted to the player selected second overall in almost every draft.

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02-17-2013, 01:03 AM
  #730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
I'm not surprised you "reject" the theory. You have a tendency to reject opinions you don't agree with.

While there are always exceptions to the rule-
Truth of the matter is there is almost always a few elite players in every draft and then a dropoff. We have ALWAYS ended up with a pick after the elite players are gone. Apparently we have never been bad enough to get the worst record or the right combination of ping pong balls.

2000- Heatly and Gaborik were the elite players, we drafted 4th.
2001-Kovalchuk and Spezza were elite, we drafted 8th
2002-Nash and Bouwmeester were elite, we drafted 3rd (traded up to 1)
2003-Staal was obviously elite, but so were many others. We drafted 4th. An argument could be made we missed a lot of great players. An argument could also be made Zherdev was elite, he just didn't pan out because he was a head case. I won't reject either theory.
2004-Ovechkin and Malkin were elite, we drafted 4th (traded back to 8th).
2005-Crosby was obviously elite. Johnson and Ryan were also well thought of. We drafted Brule 6th. Should have taken Kopitar in that spot, but neither were considered elite.
2006-Johnson, Toews, Kessel were elite, we drafted 6th.
2007- Kane was clearly the top guy, we drafted 7th
2008-Got Stamkos? followed by the 3 d-men. We drafted 6th.
2009-Tavares, Hedman were elite. We drafted 21.
2010-Taylor and Tyler were elite, we drafted 4th.
2011- RNH, Larsson, Huberdeau, Landeskog, we drafted 8th (traded the pick-Couturier)
2012-Fail for Nail, we drafted 2nd.

Of all the players who were considered elite in the drafts since 2000, ALL of them are or will likely be All-Star quality in the near future, with the possible exceptions of Erik Johnson and Victor Hedman, who are still a very good players.

Even though we were arguably one of the worst 2-3 teams since 2000, we got none of those players except the one we traded up for.

What would this franchise look like if we had some combination of the elite players above?

So the point is, losing to get an elite player is a pretty good investment in the future.
Yeah, I think drafting in the top 3-4 for elite talent is pretty obvious to anyone with hockey knowledge, not sure how Viq doesn't know this.

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02-17-2013, 01:14 AM
  #731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
I reject this theory. We frequently see examples of elite talent drafted before AND AFTER our picks. Better scouting plays a large role in that. While it is undoubtedly easier to pick elite talents with higher draft picks (because at that point there's a lot more research data available), it is certainly not a requirement, and therefore it SHOULD NOT be a goal.
yeah, it just so happens your boy Howson always had that elite talent drafted both before and after him, and we missed it every single year.

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02-17-2013, 07:15 AM
  #732
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SF, very nice presentation of facts supporting your position.

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02-17-2013, 08:12 AM
  #733
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Its nonsense to think elite players are mostly found in the first couple picks. The last certain HOF'r to retire (Lidstrom) was drafted in the 3rd round. And its nonsense to advocate losing for top draft picks.

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02-17-2013, 09:12 AM
  #734
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Originally Posted by IBleedUnionBlue View Post
Its nonsense to think elite players are mostly found in the first couple picks. The last certain HOF'r to retire (Lidstrom) was drafted in the 3rd round. And its nonsense to advocate losing for top draft picks.
See bolded word to help you understand Capn's point.

And once again, no one, I don't think, is advocating losing on purpose on the ice. What most are saying is that given the sorry state of the team right now (and historically) shedding all players that don't fit in the long term plans (assuming that now we have one) to obtain more draft choices or players that do fit the long term is a sensible thing to do. If that results in a worse record than otherwise would have been obtained then great. If it leads to a better record now so be it but at least we aren't the ones trading picks for over the hill vets who help us get the 7th-12th pick.

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02-17-2013, 10:04 AM
  #735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBleedUnionBlue View Post
Its nonsense to think elite players are mostly found in the first couple picks. The last certain HOF'r to retire (Lidstrom) was drafted in the 3rd round. And its nonsense to advocate losing for top draft picks.
OK, take a look at the last 25 1st overall picks.
You could make an argument at least 20 were elite players, and 2 or 3 more were very close to elite. So you have an 80% chance of getting an elite player with the #1 pick. Daigle and Stefan were the only clear misses.

