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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXXII - Kessel Run Edition

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Old
02-18-2013, 11:21 AM
  #901
Seatoo
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Nik Antropov for Sweatt and a 3rd IMO. He's 6'6 240 has already played 40 pro games this season/season so he is in mid season form AND he is a left handed shot and can play all 3 forward positions...

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02-18-2013, 11:25 AM
  #902
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Nik Antropov for Sweatt and a 3rd IMO. He's 6'6 240 has already played 40 pro games this season/season so he is in mid season form AND he is a left handed shot and can play all 3 forward positions...
Antro is slow as molasses, he will not fit here. Worse, he would be a pure rental. Pass for me.

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02-18-2013, 11:53 AM
  #903
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This defense is one of the strongest in the league, top to bottom. Unless you get a franchise level Dman via trade, you would be hard pressed to improve upon it. I don't see clear upgrades out there... for a reasonable price anyways.
Right now it's all about figuring out how to get Bieksa going. Edler, Hamhuis, and Garrison are all getting good results (possession or otherwise) out of the minutes they play. Bieksa isn't and is a total trainwreck in all aspects.

Ballard and Tanev have regressed compared to where they were earlier in the season. It's a bit concerning but hopefully it doesn't continue.

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02-18-2013, 12:04 PM
  #904
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Right now it's all about figuring out how to get Bieksa going. Edler, Hamhuis, and Garrison are all getting good results (possession or otherwise) out of the minutes they play. Bieksa isn't and is a total trainwreck in all aspects.

Ballard and Tanev have regressed compared to where they were earlier in the season. It's a bit concerning but hopefully it doesn't continue.
Huh???

I was away for the Minnesota and Dallas games, but last night vs St Louis, Edler was horrendous. Made two solid plays all night. Is handling the puck like a live grenade, cannot defend his off side at all.

I'm going to unequivocally disagree that Bieksa is a train wreck, and how Garrison gets the passing grade, while Bieksa doesn't is shocking to me. I thought they both looked good in the the last two games I was able to watch (Calgary and St Louis).

Also wondering what the measure is of Tanev and Ballard regressing? They still look fine to me.

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02-18-2013, 12:07 PM
  #905
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Huh???

I was away for the Minnesota and Dallas games, but last night vs St Louis, Edler was horrendous. Made two solid plays all night. Is handling the puck like a live grenade, cannot defend his off side at all.

I'm going to unequivocally disagree that Bieksa is a train wreck, and how Garrison gets the passing grade, while Bieksa doesn't is shocking to me. I thought they both looked good in the the last two games I was able to watch (Calgary and St Louis).

Also wondering what the measure is of Tanev and Ballard regressing? They still look fine to me.
I think people are far too focused on the mistakes instead of the overall picture. It's a matter of which way the play is flowing when they're on the ice. Bieksa has by far the worst possession numbers on the D right now and it has been that way since the beginning of the season.

I'm not going to deny that Edler has had some noteable ****-ups but it's easier to correct those than it is to sway your overall level of play.

Bieksa is riding luck right now. His PDO is 1080, that's ridiculous and not even close to sustainable. When it regresses, with the number of shots and chances he's giving up, he'll quickly find himself losing us games.

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02-18-2013, 12:15 PM
  #906
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Huh???

I was away for the Minnesota and Dallas games, but last night vs St Louis, Edler was horrendous. Made two solid plays all night. Is handling the puck like a live grenade, cannot defend his off side at all.

I'm going to unequivocally disagree that Bieksa is a train wreck, and how Garrison gets the passing grade, while Bieksa doesn't is shocking to me. I thought they both looked good in the the last two games I was able to watch (Calgary and St Louis).

Also wondering what the measure is of Tanev and Ballard regressing? They still look fine to me.
Agreed. I think Bieksa has played fairly well. I'm hoping that Edler can pick up his game again.

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02-18-2013, 12:17 PM
  #907
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I think people are far too focused on the mistakes instead of the overall picture. It's a matter of which way the play is flowing when they're on the ice. Bieksa has by far the worst possession numbers on the D right now and it has been that way since the beginning of the season.

I'm not going to deny that Edler has had some noteable ****-ups but it's easier to correct those than it is to sway your overall level of play.

Bieksa is riding luck right now. His PDO is 1080, that's ridiculous and not even close to sustainable. When it regresses, with the number of shots and chances he's giving up, he'll quickly find himself losing us games.
Can you explain what PDO is, I realize there are metrics in the game, and they can be useful, but for me I don't even know what PDO is, and in reality I see Edler's play on the right side as being very hard to correct. He's awful over there, I'm glad he didn't get $6m+ because our highest paid defensman shouldn't look like that on his off side.

