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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXXII - Kessel Run Edition

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Old
02-18-2013, 04:15 PM
  #951
arsmaster
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Originally Posted by shortshorts View Post
I disagree. Edler is averaging 25TOI+, and doing more than adequate on his offside.
23:41 actually, and 5 of it is on the PP.

He's the #1 PP minute d-man by almost a minute and a half over Hamhuis.

At EV strength the top 4 minutes are all within 22 seconds of eachother, and Tanev being the low man is only a mere 1:34 behind the leader (ie. two shifts).

Edler is also only 3rd on the SH time on ice/game (albeit only 4 seconds behind Bieksa.

Adequate is not what I want to see from our #1 guy.
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Originally Posted by BerSTUzzi View Post
Ignore how Tyler Myers is playing right now but would you trade Edler for Myers?
No.

Even though he is a righty, I think Edler is a much better player now, and likely will be.

Myers is a gentle giant.

Also more expensive.

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02-18-2013, 04:17 PM
  #952
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
How many comebacks?
Wouldn't need to come back if you hold the lead in the first place....

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02-18-2013, 04:20 PM
  #953
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Wouldn't need to come back if you hold the lead in the first place....
So we should take the lead in every game and never give it up. Realistic.

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Old
02-18-2013, 04:20 PM
  #954
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Not being able to afford a player is different than lamenting his salary because he's on the 3rd pair. I'm inclined to keep him if he keeps getting better for what it's worth. If you're looking to win shot differential 5 on 5 having a really good third pairing is a great way to do it.
If we can't afford Ballard who is playing extremely well now, how can we afford a more expensive Garrison who will also be playing on the 3rd pair?

Remember I'm assuming the Edler RS isn't going to work out

I think it was poor pro scouting if we thought Garrison played on the RS, or a terrible decision to play Edler on the RS.

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02-18-2013, 04:24 PM
  #955
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Originally Posted by shortshorts View Post
If we can't afford Ballard who is playing extremely well now, how can we afford a more expensive Garrison who will also be playing on the 3rd pair?

Remember I'm assuming the Edler RS isn't going to work out

I think it was poor pro scouting if we thought Garrison played on the RS, or a terrible decision to play Edler on the RS.
Edler has been as good or better on the RS as he was on the LS last year. The stats speak to this.

Garrison has played really well the last few games and he'll keep getting better. Calling out the pro-scouting after 15 games is ridiculous.

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02-18-2013, 04:25 PM
  #956
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
So we should take the lead in every game and never give it up. Realistic.
because thats what I meant...


We wouldn't need to come back in games if we could hold these 2 goal leads that we've been giving up.

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02-18-2013, 04:36 PM
  #957
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Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
because thats what I meant...


We wouldn't need to come back in games if we could hold these 2 goal leads that we've been giving up.
You blame coaching for losing last night?

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02-18-2013, 04:39 PM
  #958
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Edler has been as good or better on the RS as he was on the LS last year. The stats speak to this.

Garrison has played really well the last few games and he'll keep getting better. Calling out the pro-scouting after 15 games is ridiculous.
Regular ones, or advanced ones?

I could care less, when it seems he handles the puck like a grenade at times, when his passes are inaccurate, when it seems every play he makes is rushed, I wouldn't say he's as good or better.

Last season was a tail of two seasons for most of the team, it's why Edler was on a 60 point pace in the first half and a 30 point pace in the 2nd half.

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02-18-2013, 04:39 PM
  #959
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I disagree with this. I've often heard a guy was really good defensively and has a great shot. Saying someone is really good defensively assumes certain skills in the toolbox, saying someone has a great shot is a good way of describing their offensive game. Even the omission of other offensive skills says something imo.

Saying someone brings offence assumes the shot, no need to say it. Physical play is without the puck, so that wouldn't be included the analysis that someone is a good offensive player.
I don't agree with that. A good offensive player is a player who helps his team score. A good defensive player is someone who stops the other team from scoring. Having a good shot can help you score (directly, by putting up goals) and being physical can help you score (indirectly, for example, by creating screens in front of the net).

To the extent that physical play is irrelevant to scoring or preventing goals, who cares?

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02-18-2013, 04:41 PM
  #960
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So we should take the lead in every game and never give it up. Realistic.
Canucks are bottom 15 in win% when leading at the end of periods.

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02-18-2013, 04:43 PM
  #961
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Canucks are bottom 15 in win% when leading at the end of periods.
Well in fairness there's a 30 way tie in win% when leading at the end of 3 periods.

