It's part the job of the trainer, but also the state of older horses. Graydar wasn't a long-shot upset winner, he was 5/1 G1 winner the first time he tries a graded stakes event, beating horses who are 7 and 8. Full disclosure: I did pick him.
True. The line maker had him at 5/1 as well.
Still in all.
I'm not suggesting anything. But traditional handicapping weighs against a horse doing several things he's never done before, like going an added furlong, around two turns, against some good horses.
You need to make your selections up front to be taken seriously chief.
Last edited by Valrico Gold: 02-12-2013 at 07:46 PM.
The road to the 2013 Kentucky Derby moves back to Hot Springs, Arkansas for Monday's Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (Post Time: 6;09 pm ET; TV: HRTV) at a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Will Take Charge, winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn last month, leads a field of ten in the Southwest, along with runner-up Texas Bling and show horse Always in a Tiz.
Below is look at the entries and post positions for the Southwest Stakes (morning odds will be added when released), along with a quick look at each of the horses in the field.
I like Always in a Tiz to turn the tables on Will Take Charge, although neither has gone the added 1/16.
Fear The Kitten has gone this far and is a live longshot.
Baffert ships in with unknown Super Ninety Nice.
Re-evaluating the race.
Baffert shipped in to win both split divisions of the race last year.
Super Ninety Nice certainly qualifies to wire these.
Always in a Tiz was well past Will Take Charge after the finish in the Smarty Jones, should handle the extra 1/16th. The latter picks up 7 lbs for the race.
Fear The Kitten can pick up the pieces should the top 2 falter.
I didn't catch this weekend's races, I'll watch the replays.
Oaklawn extended the Southwest this year, previously was a mile run. Baffert's done well here, last year was 4-for-4 with three year olds. Will Take Charge and Super Ninety Nine both have Unbridled's Song in their pedigrees. Interest is piqued.
Oaklawn extended the Southwest this year, previously was a mile run. Baffert's done well here, last year was 4-for-4 with three year olds. Will Take Charge and Super Ninety Nine both have Unbridled's Song in their pedigrees. Interest is piqued.
Baffert does it again. Super Ninety Nine dominated, very easy victory. Will Take Charge never fired on the wet surface.
Super Ninety Nine, an impressive winner at Santa Anita in his last start, went to post as the odds-on even-money favorite and proceeded to steamroll the field of the Southwest Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion. Long shots Fear the Kitten and Heaven's Runway rallied to finish second and third, respectively, but Super Ninety Nine was never in danger of losing after the half mile mark.
A thunderstorm thirty minutes before post time tuned the Oaklawn main track into a sea of slop, a change in conditions that appeared to suit Officer Alex, Always in a Tiz and Big Lute, three horses with good wet track pedigrees and/or prior races over similar surfaces. But all three of those colts found themselves looking at Super Ninety Nine's backside the entire way around the Oaklawn course.
For his victory in the Southwest Stakes, Super Ninety Nine earns 10 points towards a spot in the starting gate in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Fear the Kitten earns 4 points, Heaven's Runway gets 2 points, and fourth place finisher Channel Isle picks up a point.
Super Ninety Nine is a three-year-old colt by Pulpit out of a Unbridled's Song mare (Exogenetic), trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Rafael Bejarano
I was surprised to be reminded that the Southwest is only a G3. Thought it would be a G2.
I don't know how the Stakes Committee grades such races but when Smarty Jones won in '04 this race was ungraded.
Right now, Oaklawn has a simple 3-2-1 grade going for the three high-profile races: Southwest, Rebel and Ark. Derby and if you include the new Smarty Jones race it becomes "ungraded-3-2-1" for the four big races.
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RISEN STAR: Post-time will be approximately 5:57 p.m. (ET).
ESPN polled various experts to name their Top Ten. Interestingly, Seth Merrow has Uncaptured number 1. That was my pick earlier in the campaign but he has been injured. Trainer Mark Casse has his pointed for the Spiral and I like that decision; we'll get a better idea if he is a serious contender or not. Uncaptured is 2-for-2 at Churchill. Many experts don't have him ranked which is understandable at this point and because of the setback.
Quote:
About Seth: Seth Merrow is the founder and publisher of the popular horse racing news website Equidaily.com. Merrow is also a host and handicapper on Capital OTB-TV
Earlier, when I mentioned the Florida Derby could be fun, hypothethically we could see: Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary and Shanghai Bobby among the entries.
Last edited by MiamiScreamingEagles: 02-21-2013 at 04:51 PM.
ESPN polled various experts to name their Top Ten. Interestingly, Seth Merrow has Uncaptured number 1. That was my pick earlier in the campaign but he has been injured. Trainer Mark Casse has his pointed for the Spiral and I like that decision; we'll get a better idea if he is a serious contender or not. Uncaptured is 2-for-2 at Churchill. Many experts don't have him ranked which is understandable at this point and because of the setback.
Earlier, when I mentioned the Florida Derby could be fun, hypothethically we could see: Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary and Shanghai Bobby among the entries.
Pretty hard to rate these at this early stage. Their should be some clarity after Saturday, providing there's a dry track for both races.
Here are the PP's for the Risen Star. Looks competitive at first glance.
Violence has to give weight, but is set up perfectly to prompt the pace. Works say ready. Majestic Hussar is bred for distance. He may get brave on the lead. Speak Logistics had a troubled trip in Tampa. Cerro may threaten late.
Normandy Invasion is well regarded. Proud Strike lacks speed, but was an explosive winner over the track. Code West ships in for Baffert, has tactical speed. Mylute is fresh and dangerous. Golden Soul is underrated, works well. Departing is a huge talent. 14 post no help.
^ You don't like Oxbow? 9 and 10 interest me in the Risen Star. Mylute could pose a threat.
I am not yet enamored with Code West, but Garcia-Baffert is always an option.
Oxbow got away soft (1:13) wiring his last. That's not going to happen today. He hasn't shown the ability to close to this point. I don't think he'll make the lead today.
If I was there betting, I'd let the board tell me if Normandy Invasion (#9) is ready.
Orb wins the Fountain of Youth. Another Unbridled family member. Beat Violence in the stretch.
Castellano went after the 1:08 set by Majestic Hussar, exposing Violence to the ground saving, late running Orb.
That's the only way a deep closer wins on this speed oval.
Now that Orb has his 50 pts, the trainer should skip the Fla Derby, and look for a bigger track, where he'll have room to make his late run. The Wood comes to mind.
#8 is the winner at 99-1. He paid $272 to win, so technically 135-1?
Unreal.
Code West finished 2d, Palace 3rd, Oxbow 4th.
The winner Ive Struck A Nerve had a trouble line in his last and should not have been completely ignored.
Normandy Invasion was going well late after a poor start.
Your Oxbow was cleverly held just off, never got any dirt, looked a winner a the 1/16th pole, but faded late.
A 135-1 shot took the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II, VIDEO) Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots Feb. 23, Matthew W. Bryan's Ive Struck a Nerve closing late in the final furlong and catapulting himself onto the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).
The 3-year-old son of Yankee Gentleman earned 50 qualifying points for the Derby with his victory by a nose over Code West while giving trainer J. Keith Desormeaux his first graded stakes win. With 51 points, Ive Struck a Nerve now leads the Kentucky Derby standings followed by Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth (gr. II) winner Orb (50), runner-up Violence (30), 2-year-old champion Shanghai Bobby (24), and Goldencents (24).