Is there a metric that measures something instead of where you shifts end, but how much of it is in the offensive zone? I mean, ending in the o-zone is all fine and dandy, but if you were stuck in your own zone for 45 seconds of you 60 second shift...how does that tell you anything?

When I watch, I definitely see some imperfections in Bieksa, but to say Hamhuis, Garrison and Edler are miles ahead at this point doesn't pass my eye test (I will say again, I missed the Minnesota and Dallas games, and judging by the results aren't worth wasting my time watching the replay on the pvr).

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02-18-2013, 12:21 PM
  #908
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Can you explain what PDO is, I realize there are metrics in the game, and they can be useful, but for me I don't even know what PDO is, and in reality I see Edler's play on the right side as being very hard to correct. He's awful over there, I'm glad he didn't get $6m+ because our highest paid defensman shouldn't look like that on his off side.

Is there a metric that measures something instead of where you shifts end, but how much of it is in the offensive zone? I mean, ending in the o-zone is all fine and dandy, but if you were stuck in your own zone for 45 seconds of you 60 second shift...how does that tell you anything?

When I watch, I definitely see some imperfections in Bieksa, but to say Hamhuis, Garrison and Edler are miles ahead at this point doesn't pass my eye test (I will say again, I missed the Minnesota and Dallas games, and judging by the results aren't worth wasting my time watching the replay on the pvr).
PDO is the sum of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. It regresses to about a 1000 over a significant enough sample size. Bieksa is at 1080 while Hamhuis and Edler are around 980-ish. Such extremes are usually simply driven by luck.

The problem with Bieksa is that he's right now on the ice for the most shots against of all our D and the 3rd most shots against of all our players. That's a concern going forward when the goaltending stops bailing him out as he's spending most of his time defending rather than driving the play the other way.

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02-18-2013, 12:23 PM
  #909
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Can you explain what PDO is, I realize there are metrics in the game, and they can be useful, but for me I don't even know what PDO is, and in reality I see Edler's play on the right side as being very hard to correct. He's awful over there, I'm glad he didn't get $6m+ because our highest paid defensman shouldn't look like that on his off side.
PDO is basically the sum of a player's on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage. It regresses to 1(00%) over the long term for the vast majority of NHL players.

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Is there a metric that measures something instead of where you shifts end, but how much of it is in the offensive zone? I mean, ending in the o-zone is all fine and dandy, but if you were stuck in your own zone for 45 seconds of you 60 second shift...how does that tell you anything?
Corsi (or Fenwick) plus zone starts/finishes does that. Vic Ferrari showed many years ago that Corsi is an exceptional proxy for zone time. Years ago the league used to track zone time and he compared zone time values to Corsi over that season and found a correlation of 0.9.

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When I watch, I definitely see some imperfections in Bieksa, but to say Hamhuis, Garrison and Edler are miles ahead at this point doesn't pass my eye test (I will say again, I missed the Minnesota and Dallas games, and judging by the results aren't worth wasting my time watching the replay on the pvr).
Bieksa by my eye has been the worst defenceman on the team. I don't think he's taken a big step backwards defensively but I do think his contributions on offense have diminished to the point where they don't overcome his defensive deficiencies.

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02-18-2013, 12:28 PM
  #910
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Bieksa by my eye has been the worst defenceman on the team. I don't think he's taken a big step backwards defensively but I do think his contributions on offense have diminished to the point where they don't overcome his defensive deficiencies.
His overall game is not anywhere near where it has been in the past. He used to make boneheaded mistakes but it was because he was pushing the pace and trying to make things happen. Right now the boneheaded mistakes might not be there as much but it's because he's so passive out there.

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02-18-2013, 12:35 PM
  #911
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PDO is basically the sum of a player's on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage. It regresses to 1(00%) over the long term for the vast majority of NHL players.



Corsi (or Fenwick) plus zone starts/finishes does that. Vic Ferrari showed many years ago that Corsi is an exceptional proxy for zone time. Years ago the league used to track zone time and he compared zone time values to Corsi over that season and found a correlation of 0.9.



Bieksa by my eye has been the worst defenceman on the team. I don't think he's taken a big step backwards defensively but I do think his contributions on offense have diminished to the point where they don't overcome his defensive deficiencies.
Cheers.

Wow, worst defensman on the team, eh? His contributions on offense have diminished, who on this team hasn't had their production diminish?

Edler and Hamhuis have 5 and 4 PP points, at EV strength (where it makes the most sense to make the comparison) Edler has 5, Hamhuis and Bieksa both have 3.

I don't know, I guess I value Bieksa's holding the puck in the zone more than the metrics, by my eyes, he's still the best on the team at that.

Oh well, we're 8-3-3 and if you asked 100 canucks fans, they'd probably be pretty evenly split on the most disapointing defensman so far this season.