By the way, of the 5 non-elite players on this list, Jarmo was involved in drafting three of them (Berard, Phillips, and Johnson)

Mike Modano-Likely HOF
Mats Sundin-HOF
Owen Nolan-All Star
Eric Lindros-All Star, injury problems
Roman Hamrlik- Over 1340 games played.
Alexandre Daigle-didn't pan out
Ed Jovanovski-All-Star
Bryan Berard-Career cut short by injury, still played 619 games
Chris Phillips-Played over 1000 games for Ottawa
Joe Thornton-All Star, maybe HOF
Vincent Lecavalier-All Star
Patrik Stefan-Didn't pan out
Rick DiPietro-All Star, injury problems
Ilya Kovalchuk-All Star
Rick Nash-All Star
Marc-Andre Fleury-All Star
Alexander Ovechkin-All Star
Sidney Crosby-All Star
Erik Johnson-very good player, injury problems
Patrick Kane -All Star
Steven Stamkos-All Star
John Tavares-All Star
Taylor Hall-Looks like an All Star
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Looks like an All Star
Nail Yakupov-Looks like an All Star

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02-17-2013, 10:16 AM
  #736
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBleedUnionBlue View Post
Its nonsense to think elite players are mostly found in the first couple picks. The last certain HOF'r to retire (Lidstrom) was drafted in the 3rd round.
A lot has changed in scouting since Lidström was drafted in 1989. A lot teams barely scouted Sweden then beyond the U18 and U20 teams.

In the last 10 years, top defensemen have been drafted throughout the draft. However, top forwards tend to be drafted in the top 1-4 picks.

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02-17-2013, 10:39 AM
  #737
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Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
...And once again, no one, I don't think, is advocating losing on purpose on the ice. What most are saying is that given the sorry state of the team right now (and historically) shedding all players that don't fit in the long term plans (assuming that now we have one) to obtain more draft choices or players that do fit the long term is a sensible thing to do. If that results in a worse record than otherwise would have been obtained then great. If it leads to a better record now so be it but at least we aren't the ones trading picks for over the hill vets who help us get the 7th-12th pick.
What you describe is not tanking, which most certainly is being advocated by some. I agree with Viqsi regarding losing intentionally to improve draft position; but it really is a silly argument, because only fans advocate it. JD will not allow it, but he well may proceed as EK suggests.

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02-17-2013, 10:45 AM
  #738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBleedUnionBlue View Post
Its nonsense to think elite players are mostly found in the first couple picks. The last certain HOF'r to retire (Lidstrom) was drafted in the 3rd round. And its nonsense to advocate losing for top draft picks.
Well, if you think we have to do everything we can to stop losing, we should immediately trade for Luongo. Whatever it takes, right? He'd fix the gaoltending situation.
Then we need 2-3 solid, top 6 scorers.

With three first round draft picks and guys like Murray and Johansen, I'm sure we could make those trades right now and turn the season around. So, why don't we do that so that everyone can be happy we did literally everything we could to try and win the rest of these games? To do otherwise would be dishonorable, right?

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02-17-2013, 10:46 AM
  #739
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBleedUnionBlue View Post
Its nonsense to think elite players are mostly found in the first couple picks. The last certain HOF'r to retire (Lidstrom) was drafted in the 3rd round. And its nonsense to advocate losing for top draft picks.
On the other hand, Modano is a very recent certain HOF'r to retire and he was drafted 1st overall.

Looking through the list of HOF members they were drafted all over the place. You never know where they will come from. But, we do know the top pick is VERY likely to become an elite player.