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02-18-2013, 04:45 PM
  #962
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Edler has been as good or better on the RS as he was on the LS last year. The stats speak to this.

Garrison has played really well the last few games and he'll keep getting better. Calling out the pro-scouting after 15 games is ridiculous.
Totally agree. People see Edler making mistakes and blame it on the switch to the right side. He made these exact same mistakes last year playing on the left. The notion that he'll somehow become infallible if shifted back to the left is bemusing.

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02-18-2013, 04:53 PM
  #963
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
You blame coaching for losing last night?
Last night?

No.

However we've had what? 5 or so blown 2 goal leads so far this season? Can't all be on the players. I personally think things would be better if we had a different defense coach.

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02-18-2013, 04:56 PM
  #964
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Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
Last night?

No.

However we've had what? 5 or so blown 2 goal leads so far this season? Can't all be on the players. I personally think things would be better if we had a different defense coach.
What do you think will change?

I'm not sure changing our coaches will stop the other team from scoring goals...they have coaches too.

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02-18-2013, 05:00 PM
  #965
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
Totally agree. People see Edler making mistakes and blame it on the switch to the right side. He made these exact same mistakes last year playing on the left. The notion that he'll somehow become infallible if shifted back to the left is bemusing.
I don't know if I ever saw him get walked in his career as badly as he has been this season. Multiple times too. Saad and Eberle just embarrassed him.

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02-18-2013, 05:00 PM
  #966
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Originally Posted by shortshorts View Post
If we can't afford Ballard who is playing extremely well now, how can we afford a more expensive Garrison who will also be playing on the 3rd pair?

Remember I'm assuming the Edler RS isn't going to work out

I think it was poor pro scouting if we thought Garrison played on the RS, or a terrible decision to play Edler on the RS.
I think you're too focused on pairings. Ballard's problem wasn't that he was too expensive for the 3rd pairing; it's that he was terrible and bordering on unplayable in even the most sheltered roles. He was about as effective as Andrew Alberts at 4 times the cost and was outplayed by Rome.

If Garrison does find himself in the 3rd pairing at ES, it's not the end of the world. So far this season the Canucks are fairly equal in terms of ice time among their defense at ES with only 1:30 separating #1 Bieksa from #6 Tanev. If Garrison got Ballard's ES minutes with his own special teams ones he'd be a 21 minute a night defenseman which is basically exactly what was expected.

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02-18-2013, 05:00 PM
  #967
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
Last night?

No.

However we've had what? 5 or so blown 2 goal leads so far this season? Can't all be on the players. I personally think things would be better if we had a different defense coach.
I'm not sure I'd blame it on the coaches but it is becoming a bit of a trend, especially giving up two goal leads. The last few years we've been pretty good going into the third with a lead. That's something the team needs to work on, IMO. We've been bailed out by our goalies a few times now as well. Early days but something that needs to get better for sure.

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Old
02-18-2013, 05:02 PM
  #968
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Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
because thats what I meant...


We wouldn't need to come back in games if we could hold these 2 goal leads that we've been giving up.
We've got a long history with this staff of being a very good to great defensive team and not giving up leads. You're taking an anomaly and using it to grind your axe.

Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Regular ones, or advanced ones?

I could care less, when it seems he handles the puck like a grenade at times, when his passes are inaccurate, when it seems every play he makes is rushed, I wouldn't say he's as good or better.

Last season was a tail of two seasons for most of the team, it's why Edler was on a 60 point pace in the first half and a 30 point pace in the 2nd half.
Both advanced and regular stats. I agree, last year was a tale of two halves. Why would we compare Edler to the guy we saw at the beginning of last season rather than the one we saw most recently? Clearly Edler was suffering from the same things at the end of last season on the left side as he is now.

Players struggle. Bieksa isn't playing great either and he's on the same side. When the errors and play are so similar to what we've most recently seen from Edler I don't think it makes sense to blame it on him being on the offside.


Last edited by Scurr: 02-18-2013 at 05:10 PM.
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02-18-2013, 05:10 PM
  #969
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
To the extent that physical play is irrelevant to scoring or preventing goals, who cares?
Who says it's irrelevant? When someone isn't scoring is it irrelevant that they have a great shot? Bieksa's physical play is an asset to the team when he's playing well defensively in the same way Kesler's shot is an asset when he's playing well offensively.

Agree to disagree.