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02-18-2013, 12:36 PM
  #912
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PDO is the sum of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. It regresses to about a 1000 over a significant enough sample size. Bieksa is at 1080 while Hamhuis and Edler are around 980-ish. Such extremes are usually simply driven by luck.

The problem with Bieksa is that he's right now on the ice for the most shots against of all our D and the 3rd most shots against of all our players. That's a concern going forward when the goaltending stops bailing him out as he's spending most of his time defending rather than driving the play the other way.
Okay, enough with this. Players (excepting goalies) bring a skill-set to a team. Looking at the Canucks' defense, there is only one player with a multi-dimensional skill set - Bieksa. He has both offensive talents, and he's tough to play against. The rest of the Canucks' D are one dimensional players. We see them as either an offensive player, or a defensive player, but none of the others has the physical 'edge' of Bieksa. Therefore, when that one aspect of their game does not out weigh their deficiencies, they appear to be hurting the team. (and they are!)

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02-18-2013, 12:42 PM
  #913
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Wow, worst defensman on the team, eh? His contributions on offense have diminished, who on this team hasn't had their production diminish?

Edler and Hamhuis have 5 and 4 PP points, at EV strength (where it makes the most sense to make the comparison) Edler has 5, Hamhuis and Bieksa both have 3.
Not necessarily in terms of production but instead being a guy that catalyzes the offense by getting the puck moving out of the defensive zone efficiently and smartly joining the rush.

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Okay, enough with this. Players (excepting goalies) bring a skill-set to a team. Looking at the Canucks' defense, there is only one player with a multi-dimensional skill set - Bieksa. He has both offensive talents, and he's tough to play against. The rest of the Canucks' D are one dimensional players. We see them as either an offensive player, or a defensive player, but none of the others has the physical 'edge' of Bieksa. Therefore, when that one aspect of their game does not out weigh their deficiencies, they appear to be hurting the team. (and they are!)
Physical play, like anything else a player does, is not valuable in and of itself - it's valuable to the extent that it helps the team score or prevent goals. Those are the only two things that ultimately determine who wins and loses the game. Describing physical play as the same as those two other things is asinine. It's like saying Patrick Kane is especially valuable because he's a good stickhandler.

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02-18-2013, 01:15 PM
  #914
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I think it's pretty telling that virtually every single player on the team has better possession numbers when they're not playing with Bieksa compared to when they are. The good news is Bieksa's numbers have gotten better since being paired with Garrison so hopefully he's moving in the right direction.

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02-18-2013, 02:07 PM
  #915
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Not necessarily in terms of production but instead being a guy that catalyzes the offense by getting the puck moving out of the defensive zone efficiently and smartly joining the rush.
Physical play, like anything else a player does, is not valuable in and of itself - it's valuable to the extent that it helps the team score or prevent goals. Those are the only two things that ultimately determine who wins and loses the game. Describing physical play as the same as those two other things is asinine. It's like saying Patrick Kane is especially valuable because he's a good stickhandler.
Actually, it's 100% correct to define physical play as part of a player's "toolbox". Would you say that Kassian does not have that as part of his skill-set? Did the Canucks trade Cody Hodgson (a one dimensional player - offense) for a one dimensional player? If that's the case, then Vancouver lost that trade, big time.

Oh, and by the way, stickhandling is part of the offense skill-set, just letting you know.

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02-18-2013, 02:12 PM
  #916
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Bieksa isn't and is a total trainwreck in all aspects.
That's a huge exaggeration.

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Bieksa is riding luck right now. His PDO is 1080, that's ridiculous and not even close to sustainable. When it regresses, with the number of shots and chances he's giving up, he'll quickly find himself losing us games.
There is luck in Corsi too. Garrison was playing the worst of all our defenders imo when he was put with Bieksa. Hansen and Higgins also have poor Corsi numbers... what's up with that? Are you going to blame everyone on the team with a poor Corsi rating on Bieksa? He's the Bozak of our team?

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PDO is the sum of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage. It regresses to about a 1000 over a significant enough sample size. Bieksa is at 1080 while Hamhuis and Edler are around 980-ish. Such extremes are usually simply driven by luck.

The problem with Bieksa is that he's right now on the ice for the most shots against of all our D and the 3rd most shots against of all our players. That's a concern going forward when the goaltending stops bailing him out as he's spending most of his time defending rather than driving the play the other way.
Juice is a slow starter. I say his game rounds out before his luck runs out.
Bieksa has been unlucky in this regard in the past, it's about time it went the other way for him imo.

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Bieksa by my eye has been the worst defenceman on the team. I don't think he's taken a big step backwards defensively but I do think his contributions on offense have diminished to the point where they don't overcome his defensive deficiencies.
That's not fair given how much tougher the minutes he plays are then some of our other D. He was also tasked with playing with Garrison, who was struggling the most of all our D before being put with Bieksa.