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02-17-2013, 11:51 AM
  #740
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Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
I'm not surprised you "reject" the theory. You have a tendency to reject opinions you don't agree with.
...who the hell doesn't?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
While there are always exceptions to the rule-
Which is precisely why it's NOT A REQUIREMENT. Like I said. Here, here's all the actual All-Stars you missed:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2000- Heatly and Gaborik were the elite players, we drafted 4th.
Lubomir Visnovsky. Henrik Lundqvist. Other All-Stars include Scott Hartnell, Alex Frolov, and Justin Williams.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2001-Kovalchuk and Spezza were elite, we drafted 8th
Particularly notable: Patrick Sharp. Also: Ales Hemsky. Jason Pominville. Christobal Huet (although I wonder about that pick.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2002-Nash and Bouwmeester were elite, we drafted 3rd (traded up to 1)
Notables: Alex Semin. Duncan Keith. Also: Joffrey Lupul, Cam Ward, Dennis Wideman.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2003-Staal was obviously elite, but so were many others. We drafted 4th. An argument could be made we missed a lot of great players. An argument could also be made Zherdev was elite, he just didn't pan out because he was a head case. I won't reject either theory.
The same argument could be made for Filatov, but it never is. (And I'm not even going to try to list all the stars in this one...)

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Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2004-Ovechkin and Malkin were elite, we drafted 4th (traded back to 8th).
Mike Green, Alex Edler, Pekka Rinne. Also: Mark Streit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2005-Crosby was obviously elite. Johnson and Ryan were also well thought of. We drafted Brule 6th. Should have taken Kopitar in that spot, but neither were considered elite.
Brule was in fact considered part of the elite. Montreal taking Carey Price ahead of him was thought of as an insane pick, much like how Winnipeg took Schiefele ahead of Couture.

Also, you've already mentioned Kopitar. There's also Marc Staal, James Neal, Paul Stastny, Kris Letang, Jonathan Quick, and Keith Yandle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2006-Johnson, Toews, Kessel were elite, we drafted 6th.
Claude Giroux.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2007- Kane was clearly the top guy, we drafted 7th
Logan Couture. Jamie Benn. PK Subban hasn't been to an ASG yet, but it's really only a matter of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2008-Got Stamkos? followed by the 3 d-men. We drafted 6th.
"Seen Stamkos?" was the promo. Also: Erik Karlsson, Jordan Eberle. And we may well have gotten one in Atkinson.

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2009-Tavares, Hedman were elite. We drafted 21.
Yes, how dare we actually make the playoffs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2010-Taylor and Tyler were elite, we drafted 4th.
Jeff Skinner. And you forgot Cam Fowler.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2011- RNH, Larsson, Huberdeau, Landeskog, we drafted 8th (traded the pick-Couturier)
Nobody from this class has been to the ASG yet, but Dougie Hamilton is generally considered to be potentially elite as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
2012-Fail for Nail, we drafted 2nd.
The exclusion of Ryan Murray is really rather sad. Also, Alex Galchenyuk was considered to be a top guy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
Of all the players who were considered elite in the drafts since 2000, ALL of them are or will likely be All-Star quality in the near future, with the possible exceptions of Erik Johnson and Victor Hedman, who are still a very good players.

Even though we were arguably one of the worst 2-3 teams since 2000, we got none of those players except the one we traded up for.

What would this franchise look like if we had some combination of the elite players above?

So the point is, losing to get an elite player is a pretty good investment in the future.
I'm not claiming that it's somehow not easier to get elite players with high draft picks. I just refuse to allow it to be a goal. I can accept losing due to simply not being good enough. I have no interest in losing just for the sake of losing. That just leads to more losing.

I'm not about to, say, start kicking puppies for the sole purpose of improving my hockey team, either.

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02-17-2013, 11:53 AM
  #741
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Originally Posted by Timeless Winter View Post
Yeah, I think drafting in the top 3-4 for elite talent is pretty obvious to anyone with hockey knowledge, not sure how Viq doesn't know this.
It's not lack of knowledge. It's a refusal to specifically target that area by self-sabotage.

* * *
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yeah, it just so happens your boy Howson always had that elite talent drafted both before and after him, and we missed it every single year.
Also true of many, many, many other GMs. Including all three reigning GMs Of The Year.

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02-17-2013, 11:55 AM
  #742
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And once again, no one, I don't think, is advocating losing on purpose on the ice.
I shouldn't name names, so I won't. But suffice to say it sure doesn't look that way to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
If it leads to a better record now so be it but at least we aren't the ones trading picks for over the hill vets who help us get the 7th-12th pick.
I'm sorry, where did this come from?

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02-17-2013, 12:07 PM
  #743
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Also true of many, many, many other GMs. Including all three reigning GMs Of The Year.
Can't say our past GM has hit on any potential star yet like those top Gms. Sure we have some keepers but until they develop into stars, I'm not giving Howson a pass.