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02-18-2013, 05:22 PM
  #970
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Originally Posted by Nuckles37 View Post
I wouldn't mind finding a new defensive coach. (and while we're at it let's also replace AV and Brown)
I've been thinking we should definitely find a replacement for Bones at the very least, when you consider how complicated the system is and how it always takes so long for other D to adjust when coming here. Factor that in with the amount of injuries we always seem to have on D and...

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Old
02-18-2013, 05:33 PM
  #971
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I realize it'll be a small sample and all, but how do Edler's underlying numbers so far compare to last year's?

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02-18-2013, 05:41 PM
  #972
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Who says it's irrelevant? When someone isn't scoring is it irrelevant that they have a great shot? Bieksa's physical play is an asset to the team when he's playing well defensively in the same way Kesler's shot is an asset when he's playing well offensively.

Agree to disagree.
He's not saying it's irrelevant -- he's saying that there are two objectives: to score, and to stop the other team from scoring.

He's not disagreeing that being physical is positive, just that it isn't the main purpose of the game (i.e. we should only be interested in being physical to the extent that it helps us with the two main objectives). So we should separate physicality from those two, and put it with other skills that help us win a game (i.e. passing, shooting, etc.)

That's not to say being physical doesn't indirectly change the game even when you aren't directly preventing or scoring goals due to physicality (i.e. teams are less likely to enter high-scoring areas against a physical team, or are more likely to make errors when facing a team that employs a strong forecheck).

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02-18-2013, 06:01 PM
  #973
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
To the extent that physical play is irrelevant to scoring or preventing goals, who cares?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ugghhh View Post
He's not saying it's irrelevant -- he's saying that there are two objectives: to score, and to stop the other team from scoring.

He's not disagreeing that being physical is positive, just that it isn't the main purpose of the game (i.e. we should only be interested in being physical to the extent that it helps us with the two main objectives). So we should separate physicality from those two, and put it with other skills that help us win a game (i.e. passing, shooting, etc.)

That's not to say being physical doesn't indirectly change the game even when you aren't directly preventing or scoring goals due to physicality (i.e. teams are less likely to enter high-scoring areas against a physical team, or are more likely to make errors when facing a team that employs a strong forecheck).
He said exactly that, it's irrelevant if it's not preventing or scoring goals. I don't think that's the case. Is someone's shot irrelevant when it doesn't go in? There is a cumulative nature to these things. The hits and physical play don't always lead to more goals for and less against but over time lead to both.

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02-18-2013, 06:15 PM
  #974
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So...I think we are fine as it is, but if we were to make some moves this season pre-TDL, or at the draft/over summer, we have two directions we can go.

One direction would be strengthening our defensive play. A Orpik/Jackman style shutdown defender, preferibly right handed to get Edler back in position, would be ideal. Adding this this wish list a human wrecking ball, ala Torres, and a third line center ala Pahlsson or Malhotra. With the cap going down, and all of our key players signed for mutlitple years, I think this would be an ideal solution. We send Ballard and Luongo out for these types of players, or futures.

The other side is focusing on PP and offensive output. We haven't been bad in this regard this year, but our PP is sputtering (I think in large part to Kesler being out to start the season), but there are two key pieces I'd want if we go this route: A top flight playmaker, and a RD offensive Dman. The problem is, these pieces are not likely available, at least not cheaply (as in not subtracting from our roster). Also, these pieces are more expensive capwise. The UFA market could be bountiful, or it could net nothing. Packaging Ballard for picks and Luongo for the right pieces could solve one of the player roles I'm proposing we pursue, but to fill both, we need to clear cap, lose (likely) another roster player, and sell some of our futures short.

TL;DR: Between focusing on defensive specialists or offensive specialists, I say we go after defensive players as they will be cheaper, take less to acquire, and if they have the right attributes, AV would use them much more effectively.

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02-18-2013, 06:27 PM
  #975
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
He said exactly that, it's irrelevant if it's not preventing or scoring goals. I don't think that's the case. Is someone's shot irrelevant when it doesn't go in? There is a cumulative nature to these things. The hits and physical play don't always lead to more goals for and less against but over time lead to both.
If their shots never go in and the team doesn't score when they're on the ice, then yes, a player's shot is mostly irrelevant. Just like Ryan Johnson's shot blocking prowess was irrelevant because it did nothing to help the PK (and arguably made it worse).

Physical play is great, but if the end result is you spend a bunch of time in your own zone getting bailed out by your goalie then it's not a useful attribute.

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