Last edited by Scurr: 02-18-2013 at 03:18 PM. Reason: terrible english
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02-18-2013, 02:19 PM
  #917
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Not necessarily in terms of production but instead being a guy that catalyzes the offense by getting the puck moving out of the defensive zone efficiently and smartly joining the rush.



Physical play, like anything else a player does, is not valuable in and of itself - it's valuable to the extent that it helps the team score or prevent goals. Those are the only two things that ultimately determine who wins and loses the game. Describing physical play as the same as those two other things is asinine. It's like saying Patrick Kane is especially valuable because he's a good stickhandler.
Agree with the bold. The problem is how do you measure whether physical play helps or prevents goals. The impact of having a more physical player and team may be felt throughout the lineup rather than simply on that individual player's numbers. That i swhy in my view stats are a good starting point but don't show the complete picture in all cases.
One of Bieksa's biggest strengths, IMO, like Burrows, is to provide a goal or assist at key times in a game or playoff series. I suspect that this is something that can be measured statistically.

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02-18-2013, 02:21 PM
  #918
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Actually, it's 100% correct to define physical play as part of a player's "toolbox". Would you say that Kassian does not have that as part of his skill-set? Did the Canucks trade Cody Hodgson (a one dimensional player - offense) for a one dimensional player? If that's the case, then Vancouver lost that trade, big time.

Oh, and by the way, stickhandling is part of the offense skill-set, just letting you know.
But being physical or good at stickhandling if it doesn't actually lead to any positive results is kind of useless, especially when you're logging a lot of minutes. The Canucks wanted Kassian because they hope he can dominate physically and create room for his linemates which will lead to shots and goals.

There's something to be said for a wrecking ball type player on the 4th line who'll soften up the opposition and whose effect isn't necessarily felt on the scoreboard, but Bieksa being on the smaller side for a defenseman certainly isn't one of those guys. If his poor shot differential and possession numbers start to lead to a bunch of goals against then his other attributes aren't going to be much comfort.

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02-18-2013, 02:25 PM
  #919
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Agree with the bold. The problem is how do you measure whether physical play helps or prevents goals. The impact of having a more physical player and team may be felt throughout the lineup rather than simply on that individual player's numbers. That i swhy in my view stats are a good starting point but don't show the complete picture in all cases.
One of Bieksa's biggest strengths, IMO, like Burrows, is to provide a goal or assist at key times in a game or playoff series. I suspect that this is something that can be measured statistically.
You measure physical play by how many goals the other team scores. How many goals did the Canucks (Sedins) score in the Cup finals against Boston, especially as the games became more physical. Players who have a physical presesnce make a huge impact on a game, and especially a playoff series. The Canucks would be served well by getting a defense-man who plays like Bieksa, but is bigger.

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02-18-2013, 02:27 PM
  #920
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But being physical or good at stickhandling if it doesn't actually lead to any positive results is kind of useless, especially when you're logging a lot of minutes. The Canucks wanted Kassian because they hope he can dominate physically and create room for his linemates which will lead to shots and goals.

There's something to be said for a wrecking ball type player on the 4th line who'll soften up the opposition and whose effect isn't necessarily felt on the scoreboard, but Bieksa being on the smaller side for a defenseman certainly isn't one of those guys. If his poor shot differential and possession numbers start to lead to a bunch of goals against then his other attributes aren't going to be much comfort.
Bieksa is forced to play a role he' not physically suited for. Another D-man, who plays like Bieksa, but is bigger, would be ideal. Then we would see Bieksa be able to play a more #2 pair role, where he is best suited.

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02-18-2013, 02:30 PM
  #921
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Bieksa is forced to play a role he' not physically suited for. Another D-man, who plays like Bieksa, but is bigger, would be ideal. Then we would see Bieksa be able to play a more #2 pair role, where he is best suited.
He's already playing a #2 pair role. Edler and Hamhuis are the top shutdown pairing. Edler has as many hits and 1.5x the blocked shots.

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02-18-2013, 02:34 PM
  #922
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I think we need to change up our pairings soon.

Edler Tanev
Hamhuis Bieksa
Ballard Garrison

Garrison is such a terrible signing if he doesn't play better.

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02-18-2013, 02:40 PM
  #923
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You measure physical play by how many goals the other team scores.

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02-18-2013, 02:41 PM
  #924
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I think we need to change up our pairings soon.

Edler Tanev
Hamhuis Bieksa
Ballard Garrison

Garrison is such a terrible signing if he doesn't play better.
I knew this was going to happen.
/pats self on back

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02-18-2013, 02:43 PM
  #925
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I wouldn't mind finding a new defensive coach. (and while we're at it let's also replace AV and Brown)

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