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02-17-2013, 12:27 PM
  #744
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I'm surprised this many people are advocating tanking/stripping the team down given all the complaining about the losing culture over the years.

Not that it really matters that much. This team is perfectly capable of drafting 1st/2nd overall on its own.

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02-17-2013, 12:29 PM
  #745
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Much of this argument is academic. With the team we have and the limited talent on it, we really don't have to try to lose games. Losing comes pretty easy and natural when you lack the basic level of talent necessary to compete day to day in the NHL. Effort is important. But a bunch of hard working, limited talent guys, are going to finish pretty darn close to the bottom. "Trying" to tank is irrelevant.

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02-17-2013, 12:30 PM
  #746
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Well, if you think we have to do everything we can to stop losing, we should immediately trade for Luongo. Whatever it takes, right? He'd fix the gaoltending situation.
Then we need 2-3 solid, top 6 scorers.

With three first round draft picks and guys like Murray and Johansen, I'm sure we could make those trades right now and turn the season around. So, why don't we do that so that everyone can be happy we did literally everything we could to try and win the rest of these games? To do otherwise would be dishonorable, right?
Can't tell if sarcastic or not.

Trading for Luongo now would kill our depth, we have to build upon what we already have. We have two goaltenders with potential, a loaded back end with potential oozing out, and absolutely bare bones offense with the exception of a few players. We have depth that we need to add onto, not trade away. Making a move for Luongo would be another "quick fix" Howson-esk move.

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02-17-2013, 12:40 PM
  #747
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Its nonsense to think elite players are mostly found in the first couple picks. The last certain HOF'r to retire (Lidstrom) was drafted in the 3rd round. And its nonsense to advocate losing for top draft picks.
1989 isn't really comparable. European scouting was in its infancy, and there were bizarre restrictions on European draftees that absolutely defied logic.

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02-17-2013, 12:46 PM
  #748
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This team is perfectly capable of drafting 1st/2nd overall on its own.
This.

Debate it all you want, but this team is a team that was/is built for a rebuild. Typically, when teams are ready to break down and start over, they do so by sending away any talent of value (ie, Rick Nash), bringing back depth/role players (Dubinsky, Foligno), youth (Erixon, Anisimov), and stocking up on depth overall.

What this results in is a team that works hard, doesn't fold, yet doesn't have the skill/talent to win games every night. This is exactly the environment that will get you top draft picks, yet also make them bust their tails to make the team.

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02-17-2013, 12:51 PM
  #749
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What I don't understand is why theoretical moves that hurt us in the immediate but would help us in the long run are automatically demonized as tanking. We have to take the long view on this team, and stop worrying about the immediate team. They suck, they try hard which has been something we haven't seen in a while, but they suck. We need to focus on the future.

I understand those who want to tank. Right now the only player in the entire history of the blue jackets (Murray and Johansen excluded) that has become a legitimate first line player (let alone star) is the guy we picked #1 overall. It is literally the only pick that has panned out for us. However, this is a new (and significantly better) front office than any we have had that will hopefully change our draft and player development for the better.

It is undeniable that bad luck and bad management have kept us from getting elite talent at the top of the draft. Mostly because we have been "too good" at the end of the year when games don't matter in the grand scheme of things. Management didn't have the stones to acknowledge that we sucked and needed a full rebuild therefore we remained stuck in the 4-8 spot. New management has been very upfront that this will not be the case going forward, they are committed to building through the draft

The other issue has been "bad drafting" as a result of bad scouting and bad prospect development. We as well as the majority of teams miss guys every year (shea weber in the second round and a million other examples). Still our scouting has been historically bad and has resulted in us drafting alot of highly talented head cases (Fliatov, Zherdev, etc.). We also have to factor in a significant amount of our 1st rounders have been the victim of injuries (Picard, Brassard) or bad development (Brule). With an emphasis on scouting brought by JK we should be able to find the balance between attitude and skill that results in superstar players.


Hopefully JD's addition of JK at the top of the organization is the change we have been hoping for and our player selection and development will improve to the point that people no longer will feel we need to "tank" to get a first line player.

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02-17-2013, 01:09 PM
  #750
postalpez
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So, who do we take with the first pick?

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